scholarly journals Estimating the Risk of COVID-19 Death during the Course of the Outbreak in Korea, February–May 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Wongyeong Choi ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Reporting Delay

Background: In Korea, a total of 10,840 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 256 deaths have been recorded as of May 9, 2020. The time-delay adjusted case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in Korea is yet to be estimated. Methods: We obtained the daily series of confirmed cases and deaths in Korea reported prior to May 9, 2020. Using statistical methods, we estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, other regions in Korea, as well as the entire country. Results: Our model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do; this was partially due to the reporting delay. Our estimates of the risk of death in Gyeongsangbuk-do reached 25.9% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 19.6%–33.6%), 20.8% (95% CrI: 18.1%–24.0%) in Daegu, and 1.7% (95% CrI: 1.1%–2.5%) in other regions, whereas the national estimate was 10.2% (95% CrI: 9.0%–11.5%). Conclusions: The latest estimates of CFR of COVID-19 in Korea are considerably high, even with the early implementation of public health interventions including widespread testing, social distancing, and delayed school openings. Geographic differences in the CFR are likely influenced by clusters tied to hospitals and nursing homes.

scholarly journals Estimating the risk of COVID-19 death during the course of the outbreak in Korea, February-March, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Wongyeong Choi ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Geographic Differences ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
The City ◽  
Reporting Delay

AbstractBackgroundIn Korea, a total of 8,799 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 102 deaths have been recorded as of Mar 21, 2020. The time-delay adjusted case fatality risk of COVID-19 in Korea is yet to be estimated.MethodsWe obtained the daily series of confirmed cases and deaths in Korea reported prior to March 21, 2020. Using statistical methods, we estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in the city of Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, other regions in Korea, as well as for the entire country.ResultsOur model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do, partially due to the reporting delay. Our estimates of the risk for death in Gyeongsangbuk-do reached 2.4% (95% CrI: 1.6-3.4%), 1.3% (95% CrI: 1.0-1.6%) in Daegu and 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.3-1.4%) in other regions, whereas the national estimate of the risk for death was estimated at 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.2-1.7%) in Korea.ConclusionsThe relatively low CFRs are associated with the early implementation of public health interventions including widespread testing, social distancing, and delayed school openings in Korea. Geographic differences in CFR are likely influenced by clusters of nosocomial transmission.

scholarly journals Case fatality risk by age from COVID-19 in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-May, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo A. Undurraga ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Case Fatality Risk

AbstractBackgroundEarly severity estimates of COVID-19 are critically needed to better assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different socio-demographic groups. Using real-time epidemiological data from Chile, the nation in Latin America with the highest testing rate for COVID-19, we derive delay-adjusted severity estimates by age group as of May 18th, 2020.MethodsWe employed statistical methods and daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported in Chile to estimate the delay-adjusted case fatality rate across six age groups.ResultsOur most recent estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate are 0.08% (95% Credible Interval CrI:0.04-0.13%) among persons aged 0-39, 0.61% (95%CrI:0.41-0.87%) for those aged 40-49, 1.06% (95%CrI:0.76-1.40%) for those aged 50-59, 3.79% (95%CrI:3.04-4.66%) for those aged 60-69, 12.22% (95%CrI:10.40-14.38%) for those aged 70-79, and 26.27% (95%CrI:22.95-2980%) for persons aged 80 and over. The overall time-delay adjusted case fatality rate is1.78% (95%CrI: 1.63-1.95%) across all age groups.ConclusionsSeverity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile indicate a disproportionate impact among seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years. COVID-19 is imposing a high death toll in Latin America. Case fatality rates in Chile suggest the health system is not yet overwhelmed, but the epidemic is expanding fast.

scholarly journals Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5053
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
High Death Rate ◽  
High Death ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Survival Interval

In South Korea, a country with a high coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) testing rate, a total of 87,324 COVID-19 cases, including 1562 deaths, have been recorded as of 23 February 2021. This study assessed the delay-adjusted COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR), including data from the second and third waves. A statistical method was applied to the data from 20 February 2021 through 23 February 2021 to minimize bias in the crude CFR, accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death. The resulting overall delay-adjusted CFR was 1.97% (95% credible interval: 1.94–2.00%). The delay-adjusted CFR was highest among adults aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (22.88% and 7.09%, respectively). The cumulative incidence rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 60–69 years. The cumulative mortality rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (47 and 12 per million, respectively). In South Korea, older adults are being disproportionately affected by COVID-19 with a high death rate, although the incidence rate among younger individuals is relatively high. Interventions to prevent COVID-19 should target older adults to minimize the number of deaths.

scholarly journals Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ◽  
Katsuma Hayashi ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Yichi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThe exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside of China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number—the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January, 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% CI: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.

scholarly journals Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ◽  
Katsuma Hayashi ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Yichi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number—the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.

scholarly journals Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetsuro Kobayashi ◽  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Katsuma Hayashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Detection ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Diagnostic Laboratory ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Diagnostic Laboratory Tests

To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.

scholarly journals Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J Grint ◽  
Kevin Wing ◽  
Elizabeth Williamson ◽  
Helen I McDonald ◽  
Krishnan Bhaskaran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Severity ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Pandemic Planning ◽  
Case Fatality Risk

AbstractThe B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (HR: 1.67 (95% CI: 1.34 - 2.09; P<.0001)). Absolute risk of death by 28-days increased with age and comorbidities. VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

scholarly journals Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J Grint ◽  
Kevin Wing ◽  
Elizabeth Williamson ◽  
Helen I McDonald ◽  
Krishnan Bhaskaran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Disease Severity ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Pandemic Planning ◽  
Case Fatality Risk

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

scholarly journals Spatial variability in the risk of death from COVID-19 in Italy, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Medical Support ◽  
Island Region ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Geographic Regions ◽  
Northwest Region ◽  
The City

AbstractObjectivesItaly is bearing the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the death toll there has already surpassed that in Wuhan, the city in China where the coronavirus emerged in December 2019. Here we employ statistical methods to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic across different regions of Italy.MethodWe manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 stratified by region in Italy. We estimated both the crude and time-delay adjusted case fatality ratio across five geographic regions of Italy.ResultsThe Northwest that includes Lombardy exhibited the highest time-delay-adjusted CFR at 23.0% followed by the Northeast (14.2%), the Center region (11.6%) and the South region (12.1%). The Island region has exhibited the lowest CFR (9.6%).ConclusionOur estimates in the Northwest and the Northeast are higher than those reported from most affected areas in China. The CFR in Northwest Italy is 1.9-fold higher than that in Wuhan. Our finding reflects the need of urgent medical support in the Northwest region and the appropriate planning and supplies procurement in other regions of Italy focusing on medical care delivery to those who are at the highest risk of poorer outcomes due to COVID-19.

scholarly journals The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110424
Author(s):  
Klára Hulíková Tesárková ◽  
Dagmar Dzúrová
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

Aims: Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death). Methods: This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases. Results: The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs. Conclusions: Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

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