scholarly journals Modeling the Consequences of Social Distancing Over Epidemics Spreading in Complex Social Networks: From Link Removal Analysis to SARS-CoV-2 Prevention

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bellingeri ◽  
M. Turchetto ◽  
D. Bevacqua ◽  
F. Scotognella ◽  
R. Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Connected Component ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
The Social ◽  
Network Topologies ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

In this perspective, we describe how the link removal (LR) analysis in social complex networks may be a promising tool to model non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and social distancing to prevent epidemics spreading. First, we show how the extent of the epidemic spreading and NPIs effectiveness over complex social networks may be evaluated with a static indicator, that is, the classic largest connected component (LCC). Then we explain how coupling the LR analysis and type SIR epidemiological models (EM) provide further information by including the temporal dynamics of the epidemic spreading. This is a promising approach to investigate important aspects of the recent NPIs applied by government to contain SARS-CoV-2, such as modeling the effect of the social distancing severity and timing over different network topologies. Further, implementing different link removal strategies to halt epidemics spreading provides information to individuate more effective NPIs, representing an important tool to offer a rationale sustaining policies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 and similar epidemics.

scholarly journals The Role of Social Networks During the COVID-19 Lockdown: Real-Life Social Distancing Vs Virtual Interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Donata Tania Vergura ◽  
Beatrice Luceri ◽  
Cristina Zerbini
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Emotional Instability ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World

Online social networks have become one of the most widely used sources of information in the world and also an important part of our daily life. A huge boost to their spreading came with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As social distancing and lockdown orders due to COVID-19 health emergency grew more pervasive, individuals began to spend more time online and to use social networks (SNs) to keep up to date regarding the spread of pandemic and also to maintain communication with friends and family and reduce isolation. Given these evidences, the present study aims to investigate the social supporting role of SNs during the pandemic emergency. Specifically, it intends to analyze (a) the use of SNs as a means of interaction in the face of the social containment imposed by the COVID-19 spreading, and (b) the factors (homophily, trust, loneliness, and emotional instability) that affect such use. An online survey with a sample of 194 Italian people was conducted. Structural equation modelling was used to estimate the model proposed. Results revealed that sense of belonging to SNs had a strong impact on search for social support and is, in turn, positively influenced by trust in SNs and homophily. Emotional instability also increased the search for social support. The study contributes both theoretically and empirically to the understanding of the role of SNs in influencing individual behavior. As the use of SNs continues to spread around the world, understanding why consumers rely in SNs and what gratifications they receive from them is undoubtedly of interest for both academics and practitioners.

scholarly journals Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yael Gurevich ◽  
Yoav Ram ◽  
Lilach Hadany
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Viral Strain ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Testing Rate ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Evolutionary Trajectories ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractSocial and behavioral non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and travel restrictions, as well as diagnostic tests, have been broadly implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological models and data analysis affirm that wide adoption of NPIs helps to control the pandemic. However, SARS-CoV-2 has extensively demonstrated its ability to evolve. Therefore, it is crucial to examine how NPIs may affect the evolution of the virus. Such evolution could have important effects on the spread and impact of the pandemic.We used evo-epidemiological models to examine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2: attenuation and test evasion. Our results show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce virulence. Additionally, the timely application of NPIs could significantly affect the competition between viral strains, favoring reduced virulence. Furthermore, a higher testing rate can select for a test-evasive viral strain, even if that strain is less infectious than the detectable competing strain. Importantly, if a less detectable strain evolves, epidemiological metrics such as confirmed daily cases may distort our assessment of the pandemic. Our results highlight the important implications NPIs can have on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Mitigation of COVID-19 using social distancing of the elderly in Brazil: The vertical quarantine effects in hospitalizations and deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Ribeiro Venturieri ◽  
Matheus Silva Gonçalves ◽  
Vinícius Rios Fuck
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Population ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Intervention Scenario ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

SummaryGovernments and epidemiologists have been proposing several mitigation strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. In this work, we quantitatively compare the effects of elderly population (60 years old or more) selective isolation with a no isolation scenario using an adapted Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Removed (SEIR) compartmental model. For these simulated scenarios, we estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths for different Brazilian cities, including those due to the lack of hospital beds. Our simulations show that, for São Paulo City, the isolation of the elderly would reduce demand for hospital beds by 9% and deaths by 16% compared to the no intervention scenario. Other Brazilian cities follow the same pattern, with median reductions of deaths ranging from 12-18%. We conclude that the social distancing of the elderly would be marginally effective and would not avoid health system collapse in several Brazilian cities.

scholarly journals Forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number using bulk contact data from mobile phones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Jonathan Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
Alexander Thieme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries and could often be controlled with non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing. We analyzed de-identified GPS tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March-November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate large-scale contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory we estimated the contact index (CI), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts and found that the contact index, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predsictor for the effective reproduction number R. A high correlation between CI and R occurring more than two weeks later allows timely assessment of the social behavior well before the infections become detectable. The CI quantifies the role of superspreading and allows assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CI-value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use it to leverage the social distancing interventions for the coming months.

scholarly journals DISTANCIAMENTO SOCIAL E REPERCUSSÕES OCUPACIONAIS DA PANDEMIA PARA CUIDADORAS DE CRIANÇAS E ADOLESCENTES

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-313
Author(s):  
Marina Batella Martins ◽  
Bruna Lídia Taño ◽  
Marina Vilaça Cavallari Machado
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Multidisciplinary Team ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Occupational Profile ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to identify the impact of social distancing caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the occupational profile of children and adolescents caregivers accompained by a multidisciplinary team. 34 caregivers participated by fulfilling a questionnaire composed of 31 questions. Quantitative data were analyzed descriptively and the content analysis was performed by open grid questions. The results of this study point to the intensification of the caregiver's role, absence of participation in leisure activities and the importance of involvement in significant activities that support and sustain health. Participants indicated strategies that were effective in coping with the impacts caused by the pandemic, such as leisure and prevetion activities. Further, it was observed that theses strategies were developed by the participants themselves, on the social networks or internet.

scholarly journals Using multilayer network analysis to explore the temporal dynamics of collective behavior

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David N Fisher ◽  
Noa Pinter-Wollman
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Collective Behavior ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Multilayer Network ◽  
Collective Behaviors ◽  
The Social ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Social organisms often show collective behaviors such as group foraging or movement. Collective behaviors can emerge from interactions between group members and may depend on the behavior of key individuals. When social interactions change over time, collective behaviors may change because these behaviors emerge from interactions among individuals. Despite the importance of, and growing interest in, the temporal dynamics of social interactions, it is not clear how to quantify changes in interactions over time or measure their stability. Furthermore, the temporal scale at which we should observe changes in social networks to detect biologically meaningful changes is not always apparent. Here we use multilayer network analysis to quantify temporal dynamics of social networks of the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola and determine how these dynamics relate to individual and group behaviors. We found that social interactions changed over time at a constant rate. Variation in both network structure and the identity of a keystone individual was not related to the mean or variance of the collective prey attack speed. Individuals that maintained a large and stable number of connections, despite changes in network structure, were the boldest individuals in the group. Therefore, social interactions and boldness are linked across time, but group collective behavior is not influenced by the stability of the social network. Our work demonstrates that dynamic social networks can be modeled in a multilayer framework. This approach may reveal biologically important temporal changes to social structure in other systems.

The value, costs, and meaning of transnational migration in rural Oaxaca, Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey H. Cohen ◽  
Bernardo Rios ◽  
Lise Byars
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Sense Of Belonging ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Transnational Migration ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Shared Identity ◽  
The Social

Rural Oaxacan migrants are defined as quintessential transnational movers, people who access rich social networks as they move between rural hometowns in southern Mexico and the urban centers of southern California.  The social and cultural ties that characterize Oaxacan movers are critical to successful migrations, lead to jobs and create a sense of belonging and shared identity.  Nevertheless, migration has socio-cultural, economic and psychological costs.  To move the discussion away from a framework that emphasizes the positive transnational qualities of movement we focus on the costs of migration for Oaxacans from the state’s central valleys and Sierra regions.   

Emotive Trending And Tracking of Tweets

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Sanjay Chhataru Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Social Network ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Complex Events

Popularity of the social media and the amount of importance given by an individual to social media has significantly increased in last few years. As more and more people become part of the social networks like Twitter, Facebook, information which flows through the social network, can potentially give us good understanding about what is happening around in our locality, state, nation or even in the world. The conceptual motive behind the project is to develop a system which analyses about a topic searched on Twitter. It is designed to assist Information Analysts in understanding and exploring complex events as they unfold in the world. The system tracks changes in emotions over events, signalling possible flashpoints or abatement. For each trending topic, the system also shows a sentiment graph showing how positive and negative sentiments are trending as the topic is getting trended.

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