scholarly journals Not by turnout alone: Measuring the sources of electoral change, 2012 to 2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (17) ◽  
pp. eabe3272
Author(s):  
Seth J. Hill ◽  
Daniel J. Hopkins ◽  
Gregory A. Huber
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crucial Component ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Policy Mandates ◽  
Registered Voters

Changes in partisan outcomes between consecutive elections must come from changes in the composition of the electorate or changes in the vote choices of consistent voters. How much composition versus conversion drives electoral change has critical implications for the policy mandates of election victories and campaigning and governing strategies. Here, we analyze electoral change between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using administrative data. We merge precinct-level election returns, the smallest geography at which vote counts are available, with individual-level turnout records from 37 million registered voters in six key states. We find that both factors were substantively meaningful drivers of electoral change, but the balance varied by state. We estimate that pro-Republican Party (GOP) conversion among two-election voters was particularly important in states including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where the pro-GOP swings were largest. Our results suggest conversion remains a crucial component of electoral change.

Quasi-Partisan Conflict in a One-Party Legislative System: The Florida Senate, 1947–1961

1962 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Partisan Conflict ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Party State

A standard approach to American politics, national, state, or local, distinguishes the two-party and one-party systems, with a range of modifications in between. Florida has long been described as a one-party state, part of the “solid south.” Since Reconstruction days, and until very recently, the Republican party there has had virtually no state and local organization, virtually no public office seekers nor office holders, virtually no registered voters, and virtually no supporters at the polls. In recent years this state of affairs has been in perceptible change. Traditionally Democratic Florida went Republican in the last three presidential elections. Indeed, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman are the only Democratic presidential nominees to have won Florida's electoral support since 1924. In the past decade there has been a marked increase in registered Republican voters, in Republican candidates and votes for them; and the state and local Republican organizations have expanded and otherwise appeared to be viable. These political changes seem to be related to other changes—industrialization, urbanization, growing wealth and a population explosion whose principal cause has been immigration from other states, mostly northern.

AMBIGUITIES OF FORGIVENESS IN LEFT TO TELL: DISCOVERING GOD AMIDST THE RWANDAN HOLOCAUST (2006)

Imbizo ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Shingirirai Gabi
Keyword(s):  
Restorative Justice ◽  
Healing Process ◽  
Positive Thinking ◽  
Rwandan Genocide ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crucial Component ◽  
National Reconciliation

To interrogate the ambiguities of forgiveness it is important to understand the historicity of the Rwandan genocide and the complexities of the interchanging roles of victim/perpetrator and ‘the enemy other’. Ilibagiza is credited for including the historicity of the ethnic animosity in her memoir, as she acknowledges that the 1994 genocide did not just suddenly erupt, but the work will be critiqued for its persistent portrayal of the Tutsi as victims and the Hutu as perpetrators, and for not acknowledging that the Tutsi were a ‘historically privileged’ (Mamdani 2001) group before the 1959 revolution. This article interrogates Ilibagiza’s comprehension of forgiveness and its importance during the genocide and in post-genocide Rwanda. Left to tell centres on the power of religion, positive thinking and compassion as major steps towards forgiveness on an individual level, but shows limitations concerning justice after the commission of ‘crimes of state’, as Orentlicher (1991, 44) notes. Forgiveness is necessary in the healing process, but justice is a crucial component of national reconciliation. Forgiveness is only the first step towards restoring the humanity of the victim/ perpetrator, and should be followed by restorative justice.

Accessible Elections and Voter Turnout

2020 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Michael Ritter
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Voting Laws

Chapter 4 evaluates the impact of convenience voting laws (in-person early voting, no-excuse absentee/mail voting, and same day registration) and election administration on individual-level voter turnout change from the 2010 to 2014 midterm elections and the 2008 to 2012 presidential elections using lagged panel models. Results show that non-voters are more likely to become voters when living in states with absentee/mail voting, in-person early voting, same day registration, and high-quality election administration, controlling for other factors. Same day registration is the most important of the three in both midterm and presidential elections, while early voting and absentee/mail voting have the largest effects in midterm elections.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

scholarly journals Unconsented linkage between dormant trials and administrative data: practical and regulatory implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximiliane Verfuerden ◽  
Mary Fewtrell ◽  
Kathy Kennedy ◽  
Alan Lucas ◽  
John Jerrim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Trial Data ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Match Trial ◽  
Hospital Records ◽  
Institutional Approval ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Formula Composition ◽  
Education Records

IntroductionHalf of all infants are fed formula milk. However, attrition biases evidence on the long-term safety of formula ingredients. We used unconsented linkage between administrative education and health records of young people who were randomised as infants to formula milks, to determine long-term safety and efficacy. Objectives and ApproachWe used record level data from a series of 9 historical randomised controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in 1982-2002 (n=3,500 participants), which are key to the evidence-base around formula-composition. All later follow-ups are biased by attrition leading to limited evidence around the long-term effects of formula ingredients on cognition and metabolic and cardiovascular health. We sought permissions from data providers and regulatory agencies for unconsented linkage to education and hospital records, as proxy measures for cognitive and health development. We discuss the steps that were implemented to safeguard the participants' privacy and achieve ethical and multi-institutional approval for this project. ResultsAchieving provisional ethical approval took 41 days. Achieving agreement in principle to match trial data to individual level education records took 4 months and 2 weeks, while agreement to match trial data to individual level hospital records is still underway (5.5 months in February 2018). Delays in institutional approval were largely due to unharmonised data security certificates between the two government departments holding the health and education records. Digitising and cleaning all handwritten RCT participant identifiers prior to linkage took 9 months of full-time researcher time. Maintaining separation of identifiers and attribute data required specific secure haven provision. Results on the success of linkage between RCTs and education records will be presented at the conference. Conclusion/ImplicationsWhile directly contributing to the evidence around infant-formula-composition, this project will also act as a proof-of-concept study. Unconsented linkage between dormant RCTs and administrative data could be a novel and cost-effective method to generate evidence on the long-term efficacy and safety of interventions.

Use and Perceptions of the Availability of Local Government and Nonprofit Services in Diverse Urban Settings

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 975-997
Author(s):  
Khaldoun AbouAssi ◽  
Lewis Faulk ◽  
Long Tran ◽  
Lilli Shaffer ◽  
Minjung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Nonprofit Theory ◽  
Perceived Access ◽  
The Relationship

This analysis tests fundamental nonprofit theory using individual-level demand-side data, which complements existing studies that have relied on organizational- and community-level variables alone. We use survey and administrative data to test the relationship between individuals’ perceptions and use of local government services and their reported use of nonprofit services, controlling for the density of organizations around respondents’ addresses. Individuals who report being better served by government services are significantly more likely to report using nonprofit services—while individuals who report being unserved by government are also less likely to report access to nonprofits, despite the actual density of organizations around them. These findings support theories of interdependence between government and nonprofit sectors. However, income-based disparities in perceived access to nonprofit services highlight persistent gaps in serving all individuals on the local level.

Using cross-sectoral data linkage to understand the health of people experiencing multiple exclusion

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Tweed ◽  
A Leyland ◽  
D Morrison ◽  
S V Katikireddi
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Data Linkage ◽  
Support Service ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Opioid Substitution Therapy ◽  
Case Register ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Future Policy

Abstract Background People affected by the intersection of homelessness, drug use, and/or serious mental illness have high rates of mortality and morbidity. However, they are often missed from routine information sources on population health, such as surveys and censuses. In many countries, administrative data are available which could help address this knowledge gap. We created a novel virtual cohort using cross-sectoral data linkage in order to inform policy and practice responses to these co-occurring issues. Methods Individual-level data from local authority homelessness services (HL), opioid substitution therapy dispensing (OST), and a psychosis case register (PSY) in Glasgow, Scotland between 2011-15 were confidentially linked to National Health Service records, using a mix of probabilistic and deterministic linkage. A de-identified dataset was made available to researchers through a secure analysis platform. Demographic characteristics associated with different exposure combinations were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results Linkage created a cohort of 24,767 unique individuals with any one of the experiences of interest between 2011-15. Preliminary results suggest that 89.2% of the cohort had one experience; 10.6% two; and 0.2% all three. The most common combination was HL & OST (n = 2,150; 8.7%), with other combinations much less frequent (HL & PSY, n = 279, 1.1%; OST & PSY, n = 188, 0.8%; HL & OST & PSY, n = 51, 0.2%). The odds of male gender increased with number of exposures (2 exposures, OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.9-2.2; 3 exposures, OR 4.1, 95% CI 2.3-7.2), but there was little difference in age. Work is ongoing to incorporate into the cohort additional datasets on criminal justice involvement. Lessons Administrative data linkage is a feasible approach to understanding the health of people affected by multiple exclusionary processes, but requires robust and timely governance. Our initiative can support service planning and evaluation of future policy or service changes. Key messages We describe the creation and characteristics of a novel virtual cohort of people affected by multiple exclusionary processes, using record linkage of administrative datasets. Cross-sectoral linkage has international potential for enhancing public health intelligence, especially for population groups who may be missed from surveys and censuses.

scholarly journals Family Visitation Patterns during Incarceration in Denmark

2021 ◽  
pp. 0192513X2199118
Author(s):  
Anne Sofie Tegner Anker ◽  
Christopher Wildeman
Keyword(s):  
Latent Class Analysis ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Average Frequency ◽  
First Year ◽  
Psychological Benefits ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Qualitative Evidence ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity

While qualitative evidence has highlighted psychological benefits of visitation during incarceration, and quantitative evidence has linked visitation to better post-release outcomes for inmates, we know little about heterogeneity in visitation patterns and the factors shaping them. Using Danish administrative data on inmates incarcerated at least a year between 2004 and 2014 ( N = 5,441), we first examine average frequency and duration of family visits across the first year of incarceration and then describe five distinct visitation patterns using latent class analysis. Finally, we investigate what predicts visitation patterns. The findings highlight that (a) there is substantial heterogeneity in the patterns of family visitation and (b) both individual-level and institution-level factors partially predict this heterogeneity. Parenthood, high pre-incarceration income, and long sentences were associated with high levels of visitation and being placed far from home and transferred between facilities were associated with a higher risk of receiving low or decreasing levels of visitation.

Continuing the Struggle

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Wuthnow
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Church Leaders ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Right To Life ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Phase

This chapter examines how conservative church leaders in Kansas continued the struggle against abortion and expanded their activities to include opposition to same-sex marriage. In the early 1990s, the Religious Right threw everything it had into making the right to life an issue that would arouse thousands of activists. By the decade's end, the Religious Right was moving into a new phase. The chapter first considers the institutionalization of the Religious Right before discussing its use of activist networks and its influence within the Republican Party. It then discusses George W. Bush's victory in the 2000 presidential elections and its significance for the Religious Right. It also explores the issue of regulation of abortion and the churches' campaign against same-sex marriage, the ongoing back-and-forth debate about evolution, the death of George Tiller, and Bill Clinton's 2004 Dole Lecture for the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at Kansas University.

Clashes Involving National Popular Vote, Hare (“RCV”), Maine, Alaska

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Richard F. Potthoff
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Plurality Vote ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Election System ◽  
Voting System ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Election Results

ABSTRACT Apparently unnoticed by its advocates, a prominent effort to improve the troubled US presidential-election system—the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)—is on a collision course with another effort at electoral change—“ranked-choice voting” (RCV, known previously by less ambiguous names). The NPVIC is a clever device intended, without constitutional amendment, to elect as president the nationwide popular-vote winner (i.e., the plurality-vote winner) rather than the electoral-vote winner. Election results in 2000, 2016, and 2020 enhanced its support. However, the (constitutional) ability of even one state to replace its plurality voting with another voting system causes the popular-vote total posited for the NPVIC to be undefined, thereby rendering the NPVIC unusable. Maine and Alaska recently switched from plurality voting to RCV for presidential elections. Consequently, tangled results and turmoil could occur with the NPVIC. To improve presidential elections, replacing plurality voting with other systems appears to be more sensible than pursuing the NPVIC.

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