scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Utilisation of Natural Resources in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-454
Author(s):  
Susan Nwadinachi Akinwalere
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of FDI on the utilization of natural resources in Nigeria. This article uses annual data from 1970 to 2015 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, a testing procedure for level relationships developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). The ARDL cointegration approach examines the long-run relationship between FDI and natural resources on one hand and GDP on the other hand. The empirical results indicate that aggregate FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on both natural resources and GDP in Nigeria. The ‘OIL’ variable presents a positive coefficient while GDP presents a negative estimated coefficient. From a policy point of view, countries such as Nigeria, endowed with natural resources, should pursue policies targeted at full deregulation (privatisation) of their natural resource sector to better utilise the abundance of their natural resources and attract additional FDI. Regarding GDP, there should be concerted efforts to boost the performance of the non-oil sector in Nigeria through more investments in the agricultural and industrial sectors which will make the growth of the economy spread across other sectors and, in turn, encourage national economic growth and development, reducing the possibility of the ‘resource curse’. This is the first paper that employs ARDL in determining the impact of FDI on the utilization of natural resources in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waliullah Waliullah ◽  
Mehmood Khan Kakar ◽  
Rehmatullah Kakar ◽  
Wakeel Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This article is an attempt to examine the short and long-run relationship between the trade balance, income, money supply, and real exchange rate in the case of Pakistan’s economy. Income and money variables are included in the model in order to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments, while the real exchange rate is used to evaluate the conventional approach of elasticities (Marshall Lerner condition). The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is applied to annual data for the period 1970 to 2005 in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) are used to draw further inferences. The result of the bounds test indicates that there is a stable long-run relationship between the trade balance and income, money supply, and exchange rate variables. The estimated results show that exchange rate depreciation is positively related to the trade balance in the long and short run, consistent with the Marshall Lerner condition. The results provide strong evidence that money supply and income play a strong role in determining the behavior of the trade balance. The exchange rate regime can help improve the trade balance but will have a weaker influence than growth and monetary policy.

Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

The article aims to investigate the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Bangladesh both in short and long runs. In doing so, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing has been employed for cointegration, and Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used for short-run dynamics. The empirical psychology has confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore our estimated results reveal that nominal devaluation tends to decrease income inequality. Though economic growth appears to improve income distribution, non-linear link between both the variables, however, depicts Kuznets’ inverted-U curve (1955). Financial development causes further deterioration in income distribution. Trade openness contributes to income inequality as discussed in Leontief Paradox.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Radhia Amairia ◽  
Bouzid Amaira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

The achievement of an effective infrastructure, reliable and fair, is essential for economic growth. Indeed, the transport infrastructure is essential to the prosperity of regions. To investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth, we use the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), we find that transport infrastructure is cointegrated with economic performance, indicating the affirmed presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among them. We use annual data for the period from 1980 to 2013. The study found that the transport infrastructure and investment in transport infrastructure in Tunisia have a significant positive contribution to growth, which shows that each impact is strong and statistically significant. The Tunisian experience suggests that it is necessary to design an economic policy that will improve the transport infrastructure and to increase investment made to the sector for sustainable economic growth in Tunisia. It is necessary to improve the existing road and rail networks. JEL Classification: F63, L91, R41

scholarly journals A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
David Allen ◽  
Michael McAleer
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The paper features an examination of the link between the behaviour of the FTSE 100 and S&P500 Indexes in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The attraction of NARDL is that it represents the simplest method available of modelling combined short- and long-run asymmetries. The bounds testing framework adopted means that it can be applied to stationary and non-stationary time series vectors, or combinations of both. The data comprise a daily FTSE adjusted price series, commencing in April 2009 and terminating in March 2021, and a corresponding daily S&P500 Index adjusted-price series obtained from Yahoo Finance. The data period includes all the gyrations caused by the Brexit vote in the UK, beginning with the vote to leave in 2016 and culminating in the actual agreement to withdraw in January 2020. It was then followed by the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 from the beginning of 2020. The results of the analysis suggest that movements in the contemporaneous levels of daily S&P500 Index levels have very significant effects on the behaviour of the levels of the daily FTSE 100 Index. They also suggest that negative movements have larger impacts than do positive movements in S&P500 levels, and that long-term multiplier impacts take about 10 days to take effect. These effects are supported by the results of quantile regression analysis. A key result is that weak form market efficiency does not apply in the second period.

scholarly journals Impact of Institutional Quality on Multilateral Aid in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezebuilo Romanus Ukwueze ◽  
Uchenna Casmir Ugwu ◽  
Ogochukwu Anastasia Okafor
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Multilateral Aid ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The linkage between quality of institutions and economic performance of nations has generated a lot of interest among scholars, due to their influence on development of many countries and effective use of resources including foreign aid from multilateral organizations. Two strands of theories emerge on the institutions-multilateral aids nexus: those for benefits of aid to growth and development; and those for harms caused by aid. The research objective is to investigate the impact of institutional quality on multilateral aid in Nigeria. To do this, the study applied auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Data for the study were sourced from the ICRG data, WGI data, QoG database, Transparency International, and World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings show that institutional quality variables do not have any influence on the multilateral aid in Nigeria, except the ‘independence of judiciary’ which appeared statistically significant. In the short-run analysis, the disequilibrium in the long-run equilibrium is corrected for in the next quarter period by about 25%; almost all the variables are statistically and significantly influencing multilateral aid. It is therefore recommended that donor agencies should consider other factors that negatively influence official development assistance (ODA) such as politics, location and colonial history.

scholarly journals ROLE OF ICT AS A CONTINGENCY FACTOR IN FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, REMITTANCES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-388
Author(s):  
Keshmeer Kanewar Makun ◽  
T.K. Jayaraman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Financial Sector Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Complementary Role ◽  
Speed Up

This study examines the role of ICT as a factor in Indonesia’s financial sector development, remittances, and economic growth nexus using annual data from 1984-2017. We use the bounds testing procedure based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework and the neoclassical growth model. The findings of the study reveal that ICT has indeed emerged as a significant factor in the remittance-growth nexus by playing a complementary role in financial sector development. The policy implication is that ICT needs to be supported at all levels and the financial inclusion process should be carried forward as it has all the potential to speed up economic growth and development.

scholarly journals Does Human Capital Mitigate Resource Curse? Evidence in the Short- and Long-Run

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Ibrahima Coulibaly ◽  
Jebaraj Asirvatham
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Show Evidence

This paper examines the short-term and long-term relationships among natural resources, human capital, and growth in Mali in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model framework. In the presence of natural resources, we find that human capital has a positive impact on growth over time. Results show a long-term, stable and positive relationship between economic growth, natural resources, and human capital. Furthermore, the results do not show evidence of Dutch disease or the presence of any natural resource curse in Mali.

scholarly journals Re-examining the impact of financial intermediation on economic growth: evidence from Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu ◽  
Aziza Hashi Abokor ◽  
Iklim Gedik Balay
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study seeks to investigate the impact of financial intermediation on economic growth in Turkey using annual data spanning 1970–2017.Design/methodology/approachBased on the results of the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron unit root tests for stationarity, the authors employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing to cointegration to establish the long-run impact of financial intermediation alongside other control factors on economic growth. The study also examines the short-run relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth by estimating the Error Correction Model (ECM).FindingsThe authors’ findings indicate that financial intermediation significantly influences economic growth in both short and long run. However, the effect is positive only in the short run, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis. Regarding the control variables, the authors observe that while financial openness shows a positive significant impact on economic growth in the long run, gross fixed capital formation matters only in the short run. The results further infer that regardless of the time period, inflation impedes economic growth.Originality/valueIn the empirical analysis of the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth, financial intermediation is always measured using a single variable. The authors argue that such studies could produce bias and misleading results given that a single proxy does not adequately reflect financial intermediation activities. Likewise, such findings may delude policy implementation. To provide a more vivid and robust analysis, the authors employ the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to construct a composite index for financial intermediation based on three broad measures. The researchers’ are unaware of any study on the financial intermediation–economic growth nexus using a composite index of financial intermediation. Thus, this paper fills this lacuna in the literature.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document