scholarly journals What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2792
Author(s):  
Minerva Singh ◽  
Jessamine Badcock-Scruton ◽  
C. Matilda Collins
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Avian Species ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
International Union

The responses of threatened tropical avian species to projected climate change and land-use change are important for evaluating the ability of the existing protected areas to provide habitat to these species under future scenarios in biodiversity hotspots. This study uses Maxent, a species distribution model that employs a maximum entropy machine learning approach to map the spatial distributions of habitats suitable for the International Union for Conservation of Nature threatened birds under present and future climate and land-use change in Borneo. We find that the existing protected areas provide very low coverage of the threatened bird species’ suitable habitat areas (95%CI = 9.3–15.4%). Analysis of habitat suitability projections for 18 species of threatened birds suggests that in 2050, under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and B1, avian species with currently little suitable habitat may gain area but lose in the proportion of this that is protected. Large-ranged species are likely to lose habitat area and this will inflate the proportion of this remaining in protected areas. The present availability of suitable habitat was the most important determinant of future habitat availability under both the scenarios. Threat level, as measured by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and the habitat preferences considered here, Lowland or Lowland–Montane, are poor predictors of the amount of habitat contraction or expansion undergone by the species.

scholarly journals The mismatch between location of protected areas and suitable habitat for the Vulnerable taruka Hippocamelus antisensis

Oryx ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 752-756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Mata ◽  
Nicolás Fuentes-Allende ◽  
Juan E. Malo ◽  
André Vielma ◽  
Benito A. González
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Atacama Desert ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Core Habitat ◽  
Preferred Habitat ◽  
Educational Programmes

AbstractProtected areas help to decrease human impacts on threatened mammals but do not always include species’ core habitats. Here we focus on the Vulnerable taruka Hippocamelus antisensis near the Atacama Desert, Chile, a population that is mainly threatened by interactions with local human communities. We develop a species distribution model for taruka and assess the contribution of protected areas to safeguarding its preferred habitat. From sightings (collected during 2004–2015), absence records (collected in 2014), and environmental variables, we determined that taruka habitat is scarce, highly fragmented and limited to humid areas. Only 7.7–11.2% of the taruka's core habitat is under protection. We recommend the establishment of a protected area in the south of Arica-Parinacota district, an area without settlements that lies within the taruka's core habitat, along with educational programmes, fencing of crops, and inclusion of communities in decision-making in areas where farmer–taruka interactions are negative.

scholarly journals Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Riquelme ◽  
Sergio A. Estay ◽  
Rodrigo López ◽  
Hernán Pastore ◽  
Mauricio Soto-Gamboa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Ranges

BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

scholarly journals Ecological and Environmental Effects of Estuarine Wetland Loss Using Keyhole and Landsat Data in Liao River Delta, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 311
Author(s):  
Hongyan Yin ◽  
Yuanman Hu ◽  
Miao Liu ◽  
Chunlin Li ◽  
Jiujun Lv
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metal ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Potential Ecological Risk ◽  
Wetland Loss ◽  
Ecological Effects ◽  
Paddy Fields ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Estuarine Wetland

An estuarine wetland is an area of high ecological productivity and biodiversity, and it is also an anthropic activity hotspot area, which is of concern. The wetlands in estuarine areas have suffered declines, which have had remarkable ecological impacts. The land use changes, especially wetland loss, were studied based on Keyhole and Landsat images in the Liao River delta from 1962 to 2016. The dynamics of the ecosystem service values (ESVs), suitable habitat for birds, and soil heavy metal potential ecological risk were chosen to estimate the ecological effects with the benefit transfer method, synthetic overlaying method, and potential ecological risk index (RI) method, respectively. The driving factors of land use change and ecological effects were analyzed with redundancy analysis (RDA). The results showed that the built-up area increased from 95.98 km2 in 1962 to 591.49 km2 in 2016, and this large change was followed by changes in paddy fields (1351.30 to 1522.39 km2) and dry farmland (189.5 to 294.14 km2). The area of wetlands declined from 1823.16 km2 in 1962 to 1153.52 km2 in 2016, and this change was followed by a decrease in the water area (546.2 to 428.96 km2). The land use change was characterized by increasing built-up (516.25%), paddy fields (12.66%) and dry farmland (55.22%) areas and a decline in the wetland (36.73%) and water areas (21.47%) from 1962–2016. Wetlands decreased by 669.64 km2. The ESV values declined from 6.24 billion US$ to 4.46 billion US$ from 1962 to 2016, which means the ESVs were reduced by 19.26% due to wetlands being cultivated and the urbanization process. The area of suitable habitat for birds decreased by 1449.49 km2, or 61.42% of the total area available in 1962. Cd was the primary soil heavy metal pollutant based on its concentration, accumulation, and potential ecological risk contribution. The RDA showed that the driving factors of comprehensive ecological effects include wetland area, Cd and Cr concentration, river and oil well distributions. This study provides a comprehensive approach for estuarine wetland cultivation and scientific support for wetland conservation.

scholarly journals Future climate and land use instability can negate the benefits of protected areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Asamoah ◽  
Linda Beaumont ◽  
Joesph M Maina
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Spatially Adaptive ◽  
Climate Stress ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
High Conservation ◽  
Climate Velocity

Abstract Expanding protected area networks and enhancing their capacities is currently one avenue at the forefront of efforts to conserve and restore global biodiversity. Climate and habitat loss resulting from land use interact synergistically to undermine the potential benefits of protected areas (PAs). Targeting conservation, adaptation and mitigation efforts requires an understanding of patterns of climate and land-use change within the current arrangement of PAs, and how these might change in the future. In this paper, we provide this understanding using predicted rates of temporal and spatial displacement of future climate and land use globally and within PAs. We show that ~ 47% of the world’s PAs—10.6% of which are under restrictive management—are located in regions that will likely experience both climate stress and land-use instability by 2050. The vast majority of these PAs are also distributed across moist biomes and in high conservation value regions, and fall into less-restrictive management categories. The differential impacts of combined land use and climate velocity across protected biomes indicate that climate and land-use change may have fundamentally different ecological and management consequences at multiple scales. Taken together, our findings can inform spatially adaptive natural resource management and actions to achieve sustainable development and biodiversity goals.

scholarly journals Estimating Changes in Habitat Quality through Land-Use Predictions: Case Study of Roe Deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus) in Jeju Island

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10123
Author(s):  
Dong-jin Lee ◽  
Seong Woo Jeon
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Roe Deer ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Jeju Island ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Integrated Valuation

This study predicts future land-use changes and the resulting changes in habitat quality, suggesting a method for establishing land-use management to ensure sustainable wildlife habitats. The conservation effects were verified in terms of wild animal habitat quality according to the designation of protected areas. Land-use change until 2050 was predicted using the Dyna-Conversion of Land Use Change and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) model for Jeju Island, Korea, and the change in the quality of roe deer habitats was predicted using the Integrated Valuation and Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Results indicate that, compared to 2030, urbanized area increased by 42.55 km2, farmland decreased by 81.36 km2, and natural area increased by 38.82 km2 by 2050. The average habitat quality on Jeju Island was predicted to decrease from 0.306 in 2030 to 0.303 in 2050. The average habitat quality ranged from 0.477 in 2030 to 0.476 in 2050 in protected areas and 0.281 in 2030 to 0.278 in 2050 outside protected areas. Habitat quality in protected areas was relatively high, and its reduction was limited. Areas with lower habitat quality need approaches such as expanding greenery and improving its quality. By establishing appropriate land-use plans by predicting habitat quality, wildlife habitats can be better maintained and protected, which is a primary goal of green infrastructure.

scholarly journals Size-dependent resistance of protected areas to land-use change

2008 ◽  
Vol 275 (1640) ◽  
pp. 1297-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Maiorano ◽  
Alessandra Falcucci ◽  
Luigi Boitani
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Size Dependent

scholarly journals Influence of future climate and cropland expansion on isoprene emissions and tropospheric ozone

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1011-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. J. Squire ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
D. J. Beerling ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.

scholarly journals Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity

2013 ◽  
Vol 280 (1750) ◽  
pp. 20122131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
Çağan H. Şekercioğlu ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Land Use Intensity ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Average Probability ◽  
Land Use Intensity Gradient

Land-use change is one of the main drivers of current and likely future biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding how species are affected by it is crucial to guide conservation decisions. Species respond differently to land-use change, possibly related to their traits. Using pan-tropical data on bird occurrence and abundance across a human land-use intensity gradient, we tested the effects of seven traits on observed responses. A likelihood-based approach allowed us to quantify uncertainty in modelled responses, essential for applying the model to project future change. Compared with undisturbed habitats, the average probability of occurrence of bird species was 7.8 per cent and 31.4 per cent lower, and abundance declined by 3.7 per cent and 19.2 per cent in habitats with low and high human land-use intensity, respectively. Five of the seven traits tested affected the observed responses significantly: long-lived, large, non-migratory, primarily frugivorous or insectivorous forest specialists were both less likely to occur and less abundant in more intensively used habitats than short-lived, small, migratory, non-frugivorous/insectivorous habitat generalists. The finding that species responses to land use depend on their traits is important for understanding ecosystem functioning, because species' traits determine their contribution to ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the loss of species with particular traits might have implications for the delivery of ecosystem services.

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