scholarly journals Impact of Lightning Data Assimilation on Forecasts of a Leeward Slope Precipitation Event in the Western Margin of the Junggar Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3584
Author(s):  
Peng Liu ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Yu Xin ◽  
Chenghai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Western Margin ◽  
Precipitation Prediction ◽  
Analysis Experiment ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

A moderate precipitation event occurring in northern Xinjiang, a region with a continental climate with little rainfall, and in leeward slope areas influenced by topography is important but rarely studied. In this study, the performance of lightning data assimilation is evaluated in the short-term forecasting of a moderate precipitation event along the western margin of the Junggar Basin and eastern Jayer Mountain. Pseudo-water vapor observations driven by lightning data are assimilated in both single and cycling analysis experiments of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Lightning data assimilation yields a larger increment in the relative humidity in the analysis field at the observed lightning locations, and the largest increment is obtained in the cycling analysis experiment. Due to the increase in water vapor content in the analysis field, more suitable thermal and dynamic conditions for moderate precipitation are obtained on the leeward slope, and the ice-phase and raindrop particle contents increase in the forecast field. Lightning data assimilation significantly improves the short-term leeward slope moderate precipitation prediction along the western margin of the Junggar Basin and provides the best forecast skill in cycling analysis experiments.

Jointly learning variational data assimilation models and solvers for geophysical dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronan Fablet ◽  
Bertrand Chapron ◽  
Lucas Drumetz ◽  
Etienne Memin ◽  
Olivier Pannekoucke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Inverse Problems ◽  
Automatic Differentiation ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Variational Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
End To End ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

<p>This paper addresses representation learning for the resolution of inverse problems  with geophysical dynamics. Among others, examples of inverse problems of interest include space-time interpolation, short-term forecasting, conditional simulation w.r.t. available observations, downscaling problems… From a methodological point of view, we rely on a variational data assimilation framework. Data assimilation (DA) aims to reconstruct the time evolution of some state given a series of  observations, possibly noisy and irregularly-sampled. Here, we investigate DA from a machine learning point of view backed by an underlying variational representation.  Using automatic differentiation tools embedded in deep learning frameworks, we introduce end-to-end neural network architectures for variational data assimilation. It comprises two key components: a variational model and a gradient-based solver both implemented as neural networks. A key feature of the proposed end-to-end learning architecture is that we may train the neural networks models using both supervised and unsupervised strategies. We first illustrate applications to the reconstruction of Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems from partial and noisy observations. Whereas the gain issued from the supervised learning setting emphasizes the relevance of groundtruthed observation dataset for real-world case-studies, these results also suggest new means to design data assimilation models from data. Especially, they suggest that learning task-oriented representations of the underlying dynamics may be beneficial. We further discuss applications to short-term forecasting and sampling design along with preliminary results for the reconstruction of sea surface currents from satellite altimetry data. </p><p>This abstract is supported by a preprint available online: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.12941</p>

scholarly journals The impacts of uncertainties in emissions on aerosol data assimilation and short-term PM<sub>2.5</sub> predictions in CMAQ v5.2.1 over East Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sojin Lee ◽  
Chul Han Song ◽  
Kyung Man Han ◽  
Daven K. Henze ◽  
Kyunghwa Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Conventional Method ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Error Covariance

Abstract. For the purpose of improving PM prediction skills in East Asia, we estimated a new background error covariance matrix (BEC) for aerosol data assimilation using surface PM2.5 observations that accounts for the uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions. In contrast to the conventional method to estimate the BEC that uses perturbations in meteorological data, this method additionally considered the perturbations using two different emission inventories. The impacts of the new BEC were then tested for the prediction of surface PM2.5 over East Asia using Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) initialized by three-dimensional variational method (3D-VAR). The surface PM2.5 data measured at 154 sites in South Korea and 1,535 sites in China were assimilated every six hours during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign period (1 May–14 June 2016). Data assimilation with our new BEC showed better agreement with the surface PM2.5 observations than that with the conventional method. Our method also showed closer agreement with the observations in 24-hour PM2.5 predictions with ~ 44 % fewer negative biases than the conventional method. We conclude that increased standard deviations, together with horizontal and vertical length scales in the new BEC, tend to improve the data assimilation and short-term predictions for the surface PM2.5. This paper also suggests further research efforts devoted to estimating the BEC to improve PM2.5 predictions.

scholarly journals Operational Implementation of the 1D+3D-Var Assimilation Method of Radar Reflectivity Data in the AROME Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1852-1873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Wattrelot ◽  
Olivier Caumont ◽  
Jean-François Mahfouf
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Reflectivity Data

AbstractThis paper presents results from radar reflectivity data assimilation experiments with the nonhydrostatic limited-area model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) in an operational context. A one-dimensional (1D) Bayesian retrieval of relative humidity profiles followed by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) technique is adopted. Several preprocessing procedures of raw reflectivity data are presented and the use of the nonrainy signal in the assimilation is widely discussed and illustrated. This two-step methodology allows the authors to build up a screening procedure that takes into account the evaluation of the results from the 1D Bayesian retrieval. In particular, the 1D retrieval is checked by comparing a pseudoanalyzed reflectivity to the observed reflectivity. Additionally, a physical consistency between the reflectivity innovations and the 1D relative humidity increments is imposed before assimilating relative humidity pseudo-observations with other observations. This allows the authors to counteract the difficulty of the current 3D-Var system to correct strong differences between model and observed clouds from the crude specification of background-error covariances. Assimilation experiments of radar reflectivity data in a preoperational configuration are first performed over a 1-month period. Positive impacts on short-term precipitation forecast scores are systematically found. The evaluation shows improvements on the analysis and also on objective conventional forecast scores, in particular for the model wind field up to 12 h. A case study for a specific precipitating system demonstrates the capacity of the method for improving significantly short-term forecasts of organized convection.

Data assimilation of FY-4A dust aerosol observations for the CUACE/dust forecasting system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Niu ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
Shanling Gong ◽  
Yaqiang Wang ◽  
Hongli Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Dust Loading ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Sand And Dust Storm

&lt;p&gt;A data assimilation system (DAS) was developed&amp;#160;for the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment&amp;#8211; Dust (CUACE/Dust) forecast system and applied&amp;#160;in the operational forecasts of sand and dust storm (SDS) in&amp;#160;spring in Asia. The system is based on a three dimensional&amp;#160;variational method (3D-Var) and uses extensively the measurements&amp;#160;of surface visibility (phenomena) and dust loading&amp;#160;retrieval from the Chinese geostationary satellite FY-2C.&amp;#160;By a number of case studies, the DAS was found to provide&amp;#160;corrections to both under- and over-estimates of SDS, presenting&amp;#160;a major improvement to the forecasting capability of&amp;#160;CUACE/Dust in the short-term variability in the spatial distribution&amp;#160;and intensity of dust concentrations in both source&amp;#160;regions and downwind areas. &amp;#160;By now The DAS was upgrade to assimilate FY-4A dust&amp;#160;aerosol observations.&amp;#160;The seasonal mean Threat&amp;#160;Score (TS) over the East Asia in spring increased when DAS was used. The forecast results with DAS usually agree with&amp;#160;the dust loading retrieved from FY&amp;#160;and visibility distribution&amp;#160;from surface meteorological stations, which indicates&amp;#160;that the 3D-Var method is very powerful by the unification&amp;#160;of observation and numerical model to improve the performance&amp;#160;of forecast model.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals GSI-Based, Continuously Cycled, Dual-Resolution Hybrid Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF: System Description and Experiments with Edouard (2014)

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4877-4898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Lu ◽  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Mingjing Tong ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
System A ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
New System

A Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI)-based, continuously cycled, dual-resolution hybrid ensemble Kalman filter–variational (EnKF-Var) data assimilation (DA) system is developed for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model. In this system, a directed moving nest strategy is developed to solve the issue of nonoverlapped domains for cycled ensemble DA. Additionally, both dual-resolution and four-dimensional ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) capabilities are implemented. Vortex modification (VM) and relocation (VR) are used in addition to hybrid DA. Several scientific questions are addressed using the new system for Hurricane Edouard (2014). It is found that dual-resolution hybrid DA improves the analyzed storm structure and short-term maximum wind speed (Vmax) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) forecasts compared to coarser, single-resolution hybrid DA, but track and radius of maximum wind (RMW) forecasts do not improve. Additionally, applying VR and VM on the control background before DA improves the analyzed storm, overall track, RMW, MSLP, and Vmax forecasts. Further applying VR on the ensemble background improves the analyzed storm and forecast biases for MSLP and Vmax. Also, using 4DEnVar to assimilate tail Doppler radar (TDR) data improves the analyzed storm and short-term MSLP and Vmax forecasts compared to three-dimensional ensemble–variational (3DEnVar) although 4DEnVar slightly degrades the track forecast. Finally, the new system improves overall RMW, MSLP, and Vmax forecasts upon the operational HWRF, while no improvement on track is found. The intensity forecast improvement during the intensifying period is due to the better analyzed structures for an intensifying storm.

scholarly journals Improving Variational Data Assimilation through Background and Observation Error Adjustments

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 485-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jann Paul Mattern ◽  
Christopher A. Edwards ◽  
Andrew M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Observation Window ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract A procedure to objectively adjust the error covariance matrices of a variational data assimilation system is presented. It is based on popular diagnostics that utilize differences between observations and prior and posterior model solutions at the observation locations. In the application to a data assimilation system that combines a three-dimensional, physical–biogeochemical ocean model with large datasets of physical and chlorophyll a observations, the tuning procedure leads to a decrease in the posterior model-observation misfit and small improvements in short-term forecasting skill. It also increases the consistency of the data assimilation system with respect to diagnostics, based on linear estimation theory, and reduces signs of overfitting. The tuning procedure is easy to implement and only relies on information that is either prescribed to the data assimilation system or can be obtained from a series of short data assimilation experiments. The implementation includes a lognormal representation for biogeochemical variables and associated modifications to the diagnostics. Furthermore, the effect of the length of the observation window (number and distribution of observations) used to compute the diagnostics and the effect of neglecting model dynamics in the tuning procedure are examined.

scholarly journals Assimilating FY-4A Lightning and Radar Data for Improving Short-Term Forecasts of a High-Impact Convective Event with a Dual-Resolution Hybrid 3DEnVAR Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3090
Author(s):  
Peng Liu ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Anwei Lai ◽  
Yunheng Wang ◽  
Alexandre O. Fierro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Total Lightning

A dual-resolution, hybrid, three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVAR) data assimilation method combining static and ensemble background error covariances is used to assimilate radar data, and pseudo-water vapor observations to improve short-term severe weather forecasts with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The higher-resolution deterministic forecast and the lower-resolution ensemble members have 3 and 9 km horizontal resolution, respectively. The water vapor pseudo-observations are derived from the combined use of total lightning data and cloud top height from the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A) geostationary satellite. First, a set of single-analysis experiments are conducted to provide a preliminary performance evaluation of the effectiveness of the hybrid method for assimilating multisource observations; second, a set of cycling analysis experiments are used to evaluate the forecast performance in convective-scale high-frequency analysis; finally, different hybrid coefficients are tested in both the single and cycling experiments. The single-analysis results show that the combined assimilation of radar data and water vapor pseudo-observations derived from the lightning data is able to generate reasonable vertical velocity, water vapor and hydrometeor adjustments, which help to trigger convection earlier in the forecast/analysis and reduce the spin-up time. The dual-resolution hybrid 3DEnVAR method is able to adjust the wind fields and hydrometeor variables with the assimilation of lightning data, which helps maintain the triggered convection longer and partially suppress spurious cells in the forecast compared with the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. A cycling analysis that introduced a large number of observations with more frequent small adjustments is able to better resolve the observed convective events than a single-analysis approach. Different hybrid coefficients can affect the forecast results, either in the single deterministic or cycling analysis experiments. Overall, we found that a static coefficient of 0.4 and an ensemble coefficient of 0.6 yields the best forecast skill for this event.

Development of the Flux-Adjusting Surface Data Assimilation System for Mesoscale Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 2331-2350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Alapaty ◽  
Dev Niyogi ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Patrick Pyle ◽  
Anantharman Chandrasekar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ◽  
Data Assimilation System

Abstract The flux-adjusting surface data assimilation system (FASDAS) is developed to provide continuous adjustments for initial soil moisture and temperature and for surface air temperature and water vapor mixing ratio for mesoscale models. In the FASDAS approach, surface air temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are directly assimilated by using the analyzed surface observations. Then, the difference between the analyzed surface observations and model predictions of surface layer temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are converted into respective heat fluxes, referred to as adjustment heat fluxes of sensible and latent heat. These adjustment heat fluxes are then used in the prognostic equations for soil temperature and moisture via indirect assimilation in the form of several new adjustment evaporative fluxes. Thus, simulated surface fluxes for the subsequent model time step are affected such that the predicted surface air temperature and water vapor mixing ratio conform more closely to observations. The simultaneous application of indirect and direct data assimilation maintains greater consistency between the soil temperature–moisture and the surface layer mass-field variables. The FASDAS is coupled to a land surface submodel in a three-dimensional mesoscale model and tests are performed for a 10-day period with three one-way nested domains. The FASDAS is applied in the analysis nudging mode for two coarse-resolution nested domains and in the observational nudging mode for a fine-resolution nested domain. Further, the effects of FASDAS on two different initial specifications of a three-dimensional soil moisture field are also studied. Results indicate that the FASDAS consistently improved the accuracy of the model simulations.

scholarly journals A Scheme to Assimilate “No Rain” Observations from Doppler Radar

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shibo Gao ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Jinzhong Min ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Zhuming Ying
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract Radar reflectivity observations contain valuable information on precipitation and have been assimilated into numerical weather prediction models for improved microphysics initialization. However, low-reflectivity (or so-called no rain) echoes have often been ignored or not effectively used in radar data assimilation schemes. In this paper, a scheme to assimilate no-rain radar observations is described within the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model’s three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) system, and its impact on precipitation forecasts is demonstrated. The key feature of the scheme is a neighborhood-based approach to adjusting water vapor when a grid point is deemed as no rain. The performance of the scheme is first examined using a severe convective case in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains and then verified by running the 3DVar system in the same region, with and without the no-rain assimilation scheme for 68 days and 3-hourly rapid update cycles. It is shown that the no-rain data assimilation method reduces the bias and false alarm ratio of precipitation over its counterpart without that assimilation. The no-rain assimilation also improved humidity, temperature, and wind fields, with the largest error reduction in the water vapor field, both near the surface and at upper levels. It is also shown that the advantage of the scheme is in its ability to conserve total water content in cycled radar data assimilation, which cannot be achieved by assimilating only precipitation echoes.

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