scholarly journals The Role of Electrofuels under Uncertainties for the Belgian Energy Transition

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 4027
Author(s):  
Xavier Rixhon ◽  
Gauthier Limpens ◽  
Diederik Coppitters ◽  
Hervé Jeanmart ◽  
Francesco Contino
Keyword(s):  
Electric Energy ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
The Future ◽  
Gas Efficiency

Wind and solar energies present a time and space disparity that generally leads to a mismatch between the demand and the supply. To harvest their maximum potentials, one of the main challenges is the storage and transport of these energies. This challenge can be tackled by electrofuels, such as hydrogen, methane, and methanol. They offer three main advantages: compatibility with existing distribution networks or technologies of conversion, economical storage solution for high capacity, and ability to couple sectors (i.e., electricity to transport, to heat, or to industry). However, the level of contribution of electric-energy carriers is unknown. To assess their role in the future, we used whole-energy system modelling (EnergyScope Typical Days) to study the case of Belgium in 2050. This model is multi-energy and multi-sector. It optimises the design of the overall system to minimise its costs and emissions. Such a model relies on many parameters (e.g., price of natural gas, efficiency of heat pump) to represent as closely as possible the future energy system. However, these parameters can be highly uncertain, especially for long-term planning. Consequently, this work uses the polynomial chaos expansion method to integrate a global sensitivity analysis in order to highlight the influence of the parameters on the total cost of the system. The outcome of this analysis points out that, compared to the deterministic cost-optimum situation, the system cost, accounting for uncertainties, becomes higher (+17%) and twice more uncertain at carbon neutrality and that electrofuels are a major contribution to the uncertainty (up to 53% in the variation of the costs) due to their importance in the energy system and their high uncertainties, their higher price, and uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Potential Of Simulating Energy Systems: The Multi Energy Systems Simulator Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Bottecchia ◽  
Pietro Lubello ◽  
Pietro Zambelli ◽  
Carlo Carcasci ◽  
Lukas Kranzl
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Energy System ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Energy System Model ◽  
Urban Level

Energy system modelling is an essential practice to assist a set of heterogeneous stakeholders in the process of defining an effective and efficient energy transition. From the analysis of a set of open source energy system models, it has emerged that most models employ an approach directed at finding the optimal solution for a given set of constraints. On the contrary, a simulation model is a representation of a system that is used to reproduce and understand its behaviour under given conditions, without seeking an optimal solution. Given the lack of simulation models that are also fully open source, in this paper a new open source energy system model is presented. The developed tool, called Multi Energy Systems Simulator (MESS), is a modular, multi-node model that allows to investigate non optimal solutions by simulating the energy system. The model has been built having in mind urban level analyses. However, each node can represent larger regions allowing wider spatial scales to be be represented as well. MESS is capable of performing analysis on systems composed by multiple energy carriers (e.g. electricity, heat, fuels). In this work, the tool’s features will be presented by a comparison between MESS itself and an optimization model, in order to analyze and highlight the differences between the two approaches, the potentialities of a simulation tool and possible areas for further development.

scholarly journals Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Zhang ◽  
Wenying Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Transition Costs ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Removal Technologies

AbstractA profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45–62% electrification rate, 47–78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2–7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5–2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64–1,649 MtCO2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.

Smart Grid: The Electric Energy System of the Future [Scanning the Issue]

2011 ◽  
Vol 99 (6) ◽  
pp. 917-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Gharavi ◽  
Reza Ghafurian
Keyword(s):  
Smart Grid ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals The Potential of Simulating Energy Systems: The Multi Energy Systems Simulator Model

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5724
Author(s):  
Luigi Bottecchia ◽  
Pietro Lubello ◽  
Pietro Zambelli ◽  
Carlo Carcasci ◽  
Lukas Kranzl
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Energy System Model ◽  
Urban Energy ◽  
Realistic Description

Energy system modelling is an essential practice to assist a set of heterogeneous stakeholders in the process of defining an effective and efficient energy transition. From the analysis of a set of open-source energy system models, it emerged that most models employ an approach directed at finding the optimal solution for a given set of constraints. On the contrary, a simulation model is a representation of a system used to reproduce and understand its behaviour under given conditions without seeking an optimal solution. In this paper, a new open-source energy system model is presented. Multi Energy Systems Simulator (MESS) is a modular, multi-energy carrier, multi-node model that allows the investigation of non optimal solutions by simulating an energy system. The model was built for urban level analyses. However, each node can represent larger regions allowing wider spatial scales to be represented as well. In this work, the tool’s features are presented through a comparison between MESS and Calliope, a state of the art optimization model, to analyse and highlight the differences between the two approaches, the potentialities of a simulation tool and possible areas for further development. The two models produced coherent results, showing differences that were tracked down to the different approaches. Based on the comparison conducted, general conclusions were drawn on the potential of simulating energy systems in terms of a more realistic description of smaller energy systems, lower computational times and increased opportunity for participatory processes in planning urban energy systems.

scholarly journals The U.S. Energy System and the Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel From Clean Electricity

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Male ◽  
Michael C. W. Kintner-Meyer ◽  
Robert S. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Aviation Fuel ◽  
Commercial Aviation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The U.S

Jet fuel is relatively small in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions (10% of U.S. transportation sector in 2021, expected to increase to 14% by 2050). Still airlines have ambitious goals to reduce their greenhouse footprints from carbon-neutral growth beginning this year to reducing greenhouse gas emission for international flights by 50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. The challenge is heightened by the longevity of the current fleet (30–50 years) and by the difficulty in electrifying the future fleet because only 5% of the commercial aviation greenhouse gas footprint is from regional flights that might, conceivably be electrified using foreseeable technology. Therefore, large amounts of sustainable aviation fuel will be needed to reach the aggressive targets set by airlines. Only 3 million gallons (11.4 ML) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) (with a heat of combustion totaling about 400 TJ = 0.0004 EJ) was produced in the U.S. in 2019 for a 26 billion gallon per year market (3.6 EJ/year). Fischer-Tropsch and ethanol oligomerization (alcohol-to-jet) are considered for producing SAF, including the use of renewable electricity and carbon dioxide. In sequencing the energy transition, cleaning the U.S. grid is an important first step to have the largest greenhouse gas emissions reduction. While carbon dioxide and clean electricity can potentially provide the SAF in the future, an ethanol oligomerization option will require less energy.

scholarly journals ASEAN’s Energy Transition towards Cleaner Energy System: Energy Modelling Scenarios and Policy Implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2819
Author(s):  
Han Phoumin ◽  
Fukunari Kimura ◽  
Jun Arima
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Landscape ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Clean Technologies ◽  
Energy Modelling ◽  
The Future

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will embrace a new architecture—including sound policies and technologies to ensure energy access together with affordability, energy security, and energy sustainability. Given the high share of fossil fuels in ASEAN’s current energy mix (oil, coal, and natural gas comprise almost 80%), the clean use of fossil fuels through the deployment of clean technologies is indispensable for decarbonizing ASEAN’s emissions. The future energy landscape of ASEAN will rely on today’s actions, policies, and investments to change the fossil fuel-based energy system towards a cleaner energy system, but any decisions and energy policy measures to be rolled out during the energy transition need to be weighed against potentially higher energy costs, affordability issues, and energy security risks. This paper employs energy modelling scenarios to seek plausible policy options for ASEAN to achieve more emissions reductions as well as energy savings, and to assess the extent to which the composition of the energy mix will be changed under various energy policy scenarios. The results imply policy recommendations for accelerating the share of renewables, adopting clean technologies and the clean use of fossil fuels, and investing in climate-resilient energy quality infrastructure.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Efficiency of Provincial Electricity Substitution in China Based on a Three-Stage DEA Model

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6650
Author(s):  
Dongxiao Niu ◽  
Tian Gao ◽  
Zhengsen Ji ◽  
Yujing Liu ◽  
Gengqi Wu
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Dea Model ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Energy Substitution ◽  
End Use

An electricity substitution strategy that replaces fossil fuels such as coal and oil with electricity in end-use energy consumption, can effectively contribute to an energy transition and the early achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. As the benefits of electricity substitution are not synchronized across China’s regions, this paper uses a three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to measure the efficiency of electric energy substitution in 30 provinces of China in 2017. The results show that both environmental factors and random errors have significant effects on energy efficiency. After eliminating these influences, the efficiency of electrical energy substitution among regions presented the following pattern: “high in the east and low in the west”. According to the evaluation results, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions for the development of electrical energy substitution.

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