scholarly journals A Markov Renewal Chain Model for Forecasting Earthquakes in Bangladesh Region

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
Md Mohsan Khudri ◽  
Md Asaduzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Transient Behavior ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Markov Renewal Process ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Sojourn Time Distribution ◽  
Stationary Behavior

In this paper we have proposed a Weibull Markov renewal process to model earthquakes occurred in and around Bangladesh from 1961 to 2013. The process assumes that the sequence of earthquakes is a Markov chain and the sojourn time distribution is a Weibull random variable that depends only on two successive earthquakes. We estimated the parameters of the models along with transition probabilities using maximum likelihood method. The transient behavior of earthquake occurrences was investigated in details and probability forecasts were calculated for different lengths of time interval using the fitted model. We also investigated the stationary behavior of earthquake occurrences in Bangladesh region. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 65(1): 15-20, 2017 (January)

scholarly journals The Generalized Additive Weibull-G Family of Distributions

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amal S. Hassan ◽  
Saeed E. Hemeda ◽  
Sudhansu S. Maiti ◽  
Sukanta Pramanik
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Family ◽  
The Family ◽  
Generated Family ◽  
Family Of Distributions

In this paper, we present a new family, depending on additive Weibull random variable as a generator, called the generalized additive Weibull generated-family (GAW-G) of distributions with two extra parameters. The proposed family involves several of the most famous classical distributions as well as the new generalized Weibull-G family which already accomplished by Cordeiro et al. (2015). Four special models are displayed. The expressions for the incomplete and ordinary moments, quantile, order statistics, mean deviations, Lorenz and Benferroni curves are derived. Maximum likelihood method of estimation is employed to obtain the parameter estimates of the family. The simulation study of the new models is conducted. The efficiency and importance of the new generated family is examined through real data sets.

scholarly journals Slashed Exponentiated Rayleigh Distribution

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 453-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo S. Salinas ◽  
Yuri A. Iriarte ◽  
Heleno Bolfarine
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Rayleigh Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Positive Data ◽  
New Distribution

<p>In this paper we introduce a new distribution for modeling positive data with high kurtosis. This distribution can be seen as an extension of the exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. This extension builds on the quotient of two independent random variables, one exponentiated Rayleigh in the numerator and Beta(q,1) in the denominator with q&gt;0. It is called the slashed exponentiated Rayleigh random variable. There is evidence that the distribution of this new variable can be more flexible in terms of modeling the kurtosis regarding the exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. The properties of this distribution are studied and the parameter estimates are calculated using the maximum likelihood method. An application with real data reveals good performance of this new distribution.</p>

scholarly journals On the Estimation of Parameter of Weighted Sums of Exponential Distribution

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
N. Abbasi ◽  
A. Namju ◽  
N. Safari
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Moment Method ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Weighted Sums ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The Mean

The random variable Zn,α=Y1+2αY2+⋯+nαYn, with α∈ℝ and Y1,Y2,…  being independent exponentially distributed random variables with mean one, is considered. Van Leeuwaarden and Temme (2011) attempted to determine good approximation of the distribution of Zn,α. The main problem is estimating the parameter α that has the main state in applicable research. In this paper we show that estimating the parameter α by using the relation between α and mode is available. The mean square error values are obtained for estimating α by mode, moment method, and maximum likelihood method.

scholarly journals New Regression Models Based on the Unit-Sinh-Normal Distribution: Properties, Inference, and Applications

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1231
Author(s):  
Guillermo Martínez-Flórez ◽  
Roger Tovar-Falón
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Modeling Data ◽  
Positive Support

In this paper, two new distributions were introduced to model unimodal and/or bimodal data. The first distribution, which was obtained by applying a simple transformation to a unit-Birnbaum–Saunders random variable, is useful for modeling data with positive support, while the second is appropriate for fitting data on the (0,1) interval. Extensions to regression models were also studied in this work, and statistical inference was performed from a classical perspective by using the maximum likelihood method. A small simulation study is presented to evaluate the benefits of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Finally, two applications to real data sets are reported to illustrate the developed methodology.

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

The co-responsibility of mass and environment in the formation of lenticular galaxies

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (S359) ◽  
pp. 173-174
Author(s):  
A. Cortesi ◽  
L. Coccato ◽  
M. L. Buzzo ◽  
K. Menéndez-Delmestre ◽  
T. Goncalves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Galactic Nuclei ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Spiral Galaxies ◽  
Galactic Nuclei ◽  
Rotation Velocity ◽  
Elliptical Galaxies ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Lenticular Galaxies ◽  
Galaxies Kinematics

AbstractWe present the latest data release of the Planetary Nebulae Spectrograph Survey (PNS) of ten lenticular galaxies and two spiral galaxies. With this data set we are able to recover the galaxies’ kinematics out to several effective radii. We use a maximum likelihood method to decompose the disk and spheroid kinematics and we compare it with the kinematics of spiral and elliptical galaxies. We build the Tully- Fisher (TF) relation for these galaxies and we compare with data from the literature and simulations. We find that the disks of lenticular galaxies are hotter than the disks of spiral galaxies at low redshifts, but still dominated by rotation velocity. The mechanism responsible for the formation of these lenticular galaxies is neither major mergers, nor a gentle quenching driven by stripping or Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) feedback.

scholarly journals Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov and Markov Renewal Processes and Change of Measure in Credit Risk

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
P.-C.G. Vassiliou
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Measure ◽  
Renewal Process ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Markov Renewal Process ◽  
Renewal Processes ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Markov Renewal Processes ◽  
Risky Bonds ◽  
Markov Structure

For a G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain and G-inhomogeneous Markov renewal processes, we study the change from real probability measure into a forward probability measure. We find the values of risky bonds using the forward probabilities that the bond will not default up to maturity time for both processes. It is established in the form of a theorem that the forward probability measure does not alter the semi Markov structure. In addition, foundation of a G-inhohomogeneous Markov renewal process is done and a theorem is provided where it is proved that the Markov renewal process is maintained under the forward probability measure. We show that for an inhomogeneous semi-Markov there are martingales that characterize it. We show that the same is true for a Markov renewal processes. We discuss in depth the calibration of the G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain model and propose an algorithm for it. We conclude with an application for risky bonds.

scholarly journals Calibration of Transition Intensities for a Multistate Model: Application to Long-Term Care

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Manuel L. Esquível ◽  
Gracinda R. Guerreiro ◽  
Matilde C. Oliveira ◽  
Pedro Corte Real
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Chain Process ◽  
Term Care ◽  
National Network

We consider a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chain model for Long-Term Care with five states: the autonomous state, three dependent states of light, moderate and severe dependence levels and the death state. For a general approach, we allow for non null intensities for all the returns from higher dependence levels to all lesser dependencies in the multi-state model. Using data from the 2015 Portuguese National Network of Continuous Care database, as the main research contribution of this paper, we propose a method to calibrate transition intensities with the one step transition probabilities estimated from data. This allows us to use non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chains for modeling Long-Term Care. We solve numerically the Kolmogorov forward differential equations in order to obtain continuous time transition probabilities. We assess the quality of the calibration using the Portuguese life expectancies. Based on reasonable monthly costs for each dependence state we compute, by Monte Carlo simulation, trajectories of the Markov chain process and derive relevant information for model validation and premium calculation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document