scholarly journals A New Geo-Propagation Model of Event Evolution Chain Based on Public Opinion and Epidemic Coupling

Author(s):  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Nengcheng Chen ◽  
Wenying Du ◽  
Shuang Yao ◽  
Xiang Zheng

The online public opinion is the sum of public views, attitudes and emotions spread on major public health emergencies through the Internet, which maps out the scope of influence and the disaster situation of public health events in real space. Based on the multi-source data of COVID-19 in the context of a global pandemic, this paper analyzes the propagation rules of disasters in the coupling of the spatial dimension of geographic reality and the dimension of network public opinion, and constructs a new gravity model-complex network-based geographic propagation model of the evolution chain of typical public health events. The strength of the model is that it quantifies the extent of the impact of the epidemic area on the surrounding area and the spread of the epidemic, constructing an interaction between the geographical reality dimension and online public opinion dimension. The results show that: The heterogeneity in the direction of social media discussions before and after the “closure” of Wuhan is evident, with the center of gravity clearly shifting across the Yangtze River and the cyclical changing in public sentiment; the network model based on the evolutionary chain has a significant community structure in geographic space, divided into seven regions with a modularity of 0.793; there are multiple key infection trigger nodes in the network, with a spatially polycentric infection distribution.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Abdulrahman ◽  
Muath AlMajthoob ◽  
Abdulla I AlAwadhi ◽  
Manaf M AlQahtani

AbstractIntroductionThe risk factors for transmission of SARS-CoV2 have been widely studied and it was evident that a population’s behavior has a direct effect on the risk of transmission. Public health measures and regulation are largely kept to control and direct these behaviors. In this study, we describe the change in transmission in SARS-CoV2 in relation to demographics before and after two major religious events: “Eid Alfitr” and “Ashura”MethodsThis is a national observational study conducted in Bahrain in September 2020 to compare the number and demographics of all newly diagnosed cases before and after Eid Alfitr (religious holiday) and Ashura religious event. A 10 day period before the event was compared to a 10 day period after the event by ten days. Data on the number of tests, number of new cases, their demographics (age, gender, nationality) and presence of symptoms were collected and analyzed.ResultsThere was significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases after both Eid Alfitr (1997 more cases, with a 67% increase) and Ashura (4232 more cases with 2.19 times more cases). The majority of new cases after the religious events were found in local Bahrainis, from 472 cases to 2169 cases after Eid, and from 2201 to 6639 cases after Ashura. The rise was most notable in females (increased by 4.89 times after Eid and by 2.69 times after Ashura), children (increased by 4.69 times after Eid and by 5 times after Ashura) and elderly above the age of 60 years (increased by 5.7 times after Eid and by 3.23 times after Ashura).ConclusionIt is evident that religious events and holidays have important implications on the transmission of SARS-CoV2. This increased in transmission is related mainly to the behavior of the population in those days. Children, female, and elderly were the most affected categories due to these events. A thorough public health plan to limit the spread of the infection at these events should be planned and implemented ahead of time.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 101109
Author(s):  
Song Hu ◽  
Pengfei Lin ◽  
Jiancheng Weng ◽  
Wei Zhou

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Bouba Gake ◽  
Bonaventure Babinne Graobe ◽  
Bouba Abdouraman ◽  
Crescence Satou Ngah ◽  
Ahmadou Aissatou ◽  
...  

Meningococcal meningitis is a public health concern in Africa. Conjugated vaccine against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenAfriVac) was used in mass vaccination and was proved to have a good impact in the meningitis belt. There is a lack of information about the impact of this intervention in Cameroon after mass vaccination was undertaken. This study aimed at filling the gap in its unknown impact in Cameroon. A retrospective longitudinal study using biological monitoring data of case-by-case-based surveillance for meningitis was obtained from the National Reference Laboratories from 1 January 2009 to 20 September 2015. Immunization coverage data were obtained from Regional Public Health Delegations where immunizations took place. We compared the risks of vaccine serogroup occurrence before and after vaccinations and calculated the global impact using Halloran’s formula. Annual cases of meningitis A decreased gradually from 92 in 2011 to 34 in 2012 and then to 1 case in 2013, and since 2014, no cases have been detected. The impact was estimated at 14.48% ( p = 0.41 ) in 2012 and then at 98.63% ( p < 0.0001 ) after the end of vaccinations in 2013. This survey confirms the effectiveness of the MenAfriVac vaccine in Cameroon as expected by the WHO. The surveillance must be pursued and enhanced to monitor coming immunizations measures with multivalent conjugated vaccines for this changing threat.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  

Abstract Longitudinal cohorts, by allowing to follow over the time a group of persons with common characteristics to identify the occurrence of health events, have proven to be very valuable instruments in medical and public health research. For instance, it is possible to investigate links between exposures (demographic, biological, behavioral, environmental, or genetic) and the occurrence of observed health events. And indeed the applications of the cohorts are multiple: besides public health research (links between risk factors or exposures and disease, health effects of unusual or still unknown exposures), it is possible, for example, to investigate the impact of a therapeutic strategy or complex healthcare intervention on the population status. Therefore, observations resulting from cohort studies are now often at the heart of public policy decision-making. In addition, health-data collections are increasingly broad in our societies (data from research, care, patient communities, or using personal initiatives such as smartphone applications and connected objects) and heterogeneous (genomic, physiological, biological, clinical, social and environmental). However, the efficiency of these epidemiological studies is limited by many factors, while resources required to develop them are very important. The lack of knowledge of the European landscape, the lack of harmonization of practices or governance or the lack of communication between various stakeholders, have an impact on the strategy to adopt. It would be essential to consider procedures to optimize resources, harmonize methodologies and coordination between structures, in such a context where epidemiological expertise is sometimes scarce and under-resourced. Furthermore, possibilities of international cross-cohorts linkages and collaborations could allow for unique and fruitful research opportunities, impossible to achieve in the setting of a stand-alone cohort. During this workshop, we propose to present different European initiatives and coordination models, but also to highlight collaborations between these cohorts. This brainstorming would allow us 1) to expose methodologies and best practices, which are developed by the various stakeholders; 2) to identify common or transposable procedures in order to participate in sustainable European strategy and at last, to address the challenges of developing future cohorts and using personal health data. For this purpose, four speakers will present the French landscape developed over the past ten years and three models of cohort coordination and data mining in Europe: the French cohort Constances, the Swedish consortium Cohorts.se and the German National Cohort. Each participant will speak for 15 minutes. Then the chairperson will lead the workshop’s joint discussion with the four speakers and the audience. Key messages cohorts are one of the reference instruments for epidemiological and public health research, and represent a significant advantage in decision support. efforts are need to improve the coordination of these cohorts, both nationally and internationally, to sustain these expensive instruments and foster the development of international collaborations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (32) ◽  
pp. 1950393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Xia Zhang ◽  
Yi-Xuan Feng ◽  
Rui-Qi Yang

With the rapid development of the Internet, social media networks have become the primary platform for people to express their views. In addition, network public opinion has a considerable influence on society. Thus, considering the significant impact of online public opinion on society, it is necessary to study and analyze the propagation process for public opinion. In this study, we propose the Media and Interpersonal Relationship-SEIR (MI-SEIR) model based on the SEIR model. Our proposed model considers the impact of media transmission and interpersonal relationships on opinion propagation. Our MI-SEIR model divides the propagation nodes into three categories: support, neutral and opposition. There is a discussion mechanism between these nodes that represents the node’s viewpoint value evolution rule based on the node firmness, influence of nodes, quality of media coverage and parameters of infection. The state transition of nodes is decided based on the change of opinion value. Our simulation experimental results show that this model is more representative of the real propagation of online public opinion and is thus of practical significance for research and opinion analysis applications.


European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Glencross

This article explores why there was no domino effect after Brexit and reflects on what this means for the health of European integration. It shows how the UK responded to the uncertainty surrounding the Article 50 talks by testing EU unity, prompting both sides to discuss a no-deal outcome. Evidence from Eurobarometer surveys demonstrates that attachment to the EU strengthened markedly during Brexit talks in the four countries considered most likely to flirt with leaving the EU. Hence Brexit changed the benchmarking process surrounding citizens’ evaluation of the prospects of getting a better deal outside the EU. Risk aversion thus explains the lack of a Brexit domino effect. However, the volatility of public opinion before and after the Article 50 talks, combined with the weaker increase in support over the EU as a whole, means there is no room for complacency over the future prospects of disintegration.


Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 137 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacinthe Leclerc ◽  
Claudia Blais ◽  
Louis Rochette ◽  
Denis Hamel ◽  
Line Guénette ◽  
...  

Background: Even with many direct oral anticoagulant options, brand-name or generic warfarin is still widely used to prevent atherothrombotic events in cardiology. Federal standards regulate bioequivalence of generic vs. brand-name drugs through comparative bioavailability studies but does not regulate clinical equivalence nor tolerability in a “real-life” settings. Through public health surveillance, we have evaluated the impact of the generic warfarin commercialization on health care utilization: emergency room (ER) consultations or hospitalizations. Methods: We used an interrupted time series analysis using the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System, a surveillance system from the second populous province in Canada (~8.3 million in 2017). Rates of health care utilization for warfarin users (n=280,158) aged ≥ 66 years were calculated for 6-month periods, 5 years before up to 15 years after warfarin commercialization (from January 1996 to January 2016). Periods before and after generic warfarin commercialization were compared by negative binomial segmented regression models for all users with a specific variable for generic or brand-name users. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Results: Generic warfarin analogs (n=5) were commercialized from January 2001. There was an approximated mean rate of 1134 ER or hospitalizations for 1000 brand-name and generic users per 6-month period, similar before and after generics commercialization. After generics commercialization, there was an immediate increase in rates of health care utilization for generic (9.9%) vs. brand-name users (0%), a statistically significant difference (9.9% [95% confidence interval: 4.4% to 15.5%], p = 0.0001). Rates of health care utilization remained stable and higher for generic vs. brand-name users throughout the period after generics commercialization. Conclusion: Among generic warfarin users, we observed an increased rates of health care utilization soon after generics commercialization. Risk and survival analysis studies controlling for potential confounders are required to deepen this pharmacovigilance signal as stricter licensing process may be required.


2021 ◽  
pp. 001789692110373
Author(s):  
Justin Zeien ◽  
Jeffery Hanna ◽  
Jasper Puracan ◽  
Sara Yee ◽  
Abel De Castro ◽  
...  

Objective: To identify the impact of volunteering in a street medicine programme on perceptions of and attitudes towards individuals experiencing homelessness. Design: Prospective pre- and post-analysis using involvement in a street medicine programme as the intervention. Attitudes towards and perceptions of individuals experiencing homelessness were measured using the Health Professional Attitude Towards the Homeless Inventory (HPATHI). Setting: Participants provided outreach to individuals experiencing homelessness across metro Phoenix in parks and in homeless encampments along the streets. Method: Students and preceptors from numerous professions, including medicine, nursing, social work, physical therapy, occupational therapy, public health and undergraduate students, who volunteered for the street medicine programme were organised into small outreach teams. All volunteers were emailed the HPATHI to complete before and after semester-long, monthly outreach events. Results: Volunteering in our street medicine programme demonstrated statistically significant improvements in perceptions of and attitudes towards individuals experiencing homelessness for all volunteers, regardless of profession. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that integrating street medicine programmes into curricula for health and social care programmes can reduce the stigma towards individuals experiencing homelessness, inspire increased commitment to practising in underserved communities and meet the unmet health and social needs of the homeless population.


Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2679
Author(s):  
Li Liang ◽  
Keyu Qin ◽  
Sijian Jiang ◽  
Xiaoyu Wang ◽  
Yunting Shi

Human food safety should be given priority during a major public health crisis. As the primary element of agricultural production, labor tends to suffer the most during a period of public health concern. Studying the impact of epidemic-affected labor shortages on agricultural production, trade, and prices has important implications for food security. This study used a calculable general equilibrium model to study the changes in China’s agricultural production, trade, and prices under different labor damage scenarios. The results showed that agricultural production was less affected under a scenario where the epidemic was controlled locally. The output of agricultural products decreased by about 2.19%, and the prices of agricultural products increased slightly. However, the nationwide output of agricultural products decreased by only 0.1%, and the prices remained largely stable. In the case of the spread of the epidemic, the output of agricultural products in the epidemic area decreased by 2.11%, and the prices of certain agricultural products increased significantly. For example, the price of vegetables increased by 0.78%, the price of pork increased by about 0.7%, and those of agricultural products in other parts of the country also increased slightly. Compared with the national spread scenario, the local outbreak scenario had a smaller impact on China’s food security, indicating China’s effective policy against the epidemic. Although the impact of labor shortage under the influence of the epidemic on China was relatively limited, and considering its stable food security, we should pay attention to the increase in the process of agricultural products and changes in agricultural trade in the epidemic area. The residents in the epidemic areas could not effectively obtain nutritious food, which affected their health. Thus, the government should also completely mobilize agricultural resources to ensure the nutrition safety of residents during major public health incidents.


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