ARE BEHAVIORAL BIASES CONSISTENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC?: THE OVER/UNDER MARKET FOR EUROPEAN SOCCER

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Andy Weinbach ◽  
Rodney J. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
North American ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Simple Strategy ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

Tests of the totals (Over/Under) market are performed for 22 European Soccer Leagues to determine if the behavioral biases found in North American sports betting markets are present in European Football (Soccer) betting markets.  Even though European fans passionately follow a low-scoring sport, bettors/fans in this market still appear to prefer the over to the under.  Simple betting strategies based on betting the over lose more than twice as much money as a simple strategy of betting the under and returns are found to be statistically different from a fair bet.  In addition, when the over is the longshot, a favorite-longshot bias is found such that losses on the over are extremely high.  When the under is the longshot, however, losses are nearly equal between overs and unders.  This presents the possibility multiple behavioral biases may exist in the same financial market, with the presence of one possibly masking the other.

HOME BIAS AND INTERNATIONAL BETTING MARKETS: CAN INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES LEAD TO ARBITRAGE PROFITS?

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Ludwig Chincarini ◽  
Christina Contreras
Keyword(s):  
Home Country ◽  
Home Bias ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Bias Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Small Data Set ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.

Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets with Informed Bettors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Birge ◽  
Yifan Feng ◽  
N. Bora Keskin ◽  
Adam Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Market Maker ◽  
Market Manipulation ◽  
Dynamic Learning ◽  
Market Making ◽  
Betting Markets

How Bookies Can Outwit Sophisticated Bettors Sports-betting markets are based entirely on predictions. A bettor has to pick a winning contestant, and a market maker―a bookie―bets on the opponent. As bookies have to take the other side of every bet, it is of great value to understand the market making problem, that is, how to set the spread lines as “prices” for the bookies. Nevertheless, understanding of this problem is limited. Specifically, sophisticated bettors exist in the market, and a bookie can be manipulated by skillful bettors because of information asymmetry. In “Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets with Informed Bettors,” Birge, Feng, Keskin, and Schultz study the market-making problem under information asymmetry and market manipulation. They show that, although many popular learning and pricing algorithms, such as Bayesian policies, are effective in learning, they are vulnerable to strategic manipulations. The authors propose a dynamic learning and pricing algorithm, called the inertial policy, that collects information from the market effectively but also protects the bookie from strategic manipulations.

scholarly journals Are Sports Betting Markets Semi-Strong Efficient? Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Flurin Meier ◽  
Raphael Flepp ◽  
Egon Franck
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Winning Probability ◽  
New Information ◽  
New Public ◽  
Home Advantage ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
European Football

This paper examines whether sports betting markets are semi-strong form efficient—i.e., whether new information is rapidly and completely incorporated into betting prices. We use news on ghost games in the top European football leagues due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a clean arrival of new public information. Because spectators are absent during ghost games, the home advantage is reduced, and we test whether this information is fully reflected in betting prices. Our results show that bookmakers and betting exchanges systematically overestimated a home team’s winning probability during the first period of the ghost games, which suggests that betting markets are, at least temporally, not semi-strong form efficient. Examining different leagues, we find that our main results are driven by the German Bundesliga, which was the first league to resume operations. We exploit a betting strategy that yields a positive net payoff over more than one month.

scholarly journals Eurasian and North American phylogeny of Turolian hipparionine horses (Perissodactyla, Mammalia) in China

1992 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 305-305
Author(s):  
Mahito Watabe
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Sensu Stricto ◽  
The Other ◽  
Dental Morphology ◽  
Facial Morphology ◽  
Open Land ◽  
Specialized Form ◽  
Eastern Half

The late Miocene Chinese hipparions are morphologically diversified showing similarity to both western Old World's and North American forms. Two Chinese taxa that are phylogenetically related to western Old World's forms are Hipparion fossatum (= H. forstende) from Baode (Shanxi) and H. hippidiodus from Qingyang (Gansu) and Baode. The former is related to H. mediterraneum and the latter to H. urmiense - platygenys from the Turolian localities in the western Old World. H. fossatum and H. hippidiodus are associated with the “dorcadoides” (open-land) and “mixed” faunas in northern China. Hipparion fossatum that is characterized by POF located close to the orbit co-occurs with large and morphologically specialized form, H. dermatorhinum in Baode (Loc.30). H. hippidiodus with reduced POF is discovered with smaller H. coelophyes in Loc. 43, 44 (Baode) and Loc. 115 (Gansu).The hipparions associated with the “gaudryi” (forest) fauna are characterized by well defined and small POF located far from the orbit. Those forms are: H. platyodus from Loc. 70; H. ptychodus from Loc. 73; H. tylodus from Hsi-Liang in Yushe - Wuxiang basins; and H. sefvei from Loc. 12 at Xin-an in Henan province. H. coelophyes from Baode (Loc.43 & 44) and Qingyang (Loc. 115) also show similar facial morphology to the these forms, although it has small size and shallow POF. Those forms are similar in facial and dental morphology to Hipparion sensu stricto and some species of Cormohipparion in North America.The assemblages of Chinese hipparions are composed of two groups whose members are phylogenetically similar to the forms from both western part of Eurasia and North America. The “gaudryi” fauna is considered younger than the other two on the basis of faunal analyses. The similarity in hipparionine taxonomy between northern China and North America in the latest Miocene is an evidences for possible faunal interchange(s) occurred during that period, as suggested by taxonomic analyses on carnivores and proboscideans in eastern half of Eurasia and North America.

Tunes That Bind: Paul J. Seelig, Eva Gauthier, Charles T. Griffes, and the Javanese Other

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-154
Author(s):  
HENRY SPILLER
Keyword(s):  
Identity Formation ◽  
North American ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Sense Of Self ◽  
The Other ◽  
Edward Said ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
East Indies ◽  
Dutch East Indies

AbstractThe powerful concept of orientalism has undergone considerable refinement since Edward Said popularized the term with his eponymous book in 1978. Orientalism typically is presented as a totalizing process that creates polar oppositions between a dominating West and a subordinate East. U.S. orientalisms, however, reflect uniquely North American approaches to identity formation that include assimilating characteristics usually associated with the Other. This article explores the complex relationship among three individuals—U.S. composer Charles T. Griffes, Canadian singer Eva Gauthier, and German-trained Dutch East Indies composer Paul J. Seelig—and how they exploited the same Javanese songs to lend legitimacy to their individual artistic projects. A comparison of Griffes's and Seelig's settings of a West Javanese tune (“Kinanti”) provides an especially clear example of how contrasting approaches manifest different orientalisms. Whereas Griffes accompanied the melody with stock orientalist gestures to express his own fascination with the exotic, Seelig used chromatic harmonies and a chorale-like texture to ground the melody in the familiar, translating rather than representing its Otherness. The tunes that bind Griffes, Gauthier, and Seelig are only the raw materials from which they created their own unique orientalisms, each with its own sense of self and its own Javanese others.

Critical Value-Based Power Options Pricing Problems in Uncertain Financial Markets

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150002
Author(s):  
Guimin Yang ◽  
Yuanguo Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
The Other ◽  
Options Pricing ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Pricing Problems ◽  
Fractional Differential ◽  
The One

Compared with investing an ordinary options, investing the power options may possibly yield greater returns. On the one hand, the power option is the best choice for those who want to maximize the leverage of the underlying market movements. On the other hand, power options can also prevent the financial market changes caused by the sharp fluctuations of the underlying assets. In this paper, we investigate the power option pricing problem in which the price of the underlying asset follows the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type of model involving an uncertain fractional differential equation. Based on critical value criterion, the pricing formulas of European power options are derived. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the results.

scholarly journals How to Profit From Declines of Share Prices without Shorting Them

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Leszek Zaremba
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
View Point ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Period Model

We present a 1-period model of the Polish financial market from the view point of the largest Polish company KGH, whose share prices declined from 119 PLN on June 1, 2015 to 68 PLN on December 2, 2015. Our goal is to show how KGHM might create portfolios (with practically zero cost), which would (almost) fully compensate these declines without, what is very important, short sale of KGHM’s shares. The presented methodology is equally suitable in any country for all those companies for which options on their shares are also tradable. We employ here a matrix model of a fraction of the Polish financial market and make use of the Black–Scholes formula to valuate 3 portfolios replicating 3 desired by KGHM, but not available on the market, financial instruments. To give more insight to the readers, we distinguish two cases. In one of them, volatility of KGHM’s share prices is 33%, and in the other case it equals 20%.

scholarly journals Typology and nuance: relativization

2020 ◽  
pp. 104-130
Author(s):  
Marianne Mithun
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Relative Clauses ◽  
Spontaneous Speech ◽  
The Other ◽  
Stages Of Development ◽  
Linguistic Typology ◽  
The North

Much of linguistic typology is inherently categorical. In large-scale typological surveys, grammatical constructions, distinctions, and even variables are typically classified as present, absent, or embodying one of a set of specified options. This work is valuable for a multitude of purposes, and in many cases such categorization is sufficient. In others, we can advance our understanding further if we take a more nuanced approach, considering the extent to which a particular construction, distinction, or variable is installed in the grammar. An important tool for this approach is the examination of unscripted speech in context, complete with prosody. This point is illustrated here with Mohawk, an Iroquoian language indigenous to the North American Northeast. As will be seen, the two types of construction which might be identified as relative clauses are emergent, one less integrated into the grammar than the other. Examination of spontaneous speech indicates that the earliest stages of development are prosodic, as speakers shape their messages according to their communicative purposes at each moment.

ANTHOCYANIN, AGLYCONE AND AGLYCONE-SUGAR CONTENT OF FRUITS OF TEMPERATE NORTH AMERICAN SPECIES OF Gaylussacia (ERICACEAE)

1988 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. BALLINGTON ◽  
W. E. BALLINGER ◽  
E. P. MANESS
Keyword(s):  
High Performance Liquid Chromatography ◽  
Liquid Chromatography ◽  
North American ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Hplc Analysis ◽  
Sugar Content ◽  
North American Species ◽  
The Other ◽  
Phylogenetic Implications

HPLC analysis of the true huckleberry species Gaylussacia baccata, G. dumosa, G. frondosa, G. mosieri, and G. ursina identified the 3-monoarabinosides, 3-monogalactosides, and 3-monoglucosides of cyanidin, delphinidin, malvidin, peonidin, and petunidin. Gaylussacia brachycera contained all anthocyanins, except peonidin-3-arabinoside. Gaylussacia brachycera differed from other species in percent delphinidin-3-arabinoside. It was higher than the other species in percent of the aglycone delphinidin and lower in cyanidin, and also higher in percent of the sugar arabinose. There were no detectable differences among the other species for anthocyanins, aglycones, or aglycone-sugars. The phylogenetic implications of the similarities among species of Gaylussacia and Vaccinium in anthocyanins, aglycones, and aglycone-sugars of the fruit were discussed.Key words: High-performance liquid chromatography, huckleberries, blueberries, chemotaxonomy, taxonomy, biosystematics

Sports Betting and The Black-Litterman Model: A New Portfolio-Management Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Abinzano ◽  
Maria Jesus Campion ◽  
Luis Muga ◽  
Armajac Raventós-Pujol
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Management Models ◽  
Management Perspective ◽  
Portfolio Manager ◽  
Betting Markets

This paper transfers and adapts the Black-Litterman portfolio management model and its subsequent generalizations to the characteristics and specificities of assets quoted on sports betting markets. The results show that these assets are suitable for the application of portfolio management models with the possible inclusion of investors’ opinions. Information based on the variability of market prices and the attention received by NBA teams in Google Trends is successfully used to simulate the opinions expressed by a hypothetical portfolio manager. Furthermore, the assets are suitable for inclusion in portfolios in which managers are seeking returns uncorrelated with other assets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document