scholarly journals The Information and Analytical Model of the Decision-Making Process for the Development of Health Insurance Programs

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (516) ◽  
pp. 119-133
Author(s):  
O. А. Klepikova ◽  
◽  
Z. M. Sokolovska ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Insurance Portfolio ◽  
Insurance Product ◽  
Product Risk ◽  
Definition Of

The article is aimed at studying and automating the stages of decision-making process for the development and implementation of health insurance products using the economic, mathematical, and simulation modeling. When analyzing the scientific works of scholars on the development of health insurance in Ukraine, the main stages of the decision-making process are allocated, the major of them are: the market need for an insurance product in the external environment; clear definition of the company’s tactical and strategic goals; examining the properties and characteristics of the insurance product; risk assessment and profitability of the insurance product. In the course of the study, the modeling of risk assessment, profitability of health insurance programs and analysis of the obtained results were carried out in detail. It is substantiated that a comprehensive analysis of the risk and profitability of health insurance programs will allow to form the necessary insurance reserves, to ensure the competitive position of an insurance company and to fulfill the targeted goals. If statistical information is available, any health insurance programs, including the COVID-19 insurance programs that require an assessment of pandemic risk, which requires special attention from both society and insurance, can be analyzed. It should be noted that modeling is a key element for assessing and managing pandemic risk. Prospects for further research in this direction are the expansion of the base of economic, mathematical and analytical models for assessing the risk of insurance portfolio and the inclusion in the simulation model of a wider range of factors of both the external and the internal environment.

DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS FOR DIAGNOSTIC DIABETES BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC METODS

2021 ◽  
pp. 90-95
Author(s):  
Евгений Николаевич Коровин ◽  
Екатерина Ивановна Новикова ◽  
Олег Валерьевич Родионов
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Patient Information ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Definition Of

В статье рассматриваются разработки методов интеллектуальной поддержки процесса диагностики сахарного диабета, а также определение его типа. В последние годы количество людей, страдающих данным заболеванием, неуклонно растет, а без своевременной диагностики эта патология может нанести огромный вред организму человека. Сахарный диабет 1 типа опасен тем, что в основном возникает у людей молодого возраста. Оперативное обнаружение диабета, а также определение его типа, поможет не только избежать возможных осложнений, но и в некоторых случаях предотвратить смерть пациента. Информационные технологии все чаще используются в различных сферах деятельности для разработки новых или совершенствования существующих методов обработки данных, особенно это можно заметить в сфере медицины. В настоящее время врач самостоятельно ставит диагноз, основываясь на результатах различных анализов, однако, для ускорения процесса принятия решения, можно воспользоваться методами математического моделирования, а именно: моделями диагностики диабета на основе нечеткой логики. Для наибольшего удобства данный способ распознавания заболевания впоследствии можно реализовать в информационно-программное обеспечение, которое сможет еще больше увеличить эффективность и скорость распознавания патологии The article discusses the issues of the incidence of diabetes in the population, in particular, the definition of its type. In recent years, the number of people suffering from this disease has been steadily growing, and without timely diagnosis, this pathology can cause enormous harm to the human body. Prompt detection of diabetes, as well as determination of its type, will help not only avoid possible complications, but also in some cases prevent the death of the patient. Information technology is increasingly being used in various fields of activity to develop new or improve existing methods of data processing, especially in the field of medicine. Currently, the doctor independently makes a diagnosis based on the results of various analyzes, however, to speed up the decision-making process, you can use the methods of mathematical modeling, namely, models of diabetes diagnostics based on fuzzy logic. For the greatest convenience, this method of disease recognition can subsequently be implemented in information software, which can further increase the efficiency and speed of pathology recognition

scholarly journals Fuzzy Parameterized Complex Neutrosophic Soft Expert Set for Decision under Uncertainty

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashraf Al-Quran ◽  
Nasruddin Hassan ◽  
Shawkat Alkhazaleh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decision Under Uncertainty ◽  
Complex State ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Real State

In the definition of the complex neutrosophic soft expert set (CNSES), parameters set is a classical set, and the parameters have the same degree of importance, which is considered as 1. This poses a limitation in modeling of some problems. This paper introduces the concept of fuzzy parameterized complex neutrosophic soft expert set (FP-CNSES) to handle this issue by assigning a degree of importance to each of the problem parameters. We further develop FP-CNSES by establishing the concept of weighted fuzzy parameterized complex neutrosophic soft expert set (WFP-CNSES) based on the idea that each expert has a relative weight. These new mathematical frameworks reduce the chance of unfairness in the decision making process. Some essential operations with their properties and relevant laws related to the notion of FP-CNSES are defined and verified. The notation of mapping on fuzzy parameterized complex neutrosophic soft expert classes is defined and some properties of fuzzy parameterized complex neutrosophic soft expert images and inverse images was investigated. FP-CNSES is used to put forth an algorithm on decision-making by converting it from complex state to real state and subsequently provided the detailed decision steps. Then, we provide the comparison of FP-CNSES to the current methods to show the ascendancy of our proposed method.

scholarly journals THE INTEGRATED RATING MECHANISM APPLICATION TO THE DECISION OF THE PROJECT SELECTION PROBLEM

2020 ◽  
pp. 104-113
Author(s):  
Tatiana Kataeva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Organizational Management ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Organizational Systems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Project Assessment ◽  
Functional Process

The article describes the model of a complex organizational management system where the several approaches are simultaneously implementing: functional, process and design. The relevance of applying integrated assessment mechanisms to management tasks in organizational systems, in particular, to solving the problems of coordinated decision-making, is substantiated. The reasons for the inconsistency of interests in the decision-making process are described. Examples of management tasks in organizational systems are given. The example of solving the problem of selecting projects into a portfolio using the integrated assessment mechanism is considered in detail. A set of evaluation criteria is given and convolution matrices are described. The development plan for the project assessment mechanism including risk assessment, taking into account the rank of expert is proposed.

scholarly journals A STEPPED HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION FOLLOWING MILITARY ACTIONS

2018 ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
S. M. Orel ◽  
O. V. Ivashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Error Propagation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Propagation Methods ◽  
State Of The Environment

Military activities resulting in chemical pollution of the environment could produce a long-term impact on human health, whereas under certain conditions even ultra-low concentrations of some substances might provoke cancer, without noticeable toxic effect. According to modern views on carcinogenesis, the effect of carcinogens on human health does not have a threshold level of concentration. With the current deplorable state of the environment and an urgent need to improve it in view, we argue that there is a critical need for the mechanism that could assess the real state of the environment and would be instrumental for optimal decision-making process aimed at reducing environmental costs. The paper reports a case-study and exemplifies that a stepped health risk assessment is appropriate and helpful in case of environmental pollution following military actions. It also highlights the results of the risk assessment for life of the population living in the vicinity of hostilities. The results of the possible risk calculations concerning the damage non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic compounds could cause to the people living in the vicinity of hostilities were obtained in stages; the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods and the two-dimensional Monte Carlo procedure were used to estimate the probability of different outcomes due to the intervention of random variables. It is shown that, in comparison with the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo procedure for estimating the probability of different outcomes provides additional information for the decision-making process, concerning either taking some specific measures or not. The findings of the study are the following: the assessment and subsequent analysis of environmental risk provide much more relevant information for taking an environmental decision, as compared to the threshold concentration methodology. The risk assessment should be carried out in stages, starting from simple (deterministic) to more complex ones (first the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods, and later, two-dimensional Monte Carlo method), whenever there arise any of the following needs: if it is necessary to establish priorities among the areas, polluters, pollutants, pollutant transfer routes, categories of population and other risk factors; if resources for environmental conservation are limited; if mistaken decisions could generate destructive results; if there is a lack of information necessary to take a competent decision.

scholarly journals Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contaminated by Oil Pollutants Based on Numerical Modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Bai ◽  
Kai Song ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Adam Khalifa Mohamed ◽  
Chenya Mou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Reference Sequence ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Theoretical Support

To provide theoretical support for the protection of dispersed drinking water sources of groundwater, we need to accurately evaluate the time and scope of groundwater pollution hazards to human health. This helps the decision-making process for remediation of polluted soil and groundwater in service stations. In this study, we conducted such an evaluation by coupling numerical modeling with a health risk assessment. During the research, soil and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for 20 pollutants. Fifty-six percent of the heavy contaminants and 100% of the organic contaminants exhibited maximum values at the location of the oil depot. Gray correlation analysis showed that the correlation between background samples and soil underlying the depot was 0.375–0.567 (barely significant to insignificant). The correlation between the reference sequence of other points was 0.950–0.990 (excellent correlation). The correlation of environmental impact after oil depot leakage followed the order: organic pollutants > heavy metals > inorganic pollutants. The groundwater simulation status and predictions indicated that non-carcinogenic health risks covered 25,462 m2 at the time of investigation, and were predicted to extend to 29,593 m2 after five years and to 39,873 m2 after 10 years. Carcinogenic health risks covered 21,390 m2 at the time of investigation, and were predicted to extend to 40,093 m2 after five years and to 53,488 m2 after 10 years. This study provides theoretical support for the protection of a dispersed drinking water source such as groundwater, and also helps the decision-making process for groundwater and soil environment improvement.

Training trainers in risk assessment

1997 ◽  
Vol 170 (S32) ◽  
pp. 35-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Harris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Apprenticeship Model ◽  
Based Medicine ◽  
Early Training

Risk assessment has always been an essential part of all medical practice, and doctors have always been trained to make rapid assessment of risk. Much of the early training of doctors in both medicine and surgery centres on risk assessment. However, the method of acquiring that knowledge is predominantly through the apprenticeship model with observation by the trainee of the trainer's decision-making process. Those decisions, however, are often skewed and biased by a whole variety of influences, rather than always being based on scientific evidence. Clearly the increasing influence of evidence-based medicine will help this. At one extreme, however, there are heroic surgeons taking unnecessary risk or taking on cases which might more appropriately have been left without treatment, and at the other extreme, consultants who may feel demoralised or depressed might well become nihilistic about medicine and therefore might not attempt to treat cases that are treatable.

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