scholarly journals Are Sports Betting Markets Semi-Strong Efficient? Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Flurin Meier ◽  
Raphael Flepp ◽  
Egon Franck
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Winning Probability ◽  
New Information ◽  
New Public ◽  
Home Advantage ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

This paper examines whether sports betting markets are semi-strong form efficient—i.e., whether new information is rapidly and completely incorporated into betting prices. We use news on ghost games in the top European football leagues due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a clean arrival of new public information. Because spectators are absent during ghost games, the home advantage is reduced, and we test whether this information is fully reflected in betting prices. Our results show that bookmakers and betting exchanges systematically overestimated a home team’s winning probability during the first period of the ghost games, which suggests that betting markets are, at least temporally, not semi-strong form efficient. Examining different leagues, we find that our main results are driven by the German Bundesliga, which was the first league to resume operations. We exploit a betting strategy that yields a positive net payoff over more than one month.

HOME BIAS AND INTERNATIONAL BETTING MARKETS: CAN INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES LEAD TO ARBITRAGE PROFITS?

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Ludwig Chincarini ◽  
Christina Contreras
Keyword(s):  
Home Country ◽  
Home Bias ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Bias Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Small Data Set ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.

ARE BEHAVIORAL BIASES CONSISTENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC?: THE OVER/UNDER MARKET FOR EUROPEAN SOCCER

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Andy Weinbach ◽  
Rodney J. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
North American ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Simple Strategy ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

Tests of the totals (Over/Under) market are performed for 22 European Soccer Leagues to determine if the behavioral biases found in North American sports betting markets are present in European Football (Soccer) betting markets.  Even though European fans passionately follow a low-scoring sport, bettors/fans in this market still appear to prefer the over to the under.  Simple betting strategies based on betting the over lose more than twice as much money as a simple strategy of betting the under and returns are found to be statistically different from a fair bet.  In addition, when the over is the longshot, a favorite-longshot bias is found such that losses on the over are extremely high.  When the under is the longshot, however, losses are nearly equal between overs and unders.  This presents the possibility multiple behavioral biases may exist in the same financial market, with the presence of one possibly masking the other.

scholarly journals Home advantage during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyses of European football leagues

2021 ◽  
pp. 102013
Author(s):  
Dane McCarrick ◽  
Merim Bilalic ◽  
Nick Neave ◽  
Sandy Wolfson
Keyword(s):  
Home Advantage ◽  
European Football

scholarly journals A Little Knowledge: Privacy, Security and Public Information After September 11

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Shane
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Technology Policy ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Public Information ◽  
The United States ◽  
September 11 ◽  
Personal Privacy ◽  
Security Technology ◽  
New Public ◽  
Free Flow Of Information

Drawn from the proceedings of the April, 2003 Carnegie Mellon (InSITeS)-Georgetown University Law Center-Century Foundation conference on Security, Technology, and Privacy, A Little Knowledge looks at the different ways that public security, government transparency and the individual's right to privacy have been placed at odds after September 11. In an introductory essay, the editors synthesize the lessons of the chapters that follow into six key propositions: (1) The free flow of information is essential to the security and prosperity of the United States; (2) The impulse towards secrecy inevitably metastasizes; (3) Public information policy and technology policy are inescapably linked; (4) New technologies hold unprecedented promise for maximizing the value of information to an empowered citizenry; (5) Because technology is Janus-faced, democratic intention is as critical to shaping the future as sound engineering; (6) We need new public institutions to insure adequate consideration of the arguments in favor of freedom of public information and the protection of personal privacy. The authors especially urge policy makers to eschew the pursuit of tradeoffs among privacy, security, and transparency as long as possible in favor of a national dialogue about how to optimize the joint realization of these three central values. The volume also features John Podesta on Governing in Secret; Alice P. Gast on restricting the flow of scientific information; Baruch Fischhoff on disclosing risks; Victor W. Weedn on government risk communications; George Duncan on optimizing privacy and openness values in the management of government databases; Joel R. Reidenberg on international approaches to privacy; and Sally Katzen on public information rights.

Sports Betting and The Black-Litterman Model: A New Portfolio-Management Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Abinzano ◽  
Maria Jesus Campion ◽  
Luis Muga ◽  
Armajac Raventós-Pujol
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Management Models ◽  
Management Perspective ◽  
Portfolio Manager ◽  
Betting Markets

This paper transfers and adapts the Black-Litterman portfolio management model and its subsequent generalizations to the characteristics and specificities of assets quoted on sports betting markets. The results show that these assets are suitable for the application of portfolio management models with the possible inclusion of investors’ opinions. Information based on the variability of market prices and the attention received by NBA teams in Google Trends is successfully used to simulate the opinions expressed by a hypothetical portfolio manager. Furthermore, the assets are suitable for inclusion in portfolios in which managers are seeking returns uncorrelated with other assets.

The Use and Management of Public Information in Social Media

2020 ◽  
pp. 321-336
Author(s):  
Inmaculada Sánchez-Labella Martín
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Full Advantage ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
City Councils ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Disaffection ◽  
Western Democracies

The increase of political disaffection in Spain, as is occurring in many western democracies across the world, coincides with a growing vindication of democracy on the part of the citizenry, which translates to a demand for more governmental transparency and access to information. With this in mind, this chapter explores the availability of information in local public administrations on social media. The study analyses the presence of town and city councils throughout Andalusia on Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube, examining how these media are managed and their effects, by studying the content and resources provided to the citizens for interacting with the institutions. The results revealed that although the selected councils tried to adopt these new information channels, they are still far from taking full advantage of the possibilities the new technologies could provide.

Why Do IPO Offer Prices Only Partially Adjust?

2014 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özgür Ş. İnce
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
New Information ◽  
Pricing Process ◽  
Ipo Pricing ◽  
Public Offering

This study develops a structural model of the initial public offering (IPO) pricing process that enables the estimation of adjustment rates for public and private pricing information gathered during bookbuilding. The estimated upward adjustment rate of public information is only 21%, significantly less than the 28% rate of private information. Adjustment rates decline towards the IPO date, especially for upward adjustments. The findings contradict information acquisition theories that predict a complete adjustment to public information and highlight the inefficiency of the IPO bookbuilding mechanism in handling new information even when information is publicly available and especially when it is favorable.

AN EXAMINATION OF IN-PLAY SPORTS BETTING USING ONE-DAY CRICKET MATCHES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Steve Easton ◽  
Katherine Uylangco
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Betting Odds

There is a wide literature on sports betting markets, a literature that examines the informational efficiency of these markets and uses them as laboratories to test for possible impacts of psychological factors on financial markets. The innovation of this study is the examination of price behaviour in an in-play betting market – namely that for one-day cricket. Cricket provides an ideal construct in which to examine in-play market behaviour, as it is a sport where outcomes can be calibrated as good news or bad news on a play-by-play basis. The results from an examination of over 8000 balls corresponding to over 8000 “news events” shows that the in-play betting market is one in which news is impounded rapidly into betting odds. There is also evidence that odds have a level of predictive ability with respect to outcomes from balls before they are bowled. Further, there is evidence of a drift in odds subsequent to the outcome of balls being known.

REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney J Paul ◽  
Andrew P Weinbach ◽  
Brad Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Professional Basketball ◽  
The Public ◽  
Behavioral Bias ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Betting Markets

The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks.   Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book.  Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games.  Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases.  The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book.   Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency.  However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets.  This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias.  This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes.

Information Efficiency in High-Frequency Betting Markets

2013 ◽  
pp. 209-232
Author(s):  
J. James Reade ◽  
John Goddard
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Information Transfer ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Sporting Events ◽  
Information Efficiency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Online Betting ◽  
Form Information

The betting industry has been transformed by the Internet. Growth of person-to-person betting, mediated through online betting exchanges, has been a key element of this transformation. Betting exchanges enable traders to either back (buy) or lay (sell) bets on a wide range of sporting events. Such continuously operating online betting markets have ensured the transition of the use of high-frequency data (sub-daily sampling) from the financial setting into the betting market context. This chapter reviews recent academic research on the topic of information efficiency in high-frequency, in-play football betting markets. Several studies have reported evidence violating weak-form information efficiency, in the form of a favorite-longshot bias in in-play betting prices. However, there is evidence in the literature in favor of semi-strong form information efficiency. One study reports interesting evidence in support of strong-form information efficiency. As in-play betting markets continue to develop, driven by further improvements in computing power, parallel growth is anticipated in research on information transfer and price formation in financial markets, an exciting new arena for academic study.

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