Vegetation and Glacier Trends in the Area of the Maritime Alps Natural Park (Italy): MaxEnt Application to Predict Habitat Development

Climate change is significantly affecting ecosystem services and leading to strong impacts on the extent and distribution of glaciers and vegetation. In this context, species distribution models represent a suitable instrument for studying ecosystem development and response to climate warming. This study applies the maximum entropy model, MaxEnt, to evaluate trends and effects of climate change for three environmental indicators in the area of the Alpi Marittime Natural Park under the Municipality of Entracque (Italy). Specifically, this study focuses on the magnitude of the retreat of six glaciers and on the distribution of two different plant communities, Alnus viridis scrub and Fagus sylvatica forest associated with Acer pseudoplatanus and tall herbs (megaforbie), in relation to predicted increases in mean temperatures. MaxEnt software was used to model and observe changes over a thirty-year period, developing three scenarios: a present (2019), a past (1980) and a future (2050) using 24 “environmental layers”. This study showed the delicate climate balances of these six small glaciers that, in the next 30 years, are likely to undergo an important retreat (≈−33%) despite the high altitude and important snowfall that still characterize the area. At the same time, it is predicted that the two plant communities will invade those higher altitude territories that, not so long ago, were inhospitable, expanding their habitat by 50%. The MaxEnt application to glaciers has shown to be an effective tool that offers a new perspective in the climate change field as well as in biodiversity conservation planning.

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Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f13010064 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 64

Author(s):

Yuyu Wang ◽

Peng Dong ◽

Wenjia Hu ◽

Guangcheng Chen ◽

Dian Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Habitat Management ◽

Scientific Basis ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Wetland Ecosystems ◽

Suitable Area

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.

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Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality ofSchisandra sphenantheraunder climate change

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.2554 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. e2554 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Yanlong Guo ◽

Haiyan Wei ◽

Chunyan Lu ◽

Bei Gao ◽

Wei Gu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Medicinal Plants ◽

Fuzzy Theory ◽

Plant Distribution ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Future

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants.Schisandra sphenantheraRehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment forS. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution ofS. spenantherawere also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat ofS. sphenantheraunder all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat ofS. sphenantherawould gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas forS. sphenantherawhen the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management ofS. sphenantheraand can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

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Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublands

10.2737/psw-rp-270 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Erin C. Riordan ◽

Arlee M. Montalvo ◽

Jan L. Beyers

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Restoration ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Southern California ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models

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Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽

10.3390/biology10010063 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽

Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽

Walaa A. Hassan ◽

Ali El-Keblawy ◽

Kaiwen Pan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

In Situ Conservation ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Conservation Assessment ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Annual Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Land ◽

10.3390/land10010001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández ◽

Fabián Martínez-Hernández ◽

Esteban Salmerón-Sánchez ◽

Francisco J. Pérez-García ◽

Blas Teruel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Plant Communities ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Agricultural Landscape ◽

Agricultural Landscapes ◽

Eastern Coast ◽

Ecological Value ◽

Distribution Models ◽

European Continent ◽

Major Interest ◽

Maytenus Senegalensis

Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea is a shrub belonging to the Celastraceae family, whose only European populations are distributed discontinuously along the south-eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, forming plant communities with great ecological value, unique in Europe. As it is an endangered species that makes up plant communities with great palaeoecological significance, the development of species distribution models is of major interest under different climatic scenarios, past, present and future, based on the fact that the climate could play a relevant role in the distribution of this species, as well as in the conformation of the communities in which it is integrated. Palaeoecological models were generated for the Maximum Interglacial, Last Maximum Glacial and Middle Holocene periods. The results obtained showed that the widest distribution of this species, and the maximum suitability of its habitat, occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the temperatures of the peninsular southeast were not as contrasting as those of the rest of the European continent and were favored by higher rainfall. Under these conditions, large territories could act as shelters during the glacial period, a hypothesis reflected in the model’s results for this period, which exhibit a further expansion of M. europaea’s ecological niche. The future projection of models in around 2070, for four Representative Concentration Pathways according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showed that the most favorable areas for this species would be Campo de Dalías (southern portion of Almería province) as it presents the bioclimatic characteristics of greater adjustment to M. europaea’s ecological niche model. Currently, some of the largest specimens of the species survive in the agricultural landscapes in the southern Spain. These areas are almost totally destroyed and heavily altered by intensive agriculture greenhouses, also causing a severe fragmentation of the habitat, which implies a prospective extinction scenario in the near future.

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Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

James S. Clark ◽

Robert Andrus ◽

Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽

Yves Bergeron ◽

Michal Bogdziewicz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Climate Condition ◽

Distribution Models ◽

The West ◽

Climate Effects ◽

Continental Scale ◽

Demographic Rates ◽

Species Abundances ◽

Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

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Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-91058-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

A. Laspiur ◽

J. C. Santos ◽

S. M. Medina ◽

J. E. Pizarro ◽

E. A. Sanabria ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Activity Patterns ◽

Geographic Range ◽

Behavioral Thermoregulation ◽

Rapid Loss ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Lizard Species ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change

AbstractGiven the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species’ avoidance of extinction.

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The effects of climate change on Australia’s only endemic Pokémon: Measuring bias in species distribution models

Methods in Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.1111/2041-210x.13591 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dan L. Warren ◽

Alex Dornburg ◽

Katerina Zapfe ◽

Teresa L. Iglesias

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Measuring Bias

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Vegetation ecology with anthropic drivers and consequences

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133321999371 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 030913332199937

Author(s):

George P Malanson ◽

Michelle L Talal ◽

Elizabeth R Pansing ◽

Scott B Franklin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Plant Communities ◽

Fire Ecology ◽

Progress Report ◽

Processes Of Change ◽

Community Classification ◽

The Status ◽

Plant Community Classification ◽

Anthropogenic Drivers

Current research on vegetation makes a difference in people’s lives. Plant community classification is a backbone of land management, plant communities are changing in response to anthropogenic drivers, and the processes of change have impacts on ecosystem services. In the following progress report, we summarize the status of classification and recent research on vegetation responses to pollution, especially nitrogen deposition, invasive species, climate change, and land use and direct exploitation. Two areas with human feedbacks are underscored: fire ecology and urban ecology. Prominent questions at the current research frontier are highlighted with attention to new perspectives.

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