scholarly journals An Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China between 2006 and 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laijun Zhao ◽  
Ying Qian ◽  
Qing-Mi Hu ◽  
Ran Jiang ◽  
Meiting Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Petrochemical Industry ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
Hazardous Chemicals ◽  
Chemical Accidents ◽  
Management Evaluation ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
The Relationship

From the perspective of characteristics and causes, probability and forecast, and safety management evaluation, this paper analyzes 3974 hazardous chemical casualty accidents that occurred between 2006 and 2017 in China. The trends, monthly and hourly distributions, lifecycles, chemical and accident types, and the direct and indirect causes of casualty accidents are analyzed first. To estimate the probability of casualty accidents, the Poisson regression model is employed. The time series model is developed to forecast the number of casualty accidents. The safety management of hazardous chemicals is evaluated based on an inverted U-shaped curve that fits the relationship between the number of casualty accidents and petrochemical industry outputs. Moreover, measures for improving the safety management of hazardous chemicals are provided based on the analysis, forecast, and evaluation. The results show that the probability of 200–600 casualty accidents occurring per year in China is 59.10%. Sixteen of thirty provinces are identified as having better safety management with regard to hazardous chemicals.

The Relationship of Schizophrenic Births to 16 Infectious Diseases

1994 ◽  
Vol 165 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. O'Callaghan ◽  
P. C. Sham ◽  
N. Takei ◽  
G. Murray ◽  
G. Glover ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
The Other ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
First Admission

BackgroundRecently, several investigators have reported an association between influenza epidemics and increased birth rates of ‘preschizophrenic’ individuals some four to six months later. Here we examine whether maternal exposure to other infectious diseases can also predispose the foetus to later schizophrenia.MethodTwo independent sets of dates of birth of first admission schizophrenic patients, born between 1938 and 1965 in England and Wales, were obtained from the Mental Health Enquiry in England and Wales. Data on the number of deaths per month from 16 infectious diseases between 1937 and 1965 in England and Wales were also collected. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the relationship between deaths from infectious diseases and schizophrenic births.ResultsIn the two separate data sets, increased national deaths from bronchopneumonia preceded, by three and five months respectively, increased numbers of schizophrenic births. We did not find any other significant associations between schizophrenic births and any of the other 15 infectious diseases.ConclusionsThe association between deaths from bronchopneumonia and increased schizophrenic births some months later may be a reflection of the fact that bronchopneumonia deaths increase markedly during influenza epidemics.

scholarly journals Combining semi-quantitative risk assessment, composite indicator and fuzzy logic for evaluation of hazardous chemical accidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huyen Thi Thu Do ◽  
Tram Thi Bich Ly ◽  
Tho Tien Do
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Triangular Fuzzy Number ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
Chemical Accidents ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Industrial Zones

Abstract In this study, a combination of semi-quantitative risk assessment, composite indicator and fuzzy logic has been developed to identify industrial establishments and processes that represent potential environmental accidents associated with hazardous chemicals. The proposed method takes into consideration the root causes of risk probability of hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs), such as unsafe onsite storing and usage, inadequate operation training, poor safety management and analysis, equipment failure, and factors affected by the potential consequences of the accidents, including human health, water resources, and building and construction. These issues have been aggregated in a system of criteria and sub-criteria, demonstrated by a list of non-overlapping and exhaustive categorical terms. Semi-quantitative risk assessment is then applied to develop a framework for screening industrial establishments that exhibit potential HCAs. Fuzzy set theory with triangular fuzzy number deals with the uncertainty associated with the data input and reduces the influence of subjectivity and vagueness to the final results. The proposed method was tested among 77 industrial establishments located within the industrial zones of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Eighteen establishments were categorized as high HCA risk, 36 establishments were categorized as medium HCA risk, and 23 ones were of low HCA risk. The results are compatible with the practical chemical safety situation of the establishments and are consistent with expert evaluation.

scholarly journals Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang-Hua Zhang ◽  
Hai-Yue Liu ◽  
Rui Zhu ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Development ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hazardous Chemicals ◽  
Chemical Accidents ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Diffusion Simulation ◽  
And Diffusion

The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the loss of life and property and to smoothly resume the transport network as soon as possible. This paper considers the dynamic changes of the hazardous chemicals’ concentration after their leakage and simulates the diffusion process. Based on the characteristics of emergency evacuation of hazardous chemical accidents, we build a mixed-integer programming model and design a heuristic algorithm using network optimization and diffusion simulation (hereafter NODS). We then verify the validity and feasibility of the algorithm using Jinan, China, as a computational example. In the end, we compare the results from different scenarios to explore the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the evacuation process.

scholarly journals The association of self-reported respiratory system diseases with farming activity among farmers of greenhouse vegetables

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 3140-3150
Author(s):  
Jiangping Li ◽  
Yanxia Li ◽  
Danian Tian ◽  
Huifang Yang ◽  
Lijun Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Respiratory System ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
General Information ◽  
Agricultural Activities ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
Spray Method ◽  
Greenhouse Vegetable ◽  
The Relationship

Objectives Several studies have investigated the link between agricultural activities of open-field farmers and the prevalence of respiratory diseases, but the relationship with greenhouse vegetable farmers remains unclear. Methods A total of 1,366 participants from four villages in China provided information about their agricultural activities and symptoms of diagnosed respiratory system diseases. The Poisson regression model and zero-inflated Poisson regression model were used to assess the association between diseases, symptoms, and agricultural activities. Results The prevalence of respiratory diseases was 3.59%, and the rates of four main symptoms (cough, tachypnea, chest distress, and hemoptysis) were 17.21%, 8.56%, 10.25%, and 1.61%, respectively. Mix spray of pesticides associated with cough, tachypnea and chest distress, 1.740-, 3.385- and 2.882-fold likelihood were found than hand spray, and the significant association were detected in empty, general information, life-style information adjusted models. Conclusions The relationship between agricultural activities and respiratory diseases is unclear. However, use of the mix spray method of pesticide application may increase the risk of cough, tachypnea, and chest distress.

scholarly journals Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 881-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samya de Lara Lins de Araujo Pinheiro ◽  
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva ◽  
Joel Schwartz ◽  
Antonella Zanobetti
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
Respiratory Mortality ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Case Crossover ◽  
Crossover Analysis

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

scholarly journals The effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China: a geographically weighted regression model analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huihui Zhang ◽  
Yini Liu ◽  
Fangyao Chen ◽  
Baibing Mi ◽  
Lingxia Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression Model ◽  
Auto Correlation

Abstract Background Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly among the population and brought a severe global impact. However, considerable geographical disparities in the distribution of COVID-19 incidence existed among different cities. In this study, we aimed to explore the effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China from a geographic perspective. Methods Official surveillance data about the COVID-19 and sociodemographic information in China’s 342 cities were collected. Local geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model and traditional generalized linear models (GLM) Poisson regression model were compared for optimal analysis. Results Compared to that of the GLM Poisson regression model, a significantly lower corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) was reported in the GWPR model (61953.0 in GLM vs. 43218.9 in GWPR). Spatial auto-correlation of residuals was not found in the GWPR model (global Moran’s I = − 0.005, p = 0.468), inferring the capture of the spatial auto-correlation by the GWPR model. Cities with a higher gross domestic product (GDP), limited health resources, and shorter distance to Wuhan, were at a higher risk for COVID-19. Furthermore, with the exception of some southeastern cities, as population density increased, the incidence of COVID-19 decreased. Conclusions There are potential effects of the sociodemographic factors on the COVID-19 incidence. Moreover, our findings and methodology could guide other countries by helping them understand the local transmission of COVID-19 and developing a tailored country-specific intervention strategy.

scholarly journals Does a Manager Respond to a Going-Concern Audit Opinion with an Asymmetry in Gain and Loss?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4425
Author(s):  
Taewoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Accounting Conservatism ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Audit Opinion ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Asymmetric Timeliness ◽  
Gain And Loss ◽  
Audit Opinions ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, I investigate the relationship between previous going-concern audit opinions and subsequent asymmetric timeliness in accounting. Using the time-series and price-based models and conservatism proxy, I find that firms with going-concern audit opinions subsequently report losses in a more timely manner than firms that did not receive going-concern audit opinions. Furthermore, I also find that firms exiting going-concern audit opinions are more likely to report losses rather than gains in a timely manner, compared to firms non-exiting from going-concern opinions. This study extends the prior research by exploring the association between going-concern opinions and accounting conservatism from the perspective of client firms—that is, how firms behave strategically and conservatively to bypass going-concern opinions, once the firms had received previous going-concern opinions.

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