China in the Period of Global Crisis: Beneficiary, Victim or Culprit?

This article analyzes new opportunities and challenges associated with Chinas entry into the world economy against the background of the recent crisis. It is shown that Chinas domestic macroeconomic disequilibria contributed heavily to the global disbalances which resulted in the global financial crisis. Extremely high rates of saving and investment, along with the huge trade surplus of China, are a mirror reflection of the US economic problems, such as negative gross saving rate, overdependence on consumer demand for economic growth, trade deficit and hefty inflows of foreign capital. Chinas economic cycle broke even in late 2007 - early 2008 that was aggravated with the recession in the developed countries. Hence Chinas economy met with unprecedented economic difficulties. Chinas government stabilization policy was up to the mark, and the economy has accelerated again. But deepening institutional reforms is essential for harmonic economic growth.

Modeling Outcomes of Unconventional Monetary Policy

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering - 2 ◽

10.35940/ijrte.d4503.118419 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 10263-10268

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Central Banks ◽

Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽

The Us ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

The paper presents a study of the outcomes of the unconventional monetary policy methods that the central banks of developed countries have been applying during and after the global financial crisis. Before the crisis central banks used the interest rate policy as their main tool. But the recent financial crisis has demonstrated the inefficiency of traditional methods (especially after the base interest rate has reached zero). Therefore in response to the global financial crisis, central banks of many countries have taken unconventional measures to overcome the crisis. The paper aims to study the main outcomes of unconventional monetary policy measures of the developed countries and formulate the recommendations for the developing countries. The following objectives are being met in the paper:to reveal the essence of the main mechanisms for implementing the unconventional monetary policy; to evaluate the efficiency of unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, United Kingdom;to model the impact of monetary policy of the European Central bank on the consumer price index in the Eurozone countries. Research methods: method of comparative analysis is usedto evaluate the efficiency of the unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, European Union and the United Kingdom.The model of themonetary policy impact on the consumer price index is based on econometric analysis and is constructed using the least squares method. The studied model includes both traditional and non-traditional methods.Observation period - quarterly data from 1999 to the second quarter of 2019. The results of the analysis show that unconventional monetary policy methods of the central banks of the developed countries reached major goals - to prevent bankruptcies of large financial institutions in national economies. Moreover, the results of the suggested model show that the European Central Bank policy has also reached its inflation target that supposed to stimulate economic growth; the most significant effect is observed in the first years after the launch of an unconventional monetary policy. At the same time the unconventional tools of monetary policy stimulate the extreme increase of the securities prices, which led to the “overheating” of the US stock market and the EU national bonds markets with the negative yield on government securities of several countries, which may become a trigger for a new global crisis in the future. The result of the analysis of monetary policy in Ukraine shows the limitations of the use of non-traditional measures for the developing countries.

The Western Balkans: Weak performance since the crisis

Acta Oeconomica ◽

10.1556/032.2018.68.s2.5 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 68 (s2) ◽

pp. 85-120

Author(s):

Marek Dabrowski ◽

Yana Myachenkova

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Western Balkans ◽

Eu Accession ◽

Institutional Reforms ◽

Western Balkan Region ◽

Speed Up ◽

Balkan Region ◽

The Eu

In the early and mid-2000s, the prospect of EU accession and the global boom facilitated rapid economic recovery and boosted economic and institutional reforms in the Western Balkan region. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the European crisis of 2010–2013 slowed the pace of economic growth and amplified high unemployment in the region. In addition, various unresolved legacies from past conflicts slowed the pace of reform and progress towards EU accession. The European Commission’s February 2018 communication sets an indicative deadline (2025) for the two most advanced candidates – Serbia’s and Montenegro’s admission to the EU. This could incentivise all Western Balkan countries, including those candidates that have not yet started membership negotiations (Macedonia and Albania) and those waiting for candidate status (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo), to remove domestic political obstacles to EU accession, solve conflicts with neighbours, speed up reforms and accelerate economic growth.

China's Economic Policy in the Time of the Global Financial Crisis: Which Way Out?

Journal of Current Chinese Affairs ◽

10.1177/186810260903800308 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 38 (3) ◽

pp. 165-181 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Margot Schüller ◽

Yun Schüler-Zhou

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Chinese Economy ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Current Crisis ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

This contribution analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy and the policies implemented by the Chinese government to cope with it. We argue, first, that China has not been able to decouple its economic performance from that of the U.S. and other developed countries. Second, although economic growth in the second quarter of 2009 showed that the stimulus package is working, the current development does not seem to be sustainable. In order to avoid another round of overheating, the government needs to adjust its stimulus policy. Third, the current crisis offers opportunities to conduct necessary structural adjustments in favour of more market-based and innovative industries, more investment by private companies and a stronger role of private consumption in economic growth. Fourth, with the external demand from the OECD countries declining, Chinese export companies need to further diversify their international markets and reorient their production and sales strategies to some extent towards the domestic market.

Tourism and economic growth: Multi-country evidence from mixed-frequency Granger causality tests

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/1354816621990155 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 135481662199015

Author(s):

Martin Enilov ◽

Yuan Wang

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Mixed Frequency ◽

Tourism Sector ◽

This article provides new global evidence for the causal relationship between international tourist arrivals (TA) and economic growth (EG). The analysis considers 23 developing and developed countries and covers the period from January 1981 to December 2017. The causal relationship between TA and EG is determined using a bootstrap mixed-frequency Granger causality approach adopting a rolling window technique to evaluate its stability and persistency over time. Empirical results show that causality is time-varying in both the short-term and the long-term. We illustrate our results by constructing a new global connectivity index (GCI). The GCI shows that international TA remain a leading indicator for future EG in a global perspective, especially during the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings suggest that tourism sector plays an important part in the future EG in developing countries after the GFC. Similarly, the period after the GFC is characterised by one of the highest values of the tourism-led EG in developed countries according to the GCI; however, this effect is temporal and quickly eradicates. Overall, we find that tourism sector in developing countries remains a primary contributor to future EG, which is not the case in developed countries.

CALCULATION PROCEDURE FOR OBTAINING THE QUOTA AFTER THE IMF REFORM: CHANGES IN SINGLE PACKAGE

Economy of Ukraine ◽

10.15407/economyukr.2019.05.028 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 (5) ◽

pp. 28-40

Author(s):

Olena BORZENKO ◽

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Total Capital ◽

Moral Problems ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

New Formula ◽

The Imf

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) keeps plans to complete the review of country quotas in 2019. The country’s quota in the IMF determines the amount of its financial obligations to the Fund; the number of votes in the Fund and the country’s access to financing depend on this quota. Lastly, these shares were redistributed in 2010 under the 14th revision of quotas, when IMF total capital was increased by 100%, and only 6% of the quotas were transferred to developing countries. However, the total share of developing countries in the Fund is only 42.5%; the remaining 57.5% belong to developed countries. The G20 has previously approved a roadmap according to which the quotas for IMF shareholder countries should be redistributed by the new formula until 2019. Countries with emerging economies should gain more weight in this institution, created to maintain the financial stability of its participants, while traditional shareholders should lose some of their share. However, earlier this formula could not be agreed because of the US counteraction. Indeed, currently, the allowable ratio of debt to GDP is revised upward in most countries, with these changes most noticeable in countries with emerging markets. It is expected that for such countries, the debt index may exceed the level observed at the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The developed countries with a debt burden exceeding 100% of GDP remain vulnerable as well. As a result, the probability of long-term preservation of low GDP growth rates increases. At one time, Cooper’s group refused to use the debt index, believing that it could cause certain “moral problems”: the states would be interested in debt build-up to increase their quota in the IMF.

PENGARUH INFRASTRUKTUR SECARA SPASIAL TERHADAP KONVERGENSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

INFO ARTHA ◽

10.31092/jia.v1i1.67 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. 17-28

Author(s):

Anisa Fahmi

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Regional Economics ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Road Infrastructure ◽

Long Run ◽

Catch Up ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Positive Effect ◽

Neoclassical Growth Theory

Motivated by inter-regional disparities condition that occurs persistently, this study examines the Indonesian economy in the long run in order to know whether it tends to converge or diverge. This convergence is based on the Solow Neoclassical growth theory assuming the existence of diminishing returns to capital so that when the developed countries reach steady state conditions, developing countries will continuously grow up to 'catch-up' with developed countries. Based on regional economics perspective, each region can not be treated as a stand-alone unit,therefore, this study also focuses on the influence of spatial dependency and infrastructure. Economical and political situations of a region will influence policy in that region which will also have an impact to the neighboring regions. The estimation results of spatial cross-regressive model using fixed effect method consistently confirmed that the Indonesian economy in the long term will likely converge with a speed of 8.08 percent per year. Other findings are road infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth and investment and road infrastructure are spatially showed a positive effect on economic growth. In other words, the investment and infrastructure of a region does not only affect the economic growth of that region but also to the economy of the contiguous regions.

Do Bubble Behaviors Exist in Chinese Film Stocks?

SAGE Open ◽

10.1177/2158244020983300 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 215824402098330

Author(s):

Chi-Wei Su ◽

Lu Liu ◽

Kai-Hua Wang

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Film Industry ◽

Stock Index ◽

Industrial Policies ◽

Chinese Film ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Boom And Bust ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

This article investigates bubbles in the Chinese film industry to reveal the industry’s boom and bust process that influences employment, citizen’s livelihoods, and even economic growth. We adopt the film stock index to reflect the industry’s trajectory and employ the generalized and backward sup augmented Dickey–Fuller tests to detect bubble periods. Empirical results indicate that there are three positive bubbles in 2007, 2013, and 2015, indicating that the film market continues to expand after temporary frustrations. Meanwhile, one negative bubble is found in 2019, which demonstrates that the bubble’s negative impacts persist and the film industry is still having problems such as declining industrial output. Economic growth, film quality, and industrial policies are common factors for all bubbles. The global financial crisis, capital in- and outflows, internet giants’ entry and sky-high remuneration are reasons for certain bubble behaviors. Hence, market practitioners should actively recognize bubbles and observe their evolution, which will favor industrial stabilization. A perfect legal system, moderate industrial policies, a competitive market environment, and other measures are needed to confront the opportunities and challenges.

Advances in Human Services and Public Health - Handbook of Research on Economic and Social Impacts of Population Aging ◽

The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Middle East Countries

10.4018/978-1-7998-7327-3.ch005 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 67-86

Author(s):

Abdullah Abdulaziz Bawazir ◽

Mohamed Aslam ◽

Ahmad Farid Osman

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Panel Data ◽

Middle East ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Population Aging ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Dependency Ratio ◽

Middle East Countries ◽

The Developed Countries

This study examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth in a panel of 10 selected Middle East countries for the period of 1996–2016. For this purpose, this study uses two different measures of population aging, namely population aged 65 and over and old dependency ratio, to investigate their impacts on economic growth. The study utilizes the three alternative models of static panel data comprised of the pooled ordinary least squares, random effects, and fixed effects. The results of the robust fixed effects model indicate that the population aged 65 and over and the old dependency ratio have a positive effect on economic growth. The finding supports the argument indicating that an aging population does not necessarily adversely affect economic growth in the developing countries as it does in the developed countries. Therefore, the elderly population is not a matter of concern for the Middle East and the mechanisms through which the effect can take place are savings behavior and human capital accumulation of the individuals.

Global Trends in Domestic savings and Longevity- Implications for India

Research Anthology on Personal Finance and Improving Financial Literacy ◽

10.4018/978-1-7998-8049-3.ch007 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 111-118

Author(s):

Thilak Venkatesan ◽

Venkataraman R

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Developed Countries ◽

The Other ◽

Demographic Dividend ◽

Policy Action ◽

Global Trends ◽

Domestic Savings ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Developed Nations ◽

The Relationship

Demographic dividend and the lowest median age among the earning population propels consumption and growth in India. Among the emerging economies, China had the leverage for growth through exports until 2008. India benefited by demographic dividend and this translates to providing income and thereby increases savings. On the other hand, the developed countries are experiencing problems of an aging economy, a deflationary scenario, and a pension burden. India, with its major workforce in the unorganized and private sector, needs to recognize the need for forward-looking policies that stimulate savings for a better lifestyle post-retirement. The study was focussed on the relationship between longevity (life expectancy), and domestic savings. The research observed divergence between the developed nations and India. A more futuristic policy action is suggested to motivate savings as the increase in population and higher levels of economic growth can be achieved with more domestic savings.

Section III. Prospects for Europe

National Institute Economic Review ◽

10.1177/002795019816600107 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 166 ◽

pp. 44-56

Author(s):

Nigel Pain ◽

Florence Hubert ◽

Dirk te Velde ◽

Dawn Holland ◽

Véronique Genre

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

European Commission ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Future Prospects ◽

The Eu

Economic growth in the EU area rose markedly last year. Output expanded by more than 3 per cent in over half of the member countries, although growth was notably slower in the larger economies. The outlook continued to improve in the first half of this year. Growth in the first quarter was particularly buoyant. Eurostat figures indicate that output in the EU was some 3.3 per cent higher in the first quarter of 1998 than a year earlier. Although output rose by only 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, this was partly due to statistical distortions arising from the different number of working days in the quarter. Italy is the sole economy where growth has proved to be weaker than initially expected. The global financial crisis and slowdown in worldwide demand is expected to dampen EU growth somewhat next year, and we continue to be less optimistic than the European Commission about future prospects. Growth in the EU economies is projected to slow from 2¾ per cent this year to around 2¼ per cent in 1999.