scholarly journals Probability Distribution of Rainfall in Medan

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elly Rosmaini
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Normal Distributions ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling

In this paper we chose three stations in Medan City , Indonesia to estimate Monthly Rainfall Data i.e. Tuntungan, Tanjung Selamat, and Medan Selayang Stations. We took the data from 2007 to 2016. In this case fitted with Normal, Gamma, and Lognormal Distributions. To estimate parameters, we used this method. Furthermore, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson Darling tests were used the goodness-of-fit test. The Gamma and Normal Distributions is suitable for Tuntungan and Medan Selayang Stations were stated by Kolmogorov-Smirnov's test. Anderson Darling's test stated that Gamma Distribution was suitable for all stations.

scholarly journals A comparison of three parameter estimation methods of the gamma distribution of annual maximum low flow duration and deficit in the Upper Vistula catchment (Poland)

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 00001
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul
Keyword(s):  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Flow Duration ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Parameter Estimation Methods

Based on 30-year 24-hour flow sequences at 69 water gauging stations in the Upper Vistula catchment, it was determined that the probability distributions of the low flow duration and its maximum annual deficit can be described by the gamma distribution with the estimated parameters by the methods: MOM, the method of moments, LMOM, the method of linear moments, and MLE, the method of maximum likelihood. The stationarity of the time series was tested by the Mann-Kendall correlation using the Hamed and Rao variance correction. The low flows were defined by the SPA method, with the limit flow Q70%. The quality of the match was tested by the Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test. This test allowed accepting the gamma distribution in all analysed cases, regardless of the method used to estimate the distribution parameters, since the pv (p-values) values were greater than 5% (over 18% for Tmax and 7.5% for Vmax). The highest pv values for individual water gauging stations, as well as the highest 90% Tmax and Vmax quantiles were noted using LMOM to estimate the gamma distribution parameters. The highest 90% Tmax and Vmax quantiles were observed in the uppermost part of the studied area.

scholarly journals Goodness-of-Fit of Reference Evapotranspiration to Gamma Probability Distribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Janilson Pinheiro de Assis ◽  
Roberto Pequeno de Sousa ◽  
Isaac Reinaldo Pinheiro de Lima ◽  
Paulo César Ferreira Linhares ◽  
Walter Rodrigues Martins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Maximum Benefit ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Data Period

This paper aims to estimate, using the Penman-Monteith method, the probabilities of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in millimeters, as well as their accumulated values for ten days (decendial), in Mossoró, northeast Brazil. The Meteorological Station of the Federal Rural University of Semi-Arid (UFERSA) provided the daily records of evapotranspiration. The construction of tables based on the approximation of the variable to the Gamma distribution allows the use of data without transformations. The probabilities were estimated with the Gamma distribution at confidence levels of 1% to 95% over the 1970-2007 data period. The results of the chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests at 10% probability (p ≥ 0.10) demonstrated the adequacy of the table construction process, providing essential support in the planning of agricultural activities in the region to obtain the maximum benefit from evapotranspiration data. The Gamma probability distribution best described the ET0 for scaling irrigation systems in the county. The maximum daily ET0 for irrigation projects in the Mossoró region is 10 mm, and the cumulative 10-day ET0 averages 80 mm.

scholarly journals Establishment of a Stochastic Model for Sustainable Economic Flood Management in Yewa Sub-Basin, Southwest Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (12) ◽  
pp. 646-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
O.A Agbede ◽  
Oluwatobi Aiyelokun
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Southwest Nigeria ◽  
Anderson Darling

Of all natural disasters, floods have been considered to have the greatest potential damage. The magnitude of economic damages and number of people affected by flooding have recently increased globally due to climate change. This study was based on the establishment of a stochastic model for reducing economic floods risk in Yewa sub-basin, by fitting maximum annual instantaneous discharge into four probability distributions. Daily discharge of River Yewa gauged at Ijaka-Oke was used to establish a rating curve for the sub-basin, while return periods of instantaneous peak floods were computed using the Hazen plotting position. Flood magnitudes were found to increase with return periods based on Hazen plotting position. In order to ascertain the most suitable probability distribution for predicting design floods, the performance evaluation of the models using root mean square error was employed. In addition, the four probability models were subjected to goodness of fit test besed on Anderson-Darling (A2) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS). As a result of the diagnostics test the Weibul probability distribution was confirmed to fit well with the empirical data of the study area. The stochastic model  generated from the Weibul probability distribution, could be used to enhance sustainable development by reducing economic flood damages in the sub-basin.

scholarly journals Performances of Shannon’s Entropy Statistic in Assessment of Distribution of Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorentz Jäntschi ◽  
Sorana D. Bolboacă
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Shannon’S Entropy ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Shannon's Entropy ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Von Mises

AbstractStatistical analysis starts with the assessment of the distribution of experimental data. Different statistics are used to test the null hypothesis (H0) stated as Data follow a certain/specified distribution. In this paper, a new test based on Shannon’s entropy (called Shannon’s entropy statistic, H1) is introduced as goodness-of-fit test. The performance of the Shannon’s entropy statistic was tested on simulated and/or experimental data with uniform and respectively four continuous distributions (as error function, generalized extreme value, lognormal, and normal). The experimental data used in the assessment were properties or activities of active chemical compounds. Five known goodness-of-fit tests namely Anderson-Darling, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramér-von Mises, Kuiper V, and Watson U2 were used to accompany and assess the performances of H1.

scholarly journals Statistical Study of Rainfall Control: The Dagum Distribution and Applicability to the Southwest of Spain

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando López-Rodríguez ◽  
Justo García-Sanz-Calcedo ◽  
Francisco Moral-García ◽  
Antonio García-Conde
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Dagum Distribution ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling

It is of vital importance in statistical distributions to fit rainfall data to determine the maximum amount of rainfall expected for a specific hydraulic work. Otherwise, the hydraulic capacity study could be erroneous, with the tragic consequences that this would entail. This study aims to present the Dagum distribution as a new statistical tool to calculate rainfall in front of frequent statistical distributions such as Gumbel, Log-Pearson Type III, Gen Extreme Value (GEV) and SQRT-ET max. The study was performed by collecting annual rainfall data from 52 meteorological stations in the province of Badajoz (Spain), using the statistical goodness-of-fit tests of Anderson–Darling and Kolmogorov–Smirnov to establish the degree of fitness of the Dagum distribution, applied to the maximum annual rainfall series. The results show that this distribution obtained a flow 21.92% greater than that with the traditional distributions. Therefore, in the Southwest of Spain, the Dagum distribution fits better to the observed rainfall data than other common statistical distributions, with respect to precision and calculus of hydraulics works and river flood plains.

Fitting The Statistical Distributions To The Daily Rainfall Amount In Peninsular Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhaila Jamaludin ◽  
Abdul Aziz Jemain
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
Cramer Von Mises

Data hujan harian dibahagikan kepada empat jenis rentetan hujan (jenis 1, 2, 3 dan 4). Taburan Gamma, Weibull, Kappa dan Gabungan Eksponen ialah empat taburan statistik yang diuji dalam memadankan data jumlah hujan harian di Semenanjung Malaysia. Parameter bagi setiap taburan dianggar dengan menggunakan kaedah kebolehjadian maksimum. Model dipilih berdasarkan nilai ralat yang minimum terhasil dari tujuh ujian kesesuaian model iaitu median bagi perbezaan nilai mutlak antara taburan empirik dengan taburan yang diuji, statistik fungsi empirik iaitu Kolmogorov-Smirnov D, Anderson Darling A2 dan Cramer-von-Mises W2 serta kaedah baru statistik fungsi empirik yang berasaskan kepada ujian nisbah kebolehjadian. Berdasarkan nilai ujian kesesuaian model, didapati taburan Gabungan Eksponen adalah yang paling sesuai dalam memadankan data jumlah hujan harian di Semenanjung Malaysia. Kata kunci: Jumlah hujan harian, ujian kesesuaian model, gabungan eksponen Daily rainfall data have been classified according to four rain types of sequence of wet days (Type 1, 2, 3 and 4). The Gamma, Weibull, Kappa and Mixed Exponential are the four distributions that have been tested to fit daily rainfall amount in Peninsular Malaysia. Parameter for each distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The selected model is chosen based on the minimum error produced by seven goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests namely the medium of absolute difference (MAD) between the empirical and hypothesized distributions, the traditional Empirical Distribution Function (EDF) Statistics which include Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic D, Anderson Darling statistic A2 and Cramer-von-Mises statistic W2 and the new method of EDF Statistic based on likelihood ratio statistic. Based on these goodness-of-fit test, the Mixed Exponential is found to be the most approriate distribution for describing the daily rainfall amount in Peninsular Malaysia. Key words: Dairy rainfall amount, goodness–of–fit test, mixed exponential

scholarly journals Phase Space Parameterization of Rain: The Inadequacy of Gamma Distribution

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 548-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Ignaccolo ◽  
Carlo De Michele
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Drop Size ◽  
Cartesian Product ◽  
Drop Size Distribution ◽  
Drop Diameter ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov

AbstractThe authors test the adequacy of gamma distribution to describe the statistical variability of raindrop diameters in 1-min disdrometer data using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. The results do not support the use of this distribution, with a percentage of rejected cases that increases with the sample size. A different parameterization of the drop size distribution is proposed that does not require any particular functional form and is based on the adoption of statistical moments. The first three moments, namely the mean, standard deviation, and skewness, are sufficient to characterize the distribution of the drop diameter at the ground. These parameters, together with the drop count, form a 4-tuple, which fully describes the variability of the drop size distribution. The Cartesian product of this 4-tuple of parameters is the rainfall phase space. Using disdrometer data from 10 different locations, invariant, location-independent properties of rainfall are identified.

AN ALTERNATIVE TEST FOR UNIFORMITY

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (04) ◽  
pp. 343-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHENMIN CHEN ◽  
CHUNMIAO YE
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Integral Transformation ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Underlying Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Alternative Test ◽  
Smirnov Test

Improving power of goodness-of-fit tests is an important research topic in statistics. The goal of the goodness-of-fit test is to check whether the underlying probability distribution, from which a sample is drawn, differs from a hypothesized distribution. Numerous research papers have been published in this area. It has been shown that the power of the existing goodness-of-fit tests in the literature is unsatisfactory when the alternative distributions are of V-shape or when the sample sizes are small. This motivates the development of more powerful test statistics. In this research, a new test statistic is proposed. The result can be used to test whether the underlying probability distribution differs from a uniform distribution. By applying the probability integral transformation, the proposed test statistic can be used to check whether the underlying distribution differs from any hypothesized distribution. The performance of the method proposed in this research is compared with the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, which is a widely adopted statistical test in the literature. It has been shown that the test proposed in this proposal is more powerful than the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test in some cases.

scholarly journals ​Rainfall Probability Distribution and Forecasting Monthly Rainfall of Navsari using ARIMA Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.K. Dwivedi ◽  
P.K. Shrivastava
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Sowing Time ◽  
Best Fit

Background: Reliable rainfall forecast could be helpful to farmers as major decisions regarding selection of crops and sowing time are based on the rainfall. The univariate time series ARIMA model requires only past data for model formulation and to simulate stochastic processes. The current study was aimed to obtain the probability distribution of monthly rainfall using the method of moments and to forecast rainfall using the ARIMA model. Methods: The method of moments was used to determine the parameters of distributions and the chi-square test was used as a goodness of fit test to obtain the best fit distribution for monthly rainfall of Navsari, Gujarat utilizing 36 years of rainfall data. Auto regressive moving average (ARIMA) model, popular owing to its simplicity and ability to simulate various stochastic processes was used in the study. Result: It was revealed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit distribution for June and September, whereas Gumbel was the best fit distribution for July. For simulating monthly rainfall, the seasonal ARIMA model (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 was found to be the appropriate model based on its performance. The model had the least root mean square value and also the residuals were found to have no correlation.

Analysis of Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in the Damanganga Basin: Western India

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Vitthal Anwat ◽  
Pramodkumar Hire ◽  
Uttam Pawar ◽  
Rajendra Gunjal
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Western India ◽  
Type I ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling

Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) method was introduced by Fuller in 1914 to understand the magnitude and frequency of floods. The present study is carried out using the two most widely accepted probability distributions for FFA in the world namely, Gumbel Extreme Value type I (GEVI) and Log Pearson type III (LP-III). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Anderson-Darling (AD) methods were used to select the most suitable probability distribution at sites in the Damanganga Basin. Moreover, discharges were estimated for various return periods using GEVI and LP-III. The recurrence interval of the largest peak flood on record (Qmax) is 107 years (at Nanipalsan) and 146 years (at Ozarkhed) as per LP-III. Flood Frequency Curves (FFC) specifies that LP-III is the best-fitted probability distribution for FFA of the Damanganga Basin. Therefore, estimated discharges and return periods by LP-III probability distribution are more reliable and can be used for designing hydraulic structures.

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