HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fawaiq
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Mode 2 ◽  
Variable Mode ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Mode 3

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara Moda 2 dan Moda 3 dalam perdagangan internasional di sektor jasa pariwisata. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. Data yang digunakan adalah data kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) jasa hotel dan restoran tahun 1997-2014 di Bali, Jakarta, Kepulauan Riau dan Sumatera Utara. Daerah-daerah ini berkontribusi sebesar 81,26% dari total kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia dan 68% terhadap total FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas jangka pendek antara kedua variabel tetapi terdapat hubungan jangka panjang satu arah yaitu variabel Moda 3 dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Hasil pengujian pada gabungan antara jangka panjang dan jangka pendek menujukkan bahwa variabel Moda 3 secara kuat dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Dengan demikian diketahui bahwa semakin banyak jumlah wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia maka akan mendorong meningkatnya FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran, tetapi meningkatnya FDI di jasa tersebut tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap masuknya jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. This paper examines the relationship between Mode 2 and Mode 3 of international trade in tourism sector. The method used is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. The data used in this study were the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in some hotels and restaurants during 1997-2014 in Bali, Jakarta, Riau Islands and Nort Sumatera.These regions contributed for 81.26% out of the total tourist arrivals in Indonesia and 68% of the total FDI in the services of hotels and restaurants Indonesia. The results using VECM Granger demonstrated that there was no short-term causality relationship between these two variables but they had a long-term causality relationship that the Moda 3 was affected by the variable mode 2. Test results on a combination of long-term and short-term showed that the variable mode 3 was strongly influenced by variable mode 2. Thus, it is known that the more foreign tourists coming to Indonesia, the more FDI we gained from the service of hotels and restaurants, but this increase does not significantly affect the number of foreign tourists.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals Determinant of The Bitcoin Prices as Alternative Invesment in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Gery Andrean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

The aims of this study to know the determinant that affect bitcoin prices and how bitcoin prices response to the shock from GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, exchange rate, JCI (Jakarta Composite Index. The method that was used in this research was quantitative analysis, with data analysis tools Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Data used in this research was secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia, Bitcoincharts, and Yahoo Finance. The results of this study showed that (1) inflation in short term and in long term has negative significant effect on bitcoin prices, exchange rate in long term has positive significant effect on bitcoin price. In short term and in the long term GDP and JCI do not have significant effect on bitcoin prices (2) The results of IRF shows bitcoin prices respond negatively shock from GDP and exchange rate, while shock from inflation and JCI responded posifively by bitcoin prices.

scholarly journals RESPON HARGA PRODUSEN TERHADAP PERUBAHAN HARGA KONSUMEN BAWANG MERAH DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Illia Seldon Magfiroh ◽  
Ahmad Zainuddin ◽  
Intan Kartika Setyawati ◽  
Rena Yunita Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Price Change ◽  
High Price ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumer Market ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

High price fluctuations in onions can cause prices at the consumer level to change in a relatively quick time. However, the price change is not necessarily enjoyed by most of the onion farmers. This implies a high marketing margin and low farmer prices. This study aims to analyze the integration of onion consumer market with onion producer market in Indonesia by using VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Monthly onion price data with 48 time series period is used to analyze the onion market integration. The results show that only the consumer market that affects the market of onion producers (one way). There are short-term and long-term market integration between the consumer market and the onion producers. However, changes that occur in the consumer market are not always accepted by the onion producers of the same scale. This shows that the price information of onion in the producer's market is not always transmitted perfectly to the onion producer market.

scholarly journals KETAHANAN PANGAN PENDUDUK DI PULAU JAWA: PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
I made Yoga Prasada ◽  
Moh Wahyudi Priyanto ◽  
Yahya Shafiyuddin Hilmi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Beef Prices

Food security over the past few decades has been a hot topic discussed in Indonesia. Food security can indirectly reflect the level of welfare of a household in a region. Various factors can influence the level of food security, both in the short term and in the long term. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim to find out the factors that influence the food security of the population in the short term and in the long term. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2008-2017, namely data on food and non-food expenditure, real per capita income, agricultural land area, real sugar prices, real beef prices, and real rice prices. The data were analyzed using the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) model. The results showed that in the short-term the factors that influence food security are income per capita real lag 1, real sugar prices lag 1, and real beef prices lag 1, while the factors that influence food security in the long-term are per capita income 1, agricultural area lag 1, real sugar 1 lag price, real beef price lag 1, and real rice price lag 1.

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR HASIL MINYAK DAN IMPOR MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Fadila Arza ◽  
Murtala Murtala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of oil product exports and petroleum imports on the economic growth of Indonesia. This study uses secondary data. The method used to analyze the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables is a dynamic model with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results in the long-term and short-term show that Oil Products Exports have a positive effect on the Economic Growth of Indonesia. In the long-term and short-term, petroleum imports negatively influence the economic growth of Indonesia.Keywords:Oil Product Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Economic Growth

scholarly journals Interactive Relationship among Urban Expansion, Economic Development, and Population Growth since the Reform and Opening up in China: An Analysis Based on a Vector Error Correction Model

Land ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanwei Zhang ◽  
Hualin Xie
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

Based on cointegration analysis, a vector error correction model (VECM), and the impulse response function method, this paper empirically analyses the interaction among urban expansion, economic development, and population growth in China from 1980 to 2016. The results show that (I) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among urban expansion, economic development and population growth, but there is an imbalance in the short term. When urban expansion deviates from the long-term equilibrium, it cannot be restored to equilibrium in the short term. However, when economic development and population growth deviate from equilibrium, they will adjust back to equilibrium with strengths of −0.1770 and −0.0217, respectively. (II) From the results of the impulse response, there is an interactive statistical relationship between urban expansion, economic development, and population growth; In the short term, both economic development and population growth will cause urban expansion. In the long term, economic development will inhibit urban expansion, and economic development will be less dependent on land. Also, population growth has a long-lasting positive effect on urban expansion. (III) The results of variance decomposition show that urban expansion and economic development were most affected by the structural impact of population growth, and the relative variance contribution (RVC) rate was stable at 29.2% and 42%, respectively. However, economic development contributes the least to the RVC of urban expansion and population growth, and only stabilizes at 12.3% and 8.0% after 30 periods. Finally, the paper proposes that the Chinese government should maintain stable and healthy economic growth and promote sustainable land use in terms of improving land use efficiency, improving human capital levels, and promoting industrial structure.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF JAPANESE TOURIST DEMAND TO BALI USING CO-INTEGRATION TEST AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Ni Luh Putu Suciptawati ◽  
M Sianipar
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Integration Test

This study was aimed to figure out of the long term and short term correlation between -tourism price and tourist income to the tourism demand of Japanese to Bali. Quarterly data from 2003-2016 were analyzed by cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result showed that there were both long term and short term balance among research variables. At long term, the tourist income has a positive influence on tourism demand and on the other hand the tourism price has a negative one. Meanwhile at the short term the tourist income has a negative influence on the tourism demand.

scholarly journals FAKTOR EKSTERNAL DAN INTERNAL KREDIT BERMASALAH PADA BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT PERIODE 2005-2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
pp. 34-47
Author(s):  
Ladi Wajuba Perdini
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
External Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of internal and external variables on the non performing loanin the shorterm and longterm session. This study used quantitatve approach applying analysis of vector error correction model (VECM). The research object was the conventional Bank for Community Credit (BPR) in Indonesia. Monthly reports data were used within 2005 to 2014.  The rsults show that a sugnificant relationship exists on external and internal factors towards the non-performance loan in the long-term services; in the short term services, a significat impact comes from inflatin, rate interest and Loan to Deposit Ratio.  The most significant impact for the internal factors appear from BOPO, LDR and interest rate.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Jordan Using Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Rami Obeid ◽  
Bassam Awad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis emphasized the important role of the prudent monetary policy in supporting economic growth through maintaining price stability. The monetary policy operational framework that was designed in 2008 was updated to include more instruments for managing monetary policy learning from the crisis lessons. Several studies analyzed various dimensions related to economic growth in Jordan such as Abdul-Khaliq, Soufan, and Abu Shihab (2013) and Assaf (2014), there were no studies that investigated the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Jordan, at least recently, however. The study aims at measuring the effect of monetary policy instruments on the performance of Jordanian economy. Using quarterly data covering the period (2005-2015), an econometric model was examined using Vector Error Correction Model to assess the impact of monetary policy instruments on economic growth. The foremost advantage of VECM is that it has a nice interpretation of long-term and short-term equations. The results showed the existence of positive long-term and short-term effects of monetary policy instruments on the growth of real GDP. The model included three monetary policy instruments besides money supply. They are required reserve ratio, rediscount rate and overnight interbank loan rates as independent variables, and the real GDP growth as a dependent variable. The stationarity of the model time series was addressed. In addition, the stability of the model was tested using stability diagnostics tools. The results showed also an existence of inverse relationship between rediscount rate and economic growth in Jordan over both long and short terms.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

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