scholarly journals The Causes of Occupational Accidents and Injuries in Romanian Firms: An Application of the Johansen Cointegration and Granger Causality Test

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7634
Author(s):  
Larisa Ivascu ◽  
Muddassar Sarfraz ◽  
Muhammad Mohsin ◽  
Sobia Naseem ◽  
Ilknur Ozturk
Keyword(s):  
Work Environments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fatal Accidents ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Means Of Production

Organizational risks are present in any activity, so it is important to manage them properly. The jobs are dynamic and involve a series of processes and activities. The entire human resource is exposed to several risks. If these risks are approached correctly, the organizational capacity to achieve its objectives and vision will increase considerably. This paper aims to investigate the relationships between work accidents (fatal and non-fatal) and the causes that contribute to their occurrence (causes dependent on the executor, causes dependent on the means of production, workload-dependent causes, and work-dependent causes—the work environment). The augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test is employed to check the data stationarity series, while the Johansen test determines the cointegration relation of variables. The data have been collected from Romanian organizations. The vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test are applied for speed of adjustment, nature, and direction of variables’ relationship. This research demonstrated that both data series are free from the unit-root problem at first difference. The lag length criterions select the third lag for model fitness, and Johansen cointegration declares that variables are cointegrated for the long term. The vector error correction model shows the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run is 83.35% and 42.60% for work and fatal accidents. The study results show that fatal accidents have a series relationship with selected cases for the short run and have a long-run relationship with the means of production. Fatal accidents are directly related to means of production. Fatal accidents are not designed by executors, workload-dependent causes, or work environments in the short run. Fatal accidents are directly related to the means of production and sudden incidents happening in the long run. Fatal accidents are considered by executors, workload-dependent causes, or work environments in the short run. In the long run, fatal accidents are directly related to the means of production and sudden incidents happening.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

scholarly journals REVISITING KEYNES’ INVESTMENT AND SAVING MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to analyze the Keynes’ investment and saving model in Indonesia from 1981 to 2018. The researchers use the econometric test from the Granger causality test to find the short-run causal relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model to reveal both the short-run and long-run effects in the model. The result of Granger causality test demonstrates that there is no short-run causal relationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the increase in saving affects the consumption loans more compared to the investment loans. Besides, increased consumption compared to saving has more influence in raising investment. However, the Vector Error Correction Model proves that saving negatively affects investment in the long-run. This model empirically supports the long-run Keynes’ investment and saving model. Consequently, the Indonesian government needs to consider saving as a policy instrument to increase investment in the longrun.

scholarly journals Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Nurul Hafnati ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The present study was carried out to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in NAIRU estimate in Indonesia through Phillips curve approach during 25 years data from 1991-2016. The analysis model used in this research was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as attempts to determine the long run and short run relationships between inflation and unemployment matters in Indonesia. The results of Granger causality test indicated two-way relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The formulated results on long run estimate pointed out that unemployment delivered negative and significant effects on inflation. Nonetheless, Wald Test designated that there was a short run relationship between inflation and unemployment

scholarly journals Export Diversification and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates: An Empirical Investigation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
SAIMA SHADAB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Using the Vector Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto Causality approach, this paper investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between export diversification, physical and human capital, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. The study period in consideration is 1975-2017. The findings obtained from the VECM test confirm the existence of a significant long-run relationship between export diversification, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. Besides, the Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality test results reveal that imports Granger-cause UAE’s economic growth which proves the validity of the Import-Led Growth hypothesis for the UAE economy in the long-run. The results also confirm that a unidirectional causal relationship exists from export diversification to economic growth for the UAE. This finding indicates the success of the UAE economy in attaining economic diversification and reduction from oil-dependency.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Analysis of Internal and External Determinant Variables towards Profitability of Islamic Banking in Indonesia (2014-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-34
Author(s):  
Febri Ramadhani ◽  
Muhammad Rizkan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Relationship Of

Indonesia is a country that adheres to a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic Banking. The growth rate of Islamic banking in the last three years is higher than conventional banking. However, in total assets, Islamic banking is still far behind conventional banking. Therefore, it is necessary to study further the performance of Islamic banking reflected in its profitability. So, it becomes an alternative input in determining Islamic banking policies. This study aims to know the factors affecting the profitability (ROA) of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. The data used are the 2014-2020 monthly data in the amount of 79 data. The method used in this study is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of long-run and short-run relationships. The results of the study showed that the long-run relationship of the NPF variable affected and was significant positive toward ROA, CAR affected and was significant negative toward ROA, while the inflation variable had a negative relationship and not significant toward ROA. The results of the short-run relationships showed that the NPF and CAR variables positively affected ROA, while the inflation variable did not significantly affect the ROA.

Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Owusu-Nantwi ◽  
Gloria Owusu-Nantwi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Policies And Programs

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of corruption and shadow economy on public debt in 51 African countries. In addition, the study explores the causal linkage between corruption, shadow economy and public debt.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs vector error correction model and Kao cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt in Africa.FindingsThe study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between corruption and public debt. Further, the study reports a positive and statistically significant effect of shadow economy on public debt. In the short run, the study finds a unidirectional causal relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt with the direction of causality running from corruption and shadow economy to public debt, respectively.Practical implicationsThis study recommends that countries should pursue policies and programs that would provide resources to agencies tasked with the responsibility of fighting corruption. This would ensure that countries have effective institutions that curb vulnerabilities to corruption and reduce the size of the shadow economy and public debt.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by showing how corruption and shadow economy affects public debts of African countries. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine this relationship in the context of Africa.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

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