scholarly journals Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neekita Joshi ◽  
Kazi Tamaddun ◽  
Ranjan Parajuli ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Pankaj Maheshwari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Las Vegas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Mead ◽  
Las Vegas Valley ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the impact on water supply and demand as an effect of climate change and population growth in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) as a part of the Thriving Earth Exchange Program. The analyses evaluated future supply and demand scenarios utilizing a system dynamics model based on the climate and hydrological projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively) using the simulation period expanding from 1989 to 2049. The main source of water supply in LVV is the water storage in Lake Mead, which is directly related to Lake Mead elevation. In order to assess the future water demand, the elevation of Lake Mead was evaluated under several water availability scenarios. Fifty-nine out of the 97 (27 out of the 48) projections from CMIP5 (CMIP3) indicated that the future mean elevation of Lake Mead is likely to be lower than the historical mean. Demand forecasts showed that the Southern Nevada Water Authority’s conservation goal for 2035 can be significantly met under prevalent conservation practices. Findings from this study can be useful for water managers and resource planners to predict future water budget and to make effective decisions in advance to attain sustainable practices and conservation goals.

System dynamics analysis of water supply and demand in the North China Plain

Water Policy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanhuan Qin ◽  
Amy Cha-tien Sun ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Chunmiao Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
The North ◽  
The North China Plain ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
The Impact

Water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is an important metric for regional sustainable development in China. It is defined as the difference between the total water supply and demand. The North China Plain (NCP) currently faces a serious water shortage if the WRCC is not managed at a sustainable level. This study focuses on applying system dynamics (SD) methodology to evaluate different water use scenarios and their associated WRCC for the NCP. System characteristics of local water resources and demand in the NCP are captured and simulated using VENSIM® software. A SD model of the WRCC is constructed which consists of five sub-systems: agricultural irrigation, population growth, urbanization level, water recycle and industrial output. The impact on the WRCC is tested through three growth scenarios: keeping the status quo, aggressive industrial growth and modest growth combined with wastewater recycle. Based on the simulation results, the WRCC that can most likely sustain economic growth without overly stressing the water supply is the one with modest growth combined with wastewater recycle.

MODELING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR EFFECTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT ALLOCATION IN SELANGOR

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (5-5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Nadiah Mohd Firdaus Hum ◽  
Suhaimi Abdul Talib
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Weap Model ◽  
Water Savings ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
The Impact

Water in Selangor is getting scarce due to its rapid economic growth. A fast growing population and expanding urbanization in the state creates new demands for water availability. Thus, the present study analyses the effects of three different scenarios using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to evaluate the plausible future water scenarios of water availability in Selangor. The first scenario is business as usual which is later referred to as reference in this study. Second, higher population growth and the third is the application of the demand side management onto the reference and higher population growth scenario. These scenarios were then used to calculate the impact on the supply – demand gap by the year 2050. Two catchments were used namely Selangor and Langat to illustrate the water supply and demand in the state of Selangor. The study then generates information for use in managing water allocations amongst economic sectors in Selangor as the explicit accounting in the description of the water supply and demand among the urban and industry water usage is advocated. Such detailed scenario simulation and the inclusion of previously unaccounted for factors like the higher population growth and water savings management can help to create awareness of potential future problems, inform water practices and suggest management alternatives. Results show that with proper water savings measures, water deficit within Selangor will be significantly reduced.  

Ongoing restoration and management of Las Vegas Wash: an evaluation of success criteria

Water Policy ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 720-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahesh Gautam ◽  
Kumud Acharya ◽  
Seth A. Shanahan
Keyword(s):  
Las Vegas ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Lake Mead ◽  
Channel System ◽  
Las Vegas Valley ◽  
Success Criteria ◽  
Southern Nevada ◽  
Channel Degradation

The Las Vegas Wash is a dynamic channel system that drains the Las Vegas Valley (3,950 km2) into Lake Mead and the lower Colorado River, which provides drinking water to southern California, Arizona, and southern Nevada. In the last few decades the Las Vegas Wash has undergone massive changes in terms of channel degradation and bank erosion followed by recovery and restoration efforts. The evolution of the Las Vegas Wash is interlinked with urbanization, water use, and wastewater discharge. This article reviews the historical dynamics of the Las Vegas Wash in the context of restoration: evaluates the ongoing activities in the Las Vegas Wash against an established framework and success criteria; summarizes lessons learned; and discusses challenges. The ongoing activities in the Las Vegas Wash differ from other regional restoration projects in that there is a lack of an appropriate historical reference to which restoration goals should be targeted. Keys to the success of the Las Vegas Wash restoration and management program appear to be strong interagency collaboration, funding availability, effective outreach and monitoring efforts, and adaptive management strategies based on pragmatic urban values. There is a potential for realignment of existing resources for more practical ecological restoration goals.

scholarly journals What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. e0115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pilar Martinez ◽  
María Blanco ◽  
Benjamin Van Doorslaer ◽  
Fabien Ramos ◽  
Andrej Ceglar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Agricultural Markets ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Agricultural Market ◽  
Carbon Fertilization ◽  
Fertilization Effects ◽  
The Impact

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

scholarly journals A Probabilistic Approach for Characterization of Sub-Annual Socioeconomic Drought Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Relationships in a Changing Environment

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadi Heidari ◽  
Mazdak Arabi ◽  
Mahshid Ghanbari ◽  
Travis Warziniack
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Mixture Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Water Supply And Demand ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

Changes in climate, land use, and population can increase annual and interannual variability of socioeconomic droughts in water-scarce regions. This study develops a probabilistic approach to improve characterization of sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships under shifts in water supply and demand conditions. A mixture Gamma-Generalized Pareto (Gamma-GPD) model is proposed to enhance characterization of both the non-extreme and extreme socioeconomic droughts. Subsequently, the mixture model is used to determine sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships, return period, amplification factor, and drought risk. The application of the framework is demonstrated for the City of Fort Collins (Colorado, USA) water supply system. The water demand and supply time series for the 1985–2065 are estimated using the Integrated Urban water Model (IUWM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), respectively, with climate forcing from statistically downscaled CMIP5 projections. The results from the case study indicate that the mixture model leads to enhanced estimation of sub-annual socioeconomic drought frequencies, particularly for extreme events. The probabilistic approach presented in this study provides a procedure to update sub-annual socioeconomic drought IDF curves while taking into account changes in water supply and demand conditions.

Water-Stressed Pakistan

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1116-1136
Author(s):  
Amit Ranjan
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Water Supply And Demand

The widening gap between water supply and demand is the biggest threat and challenge before Pakistan. Of the available water, much is polluted. Both scarcity and pollution threaten the agriculture sector, on which the country’s economy depends.

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