scholarly journals Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Liu ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Yijia Cao ◽  
Zilong Zeng ◽  
Denis Sidorov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Coupled Systems ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
Operation Status ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The reliability analysis method and risk assessment model for the traditional single network no longer meet the requirements of the risk analysis of coupled systems. This paper establishes a risk assessment system of electric-gas integrated energy system (EGIES) considering the risk security of components. According to the mathematical model of each component, the EGIES steady state analysis model considering the operation constraints is established to analyze the operation status of each component. Then the EGIES component accident set is established to simulate the accident consequences caused by the failure of each component to EGIES. Furthermore, EGIES risk assessment system is constructed to identify the vulnerability of EGIES components. Finally, the risk assessment of IEEE14-NG15 system is carried out. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Flood Risk Evaluation Based on Emergy Theory and Cloud Model in Anyang Region, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 420
Author(s):  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yuhai Cui ◽  
Yuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergy Theory

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

Research on Risk Assessment Method and System Development of Small Ammonia Refrigeration Units

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Weihua Wang ◽  
Weike Jing ◽  
Jin Shi ◽  
Fakun Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
System Development ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Abstract In recent years, ammonia leakage accidents occur frequently, which causes a great concern in China. Based on traditional risk analysis methods and the equipment characteristics, a risk evaluation method for small ammonia refrigeration units is proposed. The method includes a risk assessment model based on area division, a failure probability assessment method based on expert scoring system, a failure consequence assessment method based on regional population density and consequence mitigation measures, and a HAZOP risk correction method. Based on the proposed method, a risk assessment system of small ammonia refrigeration units is developed. This risk assessment method and system will provide a scientific basis to carry out the cold storage management in China.

USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA

2008 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 627-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHENPING HU ◽  
XUDONG LI ◽  
QUANGEN FANG ◽  
ZAILI YANG
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Point Estimation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Traffic System ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Ship Operation

Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.

scholarly journals Multi-Scenario Physical Energy Storage Planning of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Dynamic Characteristics of Heating Network and Demand Response

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Deng ◽  
Yixin Huang ◽  
Yuge Chen ◽  
Changming Chen ◽  
Li Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Dynamic Characteristics ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems ◽  
Equipment Construction ◽  
Physical Energy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
Node Network

The configuration of energy storage in the integrated energy system (IES) can effectively improve the consumption rate of renewable energy and the flexibility of system operation. Due to the high cost and long cycle of the physical energy storage construction, the configuration of energy storage is limited. The dynamic characteristics of the heating network and the demand-side response (DR) can realize the space-time transfer of energy. Although there is no actual energy storage equipment construction, it plays a similar role to physical energy storage and can be considered as virtual energy storage in IES planning. In this paper, a multi-scenario physical energy storage planning model of IES considering the dynamic characteristics of the heating network and DR is proposed. To make full use of the energy storage potential of the proposed model, the virtual energy storage features of the dynamic heating characteristics of the heating network and DR are analyzed at first. Next, aiming at the uncertainty of wind turbine (WT) and photovoltaic (PV) output, the scenario analysis method is used to describe the wind and photovoltaic power output with different probabilities. Finally, an electrothermal IES with an IEEE 33-node network and a 26-node heating network serves as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The case study shows that the proposed model effectively reduces the physical energy storage configuration and achieves the economic trade-off between the investment cost and the operation cost.

scholarly journals A birdstrike risk assessment model and its application at Ordos Airport, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Hu ◽  
Pu Xing ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Gang Feng ◽  
Guisheng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
New Model ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Danger Level

AbstractBirdstrikes are an important threat to aviation safety. A standardized, scientific process for assessing birdstrike risk could prevent accidents, thereby improving the flight safety and reducing economic losses. However, China currently lacks a unified birdstrike risk assessment system. Here, we propose and validate a new model for assessing birdstrike risk in order to fill that need. The model consists of two elements. First, empirical data are collected on the occurrence of birds at the airport and in a surrounding 8 km buffer. Second, each species is evaluated with a risk assessment matrix that takes into account the number of birds, weight, flight altitude, a tendency to cluster, and range of activity. These five factors allow each species to be divided into one of three risk levels: high danger (level 3), moderate danger (level 2) and low danger (level 1). We propose corresponding birdstrike prevention measures for each level. We apply this method to the civil aviation airport in Ordos, China. We found that 20 of the 118 species of birds in and around the airport were high danger birds (level 3). To validate this process, we compared these species with records of birdstrike accidents in a database maintained by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) for 2007–2016. We found that 42% of the species we identified as high risk had been involved in at least one birdstrike accident, and that the remaining 58% belonged to families that appeared in the database. The high degree of overlap gives us high confidence in the practicality of our risk assessment model, which is based on the risk management concept of ISO 31000. Critically, this new model and method for predicting bird strike risk can be replicated at other airports around the world, even where no extensive records have been kept of past birdstrikes.

Risk Assessment Model to Natural Disaster in County Unit Based on Information Diffusion Technology

2011 ◽  
Vol 225-226 ◽  
pp. 839-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Hao ◽  
Xiao Yu Zhang ◽  
Zhi Liang Shu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
County Unit

Accurate assessment to disaster risk is one of the keys to reducing disaster losses. However, due to the fact that the disaster situation data series in county unit are always relatively short, available data are often not sufficient for disaster risk analysis. In this paper, a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory was applied to create a new disaster risk analysis model (CURAM), and the risk of disaster can be evaluated on higher spatial resolution of county unit. Visual Basic and Map Objects were used to establish CURAM applying object oriented technique and component technique. CURAM provided risk evaluate function to natural disaster in county unit, and thematic map making and output, etc. The risk assessment results calculated by CURAM indicated that information diffusion technology was highly capable of extracting useful information and therefore improved system recognition accuracy.

scholarly journals Optimal Planning of Integrated Energy Systems Based on Coupled CCHP

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Dong ◽  
Chao Quan ◽  
Tong Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Power Lines ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
Combined Cooling

With the widespread attention on clean energy use and energy efficiency, the integrated energy system (IES) has received considerable research and development. This paper proposed an electricity-gas IES optimization planning model based on a coupled combined cooling heating and power system (CCHP). The planning and operation of power lines and gas pipelines are considered. Regarding CCHP as the coupled hub of an electricity-gas system, the proposed model minimizes total cost in IES, with multistage planning and multi-scene analyzing. Renewable energy generation is also considered, including wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation. The numerical results reveal the replacing and adding schemes of power lines and gas pipelines, the optimal location and capacity of CCHP. In comparison with conventional separation production (SP), the optimization model which regards CCHP as the coupled hub attains better economy. At the same time, the influence of electricity price and natural gas price on the quantities of purchasing electricity and purchasing gas in the CCHP system is analyzed. According to the simulation result, a benchmark gas price is proposed, which shows whether the CCHP system chooses power generation. The model results and discussion demonstrate the validity of the model.

scholarly journals Research on Battery Energy Storage as Backup Power in the Operation Optimization of a Regional Integrated Energy System

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfeng Li ◽  
Dongxiao Niu ◽  
Ming Wu ◽  
Yongli Wang ◽  
Fang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Simulation Optimization ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Power Source ◽  
Battery Energy Storage ◽  
Operation Optimization ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
Battery Energy

Recently, integrated energy systems have become a new type of energy supply model. It is clear that integrated energy systems can improve energy efficiency and reduce costs. However, the use of a battery energy storage system (BESS) as a backup power source will affect the operating costs of a regional integrated energy system (RIES) in different situations. In this paper, a regional integrated energy system including wind turbines, photovoltaics, gas turbines and battery energy storage was introduced. In order to obtain the minimum operation cost, an operation optimization model was built. The schedule plans of each unit were optimized by a moth flame optimization (MFO) algorithm. Finally, three different scenarios were proposed for the simulation optimization. The simulation optimization results show that when the BESS is used as a backup power source, the operating cost of the system and the resulting pollutant emissions are less than the diesel generator (DG) set. Therefore, it is worthwhile to use BESS instead of DG as the backup power source in RIES.

Research on Intrusion Detection Method Based on Neural Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 403-408 ◽  
pp. 1483-1486
Author(s):  
Chi Xu ◽  
Wen Fang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Network Security ◽  
Security Analysis ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Security Risk Assessment ◽  
Meaningful Definition

The research of this dissertation focuses on the quantitative methodologies of the network security assessment. So the dissertation gives the term “Model-based network security risk assessment” a more meaningful definition. The methodology called a model-based will use one network security analysis model to design the scenarios of threatens according to the Patterns behaviors of vulnerabilities and threatens in the network. And then the risk assessment will be done under those scenarios. Following this new definition. The dissertation Proposes a Component-centric Access Graph Based Network Security Risk Assessment Model (Oc-AGNSRAM).

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