An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

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The impact of climate change on urban transport resilience in a changing world

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133314538741 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 38 (4) ◽

pp. 448-463 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

David Jaroszweski ◽

Elizabeth Hooper ◽

Lee Chapman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Smart Cities ◽

Urban Transport ◽

Transport Systems ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091153 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1153

Author(s):

Shih-Jung Wang ◽

Cheng-Haw Lee ◽

Chen-Feng Yeh ◽

Yong Fern Choo ◽

Hung-Wei Tseng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Systems ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

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Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

Handbook of Research on Environmental Policies for Emergency Management and Public Safety - Advances in Wireless Technologies and Telecommunication ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-3194-4.ch012 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 223-237

Author(s):

Ali Syed ◽

Urooj Afshan Jabeen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Food Shortage ◽

Central Province ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Change Impact ◽

Agriculture And Food ◽

The Impact ◽

Late Sowing

Research on the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security is important, especially in the agricultural economies, not only to know the severity of impact but also the policies to be adapted to halt climate change and the technology to be used to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study was conducted in Kapiri Mposhi district of Central Province in Zambia to find out the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security. The objectives of study include to know the intensity of climate change and its impact on area under cultivation, late sowing of seed and damage of seed due to lack of water, fertilizer absorption reduction, food shortage, livestock, and productivity. The chapter also focuses on the sources of credit to the farmers.

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Effects of climate change on babesiosis vectors.

10.1079/9781789249637.0032 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 223-227

Author(s):

Jeremy Gray

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ixodes Ricinus ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Dermacentor Reticulatus ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Haemaphysalis Punctata ◽

Change Impact ◽

Abundance And Distribution ◽

The Impact

Abstract This chapter discusses the impact of climate change on the abundance and distribution of babesiosis vectors and, by implication, transmission of Babesia spp. It discusses evidence for climate change impact on the vectors Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Haemaphysalis punctata and Hyalomma spp. as well as the absence of evidence of the same climate change effects on the vectors Rhipicephalus spp. and I. scapularis.

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Assessing climate change impact on the hydropower potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta, West Africa)

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-384-349-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 384 ◽

pp. 349-354

Author(s):

Yacouba Yira ◽

Tariro Cynthia Mutsindikwa ◽

Aymar Yaovi Bossa ◽

Jean Hounkpè ◽

Seyni Salack

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Africa ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climate Models ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Hydropower Potential ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of future climate change (CC) on the hydropower generation potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta) in West Africa using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV light) and regional climate models (RCMs)–global climate models (GCMs). Two climate simulation datasets MPI-ESM-REMO (CORDEX) and GFDL-ESM2M-WRF (WASCAL) under RCP4.5 were applied to the validated hydrological model to simulate the catchment runoff. Based on reference and future simulated discharges, a theoretical 1.3 MW run of river hydro power plant was designed to evaluate the hydropower generation. Hydrological and hydropower generation changes were expressed as the relative difference between two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) and a reference period (1983–2005). The climate models' ensemble projected a mean annual precipitation increase by 8.8 % and 7.3 % and discharge increase by 11.4 % and 9.735 % for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods respectively (for bias corrected data). On the contrary an overall decrease of hydropower generation by −9.1 % and −8.4% for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods was projected respectively. The results indicate that projected increases in discharge should not solely be considered as leading to an increase in hydropower potential when prospecting climate change impact on hydropower.

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Climate Change Impact on Canadian Northern Shipping Regulations

Marine Technology and SNAME News ◽

10.5957/mt1.2007.44.4.245 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 44 (04) ◽

pp. 245-253

Author(s):

Ivana Kubat ◽

Robert Gorman ◽

Anne Collins ◽

Garry W. Timco

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

The Arctic ◽

Northwest Passage ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Ice Conditions ◽

Change Impact ◽

Ice Regime ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

The Impact

The objective of this study was to find what effect climate change would have on the Zone-Date System (ZDS). The paper presents an analysis of ice conditions in the Northwest Passage (NWP) shipping lanes and the access routes to the Port of Churchill in the Hudson Strait. The analysis examines the existing and potential changes to ice regimes in the NWP shipping lanes due to the impact of climate change. The length of the shipping season in the NWP is analyzed for each zone by both the ZDS and the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System, and both systems are then compared. This paper discusses the results of the analysis.

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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FATIGUE LIFE OF OFFSHORE STRUCTURES

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering ◽

10.1115/1.4052677 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-35

Author(s):

Irvin Alberto Mosquera ◽

Luis V. S. Sagrilo ◽

Paulo M. Videiro ◽

Fernando Sousa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fatigue Life ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Offshore Structures ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract Design life of offshore structures is in general in the 20-30 years range, with some cases going up to 50 years. Fatigue is one of the major design criteria for such structures. Climate change may affect the fatigue life of offshore structures, it would be necessary to update the design procedures to take into account climate change effects on structural performance. This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change in the long-term fatigue life of offshore structures due to wave loading. For this purpose, available environmental conditions for two locations (South East Brazilian Coast and North Atlantic Ocean) generated by the HadGEM-2S global climate model, considering RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway - RCP) future scenarios and the historical (past) scenarios are considered. The assessment in both locations is performed for two structural models: an idealized stress spectrum for a generic fatigue hot-spot and a Steel Lazy Wave Riser (SLWR) connected to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO). Fatigue life is estimated using the S-N curve approach. Results show that the impact on the fatigue life depends on the structure dynamic characteristics, on the geographic location and mainly on the greenhouse emission scenario. In general, for the Brazilian location, when compared to the historical scenario, most of the future scenarios lead to slightly higher fatigue damages (lower fatigue lives). On the other hand, for the North Atlantic location, there is not a clear trend for future climate change scenarios.

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Hygrothermal performance of log walls in a building of 18th century and prediction of climate change impact on biological deterioration

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202017215006 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 172 ◽

pp. 15006 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Petros Choidis ◽

Katerina Tsikaloudaki ◽

Dimitrios Kraniotis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Main Body ◽

Biological Degradation ◽

Historical Structures ◽

Hygrothermal Performance ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

Several studies underline the dramatic changes that are expected to take place in nature and environment due to climate change. The latter is also expected to affect the built environment. Particular emphasis is currently given to the impact of climate change on historical structures. Within this context, it is important to use simple methods and novel tools in order to investigate specific case studies. In this study, the climate change impact on the hygrothermal performance of the log walls in a historic timber building is presented. The building under investigation is the Fadum storehouse, also known as ‘the coated house’, located in Tønsberg, Norway. The storehouse dates to the late 18th century. It has a particular design with the main features of stumps or piles up to which it stands and the ‘coating’ that covers its outer walls. The main damage of the construction is related to the biological degradation of the wood. The hygrothermal performance of the log walls, as well as the exterior and interior climate, have been monitored and the results have been used to validate a Heat, Air and Moisture transport (HAM) model. The validated HAM model is then used to examine the performance of the log walls for both current and potential future climate conditions. The transient hygrothermal boundary conditions serve as the input parameters to a biohygrothermal model that is used to investigate the biological deterioration of the building components. The findings reveal that currently there is no mould risk for the main body of the construction, which is in accordance with the visual inspection. The passive systems of the building are highly conducive to these results, since they protect it from driving rain and other sources of moisture and eliminate the potential impact of future climate change risk scenarios.

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Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch074 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 1504-1518

Author(s):

Ali Syed ◽

Urooj Afshan Jabeen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Food Shortage ◽

Central Province ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Change Impact ◽

Agriculture And Food ◽

The Impact ◽

Late Sowing

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Assessment of climate change impact on different pigeonpea maturity groups in north Indian condition

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v23i1.92 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 82-92

Author(s):

M.K. YADAV ◽

C. PATEL ◽

R.S. SINGH ◽

K.K. SINGH ◽

R. BALASUBRAMANIAN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Short Duration ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Maturity Groups

The CROPGRO-pigeonpea model embedded in DSSAT v4.7.5 was used to assess the impact of climate change on phenology and grain yield of reference genotype of different pigeonpea maturity groups. The impact of climate change delayed reproductive stages (anthesis, maturity) and decreased grain yield of reference genotype of different pigeonpea maturity groups were evident in all scenarios. Short duration genotypes (MN5, ICPL88039, Prabhat, UPAS120) showed progressively higher decrease in yield as compared to medium (Maruti, Asha, ICP7035) and long (Bahar, MAL13) duration genotypes with each successive increase in scenatio from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 and projected year from 2010 to 2095. Anthesis was delayed 9 days in MN5 to 20 days in Bahar and maturity delayed 15 days in MN5 to 24 days in Bahar with RCP 8.5 in year 2095 in comparison to RCP2.6 in years 2010, whereas, grain yield was decreased 14% in Bahar to 66% in MN5 among genotypes of different maturity groups.

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