scholarly journals Resilience Assessment of Wind Farms in the Arctic with the Application of Bayesian Networks

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4439
Author(s):  
Albara M. Mustafa ◽  
Abbas Barabadi
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Black Swan

Infrastructure systems, such as wind farms, are prone to various human-induced and natural disruptions such as extreme weather conditions. There is growing concern among decision makers about the ability of wind farms to withstand and regain their performance when facing disruptions, in terms of resilience-enhanced strategies. This paper proposes a probabilistic model to calculate the resilience of wind farms facing disruptive weather conditions. In this study, the resilience of wind farms is considered to be a function of their reliability, maintainability, supportability, and organizational resilience. The relationships between these resilience variables can be structured using Bayesian network models. The use of Bayesian networks allows for analyzing different resilience scenarios. Moreover, Bayesian networks can be used to quantify resilience, which is demonstrated in this paper with a case study of a wind farm in Arctic Norway. The results of the case study show that the wind farm is highly resilient under normal operating conditions, and slightly degraded under Arctic operating conditions. Moreover, the case study introduced the calculation of wind farm resilience under Arctic black swan conditions. A black swan scenario is an unknowable unknown scenario that can affect a system with low probability and very high extreme consequences. The results of the analysis show that the resilience of the wind farm is significantly degraded when operating under Arctic black swan conditions. In addition, a backward propagation of the Bayesian network illustrates the percentage of improvement required in each resilience factor in order to attain a certain level of resilience of the wind farm under Arctic black swan conditions.

scholarly journals The Influence of Climate Parameters on Maintenance of Wind Farms—A Galician Case Study

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
José A. Orosa ◽  
Ángel M. Costa ◽  
Diego Vergara ◽  
Feliciano Fraguela
Keyword(s):  
Wind Farm ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Electrical Network ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Power Regulation ◽  
The Cost

There are different monitoring procedures in wind farms with two main objectives: (i) to improve energy production by the capability of the national electrical network and (ii) to reduce the stooped hours due to preventive and or corrective maintenance activities. In this sense, different sensors are employed to sample in real-time the working conditions of equipment, the electrical production and the weather conditions. Despite this, just the anemometer measurement can be related to the more important errors of interruption of power regulation and anemometer errors. Both errors are related to gusty winds and contribute to more than 33% of the cost of a wind farm. The present paper reports some mathematical relations between weather and maintenance but there are no extreme values of each variable that let us predict a near failure and its corresponding loss of working hours. To achieve this, statistical analysis identifies the relation between weather variables and errors and different models are obtained. What is more, due to the difficulty and economic implications involving the implementation of complex algorithms and techniques of artificial intelligence, it is still a challenge to optimize this process. Finally, the obtained results show a particular case study that can be extrapolated to other wind farms after different case studies to adjust the model to different weather regions, and serve as a useful tool for weather maintenance.

scholarly journals An overall performance index for wind farms: a case study in Norway Arctic region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albara M. Mustafa ◽  
Abbas Barabadi ◽  
Tore Markeset ◽  
Masoud Naseri
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Design Quality ◽  
Sustainability Performance ◽  
Overall Performance

AbstractWind farms (WFs) experience various challenges that affect their performance. Mostly, designers focus on the technical side of WFs performance, mainly increasing the power production of WFs, through improving their manufacturing and design quality, wind turbines capacity, their availability, reliability, maintainability, and supportability. On the other hand, WFs induce impacts on their surroundings, these impacts can be classified as environmental, social, and economic, and can be described as the sustainability performance of WFs. A comprehensive tool that combines both sides of performance, i.e. the technical and the sustainability performance, is useful to indicate the overall performance of WFs. An overall performance index (OPI) can help operators and stakeholders rate the performance of WFs, more comprehensively and locate the weaknesses in their performance. The performance model for WFs, proposed in this study, arranges a set of technical and sustainability performance indicators in a hierarchical structure. Due to lack of historical data in certain regions where WFs are located, such as the Arctic, expert judgement technique is used to determine the relative weight of each performance indicator. In addition, scoring criteria are predefined qualitatively for each performance indicator. The weighted sum method makes use of the relative weights and the predefined scoring criteria to calculate the OPI of a specific WF. The application of the tool is illustrated by a case study of a WF located in the Norwegian Arctic. Moreover, the Arctic WF is compared to another WF located outside the Arctic to illustrate the effects of Arctic operating conditions on the OPI.

Evaluating Community Engagement and Benefit-Sharing Practices in Australian Wind Farm Development

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Lansbury Hall ◽  
Jarra Hicks ◽  
Taryn Lane ◽  
Emily Wood
Keyword(s):  
Community Engagement ◽  
Community Involvement ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Benefit Sharing ◽  
Delphi Panel ◽  
Government Organizations

The wind industry is positioned to contribute significantly to a clean energy future, yet the level of community opposition has at times led to unviable projects. Social acceptance is crucial and can be improved in part through better practice community engagement and benefit-sharing. This case study provides a “snapshot” of current community engagement and benefit-sharing practices for Australian wind farms, with a particular emphasis on practices found to be enhancing positive social outcomes in communities. Five methods were used to gather views on effective engagement and benefit-sharing: a literature review, interviews and a survey of the wind industry, a Delphi panel, and a review of community engagement plans. The overarching finding was that each community engagement and benefit-sharing initiative should be tailored to a community’s context, needs and expectations as informed by community involvement. This requires moving away from a “one size fits all” approach. This case study is relevant to wind developers, energy regulators, local communities and renewable energy-focused non-government organizations. It is applicable beyond Australia to all contexts where wind farm development has encountered conflicted societal acceptance responses.

scholarly journals Performance Enhancement of Proposed Namaacha Wind Farm by Minimising Losses Due to the Wake Effect: A Mozambican Case Study

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4291
Author(s):  
Paxis Marques João Roque ◽  
Shyama Pada Chowdhury ◽  
Zhongjie Huan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Wake Effect ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Wind Potential

District of Namaacha in Maputo Province of Mozambique presents a high wind potential, with an average wind speed of around 7.5 m/s and huge open fields that are favourable to the installation of wind farms. However, in order to make better use of the wind potential, it is necessary to evaluate the operating conditions of the turbines and guide the independent power producers (IPPs) on how to efficiently use wind power. The investigation of the wind farm operating conditions is justified by the fact that the implementation of wind power systems is quite expensive, and therefore, it is imperative to find alternatives to reduce power losses and improve energy production. Taking into account the power needs in Mozambique, this project applied hybrid optimisation of multiple energy resources (HOMER) to size the capacity of the wind farm and the number of turbines that guarantee an adequate supply of power. Moreover, considering the topographic conditions of the site and the operational parameters of the turbines, the system advisor model (SAM) was applied to evaluate the performance of the Vestas V82-1.65 horizontal axis turbines and the system’s power output as a result of the wake effect. For any wind farm, it is evident that wind turbines’ wake effects significantly reduce the performance of wind farms. The paper seeks to design and examine the proper layout for practical placements of wind generators. Firstly, a survey on the Namaacha’s electricity demand was carried out in order to obtain the district’s daily load profile required to size the wind farm’s capacity. Secondly, with the previous knowledge that the operation of wind farms is affected by wake losses, different wake effect models applied by SAM were examined and the Eddy–Viscosity model was selected to perform the analysis. Three distinct layouts result from SAM optimisation, and the best one is recommended for wind turbines installation for maximising wind to energy generation. Although it is understood that the wake effect occurs on any wind farm, it is observed that wake losses can be minimised through the proper design of the wind generators’ placement layout. Therefore, any wind farm project should, from its layout, examine the optimal wind farm arrangement, which will depend on the wind speed, wind direction, turbine hub height, and other topographical characteristics of the area. In that context, considering the topographic and climate features of Mozambique, the study brings novelty in the way wind farms should be placed in the district and wake losses minimised. The study is based on a real assumption that the project can be implemented in the district, and thus, considering the wind farm’s capacity, the district’s energy needs could be met. The optimal transversal and longitudinal distances between turbines recommended are 8Do and 10Do, respectively, arranged according to layout 1, with wake losses of about 1.7%, land utilisation of about 6.46 Km2, and power output estimated at 71.844 GWh per year.

scholarly journals AIS-BN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks

2000 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 155-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Cheng ◽  
M. J. Druzdzel
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Importance Sampling ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sampling Algorithm ◽  
Importance Function ◽  
Sampling Algorithms ◽  
Bayesian Network Models

Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung & Chang, 1989; Shachter & Peot, 1989) and self-importance sampling (Shachter & Peot, 1989). We used in our tests three large real Bayesian network models available to the scientific community: the CPCS network (Pradhan et al., 1994), the PathFinder network (Heckerman, Horvitz, & Nathwani, 1990), and the ANDES network (Conati, Gertner, VanLehn, & Druzdzel, 1997), with evidence as unlikely as 10^-41. While the AIS-BN algorithm always performed better than the other two algorithms, in the majority of the test cases it achieved orders of magnitude improvement in precision of the results. Improvement in speed given a desired precision is even more dramatic, although we are unable to report numerical results here, as the other algorithms almost never achieved the precision reached even by the first few iterations of the AIS-BN algorithm.

An Investigation into the Motion Behaviour of a Wind Farm Mothership

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanca Peña ◽  
Erik P. ter Brake ◽  
Kyriakos Moschonas
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Financial Benefit ◽  
Offshore Wind Farms ◽  
Motion Characteristics ◽  
Vessel Motion ◽  
Motion Behavior

A number of UK Round Three offshore wind farms are located relatively far from the coast making crew transfer to the sites time consuming, more prone to interruption by weather conditions and increasingly costly. In order to optimize the functionality of a permanent accommodation vessel, Houlder has developed a dedicated Accommodation and Maintenance Wind Farm vessel based on an oil & gas work-over vessel that has been successfully deployed for many years. The Accommodation and Maintenance (A&M) Wind Farm vessel is designed to provide an infield base for Marine Wind Farm operation. The A&M vessel is designed for high operability when it comes to crew access and performance of maintenance and repair of wind turbine components in its workshops. Also general comfort on board is of high regard. As such, the seakeeping behavior of the unit is of great importance. In this publication, the seakeeping behavior is presented on the basis of numerical simulations using 3D diffraction software. The first design iteration is driven by achieving high maneuverability and good motion characteristics for operational up-time and personnel comfort on board the vessel. Model test data of the original work-over vessel has been used to validate and calibrate the numerical simulations. On this basis, parametric studies can be performed to fine-tune a potential new hull form. In turn, this could reduce the number of required physical model tests providing a potential financial benefit and optimized delivery schedule. The vessel motion behavior was tested against the acceptability criteria and crew comfort guidelines of motion behavior for a North Sea environment.

scholarly journals Use of Analytic Hierarchy Process for Wind Farm Installation Region Prioritization–Case Study

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rômulo Lemos Bulhões ◽  
Eudemário Souza de Santana ◽  
Alex Álisson Bandeira Santos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Electricity generation via renewable sources is emerging as a possible solution to meet the growing demand for electricity worldwide. Additionally, the need to produce clean energy, with little or no pollutants or greenhouse gas emission is paramount. Due to these factors, wind farms are noticeably increasing in number, especially in Brazil. However, the vast size of the country and the poor quality of its infrastructure are among several factors that make it difficult for effective decision-making to accelerate the growth of this segment in Brazil. With the purpose of assisting government agencies, regulatory agencies and other institutions in this area, the use of a multi-criteria selection method called the analytic hierarchy process is proposed here to assist in decision-making and to select priority regions for implementing wind farms. This work focuses on a case study of the state of Bahia, in which 27 territories were selected for an installation priority evaluation. Computational tools were used to hierarchize these chosen territories, including Matlab, for the construction of the computational algorithm. The results indicate the priority pf the regions according to the established criteria, which allows installation locations to be mapped—these could serve as a basis for regional investment.

scholarly journals Noise assessment of the small-scale wind farm

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 02011
Author(s):  
Cristian-Gabriel Alionte ◽  
Daniel-Constantin Comeaga
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Large Power ◽  
Small Power ◽  
Noise Assessment ◽  
The Impact

The importance of renewable energy and especially of eolian systems is growing. For this reason, we propose the investigation of an important pollutant - the noise, which has become so important that European Commission and European Parliament introduced Directive 2002/49/CE relating to the assessment and management of environmental noise. So far, priority has been given to very large-scale systems connected to national energy systems, wind farms whose highly variable output power could be regulated by large power systems. Nowadays, with the development of small storage capacities, it is feasible to install small power wind turbines in cities of up to 10,000 inhabitants too. As a case study, we propose a simulation for a rural locality where individual wind units could be used. This specific case study is interesting because it provides a new perspective of the impact of noise on the quality of life when the use of this type of system is implemented on a large scale. This option, of distributed and small power wind turbine, can be implemented in the future as an alternative or an adding to the common systems.

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation for Wind Forecasting – Application to Wind Farm

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang-Ming Fan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Combining Data

<p>The purpose of this study is to develop an ensemble-based data assimilation method to accurately predict wind speed in wind farm and provide it for the use of wind energy intelligent forecasting platform. As Taiwan government aimed to increase the share of renewable energy generation to 20% by 2025, among them, the uncertain wind energy output will cause electricity company has to reserve a considerable reserve capacity when dispatching power, and it is usually high cost natural gas power generation. In view of this, we will develop wind energy intelligent forecasting platform with an error of 10% within 72 hours and expect to save hundred millions of dollars of unnecessary natural gas generators investment. Once the wind energy can be predicted more accurately, the electricity company can fully utilize the robustness and economy of smart grid supply. Therefore, the mastery of the change of wind speed is one of the key factors that can reduce the minimum error of wind energy intelligent forecasting.</p><p>There are many uncertainties in the numerical meteorological models, including errors in the initial conditions or defects in the model, which may affect the accuracy of the prediction. Since the deterministic prediction cannot fully grasp the uncertainty in the prediction process, so it is difficult to obtain all possible wind field changes. The development of ensemble-based data assimilation prediction is to make up for the weakness of deterministic prediction. With the prediction of 20 wind fields as ensemble members, it is expected to include the uncertainty of prediction, quantify the uncertainty, and integrate the wind speed observations of wind farms as well to provide the optimal prediction of wind speed for the next 72 hours. The results show that the prediction error of wind speed within 72 hours is 6% under different weather conditions (excluding typhoons), which proves that the accuracy of wind speed prediction by combining data assimilation technology and ensemble approach is better.</p>

Bayesian Network: Probabilistic Reasoning, Statistical Learning, and Applications

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoichi Motomura ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Statistical Learning ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Intelligent Information Processing ◽  
Intelligent Information ◽  
Bayesian Network Models

Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that can be used for prediction and decision-making in the presence of uncertainty. For intelligent information processing, probabilistic reasoning based on Bayesian networks can be used to cope with uncertainty in real-world domains. In order to apply this, we need appropriate models and statistical learning methods to obtain models. We start by reviewing Bayesian network models, probabilistic reasoning, statistical learning, and related researches. Then, we introduce applications for intelligent information processing using Bayesian networks.

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