Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

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Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.8.e49164 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽

Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Wildlife Conservation ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268814000399 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (10) ◽

pp. 2013-2023 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

W. YU ◽

P. DALE ◽

L. TURNER ◽

S. TONG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ross River Virus ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Development Scenarios ◽

Methodological Challenges ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYRoss River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

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Evaluation of the production process of potato in a changing climate in the Eastern and Western forest-steppe

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.16 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 120-127

Author(s):

S.M. Svyderska

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Forest Steppe ◽

Herbaceous Plant ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Perennial Herbaceous Plant ◽

Photosynthetic Productivity ◽

Growing Conditions ◽

The Impact

An important element of climate change is to assess changes in agro-climatic growing conditions of crops and the impact of these changes on their performance. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of Ukraine's economy to fluctuations and climate change. Given the inertial nature of agriculture and the dependence of the efficiency on the weather, now need to make timely and adequate solutions to complex problems caused by climate change. Due to the expected increase in air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere food security Ukraine will largely depend on how effectively adapting agriculture to future climate change. This includes advance assessment of the impact of the expected climate change on agro-climatic conditions for growing crops. Potatoes - perennial, herbaceous, plant, but in nature is treated as an annual plant, so that the life cycle, beginning with germination and ending with the formation of bubbles and the formation of mature tubers, is one growing season. Potato is one of the most important crops grown and diversified use in almost all parts of our country. But the main focus areas of potatoes in Polesie and Forest-steppe. We consider the relative performance of the photosynthetic productivity of potato and agro-climatic conditions for growing potatoes for the period 1986 to 2005, and expected their changes calculated by the climate change scenarios A1B and A2 for the period 2011 to 2050 in Eastern and Western Forest-Steppe. We consider the agrometeorological and agro-climatic conditions in which there may be a maximum performance of potato.

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Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

10.22541/au.163299108.87031097/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jian Chen ◽

Yuan Feng ◽

Wu Kui ◽

Dai Dong ◽

Wang Dong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Distribution Pattern ◽

Host Plants ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Range Shift ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Pattern Similarity ◽

Caterpillar Fungus ◽

Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

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Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060684 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 684

Author(s):

Yang Liu ◽

Juan Shi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Scientific Management ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Invasive Pests ◽

Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

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Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10090773 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 773 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jiufeng Wei ◽

Xiaozhou Li ◽

Yunyun Lu ◽

Ling Zhao ◽

Hufang Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Future Potential ◽

Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽

Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13020462 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 462

Author(s):

Muhammad Hadi Saputra ◽

Han Soo Lee

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Ex Situ ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Slope Aspect ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Future ◽

Suitable Area ◽

North Sumatra

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Two Varieties of Litsea coreana (Leopard-Skin Camphor) in China under Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11111159 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 1159

Author(s):

Jinwen Pan ◽

Xin Fan ◽

Siqiong Luo ◽

Yaqin Zhang ◽

Shan Yao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Raw Material ◽

Vegetation Growth ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Huai River ◽

Suitable Area

Climate change considerably affects vegetation growth and may lead to changes in vegetation distribution. Leopard-skin camphor is an endangered species, and the main raw material for hawk tea, and has various pharmacodynamic functions. Studying the potential distribution of two leopard-skin camphor varieties under climate change should assist in the effective protection of these species. We collected the distribution point data for 130 and 89 Litsea coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa, respectively, and data for 22 environmental variables. We also predicted the potential distribution of the two varieties in China using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Results showed that the two varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line in the current and future climate scenarios, and the potentially suitable area for L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa is larger than that of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis. Compared with current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable areas of the two leopard-skin camphor varieties will move to high-latitude and -altitude areas and the total suitable area will increase slightly, while moderately and highly suitable areas will be significantly reduced under future climatic scenarios. For example, under a 2070-RCP8.5 (representative of a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2070s) climatic scenario, the highly suitable areas of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa are 6900 and 300 km2, and account for only 10.27% and 0.21% of the current area, respectively. Temperature is the key environmental factor affecting the potential distribution of the two varieties, especially the mean daily diurnal range (Bio2) and the min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The results can provide a reference for relevant departments in taking protective measures to prevent the decrease or extinction of the species under climate change.

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Temperature based phenology model for predicting establishment and survival of Spodoptera litura (Fab.) on groundnut during climate change scenario in India

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i1.118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 24-32

Author(s):

M. SRINIVASA RAO ◽

T.V. PRASAD

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spodoptera Litura ◽

Intrinsic Rate ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Net Reproductive Rate ◽

Rate Of Increase ◽

Phenology Model

Studies were conducted to develop temperature-based phenology model for Spodoptera litura on groundnut, at both constant and fluctuating temperatures and to predict the possibility of pest risk in future climate change scenarios of India using ‘stochastic simulation tool’ in Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) software ,which is based on rate summation and cohort up-dating approach. Phenology model predicted temperatures between 25oC and 30oC as the favourable range for S. litura development, survival and reproduction. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm), and finite rate of increase (») increased with increase in temperature from 15oC to 30oC and decreased with increase in temperature. Intrinsic rate of increase (rm), varied from 0.05 females/female/day at 15oC to 0.17 females/female/day at 30oC. S. litura population attained a maximum net reproductive rate ‘Ro’ (334.09 females/female/generation) and total fecundity (1041.88 individuals/ female/generation) at 27°C temperature. Simulated life table parameters were used to determine indices such as the establishment risk index (ERI), the generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) by using the ‘Population distribution and risk mapping’ module of software during present and future climatic scenarios and significant increase in AI and ERI with higher GI at future (2050) climatic conditions compared to current (2000) climatic conditions indicating the strong suitability for establishment and survival of S.litura in India.

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Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution of Original Species of Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

10.21203/rs.3.rs-742744/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Liu ◽

Yuanyuan Zhang ◽

Yi Huang ◽

Jindong Zhang ◽

Qiuyu Mou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Western Sichuan ◽

Activity Intensity ◽

Rare And Endangered ◽

Original Species ◽

Suitable Area

Abstract Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus (FCB) is a famous traditional Chinese medicine, mainly used for relieving cough and resolving phlegm. According to Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020), the medicine comes from dried bulbs of five species and one variety in Fritillaria. Due to climate change and human disturbance, the wild resources have become critically endangered in recent years. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of FCB, a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of were altitude, human activity intensity, and mean temperature of coldest quarter. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, including Western Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Gansu, Northwestern Yunnan and Eastern Qinghai, with a total area of 31.47×104 km2, the area within the nature reserve was 7.13×104 km2, indicating that there was a large protection gap. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly and poorly suitable areas of FCB showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of the moderately and total suitable areas showed a increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable area of the medicine will move to the northwest. The results could provide a strategic guidance for protection，development and utilization of FCB though its prediction of potential distribution based on the key variables of climate change.

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