scholarly journals Populasi, One Child Policy dan Reformasi Cina

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-101
Author(s):  
YUSNARIDA EKA NIZMI NIZMI

Abstract One child policy has been implemented  in 1979 and the effects both  negative and positive clearly to women. One child policy is a simple China’s economic growth grand strategy that was design to reduce population growth, infrastructure problems,  labour and resources. This policy obviously effective in controlling almost all family just to have one child. The problem is that one child policy should be noted only just for short term, implemented for giving state to get its economic goals and to socialize the values of small family and not for long term solution.  Various critics defense this policy because of its unrespect and harmful for women and also breaking the human rights. This research analyze one child policy and its implications to decline labour ratio which threat economic stability because of aging population. China government  needs to be focus on the meaning of growth in wholistic and more understand that economic growth is also include better echievements in social politics and economic policy dimension. These dimensions will not be reached if the government keep going its attention only on liberalization and modal accumulation.   Keywords: Population Policy, One Child Policy, Family Planning, Economic Growth.   Sejak One Child Policy diimplementasikan pada tahun 1979, terlihat dengan jelas pengaruh positif dan negatifnya terhadap kaum perempuan. Kebijakan satu anak adalah salah satu bagian sederhana dari grand strategi pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina, yang dirancang untuk membatasi pertumbuhan populasi  dan mengurangi tekanan infrastruktur, ketenagakerjaan dan sumberdaya.  Kebijakan ini efektif dalam membatasi  hampir semua keluarga hanya memiliki satu anak. Masalahnya adalah bahwa kebijakan ini harus dipandang sebagai sebuah program jangka pendek, diimplementasikan untuk memberi negara kesempatan mencapai tujuan-tujuan ekonominya dan membantu mensosialisasikan nilai dari keluarga kecil, dan bukan sebagai solusi jangka panjang untuk tekanan ekonomi. Kritik terhadap kebijakan ini sudah banyak bermunculan, kebijakan ini membahayakan kaum perempuan dan implikasinya melanggar hak asasi manusi. Tulisan ini menganalisa posisi kebijakan satu anak dan implementasinya yang banyak mendapatkan pertentanga dan penurunan rasio tenaga kerja yang pensiun yang dapat mengancam stabilititas ekonomi Cina karena persoalan “aging population”. Pemerintah Cina perlu untuk memfokuskan makna pertumbuhan secara holistik dan lebih memahami bahwa pertumbuhan juga mencakup pencapaian yang lebih baik dalam dimensi sosial, politik, dan kebijakan ekonomi.  Dimensi-dimensi ini tidak akan dapat dicapai jika pemerintah terus melanjutkan perhatiannya hanya pada liberalisasi dan akumulasi modal.   Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Populasi, Kebijakan satu anak, Perencanaan Keluarga, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi  

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-31
Author(s):  
Dara Resmi Asbiantari ◽  
Manuntun Parulian Hutagaol ◽  
Alla Asmara

Economic growth is a matter of the economy in the long term and is influenced by various factors. This study aimed to analyze the effect of the agricultural export, industrial export, mining export, import of capital goods, government spending and gross fixed capital formation to economic growth of Indonesia. The analytical method used was Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Cochrane-Orcutt method. This study uses secondary data quarterly time series from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1 which is obtained from the Ministry of Trade, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia and the Capital Investment Coordinating Board. The results showed that on the first model to see the effect of the aggregate exports on economic growth show that imports of capital goods have a significant influence in the short term to economic growth. While in the long term, the variables that have a significant impact on economic growth is GFCF. While the second model to see the role of exports by sector to economic growth getting results that exports in the industrial sector has a significant influence both in the short-term and long-term to economic growth. It concluded that outward looking policies has an effective impact to be applied in Indonesia if the Government to develop exports in the industrial sector.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-31
Author(s):  
Dara Resmi Asbiantari ◽  
Manuntun Parulian Hutagaol ◽  
Alla Asmara

Economic growth is a matter of the economy in the long term and is influenced by various factors. This study aimed to analyze the effect of the agricultural export, industrial export, mining export, import of capital goods, government spending and gross fixed capital formation to economic growth of Indonesia. The analytical method used was Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Cochrane-Orcutt method. This study uses secondary data quarterly time series from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1 which is obtained from the Ministry of Trade, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia and the Capital Investment Coordinating Board. The results showed that on the first model to see the effect of the aggregate exports on economic growth show that imports of capital goods have a significant influence in the short term to economic growth. While in the long term, the variables that have a significant impact on economic growth is GFCF. While the second model to see the role of exports by sector to economic growth getting results that exports in the industrial sector has a significant influence both in the short-term and long-term to economic growth. It concluded that outward looking policies has an effective impact to be applied in Indonesia if the Government to develop exports in the industrial sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ari Setyawan ◽  
I Wayan Suparta ◽  
Neli Aida

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the effect of economic globalization on the unemployment rate in Indonesia and the relationship of other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate, and real wage with unemployment. The data used is in the form of annual time series data from 1986 to 2018, whose research results are analyzed using the ARDL method. This study concludes that economic globalization can reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia in the short term, although in the long term, it increases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation in the short and long term have not been able to reduce the current unemployment rate, while the increase in real wages has reduced the unemployment rate in the short term, although not in the long term. By looking at these results, we need to be wary of economic globalization because economic globalization has a destructive impact in the long term. So that concrete and consistent efforts are needed from the government, the private sector, and other stakeholders so that Indonesia gets the maximum benefit from economic globalization, especially in job creation and reducing unemployment.JEL : B22, E22.Keywords : unemployment, economic globalization, economic growth, inflation, real wages. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan melihat pengaruh tingkat globalisasi ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia serta hubungan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat upah riil dengan tingkat pengangguran. Data yang dipergunakan berupa data time series tahunan dari periode 1986 hingga 2018 yang hasil penelitiannya dianalisis menggunakan metode ARDL. Kesimpulan penelitian ini yaitu globalisasi ekonomi mampu mengurangi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek meskipun dalam jangka panjang malah meningkatkan tingkat pengangguran. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjangnya belum mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran yang ada sedangkan naiknya upah riil mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran dalam jangka pendek meskipun tidak dalam jangka panjang. Dengan melihat hasil ini, kita perlu waspada terhadap globalisasi ekonomi karena globalisasi ekonomi ini memiliki dampak buruk dalam jangka panjang sehingga dibutuhkan upaya kongkrit dan konsisten baik dari pemerintah, swasta maupun para stakeholder lain agar Indonesia memperoleh manfaat yang sebesar-besarnya dari globalisasi ekonomi khusunya dalam upaya penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengurangi pengangguran.


Author(s):  
Ekrem Erdem ◽  
Oğuzhan Türker

With the increase in globalization, the liberalisation tendencies have appeared on countries’ economic policies as well as at other areas. The countries have performed liberalisation in almost all the areas of economy by increasing their economic growth. Economic liberalisation movements have especially intensified on foreign trade and finance. The aim of this paper is to exhibit the relationship between economic liberalisation and economic growth for the Central Asian Republics. There are few studies that examine the relationship between economic liberalisation and growth for the Central Asian Republics. In this paper, the relationship between economic liberalisation and economic growth has been tested for 1998-2011 period on the six Central Asian Republics which are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Nine variables about economic liberalisation have been taken into account in the analysis. We reached two main results. Firstly, the countries have high index scores in terms of business freedom, trade freedom, fiscal freedom, government size and monetary freedom, while they have low index scores in terms of investment freedom, financial freedom, property rights, freedom from corruption. Secondly, there is no long-term relationship between economic freedom and growth for all countries. The available relations that we found out are short-term character.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-191
Author(s):  
Osadume C. Richard ◽  
Edih University Ovuokeroye

Abstract The objective of the study presented in this article is to examine the relationship between external debt (EXDT), external reserves (EXRS), total debt service costs (TDS) and Nigeria’s economic growth (RGDP) and how these variables impact on the Nigerian transport economy employing profligacy theory. The study used secondary data for Nigeria for the period 1979 to 2019 obtained from the International Debt Office (WBG). The econometric techniques used include OLS, Granger causality and Engle-Granger cointegration at a 0.05 confidence level. The results show that EXDT has a statistically significant negative relationship with EXRS, with no statistically significant relationship existing with RGDP and TDS in the short term. All the variables showed significant cointegration over the long term, with the conclusion that the relationship between EXRS and EXDT is negatively significant in the short term, while the other variables are insignificant. The recommendations of the study include, that the government and monetary authorities should endeavour to reduce the creation of foreign debt for nonreproductive projects in key sectors due to its adverse effect on external reserves, and instead pursue aid, grants and domestic long-term loan options necessary for effective growth of the transport and other key sectors of the economy.


Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Mohammadreza Masoumib ◽  
Fatemeh Barkhi

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth and inflation by using government expenditure and taxes. For this purpose, selected data from developing countries is used for the period 1990-2011. PVAR approach has been applied to study the effect of shocks on macro variables. The results of impulse response function and variance decomposition implies that economic growth will increase through government expenditure shock in short term, but in long term it is the opposite. The government expenditure shock decrease inflation. Shock of taxes, in short run, promotes slightly economic growth and in long term have no effect on growth. Moreover, at the beginning of the period, inflation is reduced following total tax shocks, but it slightly is increased in subsequent periods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 8172
Author(s):  
Pu Liao ◽  
Hui Su ◽  
Dragan Pamučar

The sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS) has been challenged by the ageing of the population and the decline in economic growth. This article establishes a Markov model for CBPS to examine whether the reforms, including ending the one-child policy and raising retirement the age, will shrink the negative income–expenditure gap. We find that the negative income–expenditure gap will destroy CBPS in the future in the absence of fiscal transfer or reform. Ending the one-child policy will increase the number of contributors and then reduce the gap in the short term but will worsen the gap in the long term. Raising the retirement age will have several positive effects overall while increasing expenditures in certain periods. The contributions of this article are describing CBPS in detail and establishing a precise model to analyze the effectiveness of reforms.


2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (30) ◽  
pp. 31-49
Author(s):  
Joydeb Sasmal ◽  

In this paper we analyze how the government in a democratic setup of the developing world manipulates the fiscal instruments to maximize its political gain so that it can retain power. The government and the voters in low income countries are generally selfish and myopic in the sense that the electorates prefer to get direct and immediate benefits from the government while the government, in turn, tries to seek majority support in the election, by adopting short term and distributive policies instead of going for long term growth. Using the theoretical structure of the existing literature, and making modifications therein, this study demonstrates that the optimal tax rate, public expenditure shares and growth rate are determined in terms of technological and behavioral parameters. The simulation results show that if political gain from distributive policies is high, the government will allocate a greater share of the fund for distributive purposes adversely affecting economic growth.


Subject The abolition of the one-child policy. Significance As of January 1 this year, the law permits all married couples in China to have two children, abolishing the 'one-child policy' in place since 1980 -- a move the government believes will increase the supply of labour and ease the pressures of an ageing society. Impacts Abolishing the one-child policy will not be enough to address labour shortages and the problems of an ageing society. More births will soon boost consumption in areas such as food, clothing and education. In the short term, more births will increase the dependency ratio, which is already rising due to ageing. The net addition to China's population will be limited, and its economic impact will accrue only gradually over many years.


2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012026
Author(s):  
Z Yusuf ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
G Syamni ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu

Abstract This study was conducted to examine the effect of the variable use of CO2 emission gas and export variables on Indonesia’s economic growth. The data used in this study are time series data from the two variables for the period 2004 to 2019. All data were obtained from the world bank and accessed through the www.data.worldbank.org. The data analysis method used in this study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach. The ARDL model is used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of CO2 gas emission variables and export variables. The results of the study found that the variable use of CO2 emission gas in the short term had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a significant positive effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, in the long term, the variable use of CO2 emission gas and the export variable has no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. This finding shows that Indonesia’s economic growth is still determined by exports, but in the long term the government must work harder to increase its exports. In addition, export activities must not lead to the use of excessive CO2 emissions.


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