scholarly journals A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1813-1831 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Rolinski ◽  
A. Rammig ◽  
A. Walz ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
M. van Oijen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Abstract. Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

The Assessment of the Refurbished Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Point of the Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 899 ◽  
pp. 440-445
Author(s):  
Sára Hrabovszky-Horváth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Changes in climate have various impacts on the built environment: e.g. the building design and the materials together with the operation and the maintenance. Therefore, it is extremely important to account for the future weather conditions during both the design of new buildings and the renovation of existing buildings. According to the Hungarian meteorological researches as a consequence of the global warming the climate of Hungary is going to become warmer and drier as well as the number and the intensity of the extreme weather events is expected to grow. One of the main directions of actions in the Climate Change Strategy is the adaptation to the changing circumstances, the improvement of the adaptive capacity of the built environment. In this study, the prefabricated reinforced concrete large-panel residential buildings are analysed: a bottom-up methodology was developed based on typological approach to assess the vulnerability of the ‘panel buildings’ to climate change by analysing the extreme weather events. After assessing the sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the determined building types, their vulnerability to the increased number of windstorms and extreme rainfalls was estimated and the influence of their refurbishment was analysed.

scholarly journals A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to extreme events: the ecosystem perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 10167-10202
Author(s):  
S. Rolinski ◽  
A. Rammig ◽  
A. Walz ◽  
K. Thonicke ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Meteorological Condition ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Abstract. Extreme meteorological events are most likely to occur more often with climate change, leading to a further acceleration of climate change through potentially devastating effects on terrestrial ecosystems. But not all extreme meteorological events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Unlike most current studies, we therefore focus on pre-defined hazardous ecosystem behaviour and the identification of coinciding meteorological conditions, instead of expected ecosystem damage for a pre-defined meteorological event. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and meteorological conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are, thus, estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We first adapt this generic approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought and high temperatures, with defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12 months period. Further, we show an instructive application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010; and then apply the method on pan-European scale addressing the 1981–2010 period and future projections for 2071–2100, both based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; REMO-SRES A1B for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI index to describe the meteorological condition. They also provide examples for their interpretation in case of vulnerability to drought for Spain with the expected value of the SPEI being 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour, and of non-vulnerability for Northern Germany, where the expected drought index value for hazard observations relates to wetter conditions than for the non-hazard observations. The pan-European assessment shows that significant results could be obtained for large areas within Europe. For 2071–2100 they indicate a shift towards vulnerability to drought, mainly in the central and north-eastern parts of Europe, where negative net biome productivity was not used to be associated with drought. In Southern parts of Europe, considerable vulnerability and risk to drought have been identified already under current conditions; in future, the difference in SPEI between hazardous and non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour as well as the frequency of hazardous ecosystem behaviour will increase further. Vulnerability decreased only for the border region between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, where a change in ecosystem types occurred with less vulnerable plant species in the future. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptional advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical meteorological conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed dataset. Application of the method to empirical time series would be an important next step to test the methods.

Personal Experience, Extreme Weather Events, and Perceptions of Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Borick ◽  
Barry G. Rabe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Weather Events

The factors that determine individual perceptions of climate change have been a focus of social science research for many years. An array of studies have found that individual-level characteristics, such as partisan affiliation, ideological beliefs, educational attainment, and race, affect one’s views on the existence of global warming, as well as the levels of concern regarding this matter. But in addition to the individual-level attributes that have been shown to affect perceptions of climate change, a growing body of literature has found that individual experiences with weather can shape a variety of views and beliefs that individuals maintain regarding climate change. These studies indicate that direct experiences with extreme weather events and abnormal seasonal temperature and precipitation levels can affect the likelihood that an individual will perceive global warming to be occurring, and in some cases their policy preferences for addressing the problem. The emerging literature on this relationship indicates that individuals are more likely to express skepticism regarding the existence of global warming when experiencing below average temperatures or above average snowfall in the period preceding an interview on their views. Conversely, higher temperatures and various extreme weather events can elevate acceptance of global warming’s existence. A number of studies also find that individuals are more likely to report weather conditions such as drought and extreme heat affected their acceptance of global warming when such conditions were occurring in their region. For example, the severe drought that has encompassed much of the western United States between 2005 and 2016 has increasingly been cited by residents of the region as the primary reason for their belief that climate change is occurring. What remains unclear at this point is whether the weather conditions are actually changing opinions regarding climate change or if the preexisting opinions are causing individuals to see the weather events in a manner consistent with those opinions. Notably, the relationship between weather experiences and beliefs regarding climate change appear to be multidirectional in nature. Numerous studies have found that not only do weather experiences shape the views of individuals regarding global warming, but also individuals’ views on the existence of global warming can affect their perceptions of the weather that they have experienced. In particular, recent research has shown that individuals who are skeptical about the existence of global warming are less likely to report the weather recorded in their area accurately than individuals who believe global warming is happening.

The facilities manager preparing for climate change related disaster

Facilities ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 502-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clive M.J. Warren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Disaster Planning ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Weather Events

PurposeClimate change is predicted to have a significant effect on the frequency of extreme weather events and the occurrence of natural disasters. There is a need for facilities managers to mitigate against potential disruption and prepare for future events. Current practice, however, as illustrated by the literature shows that little risk assessment is currently undertaken with few organisations preparing integrated disaster management plans or business continuity plans to help them meet the challenge. This paper aims to describe the current climate change predictions and the likely consequences for building assets in the face of extreme weather events.Design/methodology/approachThe paper was based on literature review of current climate change data and published research and guidance for facilities managers in preparing risk assessment and disaster plans.FindingsThe research reveals that there exists a divergence between current scientific data relating to potential effects of climate change on the built environment and the level of disaster planning and organisational resilience to extreme weather events.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper provides an overview of the recent changes in disaster occurrence and the potential for increasing climate‐related crisis and disasters which have potential to significantly compromise the ongoing use of an organisation's facilities. The paper concludes that facilities managers need to be proactive in their risk assessment and disaster planning.Practical implicationsThe paper highlights the potential for increased climate change‐related natural disasters. Property assets are likely to be significantly impacted and as a consequence facilities disaster plans should address the issue of natural disaster preparedness. Current literature reveals a limited level of disaster planning is occurring.Originality/valueThe paper provides an important link between current climate change predictions, the increasing levels of natural disasters resulting from climate change and the potential for significant disruption to business facilities. The paper builds on earlier research highlighting the potential for climate‐related natural disaster.

scholarly journals Endless November? Citizen Beliefs Concerning Wood As A Construction Material Under Extreme Weather Events

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Vehola ◽  
Elias Hurmekoski ◽  
Katja Lähtinen ◽  
Enni Ruokamo ◽  
Anders Roos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Wood Construction ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract Climate change places great pressure on the construction sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions and to create solutions that perform well in changing weather conditions. In the urbanizing world, wood construction has been identified as one of the opportunities for mitigating these emissions. Our study explores citizen opinions on wood usage as a building material under expected mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at a changing climate and extreme weather events. The data are founded on an internet-based survey material collected from a consumer panel from Finland and Sweden during May–June 2021, with a total of 2015 responses. By employing exploratory factor analysis, we identified similar belief structures for the two countries, consisting of both positive and negative views on wood construction. In linear regressions for predicting these opinions, the perceived seriousness of climate change was found to increase positive views on wood construction but was insignificant for negative views. Both in Finland and Sweden, higher familiarity with wooden multistory construction was found to connect with more positive opinions on the potential of wood in building, e.g., due to carbon storage properties and material attributes. Our findings underline the potential of wood material use as one avenue of climate change adaptation in the built environment. Future research should study how citizens’ concerns for extreme weather events affect their future material preferences in their everyday living environments, also beyond the Nordic region.

scholarly journals Policy options for addressing climate change, with a focus on ecosystem based adaptation: a case study of Guyana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Lilwah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
Adaptation Method ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Close to ninety percent of Guyana‟s population live along a low lying coastal plain, which is below sea level and very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While the national government has not yet developed a comprehensive climate policy, the potential impacts of climate change is considered in several sectoral policies, much of which emphasize mitigation, with little focus on adaptation. This research examined the current priorities for adaptation by a review of the policies within the natural resource sector to identify opportunities for adaptation, especially ecosystem based adaptation. A Diagnostic Adaptation Framework (DAF) was used to help identify approaches to address a given adaptation challenge with regards to needs, measures and options. A survey questionnaire was used to support the policy reviews and identified four key vulnerabilities: coastal floods; sea level rise; drought and extreme weather events. The application of the DAF in selecting an adaptation method suggests the need for more data on drought and extreme weather events. Coastal flooding is addressed, with recognized need for more data and public awareness for ecosystem based adaptation

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