A Long-Term Trend Study of Tuberculosis Incidence in China, India and United States 1992–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major infectious diseases with the largest number of morbidity and mortality. Based on the comparison of high and low burden countries of tuberculosis in China, India and the United States, the influence of age-period-cohort on the incidence of tuberculosis in three countries from 1992 to 2017 was studied based on the Global burden of Disease Study 2017. We studied the trends using Joinpoint regression in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR). The regression model showed a significant decreasing behavior in China, India and the United States between 1992 and 2017. Here, we analyzed the tuberculosis incidence trends in China, India, as well as the United States and distinguished age, period and cohort effects by using age-period-cohort (APC) model. We found that the relative risks (RRs) of tuberculosis in China and India have similar trends, but the United States was found different. The period effect showed that the incidence of the three countries as a whole declines with time. The incidence of tuberculosis had increased in most age group. The older the age, the higher the risk of TB incidence. The net age effect in China and India showed a negative trend, while the cohort effect decreased from the earlier birth cohort to the recent birth cohort. Aging may lead to a continuous increase in the incidence of tuberculosis. It is related to the aging of the population and the relative decline of the immune function in the elderly. This should be timely population intervention or vaccine measures, especially for the elderly. The net cohort effect in the United States showed an unfavorable trend, mainly due to rising smoking rates and the emergence of an economic crisis. Reducing tobacco consumption can effectively reduce the incidence.

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Evolution of the Oropharynx Cancer Epidemic in the United States: Moderation of Increasing Incidence in Younger Individuals and Shift in the Burden to Older Individuals

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.19.00370 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (18) ◽

pp. 1538-1546 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Joseph E. Tota ◽

Ana F. Best ◽

Zachary S. Zumsteg ◽

Maura L. Gillison ◽

Philip S. Rosenberg ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

White Men ◽

The United States ◽

Annual Number ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Oropharynx Cancer ◽

Rate Of Increase

PURPOSE Human papillomavirus–positive oropharynx cancer incidence has increased rapidly in cohorts of US white men born during the 1930s to 1950s. It is unknown how the trajectory of the oropharynx cancer epidemic may be changing in the United States. METHODS Using US cancer registry information, we investigated whether increases in oropharynx cancer have continued into recent birth cohorts and forecasted the future burden across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. Log-linear Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate incidence trends during 1992 to 2015 and projections through 2029. RESULTS Among white men, oropharynx cancer incidence increased rapidly in individuals born during 1939 to 1955 (5.3% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 4.8% to 5.7%), but this rate of increase significantly moderated in individuals born during 1955 to 1969 (1.7% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.4%). Should these birth-cohort trends continue, from 2016 to 2029 we forecast that incidence will increase dramatically in older white men 65 to 74 years of age (from 40.7 to 71.2 per 100,000) and 75 to 84 years of age (from 25.7 to 50.1 per 100,000), moderately in white men 55 to 64 years of age (from 40.3 to 52.0 per 100,000), and remain stable in white men 45 to 54 years of age (approximately 18 per 100,000). Accounting for population growth, we project an increase in annual number of cases in the United States from 20,124 (95% CI, 19,779 to 20,469) in 2016 to 30,629 (95% CI, 29,413 to 31,845) in 2029, primarily driven by older individuals (age ≥ 65 years; from 7,976 [95% CI, 7,782 to 8,172] to 18,072 [95% CI, 17,271 to 18,895]) and white men (from 14,453 [95% CI, 14,142 to 14,764] to 22,241 [95% CI, 21,119 to 23,364]). CONCLUSION The exponential increase in oropharynx cancer incidence in young white US men has ebbed, and modest increases are occurring/anticipated in cohorts born after 1955. Continued strong increases in incidence in cohorts born before 1955, and an approximate 50% increase in size of the US population age 65 years or older through 2029, portend a substantial shift in burden to elderly white men.

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Age-period-cohort effects in half a century of motor vehicle theft in the United States

Crime Science ◽

10.1186/s40163-020-00126-5 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Anthony Dixon ◽

Graham Farrell

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Motor Vehicle ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

The United States ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

Motor Vehicle Theft ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Vehicle Theft ◽

Period Effects

AbstractAdopting and refining O’Brien’s S-constraint approach, we estimate age-period-cohort effects for motor vehicle theft offences in the United States for over half a century from 1960. Taking the well-established late-teen peak offending age as given, we find period effects reducing theft in the 1970 s, and period, but particularly cohort effects, reducing crime from the 1990s onwards. We interpret these effects as consistent with variation in the prevailing level of crime opportunities, particularly the ease with which vehicles could be stolen. We interpret the post-1990s cohort effect as triggered by a period effect that operated differentially by age: improved vehicle security reduced juvenile offending dramatically, to the extent that cohorts experienced reduced offending across the life-course. This suggests the prevailing level of crime opportunities in juvenile years is an important determinant of rates of onset and continuance in offending in birth cohorts. We outline additional implications for research and practice.

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The incidence of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Taiwan, 1986-2005: a distinct increasing trend with birth-cohort effect

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood-2010-05-285221 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 116 (22) ◽

pp. 4430-4435 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Shang-Ju Wu ◽

Shang-Yi Huang ◽

Chien-Ting Lin ◽

Yu-Jr Lin ◽

Chee-Jen Chang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽

Period Effect ◽

Incidence Trend ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Caucasian Americans ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Birth Cohort Effect

The incidence of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in Taiwan is markedly lower than that in Western countries, but we have seen a drastically increasing trend. We explored this distinct incidence trend of CLL for Taiwanese. The epidemiologic data of CLL for Taiwanese and Caucasian Americans during 1986 to 2005 were obtained from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, respectively. The individual effects of time period and birth cohort on the incidence trends were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model. Although there was a weak period effect corresponding to the increased applications of immunophenotyping in 1991 to 1995 in Taiwan, evidences suggested that the age-adjusted incidence rate of CLL for Taiwanese was continuously increasing during the 20-year period while that for Caucasian Americans remained steady. In addition, a much stronger birth-cohort effect was identified for Taiwanese but not for Caucasian Americans. This effect corresponded to the westernization of lifestyle in Taiwan since 1960. We conclude that, in addition to the ethnic difference of incidence, there is distinct increasing incidence trend of CLL in Taiwan. The strong birth-cohort effect underlying this increasing trend indicates that lifestyles and environmental factors may play a role in the development of CLL for Taiwanese.

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Recent Trends in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anus Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 2001–2015

JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute ◽

10.1093/jnci/djz219 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 112 (8) ◽

pp. 829-838 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Ashish A Deshmukh ◽

Ryan Suk ◽

Meredith S Shiels ◽

Kalyani Sonawane ◽

Alan G Nyitray ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Cell Carcinoma ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Squamous Cell ◽

White Women ◽

Age Groups ◽

The United States ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Abstract Background Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence is rising in the United States. Study of incidence trends by stage at diagnosis, age-specific and birth cohort patterns, and trends in mortality could provide evidence for a true increase and etiological clues for the increase in incidence. Methods Using the US Cancer Statistics dataset, we examined trends in SCCA incidence (2001–2015) and mortality (2001–2016) rates. Join-point regression was used to compute annual and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Incidence patterns by 5-year age group and birth cohort were evaluated using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and age-period-cohort modeling. Results SCCA incidence increased 2.7% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1% to 3.3%), with pronounced increases in age groups 50 years and older. Distant-stage SCCA incidence tripled (AAPC = 8.6%, 95% CI = 5.4% to 12.0%, among men and AAPC = 7.5%, 95% CI = 4.8% to 10.2%, among women) and regional-stage SCCA incidence nearly doubled (AAPC = 4.7% for men and women) in both sexes; the AAPC for localized stage was 1.3% (95% CI = 0.6% to 2.0%) in men and 2.3% (95% CI = 1.8% to 2.8%) in women. Compared with adults born circa 1946, recently born black men (born circa 1986) had a nearly fivefold higher risk (IRR = 4.7, 95% CI = 2.1 to 10.2) of SCCA, and the risk doubled among white men (IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.7 to 2.2) and white women (IRR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 2.3) born after circa 1960. Anal cancer mortality rates increased 3.1% per year (95% CI = 2.6% to 3.5%) with statistically significant increases in age groups 50 years and older. SCCA incidence-based mortality increased 1.9% annually (95% CI = 0.5% to 3.4%), with a notable (4.9%, 95% CI = 2.4% to 7.3%, per year) rise in adults ages 60–69 years. Conclusion The increase in SCCA incidence, particularly advanced-stage disease, and a similar increase in mortality suggest a true increase in the occurrence of SCCA. Future research and improved prevention are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing disease burden.

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