scholarly journals Big Data Analytics for Long-Term Meteorological Observations at Hanford Site

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Huifen Zhou ◽  
Huiying Ren ◽  
Patrick Royer ◽  
Hongfei Hou ◽  
Xiao-Ying Yu
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Classical Statistics

A growing number of physical objects with embedded sensors with typically high volume and frequently updated data sets has accentuated the need to develop methodologies to extract useful information from big data for supporting decision making. This study applies a suite of data analytics and core principles of data science to characterize near real-time meteorological data with a focus on extreme weather events. To highlight the applicability of this work and make it more accessible from a risk management perspective, a foundation for a software platform with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to access and analyze data from a decommissioned nuclear production complex operated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, Richland, USA). Exploratory data analysis (EDA), involving classical non-parametric statistics, and machine learning (ML) techniques, were used to develop statistical summaries and learn characteristic features of key weather patterns and signatures. The new approach and GUI provide key insights into using big data and ML to assist site operation related to safety management strategies for extreme weather events. Specifically, this work offers a practical guide to analyzing long-term meteorological data and highlights the integration of ML and classical statistics to applied risk and decision science.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of extreme weather events on potable water quality: the value to managers of a highly participatory, integrated modelling approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
Edoardo Bertone ◽  
Oz Sahin ◽  
Russell Richards ◽  
Anne Roiko
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Sd Model

Abstract A decision support tool was created to estimate the treatment efficiency of an Australian drinking water treatment system based on different combinations of extreme weather events and long-term changes. To deal with uncertainties, missing data, and nonlinear behaviours, a Bayesian network (BN) was coupled with a system dynamics (SD) model. The preliminary conceptual structures of these models were developed through stakeholders' consultation. The BN model could rank extreme events, and combinations of them, based on the severity of their impact on health-related water quality. The SD model, in turn, was used to run a long-term estimation of extreme events' impacts by including temporal factors such as increased water demand and customer feedback. The integration of the two models was performed through a combined Monte Carlo–fuzzy logic approach which allowed to take the BN's outputs as inputs for the SD model. The final product is a participatory, multidisciplinary decision support system allowing for robust, sustainable long-term water resources management under uncertain conditions for a specific location.

scholarly journals Understanding Mesoscopic Chemo-Mechanical Distress and Mitigation Mechanisms of Concrete Subject to ASR

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Asif Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Mechanical Damage ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Alkali Silica Reaction ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Concrete Damage

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) is one of the common sources of concrete damage worldwide. The surrounding environment, namely, temperature and humidity greatly influence the alkali-silica reaction induced expansion. Global warming (GW) has caused frequent change in the climate and initiated extreme weather events in recent years. These extreme events anticipate random change in temperature and humidity, and convey potential threats to the concrete infrastructure. Moreover, external loading conditions also affect the service life of concrete. Thus, complex mechanisms of ASR under the impact of seasonal change and global warming require a precise quantitative assessment to guide the durable infrastructure materials design practices. Despite decades of phenological observation study, the expansion behavior of ASR under these situations remains to be understood for capturing the ASR damage properly. Within this context this research focuses on the mathematical model development to quantify and mitigate ASR-induced damage. Mesoscale characteristics of ASR concrete was captured in the virtual cement-concrete lab where the ASR gel-induced expansion zone was added as a uniform thickness shell. Finite element method (FEM) was used to solve the ASR formation and expansion evolution. The results of this study are presented in the form of one conference and their journal manuscripts. The first manuscript focuses on the development of the governing equations based on the chemical formulas of alkali-silica reaction to account for the ASR kinetics and swelling pressure exerted by the ASR expansion. There is a fluid flow and mass transfer in the concrete domain due to ASR gel associated from ASR kinetics. This paper involves derivation of the mass and momentum balance equation in terms of the thermo-hygro-mechanical (THM) model. THM model accounts for thermal expansion and hygroscopic swelling in addition to traffic loads to represent volumetric change in the concrete domain. The second manuscript is a case study based on different cement-aggregate proportions and alkali hydroxide concentrations. It is important to know how ASR evolves under variable concentration of the chemical species. The simulated results show that high concentration of hydroxide ion in concrete initiates more reaction and damage in concrete. Also chemical reaction moves to the right direction with low cement to aggregate ratio which means ASR expansion depends on the availability of the reactive aggregates in the concrete domain. The third manuscript attempts to develop a simplified ASR model that integrates chemo-physio-mechanical damage under stochastic weather impact. Stochasicity incorporates the random behavior of surrounding nature in the model. The simulated results elucidate that ASR expansion is more severe under the influence of global warming and climate change. This will support long-term damage forecasts of concrete subjected to extreme weather events. The fourth manuscript focuses on the quantification of mechanical damage under ASR expansion and a dedicated mitigation scheme to minimize it. Added creep loads and physics identify the role of creep damage on ASR expansion. The results from this paper confirms that the ASR-induced damage significantly minimize the load carrying capacity of concrete. It directly affects the compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity of concrete. Damage in aggregates domain is more than the mortar phase under the creep loadings. Among many supplementary materials, fly ash is the most effective in minimizing ASR expansion and damage. This work also includes a petrographic comparison between different mineral types collected from different locations to identify the reactivity of certain aggregates. Thus, the final outcome of this research is a complete model which is a conclusive solution to the long-term ASR damage prediction. The validated model provides better understanding of ASR kinetics from mesoscale perspective. The developed model can potentially accelerate the precise prediction of concrete service life and mitigation schemes as well as can be used as an alternative scope to the costly laboratory tests methods.

scholarly journals Long-term effects of extreme weather events and eutrophication on the fish community of shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia)

2013 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Külli Kangur ◽  
Peeter Kangur ◽  
Kai Ginter ◽  
Kati Orru ◽  
Marina Haldna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Lake ◽  
Fish Community ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Lake Peipsi ◽  
Weather Events

scholarly journals Palaeoclimatological perspective on river basin hydrometeorology: case of the Mekong Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 2069-2081 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
C. Lehr ◽  
I. Mellin ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
M. Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Case Study Area ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract. Globally, there have been many extreme weather events in recent decades. A challenge has been to determine whether these extreme weather events have increased in number and intensity compared to the past. This challenge is made more difficult due to the lack of long-term instrumental data, particularly in terms of river discharge, in many regions including Southeast Asia. Thus our main aim in this paper is to develop a river basin scale approach for assessing interannual hydrometeorological and discharge variability on long, palaeological, time scales. For the development of the basin-wide approach, we used the Mekong River basin as a case study area, although the approach is also intended to be applicable to other basins. Firstly, we derived a basin-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Secondly, we compared the basin-wide PDSI with measured discharge to validate our approach. Thirdly, we used basin-wide PDSI to analyse the hydrometeorology and discharge of the case study area over the study period of 1300–2005. For the discharge-MADA comparison and hydrometeorological analyses, we used methods such as linear correlations, smoothing, moving window variances, Levene type tests for variances, and wavelet analyses. We found that the developed basin-wide approach based on MADA can be used for assessing long-term average conditions and interannual variability for river basin hydrometeorology and discharge. It provides a tool for studying interannual discharge variability on a palaeological time scale, and therefore the approach contributes to a better understanding of discharge variability during the most recent decades. Our case study revealed that the Mekong has experienced exceptional levels of interannual variability during the post-1950 period, which could not be observed in any other part of the study period. The increased variability was found to be at least partly associated with increased El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity.

scholarly journals Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgeta Mihaela Bucur ◽  
Anca Cristina Babes
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Sugar Accumulation ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Term Study ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Hot Days

The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has been found a significant increase in the number of hot days (Tmax > 30°C) and very hot days (Tmax > 35°C). The evolution of these extreme events was followed in Craiova, Constanta, Bucharest, Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Oradea and Iasi, between 1977 and 2015. The long term study (18 years) conducted in the experimental plantation of the University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Bucharest revealed their influence on vine. During the last two decades, there has been registered a trend of increasing the frequency and intensity of winter frost, damaging vine (Tmin < -20°C), heat waves (number of days with Tmax > 30°C and > 35°C) and droughts that adversely affect viticulture, production and quality of grapes and wine. The highest warming trends were observed for northern viticultural regions (Transylvania and Moldavia) and for the seaside. Although the intensification of heat waves increases sugar accumulation in the berries, they trigger a significant reduction in grape production and in titrable acidity, requiring corrections and resulting in unbalanced wines. Meanwhile, droughts trigger production decrease. To avoid negative effects on vine, it is necessary to take measures, both on a short, medium and long term.

scholarly journals Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 781-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Frame ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Ilan Noy ◽  
Luke J. Harrington ◽  
Trevor Carey-Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract An important and under-quantified facet of the risks associated with human-induced climate change emerges through extreme weather. In this paper, we present an initial attempt to quantify recent costs related to extreme weather due to human interference in the climate system, focusing on economic costs arising from droughts and floods in New Zealand during the decade 2007–2017. We calculate these using previously collected information about the damages and losses associated with past floods and droughts, and estimates of the “fraction of attributable risk” that characterizes each event. The estimates we obtain are not comprehensive, and almost certainly represent an underestimate of the full economic costs of climate change, notably chronic costs associated with long-term trends. However, the paper shows the potential for developing a new stream of information that is relevant to a range of stakeholders and research communities, especially those with an interest in the aggregation of the costs of climate change or the identification of specific costs associated with potential liability.

Preparedness and response at long-term care facilities following Hurricane Sandy: A qualitative analysis of experiences and attitudes among staff and administrators

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 383-398
Author(s):  
Lynn Jiang, MD ◽  
Christopher M. Tedeschi, MD, MA
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Electrical Power ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Semistructured Interview ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Care Facilities

Background: In late 2012, Hurricane Sandy struck the eastern United States. Healthcare infrastructure in New York City—including long-term care facilities (LTCFs)—was affected significantly. The authors examined the impact of the storm on LTCFs 2 years after the event, using a qualitative approach consisting of a semistructured interview focused on preparedness and response. Important insights regarding preparedness and response may be lost by quantitative analysis or outcome measurement alone. During Sandy, individuals at LTCFs experienced the event in important subjective ways that, in aggregate, could lead to valuable insights about how facilities might mitigate future risks. The authors used data from a semistructured interview to generate hypotheses regarding the preparation and response of LTCFs. The interview tool was designed to help develop theories to explain why LTCF staff and administrators experienced the event in the way they did, and to use that data to inform future policy and research. Methods: Representatives from LTCFs located in a heavily affected area of New York City were approached for participation in a semistructured interview. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed. Recurrent themes were coded based on time period (before, during, or after the storm) and content. A grounded theory approach was used to identify important themes related to the participants’ experiences.Results: A total of 21 interviews were conducted. Several overarching themes were identified, including a perception that facilities had not prepared for an event of such magnitude, of inefficient communication and logistics during evacuation, and of lack of easily identifiable or appropriate resources after the event. Access to electrical power emerged as a key identifier of recovery for most facilities. The experience had a substantial psychological impact on LTCF staff regardless of whether they evacuated or sheltered in place during the storm.Conclusion: Representatives from LTCFs affected by Sandy experienced the preparation, response, and recovery phases of the event with a unique perspective. Their insights offer evidence which can be used to generate testable hypothesis regarding similar events in the future, and can inform policy makers and facility administrators alike as they prepare for extreme weather events in similar settings. Results specifically suggest that LTCFs develop plans which carefully address the unique qualities of extreme weather events, including communication with local officials, evacuation and transfer needs in geographic areas with multiple facilities, and plans for the safe transfer of residents. Emergency managers at LTCFs should consider electrical power needs with the understanding that in extreme weather events, power failures can be more protracted than in other types of emergencies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document