scholarly journals Multi-Weather Evaluation of Nowcasting Methods Including a New Empirical Blending Scheme

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1166
Author(s):  
Hsin-Hung Lin ◽  
Chih-Chien Tsai ◽  
Jia-Chyi Liou ◽  
Yu-Chun Chen ◽  
Chung-Yi Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Model Prediction ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
System A ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

This study utilized a radar echo extrapolation system, a high-resolution numerical model with radar data assimilation, and three blending schemes including a new empirical one, called the extrapolation adjusted by model prediction (ExAMP), to carry out 150 min reflectivity nowcasting experiments for various heavy rainfall events in Taiwan in 2019. ExAMP features full trust in the pattern of the extrapolated reflectivity with intensity adjustable by numerical model prediction. The spatial performance for two contrasting events shows that the ExAMP scheme outperforms the others for the more accurate prediction of both strengthening and weakening processes. The statistical skill for all the sampled events shows that the nowcasts by ExAMP and the extrapolation system obtain the lowest and second lowest root mean square errors at all the lead time, respectively. In terms of threat scores and bias scores above certain reflectivity thresholds, the ExAMP nowcast may have more grid points of misses for high reflectivity in comparison to extrapolation, but serious overestimation among the points of hits and false alarms is the least likely to happen with the new scheme. Moreover, the event type does not change the performance ranking of the five methods, all of which have the highest predictability for a typhoon event and the lowest for local thunderstorm events.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal patterns and extremity assessment of heavy rainfall events in Germany, derived from a radar-based catalogue (CatRaRE, 2001-2020)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewelina Walawender ◽  
Katharina Lengfeld ◽  
Tanja Winterrath ◽  
Elmar Weigl ◽  
Andreas Becker
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Antecedent Precipitation ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>One of the predicted effects of climate change in Central Europe is a growing number and increasing extremity of heavy rainfalls. Thus, it is of a great importance not only to develop best possible nowcasting methods and long-term forecasting models, but also to look closer at the structure and detailed characteristics of extreme events that have already taken place.</p><p>With this objective, the German Weather Service (DWD) has developed a Catalogue of Radar-based Heavy Rainfall Events (CatRaRE), derived from 20 years of climatological radar data for the area of Germany.</p><p>Using hourly data of about 1 km spatial resolution, an object-oriented analysis is performed to classify spatially and timely independent rainfall events exceeding the official warning level for heavy precipitation. Events with duration between 1 and 72 hours are investigated and statistically analysed. Apart from various extremity attributes, like return period, heavy precipitation, and weather extremity indices, the catalogue is enriched with additional variables (e.g. weather type, antecedent precipitation index, population density, land cover, imperviousness degree, Topographic Position Index), providing the meteorological background and helping to estimate the possible impact, each event could provoke.</p><p>The Catalogue is freely available via DWD’s Open Data Portal in both a tabular and spatial (GIS) format. In addition, a user friendly online Dashboard was developed to visualize the data and communicate our results to a broader audience. </p><p>We will present the CatRaRE Catalogue and results of a comprehensive analysis of all classified heavy precipitation events that occurred in Germany between 2001 and 2020. Different time scales from diurnal to multi-annual, as well as identified spatial patterns in connection with event attributes will be illustrated. Most common weather types, favouring occurrence of detected events will be outlined. Finally, we will demonstrate selected application possibilities by combining the catalogue with other datasets (e.g. fire brigade operations).</p>

Improving Radar Echo Lagrangian Extrapolation Nowcasting by Blending Numerical Model Wind Information: Statistical Performance of 16 Typhoon Cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (3) ◽  
pp. 1099-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kao-Shen Chung ◽  
I-An Yao
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Motion Field ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Model Forecast ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Extrapolation Algorithm ◽  
Radar Echoes ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Central Weather Bureau

Abstract Severe weather nowcasting is a crucial mission of atmospheric science for the betterment of society to save life, limb, and property. In this study, composite radar data from the Central Weather Bureau of 16 typhoons are collected to examine the statistical performance of the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting using Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) over Taiwan, an extrapolation algorithm that predicts future precipitation based on current radar echoes. In addition, instead of mixing the precipitation between radar extrapolation and numerical model forecast as in previous studies, a blending system is formed by synthesizing the wind information from model forecast with the echo extrapolation motion field via a variational algorithm to improve the nowcasting system. The statistical results of the radar echo extrapolation for 16 typhoon cases show that while the quantitative precipitation nowcasting skill can persist for up to 2 h, significant distortion for the rotational system is found after 2 h. On the other hand, the blending system helps to capture and maintain the rotation of typhoon rainband structures. The blending system extends the nowcasting skill by 1 h to a total of 3 h. Furthermore, the blending scheme performs especially well after the typhoon makes landfall in Taiwan. For disaster prevention and mitigation, this blending nowcasting technique may provide effective weather information immediately.

scholarly journals Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Viorica Nagavciuc
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m−1 s−1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

scholarly journals Comparison of Target Detectors to Identify Icebergs in Quad-Polarimetric L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1753
Author(s):  
Johnson Bailey ◽  
Armando Marino ◽  
Vahid Akbari
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Synthetic Aperture Radar ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Open Ocean ◽  
Synthetic Aperture ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Synthetic Aperture Radar Data ◽  
Whitening Filter ◽  
Aperture Radar

Icebergs represent hazards to ships and maritime activities and therefore their detection is essential. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites are very useful for this, due to their capability to acquire data under cloud cover and during day and night passes. In this work, we compared six state-of-the-art polarimetric target detectors to test their performance and ability to detect small-sized icebergs <120 m in four locations in Greenland. We used four single-look complex (SLC) ALOS-2 quad-polarimetric images from JAXA for quad-polarimetric detection and we compared with dual-polarimetric detectors using only the channels HH and HV. We also compared these detectors with single-polarimetric intensity channels and we tested using two scenarios: open ocean and sea ice. Our results show that the multi-look polarimetric whitening filter (MPWF) and the optimal polarimetric detector (OPD) provide the most optimal performance in quad- and dual-polarimetric mode detection. The analysis shows that, overall, quad-polarimetric detectors provide the best detection performance. When the false alarm rate (PF) is fixed to 10-5, the probabilities of detection (PD) are 0.99 in open ocean and 0.90 in sea ice. Dual-polarimetric or single-polarimetric detectors show an overall reduction in performance (the ROC curves show a decrease), but this degradation is not very large (<0.1) when the value of false alarms is relatively high (i.e., we are interested in bigger icebergs with a brighter backscattering >120 m, as they are easier to detect). However, the differences between quad- and dual- or single-polarimetric detectors became much more evident when the PF value was fixed to low detection probabilities 10-6 (i.e., smaller icebergs). In the single-polarimetric mode, the HV channel showed PD values of 0.62 for open ocean and 0.26 for sea ice, compared to values of 0.81 (open ocean) and 0.77 (sea ice) obtained with quad-polarimetric detectors.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mesoscale Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Structure ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
Moist Condition ◽  
Virtual Temperature ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract The authors analyze the mesoscale structure accompanying two multiday periods of heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon Experiment and the Terrain-Induced Mesoscale Rainfall Experiment conducted over and near Taiwan during May and June 2008. Each period is about 5–6 days long with episodic heavy rainfall events within. These events are shown to correspond primarily to periods when well-defined frontal boundaries are established near the coast. The boundaries are typically 1 km deep or less and feature contrasts of virtual temperature of only 2°–3°C. Yet, owing to the extremely moist condition of the upstream conditionally unstable air, these boundaries appear to exert a profound influence on convection initiation or intensification near the coast. Furthermore, the boundaries, once established, are long lived, possibly reinforced through cool downdrafts and prolonged by the absence of diurnal heating over land in generally cloudy conditions. These boundaries are linked phenomenologically with coastal fronts that occur at higher latitudes.

Fuzzy Logic Classification of S-Band Polarimetric Radar Echoes to Identify Three-Body Scattering and Improve Data Quality

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (8) ◽  
pp. 2017-2033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek N. Mahale ◽  
Guifu Zhang ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Membership Functions ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Three Body ◽  
Reflectivity Factor

AbstractThe three-body scatter signature (TBSS) is a radar artifact that appears downrange from a high-radar-reflectivity core in a thunderstorm as a result of the presence of hailstones. It is useful to identify the TBSS artifact for quality control of radar data used in numerical weather prediction and quantitative precipitation estimation. Therefore, it is advantageous to develop a method to automatically identify TBSS in radar data for the above applications and to help identify hailstones within thunderstorms. In this study, a fuzzy logic classification algorithm for TBSS identification is developed. Polarimetric radar data collected by the experimental S-band Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), are used to develop trapezoidal membership functions for the TBSS class of radar echo within a hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA). Nearly 3000 radar gates are removed from 50 TBSSs to develop the membership functions from the data statistics. Five variables are investigated for the discrimination of the radar echo: 1) horizontal radar reflectivity factor ZH, 2) differential reflectivity ZDR, 3) copolar cross-correlation coefficient ρhv, 4) along-beam standard deviation of horizontal radar reflectivity factor SD(ZH), and 5) along-beam standard deviation of differential phase SD(ΦDP). These membership functions are added to an HCA to identify TBSSs. Testing is conducted on radar data collected by dual-polarization-upgraded operational WSR-88Ds from multiple severe-weather events, and results show that automatic identification of the TBSS through the enhanced HCA is feasible for operational use.

scholarly journals An Improved Weighting Method of Time-Lag-Ensemble Averaging for Hourly Precipitation Forecasts and Its Application in a Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfall Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Li Zhou ◽  
Lin Xu ◽  
Mingcai Lan ◽  
Jingjing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy rainfall events often cause great societal and economic impacts. The prediction ability of traditional extrapolation techniques decreases rapidly with the increase in the lead time. Moreover, deficiencies of high-resolution numerical models and high-frequency data assimilation will increase the prediction uncertainty. To address these shortcomings, based on the hourly precipitation prediction of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast (GRAPES-CHAF) and Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), we present an improved weighting method of time-lag-ensemble averaging for hourly precipitation forecast which gives more weight to heavy rainfall and can quickly select the optimal ensemble members for forecasting. In addition, by using the cross-magnitude weight (CMW) method, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), the verification results of hourly precipitation forecast for next six hours in Hunan Province during the 2019 typhoon Bailu case and heavy rainfall events from April to September in 2020 show that the revised forecast method can more accurately capture the characteristics of the hourly short-range precipitation forecast and improve the forecast accuracy and the probability of detection of heavy rainfall.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

Diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanil Park ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Joowan Kim ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

AbstractThis study identifies diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events (HREs) in South Korea. The HREs not directly connected to tropical cyclones (TCs) (81.1%) are typically associated with a midlatitude cyclone from eastern China, the expanded North Pacific high and strong southwesterly moisture transport in between. They are frequent both in the first (early summer) and second rainy periods (late summer) with impacts on the south coast and west of the mountainous region. In contrast, the HREs resulting from TCs (18.9%) are caused by the synergetic interaction between the TC and meandering midlatitude flow, especially in the second rainy period. The strong south-southeasterly moisture transport makes the southern and eastern coastal regions prone to the TC-driven HREs. By applying a self-organizing map algorithm to the non-TC HREs, their surface weather patterns are further classified into six clusters. Clusters 1 and 3 exhibit frontal boundary between the low and high with differing relative strengths. Clusters 2 and 5 feature an extratropical cyclone migrating from eastern China under different background sea-level pressure patterns. Cluster 4 is characterized by the expanded North Pacific high with no organized negative sea-level pressure anomaly, and cluster 6 displays a development of a moisture pathway between the continental and oceanic highs. Each cluster exhibits a distinct spatio-temporal occurrence distribution. The result provides useful guidance for predicting the HREs by depicting important factors to be differently considered depending on their synoptic categorization.

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