scholarly journals Geopolitical Inhomogeneities in the Registered Voters’ Distribution and Their Influence in the Voters’ Participation Ratio Distribution: The Mexican Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Hernández-Saldaña
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Ratio Distribution ◽  
Gaussian Shape ◽  
Participation Ratio ◽  
Political District ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Urban Versus ◽  
Skew Normal

Stylized facts appear in electoral processes worldwide, from Brazil to India. Here, we update a statistics carried on in Mexican elections but considering the inhomogeneities in electoral districts through the Nominal List (NL) (the list of valid electors in a given decision process) for the last three presidential elections. We find that the NL distribution at polling station detail is composed of, at least, three windows with a step function structure. Next, we study the consequences of the windows structure for the statistical properties of the processes. We obtain that the asymmetric vote distribution by polling station recovers a Gaussian shape for two of the windows; meanwhile, the standardized distribution of votes follows a distorted Gaussian, near to a skew normal. The distribution of the turnout at each polling station or voters’ participation ratio is close to a skew normal one in the bulk and failing at the wings. The average of voters increases in a linear way with the Nominal List and depends on the window considered. The results do not depend on the municipality, political district or urban versus nonurban distinction, and the electoral process considered.

scholarly journals Not by turnout alone: Measuring the sources of electoral change, 2012 to 2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (17) ◽  
pp. eabe3272
Author(s):  
Seth J. Hill ◽  
Daniel J. Hopkins ◽  
Gregory A. Huber
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crucial Component ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Policy Mandates ◽  
Registered Voters

Changes in partisan outcomes between consecutive elections must come from changes in the composition of the electorate or changes in the vote choices of consistent voters. How much composition versus conversion drives electoral change has critical implications for the policy mandates of election victories and campaigning and governing strategies. Here, we analyze electoral change between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using administrative data. We merge precinct-level election returns, the smallest geography at which vote counts are available, with individual-level turnout records from 37 million registered voters in six key states. We find that both factors were substantively meaningful drivers of electoral change, but the balance varied by state. We estimate that pro-Republican Party (GOP) conversion among two-election voters was particularly important in states including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where the pro-GOP swings were largest. Our results suggest conversion remains a crucial component of electoral change.

scholarly journals Clientelism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin

2003 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard Wantchekon
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Field Experiment ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Treatment Groups ◽  
The North ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
The Impact

The author conducted a field experiment in Benin to investigate the impact of clientelism on voting behavior. In collaboration with four political parties involved in the 2001 presidential elections, clientelist and broad public policy platforms were designed and run in twenty randomly selected villages of an average of 756 registered voters. Using the survey data collected after the elections, the author estimated the effect of each type of message by comparing voting behavior in the villages exposed to clientelism or public policy messages (treatment groups) with voting behavior in the other villages (control groups). The author found that clientelist messages have positive and significant effect in all regions and for all types of candidates. The author also found that public policy messages have a positive and significant effect in the South but a negative and significant effect in the North. In addition, public policy messages seem to hurt incumbents as well as regional candidates. Finally, the evidence indicates that female voters tend to have stronger preference for public policy platforms than male voters.

Quasi-Partisan Conflict in a One-Party Legislative System: The Florida Senate, 1947–1961

1962 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Partisan Conflict ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Party State

A standard approach to American politics, national, state, or local, distinguishes the two-party and one-party systems, with a range of modifications in between. Florida has long been described as a one-party state, part of the “solid south.” Since Reconstruction days, and until very recently, the Republican party there has had virtually no state and local organization, virtually no public office seekers nor office holders, virtually no registered voters, and virtually no supporters at the polls. In recent years this state of affairs has been in perceptible change. Traditionally Democratic Florida went Republican in the last three presidential elections. Indeed, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman are the only Democratic presidential nominees to have won Florida's electoral support since 1924. In the past decade there has been a marked increase in registered Republican voters, in Republican candidates and votes for them; and the state and local Republican organizations have expanded and otherwise appeared to be viable. These political changes seem to be related to other changes—industrialization, urbanization, growing wealth and a population explosion whose principal cause has been immigration from other states, mostly northern.

The Skew-Normal and Related Families

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelchi Azzalini ◽  
Antonella Capitanio
Keyword(s):  
Skew Normal

Prime Proportion Affects Masked Priming of Fixed and Free-Choice Responses

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 360-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen E. Bodner ◽  
Rehman Mulji
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Free Choice ◽  
Masked Priming ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Previous Trial ◽  
Target Response ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Sequential Trial

Left/right “fixed” responses to arrow targets are influenced by whether a masked arrow prime is congruent or incongruent with the required target response. Left/right “free-choice” responses on trials with ambiguous targets that are mixed among fixed trials are also influenced by masked arrow primes. We show that the magnitude of masked priming of both fixed and free-choice responses is greater when the proportion of fixed trials with congruent primes is .8 rather than .2. Unconscious manipulation of context can thus influence both fixed and free choices. Sequential trial analyses revealed that these effects of the overall prime context on fixed and free-choice priming can be modulated by the local context (i.e., the nature of the previous trial). Our results support accounts of masked priming that posit a memory-recruitment, activation, or decision process that is sensitive to aspects of both the local and global context.

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