scholarly journals Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

Agronomy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Rui Yang ◽  
Panhong Dai ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Tao Jin ◽  
Ke Liu ◽  
...  

Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis.

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xiaoguang Yang ◽  
Enli Wang ◽  
Changying Xue

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 768-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Menegat ◽  
Ortrud Jäck ◽  
Jinwei Zhang ◽  
Kathrin Kleinknecht ◽  
Bettina U. Müller ◽  
...  

Japanese bindweed was found to be one of the most abundant and most difficult-to-control weed species during a 2-yr weed survey in more than 100 winter wheat fields in the North China Plain region. Multivariate data analysis showed that Japanese bindweed is most abundant at sites with comparative low nitrogen (N) fertilization intensities and low crop densities. To gain deeper insights into the biology of Japanese bindweed under various N fertilization intensities, winter wheat seeding rates, herbicide treatments, and their interactions, a 2-yr field experiment was performed. In nonfertilized plots, a herbicide efficacy (based on density reduction) of 22% for 2,4-D, and of 25% for tribenuron-methyl was found. The maximum herbicide efficacy in Nmin-fertilized plots (target N value based on expected crop yield minus soil mineral nitrogen content,) was 32% for 2,4-D and 34% for tribenuron-methyl. In plots fertilized according to the farmer's practices, a maximum herbicide efficacy of 72% for 2,4-D and of 64% for tribenuron-methyl could be observed. Furthermore, medium and high seeding rates improved the herbicide efficacy by at least 39% for tribenuron-methyl and 44% for 2,4-D compared to the low seeding rate. Winter wheat yield was not significantly affected by seeding rate itself, whereas at low and medium seeding rates, Nminfertilization was decreasing winter wheat yield significantly compared to the farmer's usual fertilization practice. At the highest seeding rate, Nminfertilization resulted in equal yields compared to the farmer's practices of fertilization.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3094
Author(s):  
Jianhua Yang ◽  
Jianjun Wu ◽  
Leizhen Liu ◽  
Hongkui Zhou ◽  
Adu Gong ◽  
...  

Understanding the winter wheat yield responses to drought are the keys to minimizing drought-related winter wheat yield losses under climate change. The research goal of our study is to explore the response patterns of winter wheat yield to drought in the North China Plain (NCP) and then further to study which climatic factors drive the response patterns. For this purpose, winter wheat yield was simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model. Drought was quantified by standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the contributions of the various climatic factors were evaluated using predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) method. The results showed that the responses of winter wheat yield to different time-scale droughts have obvious spatial differences from the north part to the south part in the NCP. Winter wheat yield is more sensitive to the medium (6–9 months) and long (9–12 months) time-scale droughts that occurred in the key growth periods (April and May). The different response patterns of winter wheat yield to the different time-scale droughts are mainly controlled by temperature and water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) in winter in the NCP. Compared with the water balance, temperature plays a more important role in driving the response pattern characteristics. These findings can provide a reference on how to reduce drought influences on winter wheat yield in the NCP.


2017 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 30-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Fang ◽  
Xiying Zhang ◽  
Suying Chen ◽  
Liwei Shao ◽  
Hongyong Sun

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