scholarly journals Potential COVID-19 Outbreak in Fire Camp: Modeling Scenarios and Interventions

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Matthew P Thompson ◽  
Jude Bayham ◽  
Erin Belval
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transient Nature ◽  
Fire Incident ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

The global COVID-19 pandemic will pose unique challenges to the management of wildland fire in 2020. Fire camps may provide an ideal setting for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. However, intervention strategies can help minimize disease spread and reduce the risk to the firefighting community. We developed a COVID-19 epidemic model to highlight the risks posed by the disease during wildland fire incidents. Our model accounts for the transient nature of the population on a wildland fire incident, which poses unique risks to the management of communicable diseases in fire camps. We used the model to assess the impact of two types of interventions: the screening of a firefighter arriving on an incident, and social distancing measures. Our results suggest that both interventions are important to mitigate the risks posed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, screening is relatively more effective on short incidents, whereas social distancing is relatively more effective during extended campaigns. We conclude with a discussion of model limitations and potential extensions to the model.

scholarly journals An Epidemic Model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashutosh Mahajan ◽  
Ravi Solanki ◽  
Namitha Sivadas
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
High Population ◽  
High Population Density ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Cases

AbstractAfter originating from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, with a gradual spread in the last few months, COVID-19 has become a pandemic crossing 9 million confirmed positive cases and 450 thousand deaths. India is not only an overpopulated country but has a high population density as well, and at present, a high-risk nation where COVID-19 infection can go out of control. In this paper, we employ a compartmental epidemic model SIPHERD for COVID-19 and predict the total number of confirmed, active and death cases, and daily new cases. We analyze the impact of lockdown and the number of tests conducted per day on the prediction and bring out the scenarios in which the infection can be controlled faster. Our findings indicate that increasing the tests per day at a rapid pace (10k per day increase), stringent measures on social-distancing for the coming months and strict lockdown in the month of July all have a significant impact on the disease spread.

scholarly journals Targeted adaptive isolation strategy for Covid-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltan Neufeld ◽  
Hamid Khataee ◽  
Andras Czirok
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Complementary Approach ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe investigate the effects of social distancing in controlling the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic using a simple susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model. We show that an alternative or complementary approach based on targeted isolation of the vulnerable subpopulation may provide a more efficient and robust strategy at a lower economic and social cost within a shorter timeframe resulting in a collectively immune population.

scholarly journals Lockdowns to Contain COVID-19 Increase Risk and Severity of Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Jindal ◽  
Shrisha Rao
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Insecticide Treated Nets ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMany countries are implementing lockdown measures to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, putting more than a third of the world’s population under restrictions. The scale of such lockdowns is unprecedented, and while some effects of lockdowns are readily apparent, it is less clear what effects they may have on outbreaks of serious communicable diseases. We examine the impact of these lockdowns on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Using an agent-based model and simulations, we find that the risk and severity of such outbreaks is much greater under lockdown conditions, with the number of infected people doubling in some cases. This increase in number of cases varies by different mosquito-borne diseases, and is significantly higher for diseases spread by day-biting mosquitoes. We analysed various intervention strategies and found that during lockdowns, decentralised strategies such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are more effective than centralised strategies.

scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe in 2020: a quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time series design study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Felipe J Colón-González ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Steven Rushton
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
At Home

Introduction The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a considerable halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. Aim We aimed to generate empirical evidence about which social distancing measures had the most impact in reducing case counts and mortality. Methods We report a quasi-experimental (observational) study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak through 24 April 2020. Chronological data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models and in STATA using multilevel mixed-effects regression models. Results From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay-at-home orders and closure of additional non-essential businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Conclusions Our findings are that schools and some non-essential businesses operating ‘as normal’ as well as allowing mass gatherings were incompatible with suppressing disease spread. Closure of all businesses and stay at home orders are less likely to be required to keep disease incidence low. Our results help identify what were the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in this period.

Investigation of spatial configuration management on social distancing of recreational clubhouse for COVID-19 in Penang, Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Adibah Binti Abdul Nasir ◽  
Ahmad Sanusi Hassan ◽  
Fatemeh Khozaei ◽  
Muhammad Hafeez Bin Abdul Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Spatial Configuration ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Spatial Arrangement ◽  
Public Spaces ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

PurposeSince the appearance of COVID-19 social distancing and staying home have been recommended repeatedly by the governments for disease prevention. As the challenge continues to remain the current study seeks to examine the factors affecting social distancing through space planning and management. More specifically the current study aims to examine the appropriateness of the spatial organization and space configuration of a clubhouse with a linear plan layout in the mitigation of the spread of infections due to serious pandemic COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachFor an enhanced understanding of the impact of spatial arrangements of public spaces plan on the effective implementation of social distancing this study has used the space syntax analysis method. The MPSP clubhouse building in Penang, Malaysia was selected as the case study. The level of permeability and wayfinding were determined in the building plan and were illustrated using photoshop software to depict the interrelation between the indoor spaces and building circulation. Graphs of the depth of space were used to analyze the level of permeability and wayfinding to illustrate the possibility of social distancing in the plan.FindingsThe result of the study shows the significant role of proper plan layout design on social distancing. While clear and direct wayfinding can positively be associated with more effective social distancing, the inefficient design of user access, inappropriate locations of multiple entry and exit and indefinite directions of users' inside buildings can impose slight limitations. The average level of permeability might suggest ineffective spatial arrangement, ignoring the needs of spatial segregation. The study further found that the linear plan layouts with proper zoning and effective management strategies can be considered a proper layout to facilitate social distancing and the spread of COVID-19.Originality/valueThe current study is unique in terms of examination of the spatial configuration of linear public spaces plan layout for possible temporary adaptability to curb disease spread during the unexpected advent of a pandemic. Based on researchers' best of knowledge it is the first time that the impact of recreational space design on social distancing has been examined. The study also originally sheds light on the fact that the commonly used guideline for the social distancing of 1–2 m between 2 persons, in reality, is practically inadequate given the nature of the sports activities.

scholarly journals Homebound by COVID19: The Benefits and Consequences of Non-pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buse Eylul Oruc ◽  
Arden Baxter ◽  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
John Asplund ◽  
Nicoleta Serban
Keyword(s):  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Workplace Interactions ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Scenarios ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background. Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions).Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020.Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively.Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.

scholarly journals Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nickolas Dreher ◽  
Zachary Spiera ◽  
Fiona M. McAuley ◽  
Lindsey Kuohn ◽  
John R. Durbin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Doubling Time ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

AbstractBackgroundPolicymakers have employed various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay-at-home orders and school closures to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, these measures are not without cost, and careful analysis is critical to quantify their impact on disease spread and guide future initiatives. This study aims to measure the impact of NPIs on the effective reproductive number (Rt) and other COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. states.MethodsIn order to standardize the stage of disease spread in each state, this study analyzes the weeks immediately after each state reached 500 cases. The primary outcomes were average Rt in the week following 500 cases and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed in R to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time from 50 to 100 deaths and included several healthcare infrastructure control variables.ResultsStates that had a stay-at-home order in place at the time of their 500th case are associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without a stay-at-home order (p < 0.001) and are significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced a significantly longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.53, p = 0.002).DiscussionFew studies have analyzed the effect of statewide stay-at-home orders, school closures, and other social distancing measures in the U.S., which has faced the largest COVID-19 case burden. States with stay-at-home orders have a 93% decrease in the odds of having a positive Rt at a standardized point in disease burden. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

scholarly journals Ohio Response to COVID-19 and Its Impact on Interventional Pain Management Practices

2020 ◽  
Vol 4S;23 (8;4S) ◽  
pp. S439-S447
Author(s):  
Amol Soin
Keyword(s):  
Pain Management ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Interventional Pain Management ◽  
The Impact

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has drastically altered daily living and medical care for Ohio residents and the practice of medicine for the interventional pain management physician. As a state, Ohio tends to be demographically representative of the broader US population. Objective: Reviewing the efforts deployed by Ohio to flatten the COVID-19 infection curve and reduce the spread of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an important component of determining optimal procedures for mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Over the course of several announcements and orders during the months of March and April, new policies were put into place to prevent COVID-19 transmission, which included efforts to facilitate social distancing and ensure the health care system could manage the number of COVID-19 cases at peak infection rate. Efforts directed toward medical providers included delay of elective procedures, expansion of telehealth options, and new temporary guidance for prescribing controlled substances. Results: The Ohio COVID-19 containment approach resulted in a substantial reduction in COVID-19 cases compared with early models of disease spread, and the state has begun a phased reopening. Continued vigilance in applying social distancing and infection control measures will be a critical component of preventing or reducing the impact of a second wave of COVID-19 in Ohio. Limitations: A narrative review with paucity of literature. Key words: COVID-19, infection rates, mitigating effects, pandemic, infection control

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Patterns in Three Chinese Regions vs. South Korea, Italy and Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junyu He ◽  
Guangwei Chen ◽  
Yutong Jiang ◽  
Runjie Jin ◽  
Mingjun He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Normal Distribution Function ◽  
General Validity ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe outbreak of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) began in January 2020 in the city of Wuhan (Hubei province, China). It took about 2 months for China to get this infectious disease under control in its epicenter at Wuhan. Since February 2020, COVID-19 has been spreading around the world, becoming widespread in a number of countries. The timing and nature of government actions in response to the pandemic has varied from country to country, and their role in affecting the spread of the disease has been debated.MethodThe present study proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model (SEIR) model to perform a comparative analysis of the temporal progress of disease spread in six regions worldwide: three Chinese regions (Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang) vs. three countries (South Korea, Italy and Iran). For each region we developed detailed timelines of reported infections and outcomes, along with government- implemented measures to enforce social distancing. Simulations of the imposition of strong social distancing measures were used to evaluate the impact that these measures might have had on the duration and severity of COVID-19 outbreaks in the three countries.ResultsThe main results of this study are as follows: (a) an empirical COVID-19 growth law provides an excellent fit to the disease data in all study regions and potentially could be of more general validity; (b) significant differences exist in the spread characteristics of the disease among the three regions of China and between the three regions of China and the three countries; (c) under the control measures implemented in the Chinese regions (including the immediate quarantine of infected patients and their close contacts, and considerable restrictions on social contacts), the transmission rate of COVID-19 followed a modified normal distribution function, and it reached its peak after 1 to 2 days and then was reduced to zero 11, 11 and 18 days after a 1st-Level Response to Major Public Health Emergency was declared in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang, respectively; moreover, the epidemic control times in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang showed that the epidemic reached an “inflection point” after 9, 12 and 17 days, respectively, after a 1st-Level Response was issued; (d) an empirical COVID-19 law provided an excellent fit to the disease data in the six study regions, and the law can be potentially of more general validity; and (e) the curves of infected cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would had been significantly flattened and shrunken at a relatively earlier stage of the epidemic if similar preventive measures as in the Chinese regions had been also taken in the above three countries on February 25th, February 25th and March 8th, respectively: the simulated maximum number of infected individuals in South Korea, Italy and Iran would had been 4480 cases (March 9th, 2020), 2335 cases (March 10th) and 6969 cases (March 20th), instead of the actual (reported) numbers of 7212 cases (March 9th), 8514 cases (March 10th, 2020) and 11466 cases (March 20th), respectively; moreover, up to March 29th, the simulated reduction in the accumulated number of infected cases would be 1585 for South Korea, 93490 for Italy and 23213 for Iran, respectively, accounting for 16.41% (South Korea), 95.70% (Italy) and 60.59% (Iran) of the accumulated number of actual reported infected cases.ConclusionsThe implemented measures in China were very effective for controlling the spread of COVID-19. These measures should be taken as early as possible, including the early identification of all infection sources and eliminating transmission pathways. Subsequently, the number of infected cases can be controlled at a low level, and existing medical resources could be sufficient for maintaining higher cure rates and lower mortality rate compared to the current situations in these countries. The proposed model can account for these prevention and control measures by properly adjusting its parameters, it computes the corresponding variations in disease transmission rate during the outbreak period, and it can provide valuable information for public health decision- making purposes.

scholarly journals Glycemic control in type 2 diabetic patients during the COVID-19 virus pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 094-103
Author(s):  
Kanyakamon Kunkitikad ◽  
Veerasak Sarinnapakorn ◽  
Chaicharn Deerochanawong ◽  
Sathit Niramitmahapanya ◽  
Navaporn Napartivaumnuay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Glycemic Control ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
P Value ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Type 2 Diabetic Patients ◽  
Outdoor Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease is a pandemic disease spread worldwide and results in lifestyle changes in areas affected by COVID-19. The ongoing social distancing and lockdowns may negatively impact access to medical care and management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Accordingly, we examined the impact of the COVID-19 virus pandemic in Thailand on the glycemic control of patients with T2DM. Method: This study focused on T2DM outpatients at Rajavithi Hospital. Three hundred and fifty participants were included. Baseline characteristics, data on exercise, outdoor activities, and access to foods and blood chemistries, including hemoglobin A1C (A1C) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), were reviewed, and collected from electronic medical records before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: There was a significant increase in mean A1C (g/L) ± SD (74.8 ± 13.7 vs. 76.0 ± 15.3, p-value <0.016), the mean duration of outdoor activities (hours/day) ± SD during the COVID-19 virus pandemic was significantly decreased. (5.35 ± 4.48 vs. 4.03 ± 4.37, p-value <0.001) Conclusion: The present study showed that mean A1C was significantly increased during the COVID-19 virus pandemic. Nevertheless, a statistical difference was not observed in FPG. The impact of quarantine, social distancing, and community containment during the epidemic on lifestyles may be the essential factor in increasing A1C.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document