Asymmetric Price Transmission of Hardwood Lumber Imported by China after Imposition of the Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban in All Natural Forests

The Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban in All Natural Forests (CCLB) policy, introduced in April 2015, aims to protect all natural forests in China. It has impacted both China’s domestic timber supply and imports. We investigated price transmission in China’s hardwood lumber imports resulting from the implementation of this policy. We selected three hardwood lumber species, i.e., Sapelli (Entandrophragma), Mandshurica (Fraxinus), and Laurel (Terminalia), and used their daily prices from 30 April 2015 to 30 November 2017. Threshold co-integration and threshold error correction models are employed for this analysis. We identified a structural breakpoint on 30 November 2016, and consequently partitioned the data series into two parts for the two subperiods separated by the breakpoint. The empirical results indicated that there was asymmetric price transmission (APT) for both subperiods. Adjustment of positive price deviations to the long-term equilibrium levels was slower than that of negative price deviations. In the short term, the price of high-quality lumber evolved independently, whereas the price of lower-quality lumber tended to return to the equilibrium. The APT reflects a redistribution of welfare, benefiting the exporters more than the importers. We find that positive discrepancies in each price pair were inclined to be more persistent in the first subperiod than in the second subperiod. This could attribute to the fact that the degree of CCLB intervention in the former one was higher than in the latter one.

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TRANSMISI HARGA KOPI ARABIKA GAYO DI PROVINSI ACEH

Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia ◽

10.29244/jai.2017.5.1.39-56 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 39

Author(s):

Noratun Juliaviani ◽

Sahara Sahara ◽

Ratna Winandi

Keyword(s):

Market Price ◽

Price Transmission ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Arabica Coffee ◽

Asymmetric Price Transmission ◽

Adjustment Factors ◽

Transmission Test

ABSTRACTThe objective of this study is to analyze the price transmission of Gayo Arabica coffee from farmers to exporters. This study utilizesECM (error Correction Model) to investigate price transmission based on monthly price data in farmer and exporter level from Januari 2008 until December 2014. The result showed that price transmission test ECM-EG model showed that in short term, the price transmission is assymetric and symetric in long term.The symmetrical price transmission between farmers and exporters in the long term, showed that there was no misuse of market power, Therefore, price changes that occur at the farmer level in the long term were transmitted perfectly towards exporter. Asymmetric price transmission in the short term is commonly caused by cost adjustment factors and marketing agency behaviors in the pricing mechanism and the performance of each level / marketing agencies. Therefore, the need for setting prices of Gayo Arabica coffee, especially at the producers (farmers) level and the government's role in monitoring the price according to the quality of coffee, and inform the development of the market price (the local and the world) to the farmers.

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Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

Jurnal REP (Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan) ◽

10.31002/rep.v4i2.1753 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 110-118

Author(s):

Muhamad Muin ◽

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Empirical Study ◽

Money Supply ◽

Price Index ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Data Series ◽

Short Term ◽

Monthly Data ◽

The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

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Analysis of Trends in the FireCCI Global Long Term Burned Area Product (1982–2018)

Fire ◽

10.3390/fire4040074 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 74

Author(s):

Gonzalo Otón ◽

José Miguel C. Pereira ◽

João M. N. Silva ◽

Emilio Chuvieco

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Burned Area ◽

Data Series ◽

Short Term ◽

The Impact ◽

Term Data

We present an analysis of the spatio-temporal trends derived from long-term burned area (BA) data series. Two global BA products were included in our analysis, the FireCCI51 (2001–2019) and the FireCCILT11 (1982–2018) datasets. The former was generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m reflectance data, guided by 1 km active fires. The FireCCILT11 dataset was generated from Land Long-Term Data Record data (0.05°), which provides a consistent time series for Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer images, acquired from the NOAA satellite series. FireCCILT11 is the longest time series of a BA product currently available, making it possible to carry out temporal analysis of long-term trends. Both products were developed under the FireCCI project of the European Space Agency. The two datasets were pre-processed to correct for temporal autocorrelation. Unburnable areas were removed and the lack of the FireCCILT11 data in 1994 was examined to evaluate the impact of this gap on the BA trends. An analysis and comparison between the two BA products was performed using a contextual approach. Results of the contextual Mann-Kendall analysis identified significant trends in both datasets, with very different regional values. The long-term series presented larger clusters than the short-term ones. Africa displayed significant decreasing trends in the short-term, and increasing trends in the long-term data series, except in the east. In the long-term series, Eastern Africa, boreal regions, Central Asia and South Australia showed large BA decrease clusters, and Western and Central Africa, South America, USA and North Australia presented BA increase clusters.

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Timber supply and economic impacts associated with sustained yield unit size

The Forestry Chronicle ◽

10.5558/tfc71647-5 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 71 (5) ◽

pp. 647-656 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

K. B. Rouck ◽

J. D. Nelson

Keyword(s):

Social Economic ◽

Spatial Modelling ◽

Wildlife Habitat ◽

Unit Size ◽

Short Term ◽

Environmental Implications ◽

Timber Supply ◽

Sustained Yield ◽

Spatial Forest Planning

Partitioning the forest into sustained yield units is a complex task that involves assessing timber supply, allocation of cutting rights, and social, economic, and environmental impacts. There are numerous ways to vary the timing and intensity of harvests within individual drainages while still meeting the objectives of sustained yield. In this paper we use a spatial forest planning model to examine economic and environmental implications of varying the sustained yield unit size. Harvests for a Timber Supply Area in British Columbia are calculated using 4 sizes of sustained yield units: 1)12 small units, 2) four moderately sized units 3) two large units, and 4) one unit representing the entire forest. Relative to the 12 small units, short-term (20 year) harvest levels for the Timber Supply Area increased by 7.6%, 10%, and 10.8% for the 4, 2 and 1 unit aggregations, respectively. Medium-(21-60 years) and long-term (61-120 years) increases in harvest levels averaged approximately 75% and 40%, respectively, of those realized in the short-term. Reductions in the length of active road and delivered wood costs were also observed as sustained yield units increased in size. Small units often restrict short-term timber supply and provide continuous road access to important wildlife habitat. While larger units afford greater flexibility in meeting short-term harvests, the intensity of the harvest within individual drainages increases. However, with large units the inactive drainages can be closed for extended periods, thus limiting human access to the active drainages. Key words: timber supply, sustained yield unit size, spatial modelling, economics

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Evaluation of forest management strategies based on Triad zoning

The Forestry Chronicle ◽

10.5558/tfc2015-009 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 91 (01) ◽

pp. 40-51 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Chris Ward ◽

Thom Erdle

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Social Economic ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Short Term ◽

Timber Supply ◽

Timing Offset ◽

Intensively Managed ◽

Selling Point ◽

Forecast Time

Triad forest management was analyzed for a New Brunswick Crown License. Fifteen forest value indicators were used to describe social, economic, and environmental outcomes from forecast Triad scenarios, including 36 scenarios where reserves and intensively managed area varied in 5% increments from 10% to 35%. Some indicators were most sensitive to intensive area (e.g., silviculture cost), other to reserve area (e.g., area containing large snags), and still others to extensive area (e.g., average harvest levels). Some indicators averaged arithmetically, and could be kept constant if increases in reserves were accompanied by equal increases in intensive area. Such averaging for timber supply is often a selling point made by Triad advocates. Indeed, many different scenarios generated the same annual harvest when averaged over the 100-year forecast time horizon; however, immediate reductions in operable timber inventory resulting from reserve increases caused short-term harvest reductions, while future gains in yield from intensive area increases caused long-term harvest increases. This timing offset between losses and gains of operable volume, and its effect on harvest timing, may be impediments to Triad implementation in jurisdictions where timber supply is fully utilized. This analysis presents methods and results that may be of value to forest managers contemplating implementation of Triad zoning.

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On the importance of time scales when studying adaptive evolution

10.1101/269175 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Perrier ◽

Anne Charmantier

Keyword(s):

Time Scales ◽

Quantitative Traits ◽

Field Studies ◽

Data Series ◽

Wild Populations ◽

Short Term ◽

Trait Variation ◽

Bill Length ◽

Term Field

AbstractLong-term field studies coupled with quantitative genomics offer a powerful means to understand the genetic bases underlying quantitative traits and their evolutionary changes. However, analyzing and interpreting the time scales at which adaptive evolution occurs is challenging. First, while evolution is predictable in the short term, with strikingly rapid phenotypic changes in data series, it remains unpredictable in the long term. Second, while the temporal dynamics of some loci with large effect on phenotypic variation and fitness have been characterized, this task can be complicated in cases of highly polygenic trait architecture implicating numerous small effect size loci, or when statistical tests are sensitive to the heterogeneity of some key characteristics of the genome, like recombination rate variations. After introducing these aforementioned challenges, we discuss a recent investigation of the genomic architecture and spatio-temporal variation in great tit bill length, which was related to the recent use of bird feeders. We discuss how this case study illustrates the importance of considering different temporal scales and evolutionary mechanisms both while analyzing trait temporal trends and when searching for and interpreting the signals of putative genomic footprints of selection. More generally this commentary discusses interesting challenges for unraveling the time scale at which adaptive traits evolve and their genomic bases.Impact summaryAn important goal in evolutionary biology is to understand how individual traits evolve, leading to fascinating variations in time and space. Long-term field studies have been crucial in trying to understand the timing, extent, and ecological determinants of such trait variation in wild populations. In this context, recent genomic tools can be used to look for the genetic bases underlying such trait variation and can provide clues on the nature and timing of their evolution. However, the analysis and the interpretation of the time scales at which evolution occurs remain challenging. First, analyzing long-term data series can be tricky; short-term changes are highly predictable whereas long-term evolution is much less predictable. A second difficult task is to study the architecture of complex quantitative traits and to decipher the timing and roles of the several genomic mechanisms involved in their evolution. This commentary introduces these challenges and discusses a recent investigation of the nature and timing of ecological and genomic factors responsible for variation in great tit bill length. Overall, we raise cautionary warnings regarding several conceptual and technical features and limitations when coupling analyses of long-term and genomic data to study trait evolution in wild populations.

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The Short- and Long-Term Costs of a Severe Drought on Retail Peanut Butter Prices and Consumers

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics ◽

10.1017/aae.2021.6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 53 (2) ◽

pp. 259-279

Author(s):

Xiao Dong ◽

Gregory M. Astill

Keyword(s):

Peanut Butter ◽

Simple Calculation ◽

Food Prices ◽

Price Transmission ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Asymmetric Price Transmission ◽

Post Shock ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Peanut Production

AbstractThis article investigates the short- and long-term costs of an extreme weather event on retail food prices and consumer expenditures. We utilize the 2011 severe peanut drought as a quasi-natural experiment and find that retail peanut butter prices increased 21.3% as a result of the drought-driven shock in farm peanut production and prices. Moreover, we identify long-term costs due to positive asymmetric price transmission as retail peanut butter prices returned to pre-shock levels much more slowly and remained on average 6.2% higher for 4 years after farm peanut prices returned to pre-shock levels. For consumers, the drought increased peanut butter costs, and the persistence of higher prices in peanut butter led to long-term consumer costs. Peanut butter expenditure on average increased by 4.8% post-shock, with lower-income households increasing expenditures even more. A simple calculation estimates that higher peanut butter prices inflicted a cost of $1.08 billion during the shock, and sticky post-shock peanut butter prices imposed a cost of $628 million to U.S. consumers.

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Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Part 3C: stochastic bridging for share yields and dividends and interest rates

Annals of Actuarial Science ◽

10.1017/s1748499516000221 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 128-163 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

A. D. Wilkie ◽

Şule Şahin

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Brownian Bridge ◽

Data Series ◽

Similar Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Monthly Data ◽

The Third ◽

Brownian Bridges ◽

Retail Prices

AbstractThis is the third and last subpart of a long paper in which we consider stochastic interpolation for the Wilkie asset model, considering both Brownian bridges and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) bridges. In Part 3A, we developed certain properties for both these types of stochastic bridge, and in Part 3B we investigated retail prices and wages. In this paper, we investigate the remainder of many of our data series, relating to shares and interest rates. We conclude that, regardless of the form of the annual model, the monthly data within each year can be modelled by Brownian bridges, usually on the logarithm of the principal variable. But in no case is a simple Brownian bridge enough, and all series have their own peculiarities. Overall, however, our modelling produces simulations that are realistic in comparison with the known data. Many of our findings would apply to any similar model used for simulation over time. Our results have considerable importance for financial economics. We reconcile the conflict between the long-term mean-reverting modelling of Schiller and the short-term random walk modelling of Fama. This conclusion therefore has very wide significance.

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Zum Holzangebot nicht industrieller privater Waldeigentümer | Concerning timber supply of non-industrial private forest owners

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2008.0416 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 159 (12) ◽

pp. 416-426

Author(s):

Peter Deegen

Keyword(s):

Market Failure ◽

Credit Rationing ◽

Private Forest ◽

Private Forest Owners ◽

Short Term ◽

Timber Supply ◽

Forest Owners ◽

Forest Income

The paper presents deductive-mathematical analyses regarding short and long-term timber supply of non-industrial private forest owners using several papers of Tahvonen and Tahvonen et al. With the help of an intertemporal dynamic consumer model based on the Faustmann tradition, the effects of utility in situ, non-forest income and credit rationing are investigated: The higher the utility in situ and the non-forest income, the higher is the quantity of the long-term timber supply and the lower the quantity of short-term timber supply. The higher the timber price and the market interest rate, the lower the quantity of the long-term timber supply and the higher the quantity of short-term timber supply. Credit rationing leads to essential modifications of those results. The found results also differ strongly from analyses of the pure case of intertemporal profit maximizers. In the second part inductive-empirical studies concerning timber supply of non-industrial private forest owners are presented as well. Reference is made to two papers with review characteristics in which cases from North America and Scandinavia are analysed. In the third part the results of the two different methods are compared and the relations of these two methods are discussed. Special emphasis is given to the fact that deduction shall not equalize theory and the inductive-empirical method shall not be synonym for reality or practice. Instead inductive-empirical research is also theory. Finally it is explained that the low quantity of short-term timber supply by non-industrial private forest owners is not a result of market failure but of a more complex competition among the different usages of forests that emerged in modern societies.

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Analisis Volatilitas Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Kedelai Indonesia dengan Pasar Kedelai Dunia

Jurnal Agro Ekonomi ◽

10.21082/jae.v34n1.2016.47-66 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 34 (1) ◽

pp. 47 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ratna Anita Carolina ◽

Sri Mulatsih ◽

Lukytawati Anggraeni

Keyword(s):

Market Integration ◽

Market Price ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Price Transmission ◽

Garch Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Soybean Price ◽

Volatility Analysis ◽

The Government

English The government is necessary to maintain food price stability in order to support food security in the country. This study aims to analyze domestic (local and imported) soybean prices volatility, and analyze the market integration and the price transmission elasticity that occurs between domestic soybean market and world soybean market. Price volatility analysis using ARCH/GARCH models showed that the world soybean price is more volatile than domestic soybean price, while in domestic market, local soybean price showed more volatility than imported price. Ravallion model was used to analyze market integration and price transmission between world and domestic soybean markets. The result showed that there is no short term market integration, but there exist the long term market integration with a weak price transmission between world and domestic soybean market. Indonesia Stabilisasi harga pangan pokok, termasuk di dalamnya kedelai, merupakan salah satu hal yang perlu dijaga oleh pemerintah untuk mendukung ketahanan pangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis volatilitas harga domestik kedelai, baik lokal maupun impor, serta menganalisis integrasi pasar dan transmisi harga yang terjadi antara pasar kedelai domestik dengan pasar kedelai dunia. Analisis volatilitas harga kedelai dengan menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH menunjukkan bahwa harga kedelai dunia lebih volatil dibandingkan dengan harga kedelai domestik; sementara pada pasar kedelai domestik, harga kedelai lokal lebih volatil dibandingkan dengan harga kedelai impor. Model Ravallion digunakan untuk menganalisis integrasi pasar dan transmisi harga antara pasar kedelai dunia dengan pasar kedelai domestik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi integrasi jangka pendek, namun terjadi integrasi jangka panjang dengan proses transmisi harga yang lemah antara pasar kedelai dunia dengan pasar kedelai domestik.

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