scholarly journals Loan Characteristics as Predictors of Default in Commercial Mortgage Portfolios

Author(s):  
Nicole Lux ◽  
Sotiris Tsolacos

This paper examines the role of loan characteristics in mortgage default probability for different mortgage lenders in the UK. The accuracy of default prediction is tested with two statistical methods, a probit model and linear discriminant analysis, using a unique dataset of defaulted commercial loan portfolios provided by sixty-six financial institutions. Both models establish that the attributes of the underlying real estate asset and the lender are significant factors in determining default probability for commercial mortgages. In addition to traditional risk factors such as loan-to-value and debt servicing coverage ratio lenders and regulators should consider loan characteristics to assess more accurately probabilities of default.

Author(s):  
Feryad A. Hussain

Radicalisation to violent action is not just a problem in foreign lands. Research has identified numerous politico–psychosocial factors to explain why young people from the UK are now joining terrorist groups such as ISIS. Our understanding has been expanded by the accounts of “returnees” who have subsequently either self-deradicalised or joined a government deradicalisation programme in the role of an Intervention Provider (IP). These individuals are now key to the deradicalisation programme. This article presents the reflections of a clinical psychologist who worked within a social healthcare team managing psychosocial issues related to radicalisation, in conjunction with an allocated IP. The project involved individuals from the Muslim community and, as such, issues discussed are specific to this group. It is acknowledged that the process in general is universally applicable to all groups though specifics may vary (under Trust agreement, details may not be discussed). This article also aims to share basic information on the current Home Office deradicalisation programme and raises questions about the current intervention. It also offers reflections on how the work of IPs may be facilitated and supported by clinical/counselling psychologists and psychotherapists.


1998 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 51-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Henshilwood ◽  
J. Green ◽  
D. N. Lees

This study investigates human enteric virus contamination of a shellfish harvesting area. Samples were analysed over a 14-month period for Small Round Structured Viruses (SRSVs) using a previously developed nested RT-PCR. A clear seasonal difference was observed with the largest numbers of positive samples obtained during the winter period (October to March). This data concurs with the known winter association of gastroenteric illness due to oyster consumption in the UK and also with the majority of the outbreaks associated with shellfish harvested from this area during the study period. RT-PCR positive amplicons were further characterised by cloning and sequencing. Sequence analysis of the positive samples identified eleven SRSV strains, of both Genogroup I and Genogroup II, occurring throughout the study period. Many shellfish samples contained a mixture of strains with a few samples containing up to three different strains with both Genogroups represented. The observed common occurrence of strain mixtures may have implications for the role of shellfish as a vector for dissemination of SRSV strains. These results show that nested RT-PCR can identify SRSV contamination in shellfish harvesting areas. Virus monitoring of shellfish harvesting areas by specialist laboratories using RT-PCR is a possible approach to combating the transmission of SRSVs by molluscan shellfish and could potentially offer significantly enhanced levels of public health protection.


2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (12) ◽  
pp. 6987-6995
Author(s):  
NORBERT NECKEL ◽  
MARCO MICHAEL ◽  
DANIEL TROELTZSCH ◽  
JONAS WÜSTER ◽  
STEFFEN KOERDT ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. 026858092199450
Author(s):  
Nicola Maggini ◽  
Tom Montgomery ◽  
Simone Baglioni

Against the background of crisis and cuts, citizens can express solidarity with groups in various ways. Using novel survey data this article explores the attitudes and behaviours of citizens in their expressions of solidarity with disabled people and in doing so illuminates the differences and similarities across two European contexts: Italy and the UK. The findings reveal pools of solidarity with disabled people across both countries that have on the one hand similar foundations such as the social embeddedness and social trust of citizens, while on the other hand contain some differences, such as the more direct and active nature of solidarity in Italy compared to the UK and the role of religiosity as an important determinant, particularly in Italy. Across both countries the role of ‘deservingness’ was key to understanding solidarity, and the study’s conclusions raise questions about a solidarity embedded by a degree of paternalism and even religious piety.


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1514
Author(s):  
Shing Fung Lee ◽  
Maja Nikšić ◽  
Bernard Rachet ◽  
Maria-Jose Sanchez ◽  
Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez

We explored the role of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 incidence among cancer patients during the first wave of the pandemic. We conducted a case-control study within the UK Biobank cohort linked to the COVID-19 tests results available from 16 March 2020 until 23 August 2020. The main exposure variable was socioeconomic status, assessed using the Townsend Deprivation Index. Among 18,917 participants with an incident malignancy in the UK Biobank cohort, 89 tested positive for COVID-19. The overall COVID-19 incidence was 4.7 cases per 1000 incident cancer patients (95%CI 3.8–5.8). Compared with the least deprived cancer patients, those living in the most deprived areas had an almost three times higher risk of testing positive (RR 2.6, 95%CI 1.1–5.8). Other independent risk factors were ethnic minority background, obesity, unemployment, smoking, and being diagnosed with a haematological cancer for less than five years. A consistent pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 among incident cancer patients in the UK highlights the need to prioritise the cancer patients living in the most deprived areas in vaccination planning. This socio-demographic profiling of vulnerable cancer patients at increased risk of infection can inform prevention strategies and policy improvements for the coming pandemic waves.


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