scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Zhen Cao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Zhang ◽  
Zengjun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

scholarly journals Habitat Suitability Study of Hylomecon Japonica Based on Maxent Model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Zhen ◽  
Zhang Xiaoyan ◽  
Xue Xuanji ◽  
Zhang Lei ◽  
Zhan Guanqun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Growth Area ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background: To understand the potential distribution and habitat suitability of H. japonica in China. And to provide guidance for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. Methods: The maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the potential suitable habitat of H. japonica species, and the contribution of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. Results: The AUC value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 101 occurrence records. The potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi and other provinces (adaptability index>0.6). Jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (35.6%), precipitation of wettest quarter (13.4%), the mean annual temperature (7.8%) and the subclass of soil (7.8%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. Conclusion: The niche parameters of the most suitable growth area (adaptability index>0.8) for H. japonica were precipitation of driest month (5 mm), precipitation of wettest quarter (400-490 mm), the mean annual temperature (-2-4 °C) and the subclass of soil (Glossy Chernozem, Gleyic Lime, Haplic Gypsisols).

scholarly journals The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 682
Author(s):  
Huawei Hu ◽  
Yanqiang Wei ◽  
Wenying Wang ◽  
Chunya Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Sabina Przewalskii ◽  
Dominant Plant Species ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491
Author(s):  
Xuhui Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Zefang Zhao ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Quanzhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Wei Xu ◽  
Hongyun Sun ◽  
Jingwei Jin ◽  
Jimin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Soil Factors ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Topographic Factors ◽  
Valsa Canker ◽  
Valsa Mali

Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by Valsa mali, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of V. mali using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 × 104 km2 in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3–70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for V. mali. The suitability of V. mali increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. V. mali will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1–26 to the SSP5–85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5–85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of V. mali is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large–scale research on the distribution of pathogens.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Upward Shifts in Ageratina adenophora Global Distributions in Response to Future Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changjun Gu ◽  
Tu Yanli ◽  
Linshan Liu ◽  
Wei Bo ◽  
Yili Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Altitudinal Distribution ◽  
Invasive Weed ◽  
Crofton Weed ◽  
Ageratina Adenophora

Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable distributions of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is a invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable distribution of A. adenophora remains unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential distributions of Ageratina adenophora. Location: Global Taxa: Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed. Methods: Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its potential distribution of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the distribution characteristics of this weed and the ‘ecospat’ package in R to analyse its altitudinal distribution changes. Results: The area under the curve value (>0.9) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable habitat for A.adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increase were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable habitat of A.adenophora under climate change moved toward regions with higher elevation. Main Conclusions: Temperature was the most important variable influencing the distribution of A. Adenophora. Under the background of warming climate, the potential distribution range of A.adenophora will shrink globally but increase regionally. The distribution of A.adenophora will shift toward higher elevation under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.

scholarly journals Predicting The Potential Distribution of Campsis Grandiflora In China Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianheng Ouyang ◽  
Jiangling Pan ◽  
Zhitao Wu ◽  
Anliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Central China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Range

Abstract As the research of geographical distribution of species shows significant influence on people’s understanding of specie protection and utilization, it is important to study the influence of climate change onto the geographical distribution pattern of plants. Based on 166 distribution records as well as 11 climate and terrain variables with low correlation in China, we used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora under climate change and then determine the dominant climate variables which affect the geographical distribution significantly by analysis. The results show that the area under the curve (AUC) of the train is 0.939, which implies our prediction is accurate. Under the current climate condition, the area of potentially suitable habitat is 238.29×104 km2, mainly distributed in northern China, central China, southern China, and eastern China. The dominant variables affected the geographical distribution of Campsis grandiflora are mean diurnal range, range of annual temperature variation, mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest season, the driest monthly precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, as well as altitude. In the future climate change scenario, the total area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat will increase, whilst the area of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat will decrease. In the meantime, the centroid of the potentially suitable area of Campsis grandiflora will migrate to higher latitude areas.

scholarly journals Distribution, ecology and conservation of an endangered Andean hummingbird: the Violet-throated Metaltail (Metallura baroni)

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
BORIS A. TINOCO ◽  
PEDRO X. ASTUDILLO ◽  
STEVEN C. LATTA ◽  
CATHERINE H. GRAHAM
Keyword(s):  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Species Occurrence ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Guide Field ◽  
South Central ◽  
Detailed Assessment ◽  
Endangered Status

SummaryThe Violet-throated MetaltailMetallura baroniis a high altitude hummingbird endemic to south-central Ecuador currently considered globally ‘Endangered’. Here we present the first detailed assessment of its distribution, ecology and conservation. We first used a maximum entropy model (Maxent model) to create a predicted distribution for this species based on very limited species occurrence data. We used this model to guide field surveys for the species between April and October 2006. We found a positive relationship between model values and species presence, indicating that the model was a useful tool to predict species occurrence and guide exploration. In the sites where the metaltail was found we gathered data on its habitat requirements, food resources and behaviour. Our results indicate that Violet-throated Metaltail is restricted to the Western Cordillera of the Andes Mountains in Azuay and Cañar provinces of Ecuador, with an area of extent of less than 2,000 km2. Deep river canyons to the north and south, lack of suitable habitat, and potential interspecific competition in the east may limit the bird's distribution. The species occurred in three distinct habitats, includingPolylepiswoodland, the upper edge of the montane forest, and in shrubby paramo, but we found no difference in relative abundance among these habitats. The metaltail seems to tolerate moderate human intervention in its habitats as long as some native brushy cover is maintained. We found thatBrachyotumsp.,Berberissp., andBarnadesiasp. were important nectar resources. The ‘Endangered’ status of this species is supported due to its restricted distribution in fragmented habitats which are under increasing human pressures.

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