scholarly journals The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment—A Plan for Integrated, Large Fire–Atmosphere Field Campaigns

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Prichard ◽  
N. Larkin ◽  
Roger Ottmar ◽  
Nancy French ◽  
Kirk Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Smoke ◽  
Smoke Dispersion ◽  
Operational Systems

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is designed to collect integrated observations from large wildland fires and provide evaluation datasets for new models and operational systems. Wildland fire, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry models have become more sophisticated, and next-generation operational models will require evaluation datasets that are coordinated and comprehensive for their evaluation and advancement. Integrated measurements are required, including ground-based observations of fuels and fire behavior, estimates of fire-emitted heat and emissions fluxes, and observations of near-source micrometeorology, plume properties, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry. To address these requirements the FASMEE campaign design includes a study plan to guide the suite of required measurements in forested sites representative of many prescribed burning programs in the southeastern United States and increasingly common high-intensity fires in the western United States. Here we provide an overview of the proposed experiment and recommendations for key measurements. The FASMEE study provides a template for additional large-scale experimental campaigns to advance fire science and operational fire and smoke models.

An Evaluation of NDFD Weather Forecasts for Wildland Fire Behavior Prediction

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley G. Page ◽  
Natalie S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
Bret W. Butler ◽  
Jason M. Forthofer ◽  
Chris Gibson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Behavior Prediction

Abstract Wildland fire managers in the United States currently utilize the gridded forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) to make fire behavior predictions across complex landscapes during large wildfires. However, little is known about the NDFDs performance in remote locations with complex topography for weather variables important for fire behavior prediction, including air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. In this study NDFD forecasts for calendar year 2015 were evaluated in fire-prone locations across the conterminous United States during periods with the potential for active fire spread using the model performance statistics of root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean fractional bias (MFB), and mean bias error (MBE). Results indicated that NDFD forecasts of air temperature and relative humidity performed well with RMSEs of about 2°C and 10%–11%, respectively. However, wind speed was increasingly underpredicted when observed wind speeds exceeded about 4 m s−1, with MFB and MBE values of approximately −15% and −0.5 m s−1, respectively. The importance of accurate wind speed forecasts in terms of fire behavior prediction was confirmed, and the forecast accuracies needed to achieve “good” surface head fire rate-of-spread predictions were estimated as ±20%–30% of the observed wind speed. Weather station location, the specific forecast office, and terrain complexity had the largest impacts on wind speed forecast error, although the relatively low variance explained by the model (~37%) suggests that other variables are likely to be important. Based on these results it is suggested that wildland fire managers should use caution when utilizing the NDFD wind speed forecasts if high wind speed events are anticipated.

scholarly journals A Simple Model for Wildland Fire Vortex–Sink Interactions

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1014
Author(s):  
Bryan Quaife ◽  
Kevin Speer
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Lateral Spreading ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Poisson Equations ◽  
Fuel Burn ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
The Stability

A model is developed to explore fire–atmosphere interactions due to the convective sink and vorticity sources in a highly simplified and idealized form, in order to examine their effect on spread and the stability of various fire front geometries. The model is constructed in a cellular automata framework, is linear, and represents a background flow, convective sink, and vortices induced by the fire plume at every burning cell. We use standard techniques to solve the resulting Poisson equations with careful attention to the boundary conditions. A modified Bresenham algorithm is developed to represent convection. The three basic flow types—large-scale background flow, sink flow, and vortex circulation—interact in a complex fashion as the geometry of the fire evolves. Fire-generated vortex–sink interactions produce a range of fire behavior, including unsteady spread rate, lateral spreading, and dynamic fingering. In this simplified framework, pulsation is found associated with evolving fire-line width, a fire-front acceleration in junction fires, and the breakup of longer initial fire lines into multiple head fires. Fuel is very simply represented by a single burn time parameter. The model fuel is uniform yet patchiness occurs due to a dynamic interaction of diffusive and convective effects. The interplay of fire-induced wind and the geometry of the fire front depends also on the fuel burn time.

Review of Wildland Fire Smoke Dispersion Models and Suggestion for Korean Forest-Fire Smoke Impact Forecast System

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 197-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joowon Park ◽  
◽  
Ho Jung Youn ◽  
Byung Doo Lee ◽  
Choong Shik Woo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Dispersion Models ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Fire Smoke ◽  
Smoke Dispersion

scholarly journals Comparison of Ozone Measurement Methods in Biomass Burning Smoke: An evaluation under field and laboratory conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell W. Long ◽  
Andrew Whitehill ◽  
Andrew Habel ◽  
Shawn Urbanski ◽  
Hannah Halliday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gas Phase ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
The United States ◽  
Photometric Method ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Fire Plumes ◽  
Fire Smoke ◽  
Field And Laboratory Conditions

Abstract. In recent years wildland fires in the United States have had significant impacts on local and regional air quality and negative human health outcomes. Although the primary health concerns from wildland fires come from fine particulate matter (PM2.5), large increases in ozone (O3) are also observed downwind of wildland fire plumes. Conditions generated in and around wildland fire plumes, including the presence of interfering chemical species, can make the accurate measurement of O3 concentrations using the ultraviolet (UV) photometric method challenging if not impossible. UV photometric method instruments are prone to interferences by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are present at high concentrations in wildland fire smoke. Four different O3 measurement methodologies were deployed in a mobile sampling platform downwind of active prescribed grassland fire lines in Kansas and Oregon and during controlled chamber burns at the United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana. We demonstrate that the Federal Reference Method (FRM) nitric oxide (NO) chemiluminescence monitors and Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) gas-phase (NO) chemical scrubber UV photometric O3 monitors are relatively interference-free, even in near-field combustion plumes. In contrast, FEM UV photometric O3 monitors using solid-phase catalytic scrubbers show positive artifacts that are positively correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) and total gas phase hydrocarbons (THC), two indicator species of biomass burning. Of the two catalytic scrubber UV photometric methods evaluated, the instruments that included a Nafion® tube dryer in the sample introduction system had artifacts an order of magnitude smaller than the instrument with no humidity correction. We hypothesize that Nafion®--permeable VOCs (such as aromatic hydrocarbons) could be a significant source of interference for catalytic scrubber UV photometric O3 monitors, and that the inclusion of a Nafion® tube dryer assists with the mitigation of these interferences. The interference-free chemiluminescence FRM method is highly recommended for accurate measurements of O3 in wildland fire plume studies and at regulatory ambient monitoring sites frequently impacted by wildland fire smoke.

scholarly journals Comparison of ozone measurement methods in biomass burning smoke: an evaluation under field and laboratory conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1783-1800
Author(s):  
Russell W. Long ◽  
Andrew Whitehill ◽  
Andrew Habel ◽  
Shawn Urbanski ◽  
Hannah Halliday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gas Phase ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
The United States ◽  
Photometric Method ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Fire Plumes ◽  
Fire Smoke ◽  
Field And Laboratory Conditions

Abstract. In recent years wildland fires in the United States have had significant impacts on local and regional air quality and negative human health outcomes. Although the primary health concerns from wildland fires come from fine particulate matter (PM2.5), large increases in ozone (O3) have been observed downwind of wildland fire plumes (DeBell et al., 2004; Bytnerowicz et al., 2010; Preisler et al., 2010; Jaffe et al., 2012; Bytnerowicz et al., 2013; Jaffe et al., 2013; Lu et al., 2016; Lindaas et al., 2017; McClure and Jaffe, 2018; Liu et al., 2018; Baylon et al., 2018; Buysse et al., 2019). Conditions generated in and around wildland fire plumes, including the presence of interfering chemical species, can make the accurate measurement of O3 concentrations using the ultraviolet (UV) photometric method challenging if not impossible. UV photometric method instruments are prone to interferences by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are present at high concentrations in wildland fire smoke. Four different O3 measurement methodologies were deployed in a mobile sampling platform downwind of active prescribed grassland fire lines in Kansas and Oregon and during controlled chamber burns at the United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana. We demonstrate that the Federal Reference Method (FRM) nitric oxide (NO) chemiluminescence monitors and Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) gas-phase (NO) chemical scrubber UV photometric O3 monitors are relatively interference-free, even in near-field combustion plumes. In contrast, FEM UV photometric O3 monitors using solid-phase catalytic scrubbers show positive artifacts that are positively correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) and total gas-phase hydrocarbon (THC), two indicator species of biomass burning. Of the two catalytic scrubber UV photometric methods evaluated, the instruments that included a Nafion® tube dryer in the sample introduction system had artifacts an order of magnitude smaller than the instrument with no humidity correction. We hypothesize that Nafion®-permeating VOCs (such as aromatic hydrocarbons) could be a significant source of interference for catalytic scrubber UV photometric O3 monitors and that the inclusion of a Nafion® tube dryer assists with the mitigation of these interferences. The chemiluminescence FRM method is highly recommended for accurate measurements of O3 in wildland fire plume studies and at regulatory ambient monitoring sites frequently impacted by wildland fire smoke.

Quality Control of Data in a Large-Scale Cancer Register Program

1966 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. I. Lourie ◽  
W. Haenszeland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Cancer Register ◽  
Independent Review ◽  
End Results

Quality control of data collected in the United States by the Cancer End Results Program utilizing punchcards prepared by participating registries in accordance with a Uniform Punchcard Code is discussed. Existing arrangements decentralize responsibility for editing and related data processing to the local registries with centralization of tabulating and statistical services in the End Results Section, National Cancer Institute. The most recent deck of punchcards represented over 600,000 cancer patients; approximately 50,000 newly diagnosed cases are added annually.Mechanical editing and inspection of punchcards and field audits are the principal tools for quality control. Mechanical editing of the punchcards includes testing for blank entries and detection of in-admissable or inconsistent codes. Highly improbable codes are subjected to special scrutiny. Field audits include the drawing of a 1-10 percent random sample of punchcards submitted by a registry; the charts are .then reabstracted and recoded by a NCI staff member and differences between the punchcard and the results of independent review are noted.

Utopias of One

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kotin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jim Crow ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Original Research ◽  
The Soviet Union

This book is a new account of utopian writing. It examines how eight writers—Henry David Thoreau, W. E. B. Du Bois, Osip and Nadezhda Mandel'shtam, Anna Akhmatova, Wallace Stevens, Ezra Pound, and J. H. Prynne—construct utopias of one within and against modernity's two large-scale attempts to harmonize individual and collective interests: liberalism and communism. The book begins in the United States between the buildup to the Civil War and the end of Jim Crow; continues in the Soviet Union between Stalinism and the late Soviet period; and concludes in England and the United States between World War I and the end of the Cold War. In this way it captures how writers from disparate geopolitical contexts resist state and normative power to construct perfect worlds—for themselves alone. The book contributes to debates about literature and politics, presenting innovative arguments about aesthetic difficulty, personal autonomy, and complicity and dissent. It models a new approach to transnational and comparative scholarship, combining original research in English and Russian to illuminate more than a century and a half of literary and political history.

Situational Breakdowns

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Nassauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Outcomes ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

This book provides an account of how and why routine interactions break down and how such situational breakdowns lead to protest violence and other types of surprising social outcomes. It takes a close-up look at the dynamic processes of how situations unfold and compares their role to that of motivations, strategies, and other contextual factors. The book discusses factors that can draw us into violent situations and describes how and why we make uncommon individual and collective decisions. Covering different types of surprise outcomes from protest marches and uprisings turning violent to robbers failing to rob a store at gunpoint, it shows how unfolding situations can override our motivations and strategies and how emotions and culture, as well as rational thinking, still play a part in these events. The first chapters study protest violence in Germany and the United States from 1960 until 2010, taking a detailed look at what happens between the start of a protest and the eruption of violence or its peaceful conclusion. They compare the impact of such dynamics to the role of police strategies and culture, protesters’ claims and violent motivations, the black bloc and agents provocateurs. The analysis shows how violence is triggered, what determines its intensity, and which measures can avoid its outbreak. The book explores whether we find similar situational patterns leading to surprising outcomes in other types of small- and large-scale events: uprisings turning violent, such as Ferguson in 2014 and Baltimore in 2015, and failed armed store robberies.

Ban Ki-moon, 2007–2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gowan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Council Decision ◽  
The Face

During Ban Ki-moon’s tenure, the Security Council was shaken by P5 divisions over Kosovo, Georgia, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet it also continued to mandate and sustain large-scale peacekeeping operations in Africa, placing major burdens on the UN Secretariat. The chapter will argue that Ban initially took a cautious approach to controversies with the Council, and earned a reputation for excessive passivity in the face of crisis and deference to the United States. The second half of the chapter suggests that Ban shifted to a more activist pressure as his tenure went on, pressing the Council to act in cases including Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Syria. The chapter will argue that Ban had only a marginal impact on Council decision-making, even though he made a creditable effort to speak truth to power over cases such as the Central African Republic (CAR), challenging Council members to live up to their responsibilities.

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