scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Eye Diseases and Associated Economical Costs

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 7197
Author(s):  
Lucía Echevarría-Lucas ◽  
José Mᵃ Senciales-González ◽  
María Eloísa Medialdea-Hurtado ◽  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Eye Diseases ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Mitigation Action ◽  
Change Mitigation

Climate change generates negative impacts on human health. However, little is known about specific impacts on eye diseases, especially in arid and semi-arid areas where increases in air temperatures are expected. Therefore, the main goals of this research are: (i) to highlight the association between common eye diseases and environmental factors; and (ii) to analyze, through the available literature, the health expenditure involved in combating these diseases and the savings from mitigating the environmental factors that aggravate them. Mixed methods were used to assess the cross-variables (environmental factors, eye diseases, health costs). Considering Southern Spain as an example, our results showed that areas with similar climatic conditions could increase eye diseases due to a sustained increase in temperatures and torrential rains, among other factors. We highlight that an increase in eye diseases in Southern Spain is conditioned by the effects of climate change by up to 36.5%; the economic burden of the main eye diseases, extrapolated to the rest of the country, would represent an annual burden of 0.7% of Spain’s Gross Domestic Product. In conclusion, the increase in eye diseases has a strong economic and social impact that could be reduced with proper management of the effects of climate change. We propose a new concept: disease sink, defined as any climate change mitigation action which reduces the incidence or morbidity of disease.

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

scholarly journals Capturing complexity: Forests, decision-making and climate change mitigation action

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 238-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.J. Klapwijk ◽  
J. Boberg ◽  
J. Bergh ◽  
K. Bishop ◽  
C. Björkman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Action ◽  
Change Mitigation

Empirical models for forecasting changes in the phenology of ice cover for Canadian lakes

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 982-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Shuter ◽  
C.K. Minns ◽  
S.R. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Phenology Model ◽  
Ice Phenology

In situ and remote-sensed data on freeze-up and break-up dates for lakes spread over much of Canada were used to develop and validate simple regression models linking lake ice phenology to climatic conditions and lake morphometry. The primary variables affecting fall freeze-up dates were the fall date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C and lake mean depth; the primary variables affecting spring break-up date were the spring date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C, solar elevation on that date, and the number of days over winter when 30-day smoothed air temperatures were <0 °C. These models were used to project potential impacts of climate change on ice phenology across Canada; by 2055 (under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 emissions scenario), freeze-up dates were projected to be an average of 10 days later. Break-up dates were projected to be from 0 to 16 days earlier, with greater changes occurring at higher latitudes. These projections were similar to those independently derived using a mechanistic ice phenology model.

scholarly journals Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han ◽  
Yuxin Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Ant ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

scholarly journals Agroclimatic conditions of the Osijek area during referent (1961–1990) and recent (1991–2018) climate periods

2021 ◽  
Vol 54/55 (54/55) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Darija Bilandžija ◽  
Silvija Martinčić
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Hydrothermal Condition ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Elements

One highly important segment of agricultural production is the agroecological condition of a given area, including climatic conditions, which have been changing recently. Croatia belongs to a climate zone also known as a climate hot spot, characterised by a pronounced sensitivity to climate change. In order to determine if the climate has changed in the Osijek area, climatic elements and agroclimatic indicators were analysed for a referent period (1961∑1990) and a recent period (1991∑2018). The analysis shows that the climate has changed in the recent period as compared to the referent period. The identified climate changes manifest in higher mean air temperatures, higher precipitation amount, increased actual evapotranspiration and prolonged vegetation periods in the recent period. Furthermore, hydrothermal condition analysis shows that the ten warmest years and vegetation periods in the studied 58-year period were within the past 26 years. Due to the identified climate change and the assumption that the climate will continue to change in the future, adaptation and mitigation measures will have to be applied in agricultural production. For a more reliable assessment of agroclimatic conditions at certain area, it is recommended to analyse other climatic elements as well, such as the number of consecutive dry or rainy days above the critical precipitation threshold, wind, solar radiation, insolation, etc.

scholarly journals Climate change in MATOPIBA region of Brazil using Thornthwaite (1948) classification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUCAS Eduardo OLIVEIRA-APARECIDO ◽  
Alexson Filgueiras Dutra ◽  
Pedro Antonio Lorençone ◽  
Francisco de Alcântara Neto ◽  
João Antonio Lorençon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Classification Index

Abstract Identify the climatic characterization of a region and its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its changes in the face of climate change events, is essential for agrometeorological studies because they can assist in the planning of strategies that reduce the negative impacts generated in the cultures exposed to critical climatic conditions. Thus, this study aimed to characterize the climatic conditions of the MATOPIBA region and its changes in scenarios of climate change using the classification index of Thornthwaite (1948). Daily time series of rainfall and temperature data in the 1950–1990 period were used, arranged in a 0.25º × 0.25º grid, covering 467 points over the studied region. The data set was used to estimate climatological water balance and climate index Thornthwaite (1948), and obtain the trends climatological according to IPCC (2014) climate change projections, with changes in the average air temperature (+ 1.5°C and − 1.5°C) and precipitation (+ 30% and − 30%). The MATOPIBA region is characterized by its humid, dry subhumid, and Moist subhumid climate, with the rainy seasons, between October and April, and drought, from May to September, well defined. In MATOPIBA climate change scenarios, climatic extreme indices tend to alter the pattern, frequency, and distribution of climate class, which can increase climate risk and impact crop production. Therefore, the results obtained can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerability of crops to climate change conditions.

scholarly journals The implications of climate change conditions in the pavement design

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominika Hodáková ◽  
Andrea Zuzulová ◽  
Silvia Cápayová ◽  
Tibor Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Design Solution ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

The design of pavement structure is as a set of several activities related to the design of road construction, dimension and model calculations. This includes calculations of load effects, taking into account the properties of the materials, the subgrade conditions, and the climatic conditions. The measurements of climatic conditions in Slovakia were the basis for assessing changes in average daily air temperatures in individual seasons. Since the 19th century we have seen in Slovakia an increase in the average air temperature of 1.5 ° C. Currently, there are scenarios of climate change until 2100. An increase in air temperature is assumed, with an increase in average monthly temperatures of 2.0 to 4.8 °C. In road construction, as well as in other areas of engineering, we must respond to current climate change and also to expected changes. The average annual air temperature and the frost index are the critical climatic characteristics are the main for the design (input parameter) and evaluation of pavement. From the practical side it is possible to use the design maps of average annual air temperature and frost index according to STN 73 6114 from year 1997. In cooperation with the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute from the long-term monitoring of temperatures, different meteorological characteristics were measured in the current period. From the measurements of twelve professional meteorological stations for the period 1971 to 2020, the dependence between two variables in probability theory is derived. The average annual air temperatures used for prognoses are collected from long-term measurements (fifty years). The design of road constructions and calculations of road construction models, which are in the system design solution (comparative calculations of asphalt pavement- and cement-concrete pavement models), we have also tested road construction materials - especially asphalt mixtures. The results were used to correct the values of input data, design criteria, as well as measures to reduce the impact of changes in climate conditions.

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