scholarly journals Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries

COVID ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-136
Author(s):  
Reinhard Schlickeiser ◽  
Martin Kröger
Keyword(s):  
Past Experience ◽  
German Hospital ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Limiting Value ◽  
Triage Decisions ◽  
Hospital Capacities

Based on hospital capacities, facts from past experience with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus and the number of dark infections during the second wave (DII=2D2), a reasonable limiting value of 140/D2 for the 7-day incidence per 100,000 persons (MSDIHT) and a second wave herd immunization threshold fraction value of 0.26 in Germany were calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value, the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. On the basis of the SIRV epidemics model, the classical threshold values for herd immunization were calculated for 18 countries. For these countries, the dates regarding when herd immunization against the second COVID-19 wave will be reached were estimated.

scholarly journals Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Kröger ◽  
Reinhard Schlickeiser
Keyword(s):  
Past Experience ◽  
Dramatic Reduction ◽  
German Hospital ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Limiting Value ◽  
Triage Decisions ◽  
Hospital Capacities

Based on the hospital capacities, facts from the past experience with the Covid-19 virus and the dark number of infections D=10D_{10} a reasonable limiting value of 170/D_{10} for the monitored 7-day incidence per 100000 persons value (MSDIHT) in Germany is calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. A significant improvement to an almost complete testing of the population would lead to dramatic reduction of the current dark numer value to D_{10}=0.1 so that ten times higher MSDIHT values of 1700 are acceptable. Such a high limiting value would spare Germany from its currently imposed strict lockdown. The costs for such extensive and complete testing campaigns are highly justified as they are orders of magnitudes below the estimated economical costs of more than 3.6 billion Euros for each lockdown day.

scholarly journals Catastrophic COVID-19 Second Wave in Aligarh: Lessons learnt

2021 ◽  
pp. 140-143
Author(s):  
Syed Ziaur Rahman ◽  
Saif Khan ◽  
- Shujauddin
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Past Experience ◽  
The State ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Past ◽  
Lessons Learnt ◽  
Health Care Infrastructure ◽  
Second Wave

The second wave of COVID-19 in India showed its devastated effect mainly in April-May 2021 and crumbled the whole health care infrastructure. Demand for medical oxygen was higher during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the first spell. Three states viz Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi were more severely affected. Aligarh, a small district of around 1.8 million population lies in the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP). The district is famous as ‘Oxford of the East’ due to large number of intellectuals and teachers living and working at Aligarh Muslim University, was obviously not left unsaved in this second wave. The present paper discussed the catastrophic effect of COVID-19 second wave in Aligarh, the possible reasons behind it, preparation for the anticipated third wave and lessons learnt from the past experience. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.20(5) 2021 p.140-143

scholarly journals The Role of Primary Care in a Pandemic: Reflections During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 215013272096287
Author(s):  
Joanne Kearon ◽  
Cathy Risdon
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Primary Care Physicians ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Surge Capacity ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
Effective Implementation ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Specific Barriers

As COVID-19 cases began to rise in Ontario, Canada, in March 2020, increasing surge capacity in hospitals and intensive care units became a large focus of preparations. As part of these preparations, primary care physicians were ready to be redeployed to the hospitals. However, due to the effective implementation of community-wide public health measures, the hospital system was not overwhelmed. As Ontario prepares now for a potential second wave of COVID-19, primary care physicians have an opportunity to consider the full breadth and depth of scope for primary care during a pandemic. From planning to surveillance to vaccination, primary care physicians are positioned to play a unique and vital role in a pandemic. Nevertheless, there are specific barriers that will need to be overcome.

Above and beyond the content: Feelings influence mental simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellen Mrkva ◽  
Luca Cian ◽  
Leaf Van Boven
Keyword(s):  
Mental Representation ◽  
Mental Simulation ◽  
Past Experience ◽  
Prediction Errors

Abstract Gilead et al. present a rich account of abstraction. Though the account describes several elements which influence mental representation, it is worth also delineating how feelings, such as fluency and emotion, influence mental simulation. Additionally, though past experience can sometimes make simulations more accurate and worthwhile (as Gilead et al. suggest), many systematic prediction errors persist despite substantial experience.

Statistics and parallaxes

1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 7-29
Author(s):  
T. E. Lutz
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Review Paper ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Past Experience ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Trigonometric Parallaxes ◽  
Systematic And Random Errors

This review paper deals with the use of statistical methods to evaluate systematic and random errors associated with trigonometric parallaxes. First, systematic errors which arise when using trigonometric parallaxes to calibrate luminosity systems are discussed. Next, determination of the external errors of parallax measurement are reviewed. Observatory corrections are discussed. Schilt’s point, that as the causes of these systematic differences between observatories are not known the computed corrections can not be applied appropriately, is emphasized. However, modern parallax work is sufficiently accurate that it is necessary to determine observatory corrections if full use is to be made of the potential precision of the data. To this end, it is suggested that a prior experimental design is required. Past experience has shown that accidental overlap of observing programs will not suffice to determine observatory corrections which are meaningful.

Life Beyond 1MeV

1980 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 30-33
Author(s):  
K.H. Westmacott
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Past Experience ◽  
The Other ◽  
Good Case ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The U.S

Life beyond 1MeV – like life after 40 – is not too different unless one takes advantage of past experience and is receptive to new opportunities. At first glance, the returns on performing electron microscopy at voltages greater than 1MeV diminish rather rapidly as the curves which describe the well-known advantages of HVEM often tend towards saturation. However, in a country with a significant HVEM capability, a good case can be made for investing in instruments with a range of maximum accelerating voltages. In this regard, the 1.5MeV KRATOS HVEM being installed in Berkeley will complement the other 650KeV, 1MeV, and 1.2MeV instruments currently operating in the U.S. One other consideration suggests that 1.5MeV is an optimum voltage machine – Its additional advantages may be purchased for not much more than a 1MeV instrument. On the other hand, the 3MeV HVEM's which seem to be operated at 2MeV maximum, are much more expensive.

Hospital System Takes on MRSA

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (19) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
SHARON WORCESTER
Keyword(s):  
Hospital System

Modeling Within-Person Variance in Reaction Time Data of Older Adults

GeroPsych ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 169-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Rast ◽  
Daniel Zimprich
Keyword(s):  
Reaction Time ◽  
Cognitive Aging ◽  
Reaction Times ◽  
Reaction Time Task ◽  
Reaction Time Data ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Time Task ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Second Wave

In order to model within-person (WP) variance in a reaction time task, we applied a mixed location scale model using 335 participants from the second wave of the Zurich Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging. The age of the respondents and the performance in another reaction time task were used to explain individual differences in the WP variance. To account for larger variances due to slower reaction times, we also used the average of the predicted individual reaction time (RT) as a predictor for the WP variability. Here, the WP variability was a function of the mean. At the same time, older participants were more variable and those with better performance in another RT task were more consistent in their responses.

Y2K: Conspiracies, Trust and Past Experience

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Charves ◽  
Amy Clemens
Keyword(s):  
Past Experience
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document