scholarly journals A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5526
Author(s):  
Min Le ◽  
Xinrong Xiao ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Qianling Liang
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
The Other ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Fund Balance ◽  
Fiscal Risk ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government

It is generally accepted that China’s Employees Basic Pension System (CEBPS) cannot cover its expenses. The government needs to fill the gap in income and expenditure with fiscal revenue to ensure sustainability of the system, which may cause it to take fiscal risk caused by the volatility of the fund gap. In this article, through the establishment of a prediction model for the income and expenditure of CEBPS with dynamic mortality, we aimed to measure the fiscal risk caused by longevity risk and provide policy basis for the government. We found that longevity risk leads to serious fiscal risk. The income and expenditure gap of CEBPS fluctuates greatly, and the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of fund balance in 2067 are 1.52 and 0.44 times the expected value, respectively. The knock-on effect of fiscal risk, measured by value-at-risk (VaR), is 1.15 times gross domestic product and 4.75 times state fiscal expenditure in 2020. In this article, we not only calculate the expected value like the other literatures but also discuss the volatility of the CEBPS fund gap.

OPTIMAL REINSURANCE FROM THE PERSPECTIVES OF BOTH AN INSURER AND A REINSURER

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 815-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Cai ◽  
Christiane Lemieux ◽  
Fangda Liu
Keyword(s):  
Wide Class ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Convex Combination ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
Optimal Form ◽  
Conflicting Interests

AbstractOptimal reinsurance from an insurer's point of view or from a reinsurer's point of view has been studied extensively in the literature. However, as two parties of a reinsurance contract, an insurer and a reinsurer have conflicting interests. An optimal form of reinsurance from one party's point of view may be not acceptable to the other party. In this paper, we study optimal reinsurance designs from the perspectives of both an insurer and a reinsurer and take into account both an insurer's aims and a reinsurer's goals in reinsurance contract designs. We develop optimal reinsurance contracts that minimize the convex combination of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) risk measures of the insurer's loss and the reinsurer's loss under two types of constraints, respectively. The constraints describe the interests of both the insurer and the reinsurer. With the first type of constraints, the insurer and the reinsurer each have their limit on the VaR of their own loss. With the second type of constraints, the insurer has a limit on the VaR of his loss while the reinsurer has a target on his profit from selling a reinsurance contract. For both types of constraints, we derive the optimal reinsurance forms in a wide class of reinsurance policies and under the expected value reinsurance premium principle. These optimal reinsurance forms are more complicated than the optimal reinsurance contracts from the perspective of one party only. The proposed models can also be reduced to the problems of minimizing the VaR of one party's loss under the constraints on the interests of both the insurer and the reinsurer.

MEMBANGUN PENDIDIKAN KARAKTER SEJAK USIA DINI

Edupedia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Agus Supriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Character Education ◽  
Moral Values ◽  
The Other ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Early Age ◽  
National Education ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Character education is a vital instrument in determining the progress of a nation. Therefore the government needs to build educational institutions in order to produce good human resources that are ready to oversee and deliver the nation at a progressive level. It’s just that in reality, national education is not in line with the ideals of national education because the output is not in tune with moral values on the one hand and the potential for individuals to compete in world intellectual order on the other hand. Therefore, as a solution to these problems is the need for the applicationof character education from an early age.

Deceptive Ambiguity by Police and Prosecutors

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger W. Shuy
Keyword(s):  
Speech Acts ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cooperative Principle ◽  
Case Examples ◽  
Police Interviews ◽  
Performance Errors ◽  
Criminal Suspects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Speech Events

Much is written about how criminal suspects, defendants, and undercover targets use ambiguous language in their interactions with police, prosecutors, and undercover agents. This book examines the other side of the coin, describing fifteen criminal investigations demonstrating how police, prosecutors, undercover agents, and complainants use deceptive ambiguity with their subjects, which leads to misrepresentations of the speech events, schemas, agendas, speech acts, lexicon, and grammar. These misrepresentations affect the perceptions of judges and juries about the subjects’ motives, predispositions, intentions, and voluntariness. Deception is commonly considered intentional while ambiguity is often excused as unintentional performance errors. Although perhaps overreliance on Grice’s maxim of sincerity leads some to believe this, interactions of suspects, defendants, and targets with representatives of law are adversarial, non-cooperative events that enable participants to ignore or violate the cooperative principle. One effective way the government does this is to use ambiguity deceptively. Later listeners to the recordings of such conversations may not recognize this ambiguity and react in ways that the subjects may not have intended. Deceptive ambiguity is clearly intentional in undercover operations and the case examples illustrate that the practice also is alive and well in police interviews and prosecutorial questioning. The book concludes with a summary of how the deceptive ambiguity used by representatives of the government affected the perception of the subjects’ predisposition, intentionality and voluntariness, followed by a comparison of the relative frequency of deceptive ambiguity used by the government in its representations of speech events, schemas, agendas, speech acts, lexicon, and grammar.

Timber

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Charles Taylor ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Timber Market

During the civil war, Liberia’s forestry sector rose to prominence as Charles Taylor traded timber for arms. When the war ended, the UN’s timber sanctions remained in effect, reinforced by the Forestry Development Authority’s (FDA) domestic ban on logging. As Liberians waited for UN timber sanctions to be lifted, a burgeoning domestic timber market developed. This demand was met by artisanal loggers, more commonly referred to as pit sawyers. Out of this illicit economy emerged the Nezoun Group to provide local dispute resolution between the FDA’s tax collectors and ex-combatant pit sawyers. The Nezoun Group posed a dilemma for the government. On the one hand, the regulatory efforts of the Nezoun Group helped the FDA to tax an activity that it had banned. On the other hand, the state’s inability to contain the operations of the Nezoun Group—in open contravention of Liberian laws—highlighted the government’s capacity problems.

scholarly journals How did Sweden Fail the Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
pp. 002073142199484
Author(s):  
Finn Diderichsen
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Care ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Differential Survival ◽  
Adequate Care ◽  
Differential Exposure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Differential Immunity ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality

Sweden has since the start of the pandemic a COVID-19 mortality rate that is 4 to 10 times higher than in the other Nordic countries. Also, measured as age-standardized all-cause excess mortality in the first half of 2020 compared to previous years Sweden failed in comparison with the other Nordic countries, but only among the elderly. Sweden has large socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality. Geographical, ethnic, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality can be due to differential exposure to the virus, differential immunity, and differential survival. Most of the country differences are due to differential exposure, but the socioeconomic disparities are mainly driven by differential survival due to an unequal burden of comorbidity. Sweden suffered from an unfortunate timing of tourists returning from virus hotspots in the Alps and Sweden's government response came later and was much more limited than elsewhere. The government had an explicit priority to protect the elderly in nursing and care homes but failed to do so. The staff in elderly care are less qualified and have harder working conditions in Sweden, and they lacked adequate care for the clients. Sweden has in recent years diverged from the Scandinavian welfare model by strong commercialization of primary care and elderly care.

scholarly journals Mandatory annuitization and money's worth: evidence from Singapore

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Joelle H. Fong ◽  
Jackie Li
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Life Annuities ◽  
Compulsory Purchase ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper examines the impact of uncertainties in the future trends of mortality on annuity values in Singapore's compulsory purchase market. We document persistent population mortality improvement trends over the past few decades, which underscores the importance of longevity risk in this market. Using the money's worth framework, we find that the life annuities delivered expected payouts valued at 1.019–1.185 (0.973–1.170) per dollar of annuity premium for males (females). Even in a low mortality improvement scenario, the annuities provide an expected value exceeding 0.950. This suggests that participants in the national annuity pool have access to attractively priced annuities, regardless of sex, product, and premium invested.

scholarly journals Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaoru Tachiiri ◽  
Xuanming Su ◽  
Ken’ichi Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFor the purpose of identifying the key processes and sectors involved in the interaction between Earth and socio-economic systems, we review existing studies on those processes/sectors through which the climate impacts socio-economic systems, which then in turn affect the climate. For each process/sector, we review the direct physical and ecological impacts and, if available, the impact on the economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on this review, land sector is identified as the process with the most significant impact on GHG emissions, while labor productivity has the largest impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the energy sector, due to the increase in the demand for cooling, will have increased GHG emissions. Water resources, sea level rise, natural disasters, ecosystem services, and diseases also show the potential to have a significant influence on GHG emissions and GDP, although for most of these, a large effect was reported only by a limited number of studies. As a result, more studies are required to verify their influence in terms of feedbacks to the climate. In addition, although the economic damage arising from migration and conflict is uncertain, they should be treated as potentially damaging processes.

scholarly journals What Is Orientation in Dignitarian Thinking? Self, Other, Time and Space

2020 ◽  
pp. 174387212098228
Author(s):  
Stephen Riley
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
The Other ◽  
Core Area ◽  
Methodological Challenge ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Normative Discourse ◽  
The Government

Drawing upon Kant’s analysis of the role of intuitions in our orientation towards knowledge, this paper analyses four points of departure in thinking about dignity: self, other, time and space. Each reveals a core area of normative discourse – authenticity in the self, respect for the other, progress through time and authority as the government of space – along with related grounds of resistance to dignity. The paper concludes with a discussion of the methodological challenge presented by our different dignitarian intuitions, in particular the role of universality in testing and cohering our intuitions.

scholarly journals Lifting of Social Distancing Measures: Perspectives From Vietnam

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trang H.D. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Medical Products ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACT While many nations are struggling to slow the transmission rate of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Vietnam has seen no new locally acquired cases since April 16. After implementing 22 d of nationwide social distancing, on April 23, the government of Vietnam announced the easing of social distancing measures. This allows the country to restart its socio-economic activities in a gradual, prudent manner. Domestic tourism and exports of agricultural and anti-COVID-19 medical products take priority over the other sectors in this postpandemic economic recovery. Importantly, the country needs to stay vigilant on the fight against the disease to prevent a possibility of another outbreak.

Party and the Augustan Constitution, 1694-1716: Politics and the Power of the Executive

1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-208
Author(s):  
Dennis A. Rubini
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Glorious Revolution ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Commons ◽  
The Government ◽  
Charles Ii ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Glorious Revolution

William of Orange tried to be as absolute as possible. Inroads upon the power of the executive were fiercely resisted: indeed, William succeeded in keeping even the judiciary in a precarious state of independence. To maintain the prerogative and gain the needed supplies from parliament, he relied upon a mixed whig-tory ministry to direct court efforts. Following the Glorious Revolution, the whigs had divided into two principle groups. One faction led by Robert Harley and Paul Foley became the standard-bearers of the broadly based Country party, maintained the “old whig” traditions, did not seek office during William's reign, tried to hold the line on supply, and led the drive to limit the prerogative. The “junto,” “court,” or “new” whigs, on the other hand, were led by ministers who, while in opposition during the Exclusion crisis, held court office, aggressively sought greater offices, and wished to replace monarchy with oligarchy. They soon joined tory courtiers in opposing many of the Country party attempts to place additional restrictions upon the executive. To defend the prerogative and gain passage for bills of supply, William also developed techniques employed by Charles II. By expanding the concept and power of the Court party, he sought to bring together the executive and legislative branches of government through a large cadre of crown office-holders (placemen) who sat, voted, and directed the votes of others on behalf of the government when matters of importance arose in the Commons. So too, William claimed the right to dissolve parliament and call new elections not on a fixed date, as was to become the American practice, but at the time deemed most propitious over first a three-year and then (after 1716) a seven year period.

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