Factors Influencing Energy Consumption in the Context of Sustainable Development

Based on the global need to reduce the primary and final energy consumption, as part of the climate change mitigation strategy, the present study aims at determining the influence of different economic, social and environmental factors on the two types of consumption while emphasizing the importance of this topic for the research area. The novelty of the study resides in the factors considered in the panel analysis as well as in the combination of the analysis methods: the panel data analysis and the bibliometric analysis. The main results show that factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, gross domestic product, population and labour growth have a positive relationship with both primary and final energy consumption, which means an increase of energy consumption. Meanwhile, factors such as feminine population increase, healthcare expenditures or energy taxes have a negative relationship, which determine a reduction of energy consumption. The results should be of interest to the authorities in designing new energy reduction policies for contributing to sustainable development goals, as well as to the researchers.

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The Relationship of Causal Factors Affecting the Future Equilibrium Change of Total Final Energy Consumption in Thailand’s Construction Sector under a Sustainable Development Goal: Enriching the SE-VARX Model

Resources ◽

10.3390/resources8010001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Jindamas Sutthichaimethee ◽

Kuskana Kubaha

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Construction Sector ◽

Exogenous Variables ◽

Causal Factors ◽

Final Energy ◽

Real Gdp ◽

The Future ◽

Final Energy Consumption ◽

The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the influence of the relationship between causal factors that affect the future equilibrium of the total final energy consumption in the construction sector of Thailand under the sustainable development policy for the period of 10 years (2019–2028). This analysis was achieved with the application of the Structure Equilibrium-Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables model (SE-VARX model). This model was developed to fill research gaps and differs from those of previous studies. In the selection of variables, the study focused on Sustainable Development (SD)-based variables available through the lens of Thailand. The exogenous variables included real GDP, population growth, urbanization rate, industrial structure, oil price, foreign direct investment, international tourist arrivals, and total exports and imports. Every variable had a co-integration at level (1) and was used to structure the SE-VARX model. This particular model can effectively analyze the influence of the direct relationship and meet the criteria of goodness of fit without spuriousness. This SE-VARX model allowed us to discover that every variable in the model had an influence on the equilibrium change, where the real GDP is the fastest variable to adjust to the equilibrium while the total final energy consumption has the slowest adjustment ability. The SE-VARX model can be used to project the total final energy consumption, as verified by the performance test result. The test was measured based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and their results were 1.09% and 1.01%, respectively. This performance result had the highest value compared to other models in the past. Thus, the SE-VARX model is suitable for forecasting over the next 10 years (2019–2038). The results of this study reveal that the total final energy consumption in the construction sector of Thailand will exhibit a continuously increasing growth rate from 2019 to 2028, amounting to about 144.29% or equivalent to 364.01 ktoe. In addition, the study also found that future government plans may be difficult to achieve as planned. Therefore, the introduced model should be integrated into national development planning and strategies to achieve sustainable development in the future and to enable its application to other sectors.

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Evolution and Forecasting of the Renewable Energy Consumption in the Frame of Sustainable Development: EU vs. Romania

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131810327 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (18) ◽

pp. 10327

Author(s):

Anca Mehedintu ◽

Georgeta Soava ◽

Mihaela Sterpu ◽

Eugenia Grecu

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

The European Union ◽

Renewable Energy Consumption ◽

Final Energy ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Final Energy Consumption ◽

The Eu

This article is part of the concerns generated by the need to increase the consumption of renewable energy, so that in the European Union (EU) countries, its share in the final energy consumption, to reach 32% by 2030, increases. In the context in which, in the specialized literature, the analysis of renewable energy consumption by activity sectors is approached very little, such an analysis has high utility. The variables of interest are the share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption, and the share of renewable energy sources in the final energy consumption in transport, electricity, and heating and cooling. The study performs a comparative analysis of the evolution of these indicators for the period 2004–2019 for Romania and the EU, an empirical estimate of the evolution of indicators using time regression and autoregressive models, a forecast of the share of renewable energy consumption in the final energy consumption and by the main sectors (transport, electricity, and heating and cooling) for the 2030 horizon, providing appropriate scenarios for achieving the EU established goals, as well as an analysis of the interdependence between the indicators. Through the results obtained, the paper can contribute to improving the framework for the sustainable development of energy consumption.

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The Efficiency of Long-Term Forecasting Model on Final Energy Consumption in Thailand’s Petroleum Industries Sector: Enriching the LT-ARIMAXS Model under a Sustainability Policy

Energies ◽

10.3390/en11082063 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 2063 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee ◽

Kuskana Kubaha

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Policy Making ◽

Moving Average ◽

Maximum Efficiency ◽

Forecasting Model ◽

Final Energy ◽

Final Energy Consumption ◽

Level I

Presently, Thailand runs various sustainable development-based policies to boost the growth in economy, society, and environment. In this study, the economic and social growth was found to continuously increase and negatively deteriorate the environment at the same time due to a more massive final energy consumption in the petroleum industries sector than any other sectors. Therefore, it is necessary to establish national planning and it requires an effective forecasting model to support Thailand’s policy-making. This study aimed to construct a forecasting model for a final energy consumption prediction in Thailand’s petroleum industry sector for a longer-term (2018–2037) at a maximum efficiency from a certain class of methods. The Long Term-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous variables and Error Correction Mechanism model (LT-ARIMAXS model) (p, d, q, Xi, ECT(t−1)) was adapted from the autoregressive and moving average model incorporating influential variables together in both long-term relationships to produce the best model for prediction performance. All relevant variables in the model are stationary at Level I(0) or Level I(1). In terms of the extraneous variables, they consist of per capita GDP, population growth, oil price, energy intensity, urbanization rate, industrial structure, and net exports. The study found that the variables used are the causal factors and stationary at the first difference as well as co-integrated. With such features, it reflects that the variables are influential over the final energy consumption. The LT-ARIMAXS model (2,1,2) determined a proper period (t − i) through a white noise process with the Q test statistical method. It shows that the LT-ARIMAXS model (2,1,2) does not generate the issues of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation. The performance of LT-ARIMAXS model (2,1,2) was tested based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The LT-ARIMAXS model (2,1,2) can predict the final energy consumption based on the Sustainable Development Plan for the 20 years from 2018 to 2037. The results showed that the final energy consumption continues to increase steadily by 121,461 ktoe in 2037. Furthermore, the findings present that the growth rate (2037/2017) increases by 109.8%, which is not in line with Thailand’s reduction policy. In this study, the MAPE was valued at 0.97% and RMSE was valued at 2.12% when compared to the other old models. Therefore, the LT-ARIMAXS model (2,1,2) can be useful and appropriate for policy-making to achieve sustainability.

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Implementation of the 2030 sustainable development goals - affordable and clean energy in the European Union

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/906/1/012017 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 906 (1) ◽

pp. 012017

Author(s):

Aurelia Rybak ◽

Ewelina Wlodarczyk

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Clean Energy ◽

Information Criteria ◽

The European Union ◽

Final Energy ◽

Ex Post ◽

The World ◽

Final Energy Consumption

Abstract One of the most important goals of the European Union is to provide citizens of the Member States security and stability in fuel and electricity sectors. The United Nations has defined 17 goals and 169 actions to achieve sustainable development of the world. The goals were to improve the quality of life, reduce the level of poverty, inequalities in the world and sustainable development in terms of climate and environmental protection. The article presents an analysis of the implementation of one of the assumed goals, i.e., sustainable development in the field of Affordable and clean Energy in the European Union. This goal is to ensure that every citizen has access to stable, sustainable, and modern energy at an affordable price. Among others, indicators such as energy import dependency, energy productivity, share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption, final energy consumption in households per capita were analysed. The authors analysed the trends of the above-mentioned indicators in the European Union, with particular emphasis on Poland. In order to be able to predict how the analysed phenomena will develop until 2030, the authors built forecasts. For this purpose, among others, ARIMA models were used. The authors created several dozen models, from among which model with the smallest ex post errors and the lowest value of information criteria were selected. The models allowed to determine the degree of achievement of the set goals. They also allowed the designation of scenarios for the potential development of the analysed indicators.

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Implementation of the 2030 sustainable development goals - affordable and clean energy in Poland

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/906/1/012016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 906 (1) ◽

pp. 012016

Author(s):

Aurelia Rybak ◽

Ewelina Wlodarczyk

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Sustainable Development Goals ◽

Clean Energy ◽

The European Union ◽

Energy Productivity ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Final Energy ◽

Development Goals ◽

Final Energy Consumption

Abstract One of the most serious challenges facing the world, including the European Union and Poland, is the climate crisis and environmental pollution. The article presents an analysis of the implementation of sustainable development goals in the field of Affordable and clean Energy in Poland. The Sustainable Development Goals have replaced the Millennium Goals and enable their continuation. They were defined at the United Nations Conference in 2012. 17 goals and 169 actions were set. Sustainable Development Goals are a set of activities, the implementation of which is to lead to the development of sustainable development in the environmental, social and economic terms. Achieving the goals will be possible among others through changes in the field of climate, education, poverty or the natural environment. The study analyses, inter alia, such indicators related to the discussed objectives like energy import dependency by products, energy productivity, share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by sector, final energy consumption in households per capita were analysed. This made it possible to indicate the level of achievement of the set goals, as well as to determine the possibility of achieving the goals set by 2030. The authors also presented the results of the generated for the analysed indicators forecasts. The presented results were obtained with the use of mathematical models, which were finally selected by the authors after the validation process. The time horizon of the forecasts was adjusted to the requirements of sustainable development goals. Countermeasures that can be taken to accelerate the deadline for achieving the targets were also outlined.

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Challenges in the Development of Hydropower in Selected European Countries

Proceedings ◽

10.3390/proceedings2020051008 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 51 (1) ◽

pp. 8

Author(s):

Paweł Tomczyk ◽

Mirosław Wiatkowski

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Energy Policy ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Energy Sources ◽

Nature Protection ◽

Mutual Cooperation ◽

Final Energy ◽

Rational Management ◽

Final Energy Consumption ◽

Adverse Environmental Conditions

Hydropower (HP) in Europe is playing an increasingly important role. Its share in final energy consumption varies from country to country, which is associated with different challenges for each of them. This article presents the challenges of HP development in three countries with a diversified domestic share, i.e., Albania (100% share in 2019), Slovenia (25.7%) and Estonia (0.3%). Particular attention was paid to issues of rational management of water resources in conjunction with the objectives of nature protection and European energy policy. As a result of the analysis, the following challenges in the development of HP were identified: the need to modernize the current HP network, conflicts related to the implementation of HP projects in naturally valuable areas, dependence on external electricity supply due to adverse environmental conditions, problems with the diversification of energy sources and lack of cooperation between environments representing different interests. The countries described have different local specificities; therefore, the challenges in the development of HP are different in each of them. The key to solving them is especially mutual cooperation between various environments, integration of energy markets and diversification of used energy sources, with an indication of renewable energy sources (RES). This will enable harmonious development of each country. Furthermore, it cannot be clearly determined whether the assumed objectives of EU energy policy will be achieved. Achieving these goals is possible because the share of RES in final energy consumption in the countries described is growing.

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Talking about the Energy-saving Technical Measures in the Electrical Design of Buildings

Journal of Architectural Research and Development ◽

10.26689/jard.v1i1.84 ◽

1970 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Zhang Mian

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Energy Conservation ◽

Research And Development ◽

Energy Saving ◽

New Technologies ◽

New Products ◽

New Energy ◽

Technical Measures

At present, people pay more attention to the energy consumption of building electrical design, the use of energy-saving design can maximize the energy conservation resources, and ultimately increase the pace of social sustainable development. Therefore, the energy-saving designers involved in the need to follow the economic rational, safe and feasible benchmark to select the appropriate energy-saving measures to increase research and development of new technologies, new products and new energy, the concept of sustainable development to be implemented. In view of this, this paper mainly analyzes the energy saving technical measures in the electrical design of thebuilding.

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DAMPAK PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI, PENGELUARAN RUMAH TANGGA, DAN KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN TERHADAP KONSUMSI ENERGI FINAL DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecoment Global ◽

10.35908/jeg.v4i2.751 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Bambang Priyo Cahyono ◽

Yusro Hakimah

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Value Added ◽

Short Term ◽

Final Consumption ◽

Final Energy ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Final Energy Consumption

This study investigates the impact of economic growth on three main development sectors, household final consumption expenditure, and trade openness towards the growth of final energy consumption in Indonesia using annual data for the period 1972-2016. We applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedures which consist of stationarity test, cointegration test, as well as estimation the short-term and long-term relationships. The cointegration test revealed existence cointegration<br />relationship among the variables in the model. In the short-term and long-term model, our results indicated that the growth of value-added in agriculture sector and industry sector, household final consumption expenditures, and trade openness in the short-term and long-term have a significant effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia, while the growth of value-added in the service sector only given a short-term effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia. Based on these<br />results, it can be concluded that sustainable economic development in Indonesia needs to be accompanied by the development of new and renewable energy in order to fulfil domestic energy supply which is predicted to continue to increase rapidly in the future.<br />Keyword : final energi consumption, economic development, household final consumption expenditure, trade openness, autoregressive distributed lag modeling<br />JEL Classification : D1, E21, F14, O13, Q43.

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