Near-Term Loss of Habitat for Homo sapiens

In the face of the severe challenge of global climate change, all countries find it difficult to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2[Formula: see text]C above pre-industrial levels, let alone 1.5[Formula: see text]C. In recent years, geoengineering has gained increasingly more attention from the international community as an unconventional option to deal with climate change, and it has also provoked heated debates. This paper attempts to sort out related concepts, the focus of controversies and the research progress in terms of geoengineering, analyzes the international background of heated debate over geoengineering, probes into the governance of geoengineering under the framework of coping with climate change, and offers some suggestions for China to make strategic plans for geoengineering development.

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Will COVID-19 Trigger Extinction of All Life on Earth?

Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews ◽

10.33140/eesrr.03.02.04 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

Keyword(s):

Homo Sapiens ◽

Masking Effect ◽

The Novel ◽

Industrial Activity ◽

Global Average ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Global Dimming ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Life On Earth ◽

Abrupt Rise

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus and the associated COVID-19 is causing an abrupt reduction in industrial activity. As a result of the associated reduction in the aerosol masking effect (“global dimming”), Earth might experience an abrupt rise in global-average temperature. The current temperature of Earth is the highest with Homo sapiens present, suggesting that an abrupt rise in global-average temperature could destroy habitat for humans on Earth. Human extinction could result.

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Lithium-Ion Batteries: Latest Advances and Prospects

Batteries ◽

10.3390/batteries7010008 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 8

Author(s):

Mohammad Rahimi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Lithium Ion Batteries ◽

20Th Century ◽

Lithium Ion ◽

Global Average ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2

The anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), has resulted in a notable climate change and an increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century [...]

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The Myth of Sustainability

Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews ◽

10.33140/eesrr.03.03.03 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Extinction ◽

Homo Sapiens ◽

Industrial Activity ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Extinction Event ◽

Industrial Civilization ◽

The Face ◽

Near Term ◽

Mass Extinction Event

Humans are able to sustain neither industrial civilization nor our species, Homo sapiens. Whereas many pre-civilized groups practiced sustainability, contemporary industrial civilization is not sustainable. Indeed, global industrial civilization underlies abrupt, irreversible climate change and also the ongoing Mass Extinction Event. We continue to overheat Earth, which is already at the highest global-average temperature with our species present. The rapidity of environmental change is increasing and will continue to accelerate with either increased industrial activity or, paradoxically, diminished industrial activity. This paper offers a path forward for all of us, and especially those who wish to educate others, in light of these daunting facts. If our species is destined for extinction, as all species are, then how shall we proceed? If our species is destined for extinction in the near term, as seems apparent, then how shall we proceed? What is the role of educators in the face of an existential threat?

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The Problem

10.1093/oso/9780197502556.003.0002 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 11-54

Author(s):

Eelco J. Rohling

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Energy Balance ◽

Greenhouse Effect ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Global Average ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Regional Impacts ◽

Business As Usual

This chapter frames the problem of climate change. It opens with a brief overview of Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect and then outlines the root causes of the problem along with key controls in the climate system that determine its responses. This is followed by an introduction of spatial variability and fluctuations through time in the expressions of climate change, which are key to understanding regional impacts. Such geographic and temporal variations do not invalidate the existence of the global average temperature increase, but merely cause fluctuations around the global average. Finally, the chapter shows that achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit will require the removal of 260–1030 billion tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The low-end estimate applies to best-case scenarios and the high-end estimate to scenarios where business-as-usual (as in the past two decades) emissions are allowed until 2030 or beyond.

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Humanity Can Still Stop Climate Change by Implementing a New International Climate Agreement and Applying Radical New Technology

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13246703 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (24) ◽

pp. 6703

Author(s):

Zvonimir Glasnovic ◽

Karmen Margeta ◽

Nataša Zabukovec Logar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Technology ◽

Electric Energy ◽

Green Economy ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Economic Policies ◽

Global Average ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Intensive Use ◽

International Climate

There is a broad consensus worldwide that anthropogenic climate change is a scientific fact. Likewise, the fact is that the UN’s efforts to address climate change over the last 28 years have not been successful enough. It is evident that the global average temperature is on the rise (1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2019). A particular concern comes from the fact that the Paris Agreement on keeping increases in the global average temperature to below +2 °C is an unenforceable ambition, since the focus is more on consequences than causes. In addition, economic policies regarding global taxes, as well as adaptation and mitigation measures, are questionable, as there is no evidence that changes in the climate system will proceed at the same rate in the coming years. This paper proposes an engineering approach that considers all relevant aspects of the climate change problem and proposes a new policy, named the “Climate New Deal”. It deals with: (i) Reorientation from a high-carbon economy to a green economy; (ii) The intensive use of radically new technology, e.g., “Seawater Steam Engine” technology for the simultaneous production of thermal and electric energy and drinking water; and (iii) The intensive use of energy efficient technologies and RES technologies, especially in transport.

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Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ◽

10.3402/tellusa.v58i4.14805 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

J. RÃ¤isÃ¤nen ◽

L. Ruokolainen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ensemble Technique ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Near Term

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Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Chanchai Petpongpan ◽

Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽

Supattra Visessri ◽

Duangrudee Kositgittiwong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Extreme Events ◽

River Basins ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Extreme Floods ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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The Water Needs of Grapevines in Central Poland

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11030416 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 416

Author(s):

Barbara Jagosz ◽

Stanisław Rolbiecki ◽

Roman Rolbiecki ◽

Ariel Łangowski ◽

Hicran A. Sadan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temporal Variability ◽

Time Trend ◽

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Growing Season ◽

Water Requirements ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Central Poland ◽

Crop Coefficients ◽

Near Future

Climate warming increases the water needs of plants. The aim of this study was to estimate the water needs of grapevines in central Poland. Water needs were calculated using the crop coefficients method. Reference evapotranspiration was assessed by the Blaney–Criddle’s equation, modified for climate conditions in Poland. Crop coefficients were assumed according to the Doorenbos and Pruitt method. Water needs were calculated using the data from four meteorological stations. Rainfall deficit with the probability occurrence of normal years, medium dry years, and very dry years was determined by the Ostromęcki’s method. Water needs of grapevines during the average growing season were estimated at 438 mm. Upward time trend in the water needs both in the period of May–October and June–August was estimated. Temporal variability in the water needs was significant for all of the provinces. These changes were mainly impacted by a significant increasing tendency in mean air temperature and less by precipitation totals that did not show a clear changing tendency. Due to climate change, vineyards will require irrigation in the near future. The use of resource-efficient irrigation requires a precise estimate of the grapevines’ water needs. The study identified the water requirements for grapevines in central Poland.

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Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app9194155 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (19) ◽

pp. 4155

Author(s):

Pérez-Sánchez ◽

Jimeno-Sáez ◽

Senent-Aparicio ◽

Díaz-Palmero ◽

de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Southern Spain ◽

Burned Area ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Absolute Deviation ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Mediterranean Regions ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽

Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

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