ANALISIS PREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE PADA PERUSAHAAN RITEL TAHUN 2018-2020

<em><span lang="EN-US">The retail sector is one of the sectors affected by the covid-19 pandemic. Giant is one of the hypermarkets that has closed several outlets from 2019 to 2021 permanently closed. This is due to suboptimal financial performance and exacerbated by the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to analyze financial distress predictions in the retail sector. This study uses a sample of retail public sector companies that run hypermarket, superstore and minimarket businesses. The research analysis technique used the original Altman Z-Score model, which was developed in 1968. This study indicates generally companies are in the “safe” zone for 2018 and 2019, except for HERO, which is in the “gray” zone. Furthermore, in 2020, several companies are still in the "safe" zone, except MIDI and RALS shifting to the "gray" zone and even HERO shifting to the "distress" zone. The implications of the results of this study provide information for retail companies to pay attention to their financial conditions so that they can determine long-term strategies to have long business sustainability.</span></em>

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Impak Struktur Modal, Struktur Kepemilikkan dan Karakteristik Perusahaan Terhadap Financial Distress dan Financial Health Perusahaan

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Dharma Andalas ◽

10.47233/jebd.v23i1.199 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 135-149

Author(s):

Ratnawati Raflis ◽

Enny Arita

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Capital Structure ◽

Financial Performance ◽

Ownership Structure ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Financial Health ◽

Z Score ◽

Score Model ◽

The Impact

Corona Virus Pandemic affected the world economy, including Indonesia. Many companies are out of business due to this pandemic.With the background of the conditions mentioned above, the researchers are interested in examining more deeply the variables that determine the level of financial distress and at the same time the financial health of the company. Furthermore, the variables that are used as independent variables and are thought to affect the company's financial performance are capital structure, ownership structure and company characteristics. In assessing financial performance, the Altman Z Score model is used and then to see the impact of the variables that are thought to affect the company's financial performance.The research model used is the Logistic Regression equation.Population and sample are taken from financial data of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Data is taken manually on the website: www.idx.co.id. And the period in this study was taken from 2015-2019. The test results prove that the Capital Structure and Ownership Structure are factors that have a significant influence on the Company's Financial Distress and Financial Health. ABSTRAK Pandemi Virus Corona berimbas pada perekonomian dunia tidak terkecuali pada perekonomian di Indonesia. Banyak perusahaan yang gulung tikar akibat pandemik ini. Dengan berlatar belakang kondisi tersebut diatas maka peneliti tertarik untuk mengkaji lebih dalam menentukkan variabel yang sangat menentukan tingkat Financial Distress dan sekaligus financial health (Kinerja Keuangan) perusahaan. Selanjutnya variabel yang di jadikan variabel independen dan di duga berpengaruh terhadap kinerja keuangan perusahaan adalah struktur modal, struktur kepemilikkan dan Kharakteristik Perusahaan. Dalam menilai kinerja keuangan maka digunakan model Altman Z Score dan selanjutnya untuk melihat dampak variabel yang di duga berpengaruh terhadap kinerja keuangan perusahaan. Model penelitian yang di pakai adalah persamaan Logistic Regression. Model ini kemudian akan di lakukan uji T , Uji F dan Uji Asumsi Klasik sebelum di gunakan dalam melihat signifikasi variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. Populasi dan sampel diambil dari data keuangan perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Data diambil secara manual di website: www.idx.co.id. Periode pada penelitian ini diambilkan data dari tahun 2015-2019. Hasil Pengujian membuktikan bahwa Struktur Modal dan Struktur Kepemilikkan adalah faktor yang sangat berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Financial Distress dan Financial Health Perusahaan.

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The Application of Altman’s Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka

International Journal of Business and Management ◽

10.5539/ijbm.v10n12p269 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 269 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Aloy Niresh J. ◽

Pratheepan T.

Keyword(s):

Sri Lanka ◽

Early Warning ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Safe Zone ◽

Grey Zone ◽

Z Score ◽

Financial Reports ◽

Financial Position ◽

Score Model

Prediction of bankruptcy is crucial as the early warning may change entire complications and may avoid the high cost that is associated with distress. The main purpose of this study is to examine the likelihood of bankruptcy of the firms belonging to the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka. The research used data from the financial reports of seven trading companies for a period of the last five years from 2010 to 2014. Altman’s original (1968) bankruptcy model has been applied in order to classify the companies in various levels of financial position namely safe, grey and distress. Findings reveal that 71% of the companies belonging to the Trading Sector were in financial distress and the rest of whole 29% were in the grey zone. The fact that none of the companies lie under the safe zone highlights that as a whole the sector is in a menace.

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Aplikasi Data Mining Pada Analisis Financial Distress Model Altman z-score Untuk Memprediksi Potensi Kebrangkutan Pada Industri Properti Go-Public Di Indonesia

Jurnal INFORM ◽

10.25139/inform.v4i2.1792 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Billy Montolalu

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Financial Management ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Gray Zone ◽

Z Score ◽

Financial Ratio ◽

Financial Report ◽

Industrial Operations ◽

Report Data ◽

Score Model

Early thought systems are needed in companies to overcome financial difficulties that can challenge industrial operations. Altman Z Score is one model that can be used to predict financial distress in a company by analyzing the company's financial statements. This research was conducted to analyze financial distress in property companies going public using the Altman Z Score model. In this model there are 5 financial ratio indicators that are used to predict financial distress. The financial report data used is the financial statements for 2015-2016 and there are 23 companies. The results of these calculations are then clustered with Fuzzy C-Means in two, namely safe zone and gray zone. Cluster validation testing uses the Silhouetee Index with a validation value of 0.9541 which indicates that the cluster process is valid. The results of this study indicate that there is one company that is included in the cluster gray zone, namely Intiland Development Tbk. Analysis of financial ratios found that the most influential is the variable X3 where the results of profits before tax are very small can affect payment of obligations. So it's easy to bring up financial distress conditions. And for those companies that have been in the gray zone condition, they are expected to be careful in financial management to anticipate financial distress.

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PENERAPAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE DALAM MENGUKUR POTENSI KEBANGKRUTAN (STUDI KASUS PADA PERUSAHAAN PERBANKAN BUMN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2018 & 2019)

Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Bisnis ◽

10.35972/jieb.v7i1.448 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 148-158

Author(s):

Rofinus Leki Rofinus Leki

Keyword(s):

Financial Performance ◽

Performance Improvement ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Safe Zone ◽

The Other ◽

Financial Health ◽

Z Score ◽

Gray Area ◽

Sustainability Research ◽

Score Model

Abstract: This research is a sustainability research, which uses the same non- manufacturing Altman Z-Score model, with the aim of re-examining the financial health sustainability of the four BUMN banks that the author has studied in 2017 and in 2019. The four BUMN banks are Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT, Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PT. The results showed that PT. Bank BTN (Persero) Tbk has a Z-score that has improved in 2018 and 2019, compared to previous years, namely in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Currently PT. Bank BTN (Persero) Tbk., has moved from the potential financial distress into a "gray area" (improving). Meanwhile, the other three BUMN banks are consistently in the gray area category with a Z-score above 1.2 but below a Z-score of 2.9. The results of this study also show that there is a significant financial performance improvement in every BUMN banking company, but has decreased somewhat in 2019 at Bank BNI (Persero), Tbk. PT and Bank BRI (Persero) Tbk.PT. Be expected is that with the continuous and consistent improvement in financial performance, the financial health position of BUMN Banking (Persero) Tbk can immediately move to the "safe zone". Keywords: Financial Health of BUMN Banks, Altman Z-Score Model

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Financial accounting manipulations and bankruptcy likelihood: A study of Nordic banks

10.22495/cgfcisrp13 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shab Hundal ◽

Anne Eskola

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Financial Accounting ◽

Financial Health ◽

Z Score ◽

Broad Perspective ◽

Management Measures ◽

Score Model ◽

High Level ◽

The Impact

The phenomena of accounting manipulations and bankruptcy likelihood have always been a topic of interest among researchers. The key objective of the current study is to examine the impact of fraudulent accounting practices on the likelihood of bankruptcy, and the performance of firms. Beneish M-score model and Jones model have been applied to evaluate earnings quality, whereas the Altman Z-score model has been used to analyze the level of financial distress. Based on the analysis of secondary data collected from 33 Nordic banks for the period 2011–2018, the findings disclose that Z-score of most of the sample banks has been found to be relatively high thus representing their high level of financial health. The study does not rule out potential earnings management measures applied by the sample banks. Furthermore, earnings manipulations increase the bankruptcy likelihood, especially in case of larger banks. The financial data manipulation practices artificially enhance the financial performance of banks, however, in a broad perspective; such manipulations can trigger potential financial distress

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Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure (CSRD) and Financial Distressed Risk (FDR): Does Institutional Ownership Matter?

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su14020742 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 742

Author(s):

Hossein Tarighi ◽

Andrea Appolloni ◽

Ali Shirzad ◽

Abdullah Azad

Keyword(s):

Corporate Social Responsibility ◽

Social Responsibility ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Institutional Ownership ◽

Z Score ◽

Score Model ◽

Csr Disclosure ◽

Corporate Social ◽

Institutional Owners

This study aims to investigate the effect of corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) on financial distressed risk (FDR) among firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). This paper also examines whether there is a negative linkage between institutional ownership as a corporate governance mechanism and corporate bankruptcy. The final research purpose is to analyze if there is a moderating effect of institutional owners on the relationship between CSRD and FDR too. The study sample consists of 200 firms listed on the TSE between 2013 and 2018, and the statistical model is logistic regression. When FDR is assessed under both Article 141 of Iran’s business law and the Altman Z-score model, our results on the main research hypotheses are quite similar. Considering the social and cultural conditions and economic situation of the Iranian market, the results show that firms with a high level of CSR disclosure are not able to make themselves more creditworthy and do not have better access to financing, resulting in more financial insolvency. Our findings confirm institutional shareholders play a vital role in facilitating a firm’s emergence from bankruptcy. The results also demonstrate financial distress risk is less seen among companies with more institutional owners that disclose more CSR information. In other words, since the goals related to CSR are long-term and Iranian institutional investors have a long-term horizon towards the company, the presence of more institutional owners within a firm push managers to provide additional voluntary CSR disclosure so firms can maintain the trust of their shareholders at the highest possible level and prevent financial distress. Our additional analysis indicates there is a positive association between financial leverage and firm failure, whereas the current ratio and ROA are negatively connected with corporate bankruptcy. Finally, when FDR is assessed on the Altman Z-score model, our evidence supports a negative relation between purchase and sale-related party transactions and bankruptcy risk, which is consistent with the efficient transaction hypothesis.

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Light a lamp and look at the stock market

Financial Innovation ◽

10.1186/s40854-021-00232-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Radeef Chundakkadan

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Investor Sentiment ◽

Downside Risk ◽

Bond Yields ◽

Risky Assets ◽

Market Participants ◽

Market Return ◽

The Impact

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the impact of the light-a-lamp event that occurred in India during the COVID-19 lockdown. This event happened across the country, and millions of people participated in it. We link this event to the stock market through investor sentiment and misattribution bias. We find a 9% hike in the market return on the post-event day. The effect is heterogeneous in terms of beta, downside risk, volatility, and financial distress. We also find an increase (decrease) in long-term bond yields (price), which together suggests that market participants demanded risky assets in the post-event day.

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The Impact of Financial Distress, Corporate Governance, and Auditor Switching on Audit Delay

Summer - GATR Journal of Finance and Banking Review ◽

10.35609/jfbr.2021.6.2(4) ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 108-117

Author(s):

Sylvi Angelia ◽

Rizal Mawardi

Keyword(s):

Corporate Governance ◽

Financial Services ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Audit Committee ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Auditor Switching ◽

Analysis Technique ◽

The Impact

Objective – The purpose of this study is to examine the effect between financial distress, corporate governance, auditor switching and audit delay. This research sample using data on a manufacturing company on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Methodology – The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis technique. Findings– The research finding show that financial distress and the size of the audit committee have a significant effect on audit delay, while the concentration of ownership, managerial ownership, change of directors, and auditor switching has no significant effect on audit delay. Second finding explain that consideration for companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange to pay attention to the timeliness of submitting financial reports and independent auditor reports so as not to get sanctions from the Financial Services Authority. Novelty – Our novelty research using the relationship of Financial Distress, Corporate Governance and Auditor Switching on new research model to Audit Delay. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: M41, M42 Keywords: Financial Distress, Corporate Governance, Auditor Switching, Audit Delay

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Analysis of bankruptcy issues at manufacturing companies, sub-sectors of cosmetics and houseappliances registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) year 2015-2017 using Altman Z-score

The Accounting Journal of Binaniaga ◽

10.33062/ajb.v4i01.357 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (01) ◽

pp. 27

Author(s):

Indar Khaerunnisa ◽

Nur Anisa Rahayu

Keyword(s):

Financial Performance ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Manufacturing Companies ◽

Z Score ◽

Marketing Performance ◽

Grey Area ◽

Manufacturing Company ◽

Score Model

This research aims to figure out the level of companies bankruptcy by applying Altman Z-Score at the manufacturing companies registered in the Indonesia Stocks Exchange. The result of the research has indicated that ZScore model is applicable to detect the company’s potential bankruptcy issues, especially manufacturing company subsectors of cosmetics and houseappliances. Altman Z-Score model has classified the companies into three categories; safe, grey area and distress. Based on the result of the research, for the companies which are in the grey area category are suggested to improve their financial performance and to use the benefit of all the assets properly to get the revenue as much as possible. However, for the companies which are in the safe category are suggested to increase their performance, especially marketing performance so that they will receive bigger amount of the revenue, nevertheless, the potential of financial distress can be minimized accordingly. Keywords: manufacturing company, financial distress, Altman Z-Score.

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FINANCIAL CONDITION MODERATED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF AUDIT COMMITTEETOREDUCE EARNINGSMANAGEMENT

Journal of Management and Business ◽

10.24123/jmb.v12i2.21 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Michella Maria Virgine Prayogo ◽

Yie Ke Feliana ◽

Aurelia Carina Christanti Sutanto

Keyword(s):

Earnings Management ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Audit Committee ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Score Test ◽

Z Score ◽

Financial Condition ◽

Activity Frequency ◽

Distressed Firms ◽

The Impact

Some cases of financial fraud invite inquiries about the effectiveness of corporategovernance mechanism in financial distress companies. This study empiricallyexamines whether the financial distress moderate the impact of corporate governancemechanism to earnings management. The sample of this study is manufacturingcompanies listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange for period 2010 -2012. Discretionaryaccruals are used as a proxy for earnings management, while financially distressed andnon-distressed firms are identified based on Altman Z-score test. Corporate governancemechanism is measured by four characteristics of the audit committee, i.e. size (totalnumber of audit committee members), independence (audit committee composition),activity(frequency of audit committee meeting), and expertise (the number of auditcommittee have finance or accounting background).This study finds that (1) financialdistress does not moderate the impact of total members of audit committee to earningsmanagement; (2) financial distress does not moderate the impact of frequency of auditcommittee meeting to earnings management; (3) financial distress does not moderatethe impact of audit committee composition to earnings management; (4)financialdistress moderates the impact of audit committee finance/accounting knowledge toearnings management. These results suggestthat the effectiveness corporate governanceis low, and finance/accounting literacy of audit committee should be alert.Beberapa kasus manipulasi keuangan pada perusahaan yang mengalami kesulitankeuangan mengundang pertanyaan terkait efektifitas mekanisme tata kelola perusahaan.Penelitian ini secara empiris menguji apakah kondisi kesulitan keuangan dapatmemoderasi pengaruh mekanisme tata kelola perusahaan terhadap manajemen laba.Sampel dari penelitian ini adalah perusahaan sektor manufaktur yang terdaftar di BursaEfek Indonesia periode 2010-2012.Discretionary accruals digunakan sebagai proksiuntuk manajemen laba, sedangkan kondisi kesulitan keuangan diidentifikasimenggunakan uji Altman Z-score. Mekanisme tata kelola perusahaan diukur dengan 4karakteristik komite audit, yaitu ukuran (jumlah anggota komite audit), independensi(komposisi komite audit), aktivitas (frekuensi pertemuan komite audit), dan keahlian(jumlah anggota komite audit yang memiliki latar belakang keuangan atau akuntansi).Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa (1) kondisi kesulitan keuangan tidak memoderasipengaruh jumlah anggota komite audit terhadap manajemen laba; (2) kondisi kesulitankeuangan tidak memoderasi pengaruh frekuensi pertemuan komite audit terhadapmanajemen laba; (3) kondisi kesulitan keuangan tidak memoderasi pengaruh komposisikomite audit terhadap manajemen laba; (4) kondisi kesulitan keuangan memoderasi pengaruh jumlah anggota komite audit yang memiliki latar belakang keuangan atauakuntansi terhadap manajemen laba. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa efektifitas tatakelola perusahaan masih rendah dan anggota komite audit yang memiliki latar belakangkeuangan atau akuntansi harus mewaspadainya.

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