scholarly journals Long-Term Regional Environmental Risk Assessment and Future Scenario Projection at Ningbo, China Coupling the Impact of Sea Level Rise

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1560
Author(s):  
Yongjiu Feng ◽  
Qianqian Yang ◽  
Xiaohua Tong ◽  
Jiafeng Wang ◽  
Shurui Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
The Impact

Regional environmental risk (RER) denotes potential threats to the natural environment, human health and socioeconomic development caused by specific risks. It is valuable to assess long-term RER in coastal areas with the increasing effects of global change. We proposed a new approach to assess coastal RER considering spatial factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and used a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project future RER scenarios considering the impact of sea level rise (SLR). In our study, the RER status was classified in five levels as highest, high, medium, low and lowest. We evaluated the 30 m × 30 m gridded spatial pattern of the long-term RER at Ningbo of China by assessing its 1975–2015 history and projecting this to 2020–2050. Our results show that RER at Ningbo has increased substantially over the past 40 years and will slowly increase over the next 35 years. Ningbo’s city center and district centers are exposed to medium-to-highest RER, while the suburban areas are exposed to lowest-to-medium lower RER. Storm surges will lead to strong RER increases along the Ningbo coast, with the low-lying northern coast being more affected than the mountainous southern coast. RER at Ningbo is affected principally by the combined effects of increased human activity, rapid population growth, rapid industrialization, and unprecedented urbanization. This study provides early warnings to support practical regulation for disaster mitigation and environmental protection.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Intervention and Sea Level Rise on Water-Logging Scenarios inside Polders-24 And 25 of Bangladesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
Jamal M Haider ◽  
Haque M Aminul ◽  
Hossain Md Jahid ◽  
Haque Anisul
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
South Central ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Natural Man ◽  
The Impact

Coastal region of Bangladesh possesses a fragile ecosystem and is exposed to hazards like cyclones, floods, storm surges, and water-logging. A detail understanding on the impact of water-logging due to various natural, man-made and climate change scenarios is still lacking. Considering this research gap, the present research is aimed to study impacts of these scenarios inside polders-24 and 25 which are situated on the western part of the coastal region. In this Study as natural scenario, sedimentation in the Hari River; as man-made scenario, new polders in the south-central region and as SLR scenario, an extreme sea level rise of 1.48m are considered. Long-term satellite images are analyzed, and numerical model is applied in the study area. The result shows that water-logging is more acute inside polder-25 compared to polder-24. Sedimentation in Hari River aggravates the water-logging condition. Dredging in Hari River does improve the situation. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 73-83

Long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation in global glacier response

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien Maussion ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
David Rounce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Glacier Runoff ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mountain glaciers have a delayed response to climate change and are expected to continue to melt long after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped, with consequences both for sea-level rise and water resources. In this contribution, we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to compute global glacier volume and runoff changes until the year 2300 under a suite of stylized greenhouse gas emission characterized by (i) the year at which anthropogenic emissions culminate, (ii) their reduction rates after peak emissions and (iii) whether they lead to a long-term global temperature stabilization or decline. We show that even under scenarios that achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global-mean temperature below 2 °C, glacier contribution to sea-level rise will continue well beyond 2100. Because of this delayed response, the year of peak emissions (i.e. the timing of mitigation action) has a stronger influence on mit-term global glacier change than other emission scenario characteristics, while long-term change is dependent on all factors. We also discuss the impact of early climate mitigation on regional glacier change and the consequences for glacier runoff, both short-term (where some basins are expected to experience an increase of glacier runoff) and long-term (where all regions are expecting a net-zero or even negative glacier contribution to total runoff), underlining the importance of mountain glaciers for regional water availability at all timescales.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term invasion dynamics of Spartina increase vegetation diversity and geomorphological resistance of salt marshes against sea level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Granse ◽  
Sigrid Suchrow ◽  
Kai Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Salt Marsh ◽  
Species Diversity ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
High Marsh ◽  
Marsh Vegetation ◽  
Vegetation Diversity ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe cordgrass Spartina anglica C.E. Hubbard (Poaceae) is an invasive transformer in many salt marsh ecosystems worldwide. Relatively little is known about the capacity of Spartina to accelerate salt marsh succession and to protect salt marshes against sea level rise. We analyzed long-term changes in vegetation and elevation in mainland salt marshes of the European Wadden Sea in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, to estimate the impact of non-native Spartina on the geomorphological resistance of salt marshes to sea level rise and on changes in species diversity. From 1989 to 2019, the Spartina-zone shifted and expanded upwards to elevations of the high marsh zone and Spartina increased in frequency in several salt marsh vegetation communities. At sites where Spartina dominated the vegetation already three decades ago, elevation and species diversity increased with a higher rate compared to sites lacking Spartina. The median change rates reached for elevation MHT +8.6 versus +1.5 mm per year, for species richness +3 versus $$\pm$$ ± 0 species per three decades, and for evenness +0.04 versus −0.08 per three decades, regarding plots with versus without former Spartina dominance, respectively. Invasion of salt marshes by Spartina and its continued, long-term presence were associated with increased elevation and species diversity in the face of sea level rise.

scholarly journals Storm surges and extreme storms in Sakhalin Island and South Kuril Islands

2019 ◽  
Vol 265 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Georgy Shevchenko ◽  
Ekie Kato ◽  
Marina Khuzeeva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Sakhalin Island ◽  
Kuril Islands ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Storm Waves ◽  
The Impact ◽  
South Kuril Islands

Storm surges (the significant sea level rises due to a drop in surface atmospheric pressure and an increase in wind velocity during the passage of deep cyclones over the coastal areas) pose a formidable threat to the coastal settlements of Sakhalin and the South Kuril Islands. As a result of flooding of coastal areas, the impact of storm waves on the shores and coastal facilities is sharply increased. The greatest damage caused by surges on 10.11.1990 and 9.11.1995 which affected the most populated southern part of Sakhalin Island. A long-term sea level series were analyzed, recorded at 9 coastal tide gauges located on the coast of Sakhalin Island and South Kuril Islands. Estimates for the maximum heights of the storm surges and tidal level were obtained separately, as well as for the rare recurrence of the total sea level height with the probability of these individual components superposition. The maximum total height of the sea level was obtained for the Kurilsk station, where the highest storm surge was recorded. The minimum values were obtained for southwestern coast of Sakhalin Island (Kholmsk and Nevelsk stations) were tides are small. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of strong waves were analysed from the data of visual observations.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamic and Waves Response during Storm Surges on the Southern Brazilian Coast: A Hindcast Study

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3538
Author(s):  
Andre de Souza de Lima ◽  
Arslaan Khalid ◽  
Tyler Will Miesse ◽  
Felicio Cassalho ◽  
Celso Ferreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Brazilian Coast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
The Impact

The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Around Viti Levu, Fiji

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Tomoya Shimura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Projecting the sea level rise (SLR), storm surges, and related inundation in the Pacific Islands due to climate change is important for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal regions as well as the adaptation of the coastal regions. The compounding effects of storm surges and SLR are one of the major causes of flooding and extreme events; however, a quantitative impact assessment that considers the topographical features of the island has not been properly conducted.Therefore, this study projects the impact of storm surge and SLR due to climate change on Viti Levu, which is the biggest and most populous island in Fiji. The impact of SLR on the inundation in coastal areas was simulated using a dynamic model based on the IPCC SROCC scenarios and the 1/100 years return period storm surge implemented based on the RCP8.5 equivalent scenario. The affected inundation area and population due to storm surges and SLRs are discussed based on the compound effects of SLR and storm surge.Although the contribution of SLR to the inundation area was quite significant, the 1/100 year storm surge increased by 10 to 50% of the inundation area. In addition, a narrow and shallow bay with a flat land area had the largest impact of storm surge inundation. Furthermore, the western wind direction had the most severe storm surge inundation and related population exposure due to the topographic and bathymetric characteristics of Viti Levu Island.

Evidence of acceleration in regional sea-level rise in the North Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Riva ◽  
David Steffelbauer ◽  
Jos Timmermans ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Mark Bakker
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Reconstruction Technique ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Tide gauges are the main source of information about sea-level changes in the Industrial Age. When looking at global mean values, century-long reconstructions produce rates between 1-2 mm/yr, while estimates over the last three decades reveal a much faster rise of about 3 mm/yr, as also indicated by satellite altimetry observations. In spite of this evidence for a recent acceleration, its quantification remains a challenging and relevant task, because results are highly dependent on the length of the record and on the reconstruction technique, whereas decision makers require clear proof to legitimise action. While global mean results are very important to understand climate change, regional to local variations are more relevant for the purpose of planning mitigation and adaptation measures. However, mainly due to natural variability, looking at individual tide gauge stations hampers the accurate determination of linear and non-linear trends.<br>We developed a time series analysis framework to determine whether SLR is accelerating by detecting the presence of a break-point in the long-term trend. We applied the framework to tide gauges in the southern North Sea, where several stations provide high-quality and uninterrupted records spanning more than a century (1890-2018). On average, coastal sea level rise increased from ~1.8 mm/yr over the first century of our study to ~2.8 mm/yr over the last 25 years, albeit with large inter-station differences. We performed several tests to assess the impact of natural variability on the observed trend changes and verified that stable break-points are only detected since the late 1970s, with the exact year depending on the chosen time-window. Therefore, we believe that the high sea-level rates observed over the last few decades are likely representing long-term changes.</p>

scholarly journals Coastal Lowlands' Inundation Risk Assessment with High-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in Qingdao Coastal Plains, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 382 ◽  
pp. 621-627
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Miao Li ◽  
Zhenhong Li ◽  
Houjie Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Jiaozhou Bay ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The Yellow Sea ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract. Global warming plays a principal role on the continuous increasing sea-level rise, which exposes coastal regions worldwide to flooding threat. However, the challenge is that the regional impact of SLR flooding can be variable, especially when considering multiple effects of land subsidence, long-term general sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions like storm surge. In this paper, we build module with high-resolution InSAR-derived precision DEMs with resolution of 4 m, long-term SLR trend and episodic signals of climate change to calculate the relative sea level in AD 2100 on various scenarios over the Jiaozhou Bay, one typical region of the biggest peninsula in China and an important economic centre adjoining to the Yellow Sea. The potential of TanDEM-X DEM for coastal vulnerability mapping in the Qingdao coastal area were evaluated in order to investigate the effect of the accuracy and resolution of coastal topography on the reliability and usefulness of elevation-based sea-level rise assessments. The results reveal that coastal lowland areas over the JiaozhouBay are extremely vulnerable in the following years within 21st century with use of high-accuracy TanDEM-X DEM data, which would be an advantage for further elevation-based dynamic assessments of coastal inundation events considering storm surges, abnormal high tides, and extreme precipitation events. which would be vital for locally coastal protection and decision-making.

scholarly journals The Increased Risk of Flooding in Hampton Roads: On the Roles of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, and the Gulf Stream

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tal Ezer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Tidal Flooding ◽  
Hampton Roads ◽  
Elevated Water ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes a landfall and passes near the Chesapeake Bay, causing a large but short-term (hours to a day) storm surge. The second type is when Atlantic hurricanes like Joaquin (2015) or Matthew (2016) stay offshore for a relatively long time, disrupting the flow of the GS and leading to a longer period (several days or more) of higher water levels and tidal flooding. Analysis of the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes since the 1970s shows that, since the 1990s, there is an increase in the number of days when intense hurricanes (Categories 3‐5) are found in the subtropical western North Atlantic. The observed Florida Current transport since the 1980s often shows less transport and elevated water levels when tropical storms and hurricanes pass near the GS. Better understanding of the remote influence of the GS and offshore storms will improve future prediction of flooding and help mitigation and adaptation efforts.

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