scholarly journals Case fatality risk by age from COVID-19 in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-May, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo A. Undurraga ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Case Fatality Risk

AbstractBackgroundEarly severity estimates of COVID-19 are critically needed to better assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different socio-demographic groups. Using real-time epidemiological data from Chile, the nation in Latin America with the highest testing rate for COVID-19, we derive delay-adjusted severity estimates by age group as of May 18th, 2020.MethodsWe employed statistical methods and daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported in Chile to estimate the delay-adjusted case fatality rate across six age groups.ResultsOur most recent estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate are 0.08% (95% Credible Interval CrI:0.04-0.13%) among persons aged 0-39, 0.61% (95%CrI:0.41-0.87%) for those aged 40-49, 1.06% (95%CrI:0.76-1.40%) for those aged 50-59, 3.79% (95%CrI:3.04-4.66%) for those aged 60-69, 12.22% (95%CrI:10.40-14.38%) for those aged 70-79, and 26.27% (95%CrI:22.95-2980%) for persons aged 80 and over. The overall time-delay adjusted case fatality rate is1.78% (95%CrI: 1.63-1.95%) across all age groups.ConclusionsSeverity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile indicate a disproportionate impact among seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years. COVID-19 is imposing a high death toll in Latin America. Case fatality rates in Chile suggest the health system is not yet overwhelmed, but the epidemic is expanding fast.

scholarly journals COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo A. Undurraga ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Robust Likelihood

Abstract Background Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America. Methods We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework. Results As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09–4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19–3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67–3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25–58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02–42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates. Conclusions Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality.

scholarly journals Disease Profile and Death Pattern among the Children Admitted in Rajshahi Medical College Hospital

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-62
Author(s):  
Be Nazir Ahmmad ◽  
Fazlur Rahman ◽  
Naznin Parvin ◽  
Md Shamsul Alam ◽  
Shitangshu Banerjee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Medical College Hospital ◽  
Watery Diarrhea ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
College Hospital ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Medical College

Background: Rajshahi medical college hospital is a tertiary care teaching and referral center in the North-West part of Bangladesh. To assess the epidemiological trend in hospital admission, including morbidity and mortality pattern of illness in the pediatric population, it needs to develop effective health care planning, appropriate resource allocation, and integration of existing health care service facilities. Objective: To evaluate the diseases and deaths of children admitted in the department of pediatrics, Rajshahi medical college hospital, Rajshahi. Materials and methods: This is a retrospective study. The collected case records of all patients admitted in the department of pediatrics from 1st January 2017 to 31st December 2019 (3 years) were analyzed.  Result: A total of 62000 children were admitted during the mentioned study period. All the patients were distributed into three age groups infant, under five, and more than five, contributing 22%, 27.5%, and 19%, respectively. Acute watery diarrhea (21%), hereditary hemolytic anemia (18%), bronchopneumonia (10.4%), acute gastritis (9.4%), and acute bronchiolitis and wheezy child (7.17%) were the top five diseases in each of the three years of admission. Among the total admitted patients, 1003 (1.61%) patients died. Infant, under five, and more than five age groups constitute 61.3%, 28.1%, and 15.1%, respectively. Encephalitis and fulminant hepatic failure found the top two diseases causing death with a case fatality rate was 61% and 43%, respectively. The next highest case fatality rate was found in acute leukemia (15%). Other common causes of death include meningitis, cerebral palsy with complications (7.5%), bronchopneumonia with complications (3.8%). Conclusion: An admission-related comprehensive evaluation of this study will help to understand the diseases and death patterns of a hospital, leading to the development of more effective planning and case management strategies. TAJ 2021; 34: No-1: 55-62

Phylogenetic group and serotype of E. coli isolates are important risk factors affecting intensity of colibacillosis in broilers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kumar ◽  
R. Gupta ◽  
N. Jindal and Y.C. Bangar
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Phylogenetic Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Phylogenetic Groups ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Class 1

The study was conducted on 106 E. coli isolates to determine the phylogenetic group, serotype and carriage of Class 1 integrons in isolates and ascertain their association along with other parameters with vital disease measures in broiler flocks affected with colibacillosis. Out of 32 isolates of which “O” antigen was characterized, serogroup O2 comprising of 12 (37.5%) isolates was most prevalent in the present study. Most of the isolates (85/106; 80.19%) belonged to phylogenetic group B2. Mean apparent morbidity, mortality and case fatality rate (CFR) were 3.77%, 2.32% and 61.49%, respectively. There was significant difference in number of outbreaks reported in different age groups (p less than 0.0001). Also, there was significant association between phylogenetic group and age of outbreak due to E. coli (p=0.024). Comparatively, no significant association was observed between age of outbreaks and serotypes (p=0.980). There was significant association between various disease measures and E. coli isolates affiliated to various phylogenetic groups and serotypes. All the measures (apparent morbidity, mortality and CFR) of disease were highest in outbreaks due to isolates of phylogenetic group B2 and serogroup O20. However, the measures were not significantly affected by the presence of integrons in the E. coli.

scholarly journals Global Epidemiology of First 90 Days into COVID-19 Pandemic: Disease Incidence, Prevalence, Case Fatality Rate and Their Association with Population Density, Urbanisation and Elderly Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivam Gupta ◽  
Kamalesh Kumar Patel ◽  
Shobana Sivaraman ◽  
Abha Mangal
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Global Epidemiology ◽  
First 90 Days

As the COVID-19 pandemic marches exponentially, epidemiological data is of high importance to analyse the current situation and guide intervention strategies. This study analyses the epidemiological data of COVID-19 from 17 countries, representing 85 per cent of the total cases within first 90 days of lockdown in Wuhan, China. It follows a population-level observational study design and includes countries with 20,000 cases (or higher) as of 21 April 2020. We sourced the data for these 17 countries from worldometers. info, a digital platform being used by several media and reputed academic institutions worldwide. We calculated the prevalence, incidence, case fatality rate and trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19, and its correlation with population density, urbanisation and elderly population. The analysis represents 85 per cent ( N = 2,183,661) of all cases within the first 90 days of the pandemic. Across the analysed period, the burden of the pandemic primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America. While the total number of cases and deaths are highest in USA, the prevalence, incidence and case fatality rates are higher in the European countries. The prevalence and incidence vary widely among countries included in the analysis, and the number of cases per million and the case fatality rate are correlated with the proportion of the elderly population and to a lesser extent with the proportion of the urban population.

Ten-Year Study of Pediatric Drownings and Near-Drownings in King County, Washington: Lessons in Injury Prevention

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (6) ◽  
pp. 1035-1040
Author(s):  
Linda Quan ◽  
Edmond J. Gore ◽  
Kim Wentz ◽  
Jill Allen ◽  
Alvin H. Novack
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
King County ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Swimming Pools ◽  
Older Children ◽  
History Of ◽  
Water Sports ◽  
Preschool Aged Children

The factors associated with submersion events among <20-year-old persons that occurred in King County from 1974 to 1983 were studied to focus prevention efforts. Near-drowning (n = 103) and drowning (n = 96) victims were identified from medical examiners' reports, paramedics' reports, and hospital discharge registers. Annual incidence was 5.5; the mortality rate was 2.6 per 100,000 children. Although preschool-aged children had the largest incidence (12.8), followed by older adolescents (4.9), adolescents had the largest case fatality rate, 77%. Lake and river victims had the largest incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate; swimming pools, the smallest case fatality rate (25%). A total of 89% of all victims had absent or no supervision; victims supervised by lifeguards had a 42% case fatality rate. Prior seizures were part of the history of 7.5% of all victims; 25% of fatal submersions by adolescents were associated with alcohol. Bathtub submersions were associated with child abuse in three of 16 preschool-aged children and epilepsy in four of five older children. Certain age groups and sites combined had the greatest incidence: preschool-aged children in swimming pools, infants in bathtubs, teenagers in lakes and rivers. Incidence decreased in public and semipublic pools coincident with fencing regulations. These findings suggest prevention strategies: extending fencing requirements to private pools, discouraging alcohol consumption during water sports, changing bathing practices of epileptics, and improving lifeguard efficacy.

scholarly journals Estimating the Risk of COVID-19 Death during the Course of the Outbreak in Korea, February–May 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Wongyeong Choi ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Reporting Delay

Background: In Korea, a total of 10,840 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 256 deaths have been recorded as of May 9, 2020. The time-delay adjusted case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in Korea is yet to be estimated. Methods: We obtained the daily series of confirmed cases and deaths in Korea reported prior to May 9, 2020. Using statistical methods, we estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, other regions in Korea, as well as the entire country. Results: Our model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do; this was partially due to the reporting delay. Our estimates of the risk of death in Gyeongsangbuk-do reached 25.9% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 19.6%–33.6%), 20.8% (95% CrI: 18.1%–24.0%) in Daegu, and 1.7% (95% CrI: 1.1%–2.5%) in other regions, whereas the national estimate was 10.2% (95% CrI: 9.0%–11.5%). Conclusions: The latest estimates of CFR of COVID-19 in Korea are considerably high, even with the early implementation of public health interventions including widespread testing, social distancing, and delayed school openings. Geographic differences in the CFR are likely influenced by clusters tied to hospitals and nursing homes.

scholarly journals Infection pattern, case fatality rate and spread of Lassa virus in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clement Ameh Yaro ◽  
Ezekiel Kogi ◽  
Kenneth Nnamdi Opara ◽  
Gaber El-Saber Batiha ◽  
Roua S. Baty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Lassa Fever ◽  
Lassa Virus ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Infection Pattern

Abstract Background Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020. Methods Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7. Results A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in. Conclusion There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

scholarly journals Chagas Disease-Related Mortality in Spain, 1997 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1991
Author(s):  
Jose-Manuel Ramos-Rincon ◽  
Jara Llenas-García ◽  
Hector Pinargote-Celorio ◽  
Veronica Sánchez-García ◽  
Philip Wikman-Jorgensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Chagas Disease ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Male Sex

Background. Chagas disease (CD) is associated with excess mortality in infected people in endemic countries, but little information is available in non-endemic countries. The aim of the study was to analyze mortality in patients admitted to the hospital with CD in Spain. Methods. A retrospective, observational study using the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database. We used the CD diagnostic codes of the 9th and 10th International Classification of Diseases to retrieve CD cases from the national public registry from 1997 to 2018. Results. Of the 5022 hospital admissions in people with CD, there were 56 deaths (case fatality rate (CFR) 1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8%, 1.4%), 20 (35.7%) of which were considered directly related to CD. The median age was higher in those who died (54.5 vs. 38 years; p < 0.001). The CFR increased with age, peaking in the 70–79-year (7.9%, odds ratio (OR) 6.27, 95% CI 1.27, 30.90) and 80–89-year (16.7%, OR 14.7, 95% CI 2.70, 79.90) age groups. Men comprised a higher proportion of those who died compared to survivors (50% vs. 22.6%; p < 0.001). Non-survivors were more likely to have neoplasms (19.6% vs. 3.4%; p < 0.001), heart failure (17.9% vs. 7.2%; p = 0.002), diabetes (12.5% vs. 3.7%; p = 0.001), chronic kidney failure (8.9% vs. 1.6%; p < 0.001), and HIV (8.9% vs. 0.8%; p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, the variables associated with mortality were age (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.07), male sex (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03, 3.14), cancer (aOR: 4.84, 95% CI 2.13, 11.22), and HIV infection (aOR 14.10 95% CI 4.88, 40.73). Conclusions. The case fatality rate of CD hospitalization was about 1%. The mortality risk increased with age, male sex, cancer, and HIV infection.

scholarly journals Morbidity, mortality and case fatality rate from chronic hepatitis B with and without a delta agent in Kyrgyzstan for the period 2010–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 39-44
Author(s):  
K. A. Nogoibaeva ◽  
S. T. Tobokalova ◽  
K. T. Kasymbekova ◽  
S. I. Umarova
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Chronic Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Viral Hepatitis B ◽  
Microsoft Office

The purpose of the study is to research the morbidity, mortality and case fatality rate y of chronic viral hepatitis B without and with a delta agent from 2010–2017. in Kyrgyzstan.Materials and methods: analyzed state reporting forms No. 12 “Report on morbidity and preventive work (family medicine center, dispensary)” and “C51 — Distribution of deaths by sex, age groups and causes of death” from 2010–2017. Data processed by Microsoft Office Excel.Results: In the country from 2010–2017 3292 cases of chronic viral hepatitis B were detected, 1738 patients of them verified an independent course (СhHBV), and 1,554 patients combined with a delta agent (СhHDV), while the incidence did not have a statistically significant difference (3.80/0000, 95% CI 2.4–4.0 and 3.40/0000, 95% CI 2.2–3.4, СhHBV and СhHDV, respectively) were 20 times lower compared to the HBV Carrier (60 40/0000). There was no statistically significant difference between the cumulative morbidity, mortality, case fatality rate and the proportion of deaths in СhHBV and СhHDV. The death rate СhHBV increased by 4.7 times (0.090/0000 and 0.410/0000), case fatality rate — by 11.8 times (1355.00/0000 and 16025.60/0000) amid a decrease the incidence is 2.5 times (6.40/0000 and 2.50/0000) from 2014 to 2017, respectively. At СhHDV, the mortality rate was also increased by 4.7 times (0.030/0000 and 0.160/0000), case fatality rate — by 32.3 times (793.70/0000 and 25641.80/0000) against the background of a decrease in incidence by 6.9 times (4.40/0000 and 0.60/0000) from 2014 to 2017, respectively.Conclusion: In Kyrgyzstan from 2010–2017, relatively low detectability of chronic forms of HBV infection with and without delta agent was found, compared with the “HBV carrier”. There has been an increase in mortality and case fatality rate over the past 4 years, with a sharp rise in 2017 against the background of a downward trend in the incidence of СhHBV and СhHDV.

"Epidemiology of Diphtheria in Yemen, 2017-2018: Surveillance Data Analysis" (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Alamad ◽  
Yousef S. Khader, Khader
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Vaccination Status ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Probable Case

BACKGROUND As a consequence of war and collapse of health system in Yemen, diphtheria fatal epidemic occurred at the end of 2017 OBJECTIVE This study aims to describe epidemiology of diphtheria in Yemen, determine its incidence and case fatality rate METHODS Data of patients with diphtheria was obtained from the Diphtheria program in a form of line list which were collected on daily basis by electronic Diseases Early Warning System (eDEWS). Probable case was defined as any person suffered from laryngitis or pharyngitis or tonsillitis and adherent membrane of the tonsils, pharynx and/or nose. Confirmed case was defined as probable case that is laboratory-confirmed or linked epidemiologically to laboratory-confirmed case RESULTS A total of 2,243 cases were reported during the period between July 2017 and August 2018. About 49% of cases were males and 51% of cases were females. About 44% of cases were 5 -15 years old. Respiratory tract infection was the predominant symptoms (91%) followed by psedumembrane (81%). Based on the vaccination status, the percentage of partial vaccinated patients, vaccinated, unvaccinated, and unknown were 7%, 31%, 48% and 14%, respectively. The overall incidence of diphtheria was 8 per 100,000 of population. The highest incidence was among age group <15 years (11 per 100,000) and the lowest incidence was among age group of ≥ 15 years (5 per 100,000). The overall case fatality rate (CFR) among all age groups was 5%, being higher (10%) in the age group < 5 years. . Five of difficult to access governorates had double CFR (22%) which were Raymah, Abyan , Sa'ada, Lahj, Al Jawf. CONCLUSIONS : Diphtheria in Yemen in 2017-2018 affected a significant number of people. The majority of patients were partially or not vaccinated. Children ≤ 15 years were more affected with higher fatality among children < five years. Five of difficult to access governorates had double CFR of WHO estimate. To control diphthereia epidemic in Yemn, it is recommended to increase vaccination coverage through campaigns and boosters, increase public health awareness toward diphtheria and strengthen the surveillance system for early detection and immediate response and provide antitoxin for management of severe cases.

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