scholarly journals Machine-Learning vs. Expert-Opinion Driven Logistic Regression Modelling for Predicting 30-Day Unplanned Rehospitalisation in Preterm Babies: A Prospective, Population-Based Study (EPIPAGE 2)

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Reed ◽  
Andrei S. Morgan ◽  
Jennifer Zeitlin ◽  
Pierre-Henri Jarreau ◽  
Héloïse Torchin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Expert Opinion ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Regression Modelling ◽  
Preterm Babies ◽  
Logistic Regression Modelling

Introduction: Preterm babies are a vulnerable population that experience significant short and long-term morbidity. Rehospitalisations constitute an important, potentially modifiable adverse event in this population. Improving the ability of clinicians to identify those patients at the greatest risk of rehospitalisation has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce costs. Machine-learning algorithms can provide potentially advantageous methods of prediction compared to conventional approaches like logistic regression.Objective: To compare two machine-learning methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest) to expert-opinion driven logistic regression modelling for predicting unplanned rehospitalisation within 30 days in a large French cohort of preterm babies.Design, Setting and Participants: This study used data derived exclusively from the population-based prospective cohort study of French preterm babies, EPIPAGE 2. Only those babies discharged home alive and whose parents completed the 1-year survey were eligible for inclusion in our study. All predictive models used a binary outcome, denoting a baby's status for an unplanned rehospitalisation within 30 days of discharge. Predictors included those quantifying clinical, treatment, maternal and socio-demographic factors. The predictive abilities of models constructed using LASSO and random forest algorithms were compared with a traditional logistic regression model. The logistic regression model comprised 10 predictors, selected by expert clinicians, while the LASSO and random forest included 75 predictors. Performance measures were derived using 10-fold cross-validation. Performance was quantified using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Tjur's coefficient of determination and calibration measures.Results: The rate of 30-day unplanned rehospitalisation in the eligible population used to construct the models was 9.1% (95% CI 8.2–10.1) (350/3,841). The random forest model demonstrated both an improved AUROC (0.65; 95% CI 0.59–0.7; p = 0.03) and specificity vs. logistic regression (AUROC 0.57; 95% CI 0.51–0.62, p = 0.04). The LASSO performed similarly (AUROC 0.59; 95% CI 0.53–0.65; p = 0.68) to logistic regression.Conclusions: Compared to an expert-specified logistic regression model, random forest offered improved prediction of 30-day unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies. However, all models offered relatively low levels of predictive ability, regardless of modelling method.

scholarly journals Effect of fluid administration on scene to traffic accident patients by EMS personnel: a propensity score-matched study using population-based ambulance records and nationwide trauma registry in Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuke Katayama ◽  
Tetsuhisa Kitamura ◽  
Kosuke Kiyohara ◽  
Kenichiro Ishida ◽  
Tomoya Hirose ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Arrest ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fluid Administration ◽  
Secondary Outcome

Abstract Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the effect of fluid administration by emergency life-saving technicians (ELST) on the prognosis of traffic accident patients by using a propensity score (PS)-matching method. Methods The study included traffic accident patients registered in the JTDB database from January 2016 to December 2017. The main outcome was hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was cardiopulmonary arrest on hospital arrival (CPAOA). To reduce potential confounding effects in the comparisons between two groups, we estimated a propensity score (PS) by fitting a logistic regression model that was adjusted for 17 variables before the implementation of fluid administration by ELST at the scene. Results During the study period, 10,908 traffic accident patients were registered in the JTDB database, and we included 3502 patients in this study. Of these patients, 142 were administered fluid by ELST and 3360 were not administered fluid by ELST. After PS matching, 141 patients were selected from each group. In the PS-matched model, fluid administration by ELST at the scene was not associated with discharge to death (crude OR: 0.859 [95% CI, 0.500–1.475]; p = 0.582). However, the fluid group showed statistically better outcome for CPAOA than the no fluid group in the multiple logistic regression model (adjusted OR: 0.231 [95% CI, 0.055–0.967]; p = 0.045). Conclusion In this study, fluid administration to traffic accident patients by ELST was associated not with hospital mortality but with a lower proportion of CPAOA.

Relevance of Brain Regions’ Eloquence Assessment in Patients With a Large Ischemic Core Treated With Mechanical Thrombectomy

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012863
Author(s):  
Basile Kerleroux ◽  
Joseph Benzakoun ◽  
Kévin Janot ◽  
Cyril Dargazanli ◽  
Dimitri Daly Eraya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Mechanical Thrombectomy ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Ischemic Core ◽  
Functional Relevance

ObjectiveIndividualized patient selection for mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and large ischemic core (LIC) at baseline is an unmet need.We tested the hypothesis, that assessing the functional relevance of both the infarcted and hypo-perfused brain tissue, would improve the selection framework of patients with LIC for MT.MethodsMulticenter, retrospective, study of adult with LIC (ischemic core volume > 70ml on MR-DWI), with MRI perfusion, treated with MT or best medical management (BMM).Primary outcome was 3-month modified-Rankin-Scale (mRS), favourable if 0-3. Global and regional-eloquence-based core-perfusion mismatch ratios were derived. The predictive accuracy for clinical outcome of eloquent regions involvement was compared in multivariable and bootstrap-random-forest models.ResultsA total of 138 patients with baseline LIC were included (MT n=96 or BMM n=42; mean age±SD, 72.4±14.4years; 34.1% females; mRS=0-3: 45.1%). Mean core and critically-hypo-perfused volume were 100.4ml±36.3ml and 157.6±56.2ml respectively and did not differ between groups. Models considering the functional relevance of the infarct location showed a better accuracy for the prediction of mRS=0-3 with a c-Statistic of 0.76 and 0.83 for logistic regression model and bootstrap-random-forest testing sets respectively. In these models, the interaction between treatment effect of MT and the mismatch was significant (p=0.04). In comparison in the logistic regression model disregarding functional eloquence the c-Statistic was 0.67 and the interaction between MT and the mismatch was insignificant.ConclusionConsidering functional eloquence of hypo-perfused tissue in patients with a large infarct core at baseline allows for a more precise estimation of treatment expected benefit.

scholarly journals Association between Maternal Pre-pregnancy Body Mass Index and Breastfeeding Duration in Taiwan: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2361
Author(s):  
Chi-Nien Chen ◽  
Hung-Chen Yu ◽  
An-Kuo Chou
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Maternal Obesity ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Breastfeeding Duration ◽  
Breastfeeding Cessation

An association between high pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and early breastfeeding cessation has been previously observed, but studies examining the effect of underweight are still scant and remain inconclusive. This study analyzed data from a nationally representative cohort of 18,312 women (mean age 28.3 years; underweight 20.1%; overweight 8.2%; obesity 1.9%) who delivered singleton live births in 2005 in Taiwan. Comprehensive face-to-face interviews and surveys were completed at 6 and 18 months postpartum. BMI status and breastfeeding duration were calculated from the self-reported data in the questionnaires. In the adjusted ordinal logistic regression model, maternal obesity and underweight had a higher odds of shorter breastfeeding duration compared with normal-weight women. The risk of breastfeeding cessation was significantly higher in underweight women than in normal-weight women after adjustments in the logistic regression model (2 m: aOR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03–1.2; 4 m: aOR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.21–1.43; 6 m: aOR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.18–1.42). Our findings indicated that maternal underweight and obesity are associated with earlier breastfeeding cessation in Taiwan. Optimizing maternal BMI during the pre-conception period is essential, and future interventions to promote and support breastfeeding in underweight mothers are necessary to improve maternal and child health.

scholarly journals Prediction of perinatal death using machine learning models: a birth registry-based cohort study in northern Tanzania

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e040132
Author(s):  
Innocent B Mboya ◽  
Michael J Mahande ◽  
Mohanad Mohammed ◽  
Joseph Obure ◽  
Henry G Mwambi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Perinatal Death ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Birth Registry ◽  
Perinatal Deaths ◽  
Machine Learning Models

ObjectiveWe aimed to determine the key predictors of perinatal deaths using machine learning models compared with the logistic regression model.DesignA secondary data analysis using the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) Medical Birth Registry cohort from 2000 to 2015. We assessed the discriminative ability of models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and the net benefit using decision curve analysis.SettingThe KCMC is a zonal referral hospital located in Moshi Municipality, Kilimanjaro region, Northern Tanzania. The Medical Birth Registry is within the hospital grounds at the Reproductive and Child Health Centre.ParticipantsSingleton deliveries (n=42 319) with complete records from 2000 to 2015.Primary outcome measuresPerinatal death (composite of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths). These outcomes were only captured before mothers were discharged from the hospital.ResultsThe proportion of perinatal deaths was 3.7%. There were no statistically significant differences in the predictive performance of four machine learning models except for bagging, which had a significantly lower performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.79, p=0.006) compared with the logistic regression model (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.81). However, in the decision curve analysis, the machine learning models had a higher net benefit (ie, the correct classification of perinatal deaths considering a trade-off between false-negatives and false-positives)—over the logistic regression model across a range of threshold probability values.ConclusionsIn this cohort, there was no significant difference in the prediction of perinatal deaths between machine learning and logistic regression models, except for bagging. The machine learning models had a higher net benefit, as its predictive ability of perinatal death was considerably superior over the logistic regression model. The machine learning models, as demonstrated by our study, can be used to improve the prediction of perinatal deaths and triage for women at risk.

Glaucoma may be a non-memory manifestation of Alzheimer's disease in older people

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 1535-1541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shih-Wei Lai ◽  
Cheng-Li Lin ◽  
Kuan-Fu Liao
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Older People ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Taiwan National Health Insurance

ABSTRACTBackground:The purpose of this paper was to examine whether glaucoma could be a non-memory manifestation of Alzheimer's disease in older people.Methods:We conducted a population-based, retrospective, case-control study to analyze the database of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program. There were 1,351 subjects ≥65 years old with newly diagnosed Alzheimer's disease as the cases, and 5,329 subjects without any type of dementias as the controls during 2000–2011. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with glaucoma was estimated by the multivariable unconditional logistic regression model.Results:After controlling for confounders, the multivariable logistic regression model demonstrated that the adjusted OR of Alzheimer's disease was 1.50 in subjects with glaucoma (95% CI 1.19, 1.89), compared to subjects without glaucoma.Conclusions:Older people with glaucoma are associated with 1.5-fold increased odds of Alzheimer's disease in Taiwan. Glaucoma may be a non-memory manifestation of Alzheimer's disease in older people. Further research is needed to confirm this issue.

P5710Clinical applications of machine learning for prediction of incident atrial fibrillation from the general population: a nationwide cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-S Kim ◽  
P S Yang ◽  
H T Yu ◽  
T H Kim ◽  
J S Uhm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
General Population ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
National Health ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Learning System ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Clinical Variables

Abstract Background To evaluate the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF) from the general population using health examination items. Methods We included 483,343 subjects who received national health examinations from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-based National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC). We trained deep neural network model (DNN) of a deep learning system and decision tree model (DT) of a machine learning system using clinical variables and health examination items (including age, sex, body mass index, history of heart failure, hypertension or diabetes, baseline creatinine, and smoking and alcohol intake habits) to predict incident AF using a training dataset of 341,771 subjects constructed from the NHIS-NSC database. The DNN and DT were validated using an independent test dataset of 141,572 remaining subjects. C-indices of DNN and DT for prediction of incident AF were compared with that of conventional logistic regression model. Results During 1,874,789 person·years (mean±standard-deviation age 47.7±14.4 years, 49.6% male), 3,282 subjects with incident AF were observed. In the validation dataset, 1,139 subjects with incident AF were observed. The c-indices of the DNN and DT for incident AF prediction were 0.828 [0.819–0.836] and 0.835 [0.825–0.844], and were significantly higher (p<0.01) than conventional logistic regression model (c-index=0.789 [0.784–0.794]). Conclusions Application of machine learning using simple clinical variables and health examination items was helpful to predict incident AF in the general population. Prospective study is warranted to construct an individualized precision medicine.

scholarly journals COVID-19 associated hospitalization in 571 patients with fibromyalgia—A population-based study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261772
Author(s):  
Mor Amital ◽  
Niv Ben-Shabat ◽  
Howard Amital ◽  
Dan Buskila ◽  
Arnon D. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Female Dominance ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Population Based Study

Objective To identify predicators of patients with fibromyalgia (FM) that are associated with a severe COVID-19 disease course. Methods We utilized the data base of the Clalit Health Services (CHS); the largest public organization in Israel, and extracted data concerning patients with FM. We matched two subjects without FM to each subject with FM by sex and age and geographic location. Baseline characteristics were evaluated by t-test for continuous variables and chi-square for categorical variables. Predictors of COVID-19 associated hospitalization were identified using univariable logistic regression model, significant variables were selected and analyzed by a multivariable logistic regression model. Results The initial cohort comprised 18,598 patients with FM and 36,985 matched controls. The mean age was 57.5± 14.5(SD), with a female dominance of 91%. Out of this cohort we extracted the study population, which included all patients contracted with COVID-19, and consisted of 571 patients with FM and 1008 controls. By multivariable analysis, the following variables were found to predict COVID-19 associated hospitalization in patients with FM: older age (OR, 1.25; CI, 1.13–1.39; p<0.001), male sex (OR, 2.63; CI, 1.18–5.88; p<0.05) and hypertension (OR, 1.75; CI, 1.04–2.95; p<0.05). Conclusion The current population-based study revealed that FM per se was not directly associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or related mortality. Yet classical risk factors endangering the general population were also relevant among patients with FM.

scholarly journals Early Prediction of the Carbapenem Resistance Gram-negative Bacteria Carriage in Intensive Care Unit using Machine-Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiqiang Liang ◽  
Qinyu Zhao ◽  
Xin Xu ◽  
Yu Zhou ◽  
Man Huang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Carbapenem Resistance ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Gram Negative Bacteria ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Gram Negative ◽  
Better Than

Abstract Background The prevention and control of carbapenem-resistance gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) is the difficulty and focus for clinicians in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study construct a CR-GNB carriage prediction model in order to predict the CR-GNB incidence in one week. Methods The database is comprised of nearly 10,000 patients. the model is constructed by the multivariate logistic regression model and three machine learning algorithms. Then we choose the optimal model and verify the accuracy by daily predicted and recorded the occurrence of CR-GNB of all patients admitted for 4 months. Results There are 1385 patients with positive CR-GNB cultures and 1535 negative patients in this study. Forty-five variables have statistical significant differences. We include the 17 variables in the multivariate logistic regression model and build three machine learning models for all variables. In terms of accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the random forest is better than XGBoost and multivariate logistic regression model, and better than decision tree model (accuracy: 84% >82%>81%>72%), (AUROC: 0.9089 > 0.8947 ≈ 0.8987 > 0.7845). In the 4-month prospective study, 81 cases were predicted to be positive in CR-GNB culture within 7 days, 146 cases were predicted to be negative, 86 cases were positive, and 120 cases were negative, with an overall accuracy of 84% and AUROC of 91.98%. Conclusions Prediction models by machine learning can predict the occurrence of CR-GNB colonization or infection within a week period, and can real-time predict and guide medical staff to identify high-risk groups more accurately.

scholarly journals Root for a Phishing Page using Machine Learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1692-1695
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model

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