scholarly journals Evaluating Socioecological Wildfire Effects in Greece with a Novel Numerical Index

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Palaiologos Palaiologou ◽  
Kostas Kalabokidis ◽  
Michelle A. Day ◽  
Vasilis Kopsachilis
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Evaluation Procedure ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Fire Effect ◽  
Wildfire Effects

Large-scale wildfires have become more frequent in Greece and coupled with the country’s limited economic resources, investments in both pre-fire planning and post-fire rehabilitation for most affected areas are not feasible. From the perspective of forest and fire management agencies, the severity and importance of fire effects are evaluated based only on total area burned, while from a societal standpoint, by the number of fatalities and destroyed houses. A holistic approach to rank wildfires with an inclusive assessment of all their effects is missing. We developed a new evaluation and ranking index based on expert judgment, the study of 50 large-scale fire events in Greece and a detailed review of the literature, to develop a set of categories and criteria to assess ecological and socioeconomic effects of wildfires. The Fire Inventory and Ranking of Effects (FIRE) Index provides a comprehensive and easy-to-use semi-numeric framework that combines scores from seven fire effects categories and 56 criteria through a user-friendly web-platform. The seven categories include fire effects on landscape and vegetation, general environmental impacts, regeneration potential and vegetation recovery, casualties and fatalities, destruction and damages to infrastructure, economic losses, and firefighting and wildfire suppression. Each of the 56 criteria within these categories describes a different anticipated fire effect. The magnitude of each fire effect criterion is estimated by predefined ranked choices by one or more persons/assessors in a multi-level evaluation procedure. We apply the FIRE Index assessment to a significant 5900-ha wildfire that occurred in 2011 in northern Greece, including a sensitivity analysis of how different category weights impact the final index score. More diverse metrics to assess wildfire effects will help address the complex social and biophysical dimensions of the wildfire governance challenge and help guide pre- and post-fire management actions.

scholarly journals Flood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2221-2241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dina D'Ayala ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Yuan Yan ◽  
Helen Smith ◽  
Ashleigh Massam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Flood hazard is increasing in frequency and magnitude in major South East Asian metropolitan areas due to fast urban development and changes in climate, threatening people's property and life. Typically, flood management actions are mostly focused on large-scale defences, such as river embankments or discharge channels or tunnels. However, these are difficult to implement in town centres without affecting the value of their heritage districts and might not provide sufficient mitigation. Therefore, urban heritage buildings may become vulnerable to flood events, even when they were originally designed and built with intrinsic resilient measures, based on the local knowledge of the natural environment and its threats at the time. Their aesthetic and cultural and economic values mean that they can represent a proportionally high contribution to losses in any event. Hence it is worth investigating more localized, tailored mitigation measures. Vulnerability assessment studies are essential to inform the feasibility and development of such strategies. In this study we propose a multilevel methodology to assess the flood vulnerability and risk of residential buildings in an area of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, characterized by traditional timber housing. The multiscale flood vulnerability model is based on a wide range of parameters, covering building-specific parameters, neighbourhood conditions and catchment area conditions. The obtained vulnerability index shows the ability to reflect different exposure by different building types and their relative locations. The vulnerability model is combined with high-resolution fluvial and pluvial flood maps providing scenario events with 0.1 % annual exceedance probability (AEP). A damage function of generic applicability is developed to compute the economic losses at individual building and sample levels. The study provides evidence that results obtained for a small district can be scaled up to the city level, to inform both generic and specific protection strategies.

scholarly journals Rapidly mapping fire effects on biodiversity at a large-scale using citizen science

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey Kirchhoff ◽  
Corey Thomas Callaghan ◽  
David A. Keith ◽  
Dony Indiarto ◽  
Guy Taseski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Disturbed Areas ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Large Scale Disturbance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Citizen Science Project

The unprecedented scale of the 2019-2020 eastern Australian bushfires exemplifies the challenges that scientists and conservation biologists face monitoring the effects of biodiversity in the aftermath of large-scale environmental disturbances. After a large-scale disturbance there are conservation policy and management actions that need to be both timely and informed by data. By working with the public, often widely spread out over such disturbed areas, citizen science offers a unique opportunity to collect data on biodiversity responses at the appropriate scale. We detail a citizen science project, hosted through iNaturalist, launched shortly after the 2019-2020 bushfire season in eastern Australia. It rapidly (1) provided accurate data on fire severity, relevant to future recovery; and (2) delivered data on a wide range (mosses to mammals) of biodiversity responses at a scale that matched the geographic extent of these fires.

scholarly journals Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 239980832199870
Author(s):  
Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽  
Joost R Santos
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

PSVIII-5 Genetic parameters of thrombin as a proxy for horn fly abundance in beef cattle

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. 239-239
Author(s):  
Ashley S Ling ◽  
Taylor Krause ◽  
Amanda Warner ◽  
Jason Duggin ◽  
Bradley Heins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Beef Cattle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Genetic Basis ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Horn Fly ◽  
Improvement Programs ◽  
Highest Posterior Density

Abstract Horn flies (Haematobia irritans) are a major nuisance to cattle, especially in warm, humid regions, and are estimated to cause economic losses in excess of $1 billion annually to the U.S. beef cattle industry. Variation in horn fly tolerance has been reported within and across breeds, and heritability estimates ranging between 10 and 80% show a clear genetic basis. However, collecting fly abundance phenotypes is costly and logistically demanding, which precludes large-scale implementation. Consequently, finding correlated phenotypes and endo-phenotypes that are heritable and relatively easy to measure would facilitate implementation of horn fly tolerance genetic improvement programs. Thrombin (TH), a blood coagulation precursor, has a reported association with horn fly count variation within and across cattle breeds. In this study, the genetic basis of thrombin in beef cattle was investigated. Blood samples and horn fly count were collected on 360 cows and heifers twice during the summer of 2019 (June and August). Due to uncertainty associated with assessment of horn fly abundance and thrombin and the fact that economic losses occur only when fly abundance exceeds a certain threshold, thrombin was categorized into 4 classes (1=TH > 500 ng/ml; 2=250< TH< 500 ng/ml; 3=100< TH< 250 ng/ml; and 4=TH< 100 ng/ml). The trait was analyzed using linear (continuous) and threshold (discrete) mixed models. Both models included farm, pregnancy status, and cow age as fixed effects and additive and permanent environment random effects. The pedigree included 642 animals. Estimates of heritability were 0.24 and 0.29 using linear and threshold models, respectively. Estimates of repeatability were slightly higher using the threshold model (0.21 vs 0.19). Despite the small data size, all estimates were non-zero based on their respective highest posterior density intervals. These results indicate reasonable genetic variation for thrombin that could be harnessed for improvement of horn fly tolerance in cattle.

Bayes Nets as a method for analysing the influence of management actions in fire planning

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 909 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. D. Penman ◽  
O. Price ◽  
R. A. Bradstock
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Holistic Model ◽  
Bayes Nets ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Fire Planning ◽  
In Fire

Wildfire can result in significant economic costs with inquiries following such events often recommending an increase in management effort to reduce the risk of future losses. Currently, there are no objective frameworks in which to assess the relative merits of management actions or the synergistic way in which the various combinations may act. We examine the value of Bayes Nets as a method for assessing the risk reduction from fire management practices using a case study from a forested landscape. Specifically, we consider the relative reduction in wildfire risk from investing in prescribed burning, initial or rapid attack and suppression. The Bayes Net was developed using existing datasets, a process model and expert opinion. We compared the results of the models with the recorded fire data for an 11-year period from 1997 to 2000 with the model successfully duplicating these data. Initial attack and suppression effort had the greatest effect on the distribution of the fire sizes for a season. Bayes Nets provide a holistic model for considering the effect of multiple fire management methods on the risk of wildfires. The methods could be further advanced by including the costs of management and conducting a formal decision analysis.

Working towards sustainable urban water management: the vulnerability blind spot

2011 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 2362-2369 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Werbeloff ◽  
R. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Water Management ◽  
Sustainable Urban Water Management ◽  
Diversity Strategy

The unprecedented water scarcity in Australia coincides with the adoption of a new urban water rhetoric. The ‘Security through Diversity’ strategy has been adopted in a number of Australian cities as a new and innovative approach to urban water management. Although this strategy offers a more holistic approach to urban water management, in practice, the Security through Diversity strategy is largely being interpreted and implemented in a way that maintains the historical dependence on large scale, centralised water infrastructure and therefore perpetuates existing urban water vulnerabilities. This research explores the implementation of Security through Diversity as the new water scarcity response strategy in the cities of Perth and Melbourne. Through a qualitative study with over sixty-five urban water practitioners, the results reveal that the practitioners have absorbed the new Security through Diversity language whilst maintaining the existing problem and solution framework for urban water management. This can be explained in terms of an entrenched technological path dependency and cognitive lock-in that is preventing practitioners from more comprehensively engaging with the complexities of the Security through Diversity strategy, which is ultimately perpetuating the existing vulnerability of our cities. This paper suggests that greater engagement with the underlying purpose of the security though diversity strategy is a necessary first step to overcome the constraints of the traditional technological paradigm and more effectively reduce the continued vulnerability of Australian cities.

scholarly journals Development and evaluation of duplex TaqMan real-time PCR assay for detection and differentiation of wide-type and MGF505-2R gene-deleted African swine fever viruses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
zhenhua Guo ◽  
Kunpeng Li ◽  
Songlin Qiao ◽  
Xinxin Chen ◽  
Ruiguang Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Real Time Pcr ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Limit Of Detection ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Diagnosis Method ◽  
Pcr Method ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: African swine fever (ASF) is the most important disease to the pigs and cause serious economic losses to the countries with large-scale swine production. Vaccines are recognized as the most useful tool to prevent and control ASF virus (ASFV) infection. Currently, the MGF505 and MGF360 gene-deleted ASFVs or combined with CD2v deletion were confirmed to be the most promising vaccine candidates. Thus, it is essential to develop a diagnosis method to discriminate wide-type strain from the vaccines used.Results: In this study, we established a duplex TaqMan real-time PCR based on the B646L gene and MGF505-2R gene. The sequence alignment showed that the targeted regions of primers and probes are highly conserved in the genotype II ASFVs. The duplex real-time assay can specifically detect B646L and MGF505-2R gene single or simultaneously without cross-reaction with other porcine viruses tested. The limit of detection was 5.8 copies and 3.0 copies for the standard plasmids containing B646L and MGF505-2R genes, respectively. Clinical samples were tested in parallel by duplex real-time PCR and a commercial ASFV detection kit. The detection results of these two assays against B646L gene were well consistent.Conclusion: We successfully developed and evaluated a duplex TaqMan real-time PCR method which can effectively distinguish the wide type and MGF505 gene-deleted ASFVs. It would be a useful tool for the clinical diagnosis and control of ASF.

scholarly journals HOLISTIC PARAMETRIC RECONSTRUCTION OF BUILDING MODELS FROM POINT CLOUDS

2020 ◽  
Vol XLIII-B2-2020 ◽  
pp. 689-695
Author(s):  
Z. Li ◽  
W. Zhang ◽  
J. Shan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Point Clouds ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Optimization Strategy ◽  
Building Roof ◽  
Building Model ◽  
Building Models

Abstract. Building models are conventionally reconstructed by building roof points via planar segmentation and then using a topology graph to group the planes together. Roof edges and vertices are then mathematically represented by intersecting segmented planes. Technically, such solution is based on sequential local fitting, i.e., the entire data of one building are not simultaneously participating in determining the building model. As a consequence, the solution is lack of topological integrity and geometric rigor. Fundamentally different from this traditional approach, we propose a holistic parametric reconstruction method which means taking into consideration the entire point clouds of one building simultaneously. In our work, building models are reconstructed from predefined parametric (roof) primitives. We first use a well-designed deep neural network to segment and identify primitives in the given building point clouds. A holistic optimization strategy is then introduced to simultaneously determine the parameters of a segmented primitive. In the last step, the optimal parameters are used to generate a watertight building model in CityGML format. The airborne LiDAR dataset RoofN3D with predefined roof types is used for our test. It is shown that PointNet++ applied to the entire dataset can achieve an accuracy of 83% for primitive classification. For a subset of 910 buildings in RoofN3D, the holistic approach is then used to determine the parameters of primitives and reconstruct the buildings. The achieved overall quality of reconstruction is 0.08 meters for point-surface-distance or 0.7 times RMSE of the input LiDAR points. This study demonstrates the efficiency and capability of the proposed approach and its potential to handle large scale urban point clouds.

Urbanization and stream ecosystems: the role of flow hydraulics towards an improved understanding in addressing urban stream degradation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Desmond Ofosu Anim ◽  
Patrick Banahene
Keyword(s):  
Stream Restoration ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Ecosystem Processes ◽  
Urban Stream ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Stream Management ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Hydraulic Conditions ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Ecological Objectives

Catchment urbanization is widely recognised as a primary driver of stream degradation by increasing stormwater runoff causing major changes to key ecosystem processes. Reinstating the ‘natural’ hydrogeomorphic conditions is central in designing successful, self-sustaining restoration actions. However, addressing urban stream degradation by re-establishing the hydrogeomorphic conditions remains a challenge and comparatively limited measurable progress has been observed particularly achieving ecological objectives. This paper articulates that stream restoration goals might be better achieved when management measures take a broader approach that considers anticipated hydraulic conditions effects that liaise relationships between flow and ecology. The study argues that fluvial systems are characterised by complex and dynamic ecosystem processes primarily governed by the hydraulic conditions (e.g. velocity, depth, shear stress), thus, as the practice of addressing urban stream restoration becomes increasingly common, it is critical to explore and understand the anticipated response of the hydraulic conditions. This paper describes how hydraulic regime consideration provides further opportunity for a holistic approach to urban stream management given their capacity to account for multiple ecological and geomorphic objectives. The paper suggests that developing suitable flow-biota-ecosystem processes nexus is critical towards addressing urban stream degradation and hydraulic consideration in restoration actions provide an important step towards that. The paper discusses opportunities to evolve management actions to achieve restoration goals by highlighting how the management of the two key levers (addressing altered flow regime and morphology) to improve the hydraulic conditions can help to address the urban stream disturbance.

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