scholarly journals SutteARIMA: A Novel Method for Forecasting the Infant Mortality Rate in Indonesia

2022 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 6007-6022
Author(s):  
Ansari Saleh Ahmar ◽  
Eva Boj del Val ◽  
M. A. El Safty ◽  
Samirah AlZahrani ◽  
Hamed El-Khawaga
Author(s):  
Desfira Ahya ◽  
Inas Salsabila ◽  
Miftahuddin

Angka Kematian Bayi/ Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) merupakan indikator penting dalam mengukur keberhasilan pengembangan kesehatan. Nilai IMR juga dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui tingkat kesehatan ibu, kondisi kesehatan lingkungan dan secara umum, tingkat pengembangan sosio-ekonomi masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model IMR terbaik menggunakan tiga pendekatan: Model Linear, Model Linear Tergeneralisir dan Model Aditif Tergeneralisir dengan basis P-spline. Sebagai tambahan, berdasarkan model tersebut akan terlihat variabel yang mempengaruhi tingkat kematian bayi di provinsi Aceh. Penelitian ini menggunakan data jumlah kematian bayi di tahun 2013-2015. Data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari Profil Kesehatan Aceh. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik dalam menjelaskan angka kematian bayi di provinsi Aceh tahun 2013-2015 ialah Model Linear Tergeneralisir dengan basis P-spline menggunakan parameter penghalusan 100 dan titik knots 8. Faktor yang sangat mempengaruhi angka kematian ialah jumlah pekerja yang sehat.   Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important indicator in measuring the success of health development. IMR also can be used to knowing the level of maternal health, environmental health conditions and generally the level of socio-economic development in community. This research aims to get the best model of infant mortality data using three approaches: Linear Model, Generalized Linear Model and Generalized Additive Model with Penalized Spline (P-spline) base. In addition, based on the model can be seen the variables that affect to infant mortality in Aceh Province. This research uses data number of infant mortality in Aceh Province period 2013-2015. The data in this research were obtained from Aceh’s Health Profile. The results show that the best model can be explain infant mortality rate in Aceh Province period 2013-2015 is GAM model with P-spline base using smoothing parameter 100 and knots 8. Factor that high effect to infant mortality is number of health workers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Kok Wooi Yap ◽  
Doris Padmini Selvaratnam

This study aims to investigate the determinants of public health expenditure in Malaysia. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran & Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied to analyse annual time series data during the period from 1970 to 2017. The study focused on four explanatory variables, namely per capita gross domestic product (GDP), healthcare price index, population aged 65 years and above, as well as infant mortality rate. The bounds test results showed that the public health expenditure and its determinants are cointegrated. The empirical results revealed that the elasticity of government health expenditure with respect to national income is less than unity, indicating that public health expenditure in Malaysia is a necessity good and thus the Wagner’s law does not exist to explain the relationship between public health expenditure and economic growth in Malaysia. In the long run, per capita GDP, healthcare price index, population aged more than 65 years, and infant mortality rate are the important variables in explaining the behaviour of public health expenditure in Malaysia. The empirical results also prove that infant mortality rate is significant in influencing public health spending in the short run. It is noted that macroeconomic and health status factors assume an important role in determining the public health expenditure in Malaysia and thus government policies and strategies should be made by taking into account of these aspects.


2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. 129-141
Author(s):  
Mr. Y. EBENEZER

                   This paper deals with economic growth and infant mortality rate in Tamilnadu. The objects of this paper are to test the relationship between Per capita Net State Domestic Product and infant mortality rate and also to measure the impact of Per capita Net State Domestic Product on infant mortality rate in Tamil Nadu. This analysis has employed the ADF test and ARDL approach. The result of the study shows that IMR got reduced and Per capita Net State Domestic Product increased during the study period. This analysis also revealed that there is a negative relationship between IMR and the economic growth of Tamilnadu. In addition, ARDL bound test result has concluded that per capita Net State Domestic Product of Tamilnadu has long run association with IMR.


Geographies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-62
Author(s):  
Ujjwal Das ◽  
Barkha Chaplot ◽  
Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla

Skilled birth attendance and institutional delivery have been advocated for reducing maternal, neonatal mortality and infant mortality (NMR and IMR). This paper examines the role of place of delivery with respect to neo-natal and infant mortality in India using four rounds of the Indian National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016. The place of birth has been categorized as “at home” or “public and private institution.” The role of place of delivery on neo-natal and infant mortality was examined by using multivariate hazard regression models adjusted for clus-tering and relevant maternal, socio-economic, pregnancy and new-born characteristics. There were 141,028 deliveries recorded in public institutions and 54,338 in private institutions. The esti-mated neonatal mortality rate in public and private institutions during this period was 27 and 26 per 1000 live births respectively. The study shows that when the mother delivers child at home, the chances of neonatal mortality risks are higher than the mortality among children born at the health facility centers. Regression analysis also indicates that a professionally qualified provider′s antenatal treatment and assistance greatly decreases the risks of neonatal mortality. The results of the study illustrate the importance of the provision of institutional facilities and proper pregnancy in the prevention of neonatal and infant deaths. To improve the quality of care during and imme-diately after delivery in health facilities, particularly in public hospitals and in rural areas, accel-erated strengthening is required.


2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Betregiorgis Zegeye ◽  
Gebretsadik Shibre ◽  
Jemal Haidar ◽  
Gorems Lemma

Abstract Background The occurrence of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) varied globally with most of the cases coming from developing countries including Yemen. The disparity in IMR in Yemen however, has not been well dealt and therefore we examined the IMR inequality based on the most reliable methodology in order to generate evidence-based information for some program initiatives in Yemen. Methods Based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) software, we analyzed the inequality across the different inequality dimensions in Yemen. The toolkit analyzes data stored in the WHO health equity monitor database. Simple and complex, and absolute and relative measures of inequality were calculated for the four dimensions of inequality (subpopulations) which included wealth, education, sex and residence. We computed a 95 % CI to assess statistical significance. Results The analysis included 31, 743 infants. Absolute and relative wealth-driven, education, urban-rural and sex-based inequalities were found in IMR. Higher concentration of IMR was observed among infants from the poorest/poor households (ACI=-4.68, 95 % CI; -6.57, -2.79, R = 1.61, 95 % CI; 1.18, 2.03), rural residents (D = 15.07, 95 % CI; 8.04, 22.09, PAF=-23.57, 95 % CI; -25.47, -21.68), mothers who had no formal education (ACI=-2.16, 95 % CI; -3.79, -0.54) and had male infants (PAF= -3.66, 95 % CI; -4.86, -2.45). Conclusions Higher concentration of IMR was observed among male infants from disadvantaged subpopulations such as poorest/poor, uneducated and rural residents. To eliminate the observed inequalities, interventions are needed to target the poorest/poor households, rural residents, mothers with no formal education and male infants.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mimi Yow ◽  
Aizhen Jin ◽  
George Seow Heong Yeo

AbstractCleft births surveillance is essential in healthcare and prevention planning. Data are needed in precision medicine to target upstream management for at-risk individuals. This study characterizes Singapore’s population-based orofacial cleft topography by ethnicity and gender, and establishes the cleft cohort’s infant mortality rate. Data, in the decade 2003 to 2012, were extracted by the National Birth Defects Registry. Trend testing by linear regression was at p < 0.05 significance level. Prevalence per 10,000 for population-based cleft live births was 16.72 with no significant upward trend (p = 0.317). Prevalence rates were 8.77 in the isolated cleft group, 7.04 in the non-isolated cleft group, and 0.91 in the syndromic cleft group. There was significant upward trend in infants with non-isolated clefts (p = 0.0287). There were no significant upward trends in infants with isolated clefts and syndromic clefts. Prevalence rates were sexually dimorphic and ethnic-specific: male 17.72; female 15.78; Chinese group 17.17; Malay group 16.92; Indian group 10.74; and mixed ethnic origins group 21.73. The overall infant mortality rate (IMR) was 4.8% in the cohort of 608 cleft births, which was more than double the population-based IMR of 2.1% in the same period. Infants with non-isolated and syndromic clefts accounted for 96.6% of the deaths.


2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 1437-1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antônio Augusto Moura da Silva ◽  
Rosângela Fernandes Lucena Batista ◽  
Vanda Maria Ferreira Simões ◽  
Erika Barbara Abreu Fonseca Thomaz ◽  
Cecília Cláudia Costa Ribeiro ◽  
...  

The objective of this study was to analyze changes in perinatal health in two birth cohorts started in 1997/1998 and 2010, respectively, in São Luís, Maranhão State, Brazil. A total of 2,493 live born infants were included in 1997/1998 and 5,166 in 2010. Low birth weight (LBW) rate did not change (8.5% in 1997/1998 and 8.6% in 2010). Preterm birth (PTB) rate also remained stable (13.2% in 1997/1998 and 13% in 2010). Teenage deliveries and births to single mothers decreased. Maternal schooling and prenatal care coverage increased. Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) decreased from 13.3% to 10.6% (p < 0.001). The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 36.6 to 20.7 per 1,000 (p < 0.001) and the infant mortality rate (IMR) dropped from 28.5 to 12.8 per 1,000 (p < 0.001). The cesarean rate increased from 34.1% to 47.5% (p < 0.001). In conclusion, despite favorable changes in socio-demographic, behavioral, and health service factors and decreasing rates of IUGR and perinatal and infant mortality, LBW and PTB remained stable, while the cesarean rate increased.


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