scholarly journals Dynamics of notified cases of dengue in Alagoas: Geospatialization and Applied Statistics

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. e451101522990
Author(s):  
Silvania Donato da Silva ◽  
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior ◽  
Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho ◽  
Heliofábio Gomes Barros ◽  
Edson de Oliveira Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Applied Statistics ◽  
Spline Method ◽  
Pettitt Test ◽  
La Nina

The aim of the study was to evaluate the reported cases of dengue in the State of Alagoas via applied statistics and geospatialization.Dengue data were obtained from the DATASUS system between 2000 and 2015. The time series was submitted to descriptive and exploratory statistics and the Pettitt test. In the dengue case maps, the Spline method via QGis version 3.4 was used. In descriptive statistics, only 10 municipalities were evaluated based on the largest case records. All municipalities were above the average of dengue cases in 2010, the year of the biggest recent flood in the state. The boxplot pointed out that all 10 municipalities were positive asymmetric in a few months for dengue cases, the exception was Delmiro Gouveia. The Pettitt test identified biannual cycles (2006/2007 and 2009/2010) associated with the phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) in the moderate category, followed by the months of January, February, April and December, corresponding to the performance of some systems synoptics. In the mapping of annual cases of dengue, the highest records occurred in the Agreste and East Alagoas. Geospatialization and applied statistics are efficient in the spatiotemporal evaluation of dengue cases in Alagoas.

scholarly journals Simulação da Precipitação Sazonal com o Regcm4 sobre o Estado do Pará para Anos de El Niño e La Niña (Simulation of Seasonal Precipitation with Regcm4 about the State of Pará for Years of El Niño and La Niña)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1316
Author(s):  
Pâmela Lorena Ribeiro Ávila ◽  
Everaldo Barreiros de Souza ◽  
Amanda Nascimento Pinheiro
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
La Nina

Este trabalho apresenta uma contribuição aos estudos de modelagem climática com ênfase na variabilidade pluviométrica sazonal do estado do Pará, durante as estações de verão e outono (DJF e MAM). Baseado nos resultados das simulações regionais do RegCM4 para os anos de El Niño (1982/83) e Lã Niña (1988/89) usando domínio em alta resolução espacial (50 Km) e dois diferentes esquemas de convecção (Grell e MIT), foi investigado o desempenho do modelo em simular a distribuição regional de precipitação sazonal no estado do Pará. As análises quantitativas evidenciaram que o RegCM4 apresenta erros sistemáticos, sobretudo aqueles relacionados a uma subestimativa das chuvas nas três grades (G1, G2, G3) para os anos de El Niño e Lã Niña sendo representativo apenas em pequenas áreas na região sudeste do estado no período do verão para o esquema Grell, e mostrou-se mais representativo na grade G2 do para o ano de El Niño no esquema MIT. Além disso, através da técnica de composições, também foi investigado o desempenho do RegCM4 em reproduzir os padrões espaciais anômalos de precipitação sazonal em associação aos episódios ENOS, e as fases do gradiente térmico sobre o Atlântico intertropical. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo conseguiu representar realisticamente bem o padrão espacial das anomalias pluviométricas acima (abaixo) do normal em grande parte da Amazônia oriental, durante os conhecidos cenários favoráveis, i.e., condições de La Niña e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico sul (desfavoráveis, i.e., El Niño e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico norte). A B S T R A C T This paper presents a contribution to studies of climate modeling with emphasis on seasonal rainfall variability in the state of Pará, during the summer and autumn (DJF and MAM). Based on the results of simulations of regional RegCM4 for El Niño years (1982/83) and La Niña (1988/89) using the field at high spatial resolution (40 km) and two different convection schemes (Grell and MIT), was investigated the performance of the model to simulate the regional distribution of seasonal rainfall in the state of Pará. The quantitative analysis showed that the RegCM4 presents systematic errors, especially those related to an underestimation of rain in three grades (G1, G2, G3) for the years of El Niño and La Niña are representative only in small areas in the southeastern state in summer period for the Grell scheme, and was more representative of the grid G2 for the year of El Niño in the MIT scheme. Moreover, using the technique of composition, was also investigated in the performance of RegCM4 reproduce the spatial patterns of anomalous seasonal rainfall in association with ENSO episodes and phases of the thermal gradient over the Atlantic intertropical. The results showed that the model represented realistically and spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies above (below) of normal in much of the eastern Amazon, during the known favorable scenarios, ie, La Niña and gradient SSTa South Atlantic (unfavorable, ie, El Niño and gradient SSTa North Atlantic). Keywords: seasonal rainfall, El Nino, La Nina, Amazon, ENSO, RegCM4.

scholarly journals Identification of Rainfall Homogenous Regions taking into account El Niño and La Niña and Rainfall Decrease in the state of Pará, Brazilian Amazon

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariane Furtado Gonçalves ◽  
Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco ◽  
Vanessa Conceição dos Santos ◽  
Luciana Leal dos Santos Oliveira ◽  
Francisco Carlos Lira Pessoa
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

scholarly journals Homogenous regions and rainfall probability models considering El Niño and La Niña in the State of Pará in the Amazon

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 37742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariane Furtado Gonçalves ◽  
Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco ◽  
Vanessa Conceição dos Santos ◽  
Luciana Leal dos Santos Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
La Nina

scholarly journals ORBITAL AND SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMPARED TO FAO-56 STANDARD IN STATE OF ACRE

Irriga ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-559
Author(s):  
Rafael Coll Delgado ◽  
Leonardo Paula de Souza ◽  
Marcos Gervásio Pereira ◽  
Catherine Torres de Almeida ◽  
Rafael De Ávila Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Weather Stations

ORBITAL AND SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMPARED TO FAO-56 STANDARD IN STATE OF ACRE  RAFAEL COLL DELGADO1; LEONARDO PAULA DE SOUZA2; MARCOS GERVASIO PEREIRA3; CATHERINE TORRES DE ALMEIDA4 E RAFAEL DE ÁVILA RODRIGUES5 1Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Professor Doutor do Instituto de Florestas, Departamento de Ciências Ambientais, UFRRJ, CEP 23890-000, Seropédica, RJ, Brasil, [email protected]; 2Universidade Federal do Acre, Professor Doutor do Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza, UFAC, CEP 69.920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brasil,  [email protected];   3Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Professor Doutor do Departamento de Solos, UFRRJ, CEP 23890-000, Seropédica, RJ, Brasil,  [email protected];4Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Doutoranda em Sensoriamento Remoto, INPE, CEP 65250-000, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil, [email protected];5Universidade Federal de Goiás, Professor Doutor da Unidade Acadêmica Especial, Instituto de Geografia, UFG, CEP 75704-020, Catalão, GO, Brasil, [email protected].  1 ABSTRACT Evapotranspiration is a critical component of the hydrological and life cycles, with a major impact on water consumption by the population, agricultural activities, and the global climate. This study aims to compare the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) eight different empirical methods with the FAO-56 standard, using orbital and surface data for the years 2003 and 2008 in the State of Acre. For surface data methods, the Irmak-2 and Val-4 showed a higher performance and the Alexandris method showed the worst performance compared with the FAO-56 standard. The spatial distribution of ETo derived of the orbital data method were compared based on the annual mean, presenting lower ETo (2.26 mm d-1) in 2003 and higher average (3.94 mm d-1) in 2008. This interannual variability of ETo may be associated with moderate El Niño events in 2003 and strong La Niña in 2008. The statistical analysis showed satisfactory results of the evapotranspiration mean values for the years 2003 and 2008 obtained by MODIS sensor data, but it is important to have a greater representation of weather stations in the state for future studies. The results serve as a subsidy for water demand estimates of vegetation, as well for biomass productivity and changing landscape studies. Keywords: orbital platforms, water availability, weather stations.  DELGADO, R. C.; SOUZA, L. P.; PEREIRA, M. G.; ALMEIDA, C. T.; RODRIGUES, R. A. EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO ORBITAL E DE SUPERFÍCIE COMPARADOS AO PADRÃO FAO-56 NO ESTADO DO ACRE  2 RESUMO A Evapotranspiração é um componente crítico do ciclo hidrológico e da vida, com grande impacto no consumo de água pela população, em atividades agrícolas e no clima global. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo comparar a evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) a partir de diferentes métodos ao padrão FAO-56, utilizando dados orbitais e de superfície para os anos de 2003 e 2008 no Estado do Acre. Para os dados de superfície, o Irmak-2 e o Val-4 mostraram um maior desempenho e o método proposto por Alexandris o pior desempenho em comparação ao padrão FAO-56. A distribuição espacial dos valores de ETo foi comparada com base nos valores médios anuais, sendo que o período de 2003 apresentou ETo mais baixa (2.26 mm d-1) e o ano de 2008 os valores mais elevados (3.94 mm d-1). Esta variabilidade de ETo pode estar associada aos eventos de El Niño moderado em 2003 e La Niña forte em 2008. A análise estatística apresentou resultados satisfatórios dos valores médios para os anos de 2003 e 2008 de evapotranspiração obtidos pelo sensor MODIS, porém é importante que haja uma maior representativadade das EMS no estado para estudos futuros. Os resultados servem como subsídio para estimativas de demanda hídrica da vegetação, como também para estudos de produtividade de fitomassa e mudança da paisagem. Palavras-Chave: plataformas orbitais, disponibilidade de água, estações meteorológicas.

scholarly journals Identificação das causas climáticas dos eventos extremos e dos impactos dos ENOS Canônico e Modoki nas macrorregiões de Alagoas

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1880-1897
Author(s):  
Djane Fonseca Da Silva ◽  
Pedro Fernandes de Souza Neto ◽  
Silvania Donato da Silva ◽  
Maria José da Silva Lima ◽  
Iara Bezerra da Silva Cavalcante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data

Anomalies of sea surface temperature that occur in some regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being studied because their cause different impacts and originate in different ways, are the ENOS, Modoki and Canonical. The objective of this work is to identify the climatic causes of the extreme events that occurred in the macro-regions of Alagoas, and at the same time, to compare the effects of ENOS Canonical and Modoki and their classes on the macro-regions of Alagoas. The daily precipitation data for 21 municipalities in the State of Alagoas were obtained through the National Water Agency from 1963 to 2014. EN Modoki and low promoted an increase in rainfall in the Eastern region. EN Fortes, on the other hand, caused a decrease in rainfall in the Sertão. Canonical LN events caused a significant increase in rainfall in the three macro-regions, but the effect was better in LN Forte. During the phases of the Atlantic Dipole, the negative phase generated positive SPI across the state, and in the positive phase, there was a decrease in SPI in the East, and a negative SPI record in Sertão and Agreste. The climatic causes of the extreme events were the combination of semiannual, interannual scales, scale between 1-2 years of ENOS, scale of ENOS extended and scale of 11 years (Dipole and sunspots), potentiating the local total rainfall, and for cases of drought , your absence. It was found, through cluster analysis, similarity between the SPIs of La Niña low and La Niña Canonical, and between El Niño Canonical is linked to El Niño Forte. Mathematically, the categories of El Niño and La Niña strong and weak showed better correlations with ENOS Modoki and Canonical, suggesting a pattern for Alagoas.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Evolution of Drought through SPI and Its Relationship with the Agricultural Sector in the Central Zone of the State of Veracruz, Mexico

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2099
Author(s):  
Fernando Salas-Martínez ◽  
Ofelia Andrea Valdés-Rodríguez ◽  
Olivia Margarita Palacios-Wassenaar ◽  
Aldo Márquez-Grajales
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Zone ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Corn Grain

Agriculture and raising livestock are human activities highly affected by drought. In Mexico, the Veracruz territory is seriously affected by this phenomenon. Our study had two objectives: (1) to analyze the drought evolution through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the maximum temperature in the central zone of the state of Veracruz for the period 1980–2018; and (2) to describe the relationship between the yield of corn grain and cattle, and the SPI, in the study area. The methodology consisted of calculating the SPI to estimate the drought conditions in the mentioned area. Subsequently, we determined the relationship of these conditions with the maximum temperature increase and the presence of El Niño/La Niña events. The results showed that the drought has intensified during 1980–2018, having a presence in almost 50% of the area. Additionally, the maximum temperature increased by approximately 6 °C. As a result, the cultivation of corn grain under rain conditions showed reductions in 48% of the analyzed municipalities. Concerning livestock variables, lower reductions were reported (42–32%) for the same period. Therefore, we can conclude that the drought has intensified in recent years due to an increase in the maximum temperature and El Niño/La Niña events, and these factors have had a higher impact on the agricultural sector.

scholarly journals ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 6697-6728 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. G. Pavlakis ◽  
N. Hatzianastassiou ◽  
C. Matsoukas ◽  
A. Fotiadi ◽  
I. Vardavas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Downward Shortwave Radiation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Index Time Series

Abstract. We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR) at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text). A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A) time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E-160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E), where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the north subtropical Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

scholarly journals Inter-annual variation of chlorophyll in the northern South China Sea observed at the SEATS Station and its asymmetric responses to climate oscillation

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 7449-7462 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.-K. Liu ◽  
L.-W. Wang ◽  
M. Dai ◽  
C.-M. Tseng ◽  
Y. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Asymmetric Responses

Abstract. It is widely recognised that the variation of average surface chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) in the South China Sea (SCS) is closely related to wind forcing, especially during the intense winter monsoon. In this study, we demonstrate that after removal of the seasonal cycles, the variation of Chl showed strong asymmetric responses to wind speed under El Niño or La Niña conditions. The analysis was based on a time-series of Chl in the study area (115–117° E, 17–19° N) around the SEATS (South-East Asian Time-series Study) station located in the central northern SCS from September 1997 to the end of 2011, which was constructed by merging the SeaWiFS data (1997–2006) and MODIS data (2003–2011). The merged daily data were validated by shipboard observations at the SEATS station. The non-seasonal variations of monthly mean Chl, wind speed, sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) were examined against the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The analysis reveals strongly asymmetric correlations of Chl and SST with positive MEI (El Niño) or negative MEI (La Niña). Under El Niño conditions, both showed significant correlations with MEI or wind speed; under La Niña conditions, both showed weak or insignificant correlations. The contrast was more pronounced for Chl than for SST. The subdued responses of Chl to wind forcing under La Niña conditions were attributable to a deepened thermocline, for which wind driven nutrient pumping is less efficient. A deeper thermocline, which was observed during the 1999–2000 La Niña event and inferred by positive SSH anomalies during other La Niña events, was probably caused by reduced SCS throughflow under La Niña conditions. Intrusion of the nutrient-depleted Kuroshio water in the surface layer as observed during the 1999–2000 La Niña could be partially responsible for the suppressed Chl response.

scholarly journals Análise Das Séries Temporais De Precipitação Do Semiárido Paraibano Em Um Período De 100 Anos - 1911 A 2010 (Analysis Of The Time Series Of Precipitation Of The Paraiba Semi Arid In A Period Of 100 Years - 1911 To 2010)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 680
Author(s):  
Milla Nobrega de Menezes Costa ◽  
Carmem Terezinha Becker ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Semi Arid

O estado da Paraíba apresenta cerca de 76% do seu território abrangido pela região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, incluindo 170 dos 223 municípios, dentre estes, estão os municípios de Antenor Navarro atual São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Catolé do Rocha e Soledade que se sobressaem como importantes polos agrícolas e econômicos do estado, e que frequentemente são afetados pela alta variabilidade climática. Neste trabalho, foi analisado para estes 4 municípios a distribuição pluviométrica num período de cem anos (de 1911 até o ano de 2010) verificando as variações e/ou tendências nas suas séries temporais e investigando se existe uma relação entre a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP) com a pluviometria anual das 4 localidades. A partir dos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que São João do Rio do Peixe tem a maior média pluviométrica, porém a tendência de sua série temporal apresentando-se negativa, em contraposto aos outros municípios que apresentaram médias pluviométricas menores, porém com tendências positivas. A investigação da influência da ODP na precipitação anual normalizada das séries analisadas mostrou que uma parcela da ODP influência na variabilidade pluviométrica, porém depende da sua intensidade e de outros fatores tais como o dipolo do Atlântico Tropical e eventos de El Niño/La Niña, indicando que maiores investigações devem ser feitas. A B S T R A C T The state of Paraíba has about 76% of its territory covered by the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, including 170 of the 223 municipalities, among these are the municipalities of Antenor Navarro current São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Soledade and Catolé that stand out as important agricultural and economic centers of the state, which are often affected by high climatic variability. This work was analyzed for these four counties rainfall distribution over one hundred years (1911 until 2010) verifying the changes and / or trends in their series and investigating whether there is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( ODP) with annual rainfall of 4 locations. From the results obtained, it was found that St. John's River Fish has the highest average rainfall, but the tendency of his series showed up negative in opposed to other municipalities that had lower average rainfall, but with positive trends. The investigation of the influence of PDO on normalized annual rainfall series analyzed, showed that a portion of the ODP influence on rainfall variability, but depends on their strength and other factors such as the Tropical Atlantic dipole and El Niño / La Niña, indicating that further investigations should be made.

scholarly journals The impact of phenomena El Niño and La Niña and other environmental factors on episodes of acute diarrhoea disease in the population of Aguascalientes, Mexico: a case study

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Martha Esthela Venegas-Pérez ◽  
Elsa Marcela Ramírez-López ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Víctor Orlando Magaña-Rueda ◽  
Francisco Javier Avelar-González
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Acute Diarrhoea ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Acute diarrhoea diseases (ADDs) are one of the major health problems in Aguascalientes, Mexico. Due to the risk of significant increases of ADDs in the hot season, it has been necessary to determine the weather conditions that might lead to escalating ADD events. The effects of El Niño and La Niña phenomena on the morbidity rate of ADD (MRADD) in the State of Aguascalientes were determined during the period of 2000–2010. The MRADD was calculated from cases reported by the State Health Department. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was obtained from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The impact of El Niño and La Niña on the MRADD was determined using the Pearson correlation coefficient and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results gave a significant inverse correlation between El Niño phenomenon and MRADD (r = −0.55, P = 0.001), but a correlation was not observed on the La Niña phenomenon (r = −0.022, P = 0.888). Field data showed significant inverse influence of El Niño on MRADD for the years 2000–2010.

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