scholarly journals Assessment of Variations in Runoff Due to Landcover Changes Using the SWAT Model in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 534
Author(s):  
Arunima Sarkar Basu ◽  
Laurence William Gill ◽  
Francesco Pilla ◽  
Bidroha Basu
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Landcover Change ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Maximum Runoff

Investigating the impact of land cover change in hydrological modelling is essential for water resources management. This paper investigates the importance of landcover change in the development of a physically-based hydrological model called SWAT. The study area considered is the Dodder River basin located in southern Dublin, Ireland. Runoff at the basin outlet was simulated using SWAT for 1993–2019 using five landcover maps obtained for 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018. Results indicate that, in general, the SWAT model-simulated runoff for a chosen time-period are closer to the real-world observations when the landcover data used for simulation was collated as close to the time-period for which the simulations were performed. For 23 (20) years (from 27 years period) the monthly mean (maximum) runoff for the Dodder River generated by the SWAT model had the least error when the nearby landcover data were used. This study indicates the necessity of considering dynamic and time-varying landcover data during the development of hydrological modelling for runoff simulation. Furthermore, two composite quantile functions were generated by using a kappa distribution for monthly mean runoff and GEV distribution for monthly maximum runoff, based on model simulations obtained using different landcover data corresponding to different time-period. Modelling landcover change patterns and development of projected landcover in the future for river basins in Ireland needs to be integrated with SWAT to simulate future runoff.

scholarly journals Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from a lumped to a semi-distributed approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 3937-3952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Garavaglia ◽  
Matthieu Le Lay ◽  
Fréderic Gottardi ◽  
Rémy Garçon ◽  
Joël Gailhard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Distributed Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration–validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture–data assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Cenci ◽  
Luca Pulvirenti ◽  
Giorgio Boni ◽  
Marco Chini ◽  
Patrick Matgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Soil Moisture Data ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture–data assimilation, SM–DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM–DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer – ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM–DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014–February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM–DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM–DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further research activities, we believe this research is timely in order to enhance our understanding of the potential contribution of the S1 data within the SM–DA framework for flash flood risk mitigation.

scholarly journals Integrating remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration and ground-monitored discharge data for the improvement of hydrological modelling: A case study of the Sekong River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raksmey Ang ◽  
S. Shrestha ◽  
Salvatore Virdis ◽  
Saurav KC
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Physically Based Model ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Streamflow Simulation ◽  
Calibration Approach

This study analyses the efficiency of integrating remotely sensed evapotranspiration into the process of hydrological model calibration. A joint calibration approach, employing both remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration and ground-monitored streamflow data was compared with a conventional ground-monitored streamflow calibration approach through physically-based hydrological, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model setups. The efficacy of the two calibration schemes was investigated in two modelling setups: 1) a physically-based model with only the outlet gauge available for calibration, and 2) a physically-based model with multiple gauges available for calibration. Joint calibration was found to enhance the skill of hydrological models in streamflow simulation compared to ground-monitored streamflow-only calibration at the unsaturated zone in the upstream area, where essential information on evapotranspiration is also required. Additionally, the use of remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration can significantly improve high flow compared to low flow simulation. A more consistent model performance improvement, obtained from using remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration data was found at gauged sites not used in the calibration, due to additional information on spatial evapotranspiration in internal locations being enhanced into a process-based model. Eventually, satellite-based evapotranspiration with fine resolution was found to be competent for calibrating and validating the hydrological model for streamflow simulation in the absence of measured streamflow data for model calibration. Furthermore, the impact of using evapotranspiration for hydrologic model calibration tended to be stronger at the upstream and tributary sub-basins than at downstream sub-basins.

scholarly journals Assessment of MC&MCMC uncertainty analysis frameworks on SWAT model by focusing on future runoff prediction in a mountainous watershed via CMIP5 models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1811-1828
Author(s):  
Armin Ahmadi ◽  
Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar ◽  
Vahid Nourani ◽  
Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi ◽  
A. A. Besalatpour
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The river situation in a dry or semi-dry area is extremely affected by climate change and precipitation patterns. In this study, the impact of climate alteration on runoff in Kashafrood River Basin (KRB) in Iran was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in historical and three future period times. The runoff was studied by MIROC-ESM and GFDL-ESM2G models as the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM-ZS) was used to calibrate the hydrological model parameters in different sub-basins. Using DREAM-ZS algorithm, realistic values were obtained for the parameters related to runoff simulation in the SWAT model. In this area, results show that runoff in GFDL-ESM2G in both RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) in comparing future periods with the historical period is increased about 232–383% and in MIROC-ESM tends to increase around 87–292%. Furthermore, GFDL-ESM2G compared to MIROC-ESM in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) in near, intermediate, and far future periods shows that the value of runoff increases 59.6% (23.0%), 100.2% (35.1%), and 42.5% (65.3%), respectively.

scholarly journals Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

2014 ◽  
Vol 364 ◽  
pp. 38-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Y. G. Dos Santos ◽  
R. M. Da Silva ◽  
J. G. Carvalho Neto ◽  
S. M. G. L. Montenegro ◽  
C. A. G. Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Model Response ◽  
Compensation Factor ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

Research the Effect of Roughness on the Distribution Overland Runoff Simulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 3668-3671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Tang Zhang ◽  
Miao Miao Li ◽  
Peng Chi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Flow Convergence ◽  
Overland Runoff ◽  
The Impact

The slope roughness is a character parameter which shows the blocking effects of earth surface on the overland flow. As a result of the impact of human activities, the land utilization types spatially change rapidly. Consequently, the catchment surface appears as broken patches pattern so that the spatial variation of surface roughness increased. And this leads to change on the runoff flow convergence velocity, the flow direction and the flow assignment in each direction. The accurately runoff simulation is not available when the roughness effect is neglected. Therefore, study on slope roughness effects become important in human activities impacted hydrological research. Based on former researches, we divided the slope roughness research into three levels, and discussed the inappropriate points of the slope runoff flow convergence algorithm, which adopted by the current distributed hydrological model, when dealing with the slope roughness on the human activities impacted catchment. Moreover, we presented that in order to obtain an effective result of simulating overland runoff. The distributed hydrological model should take the spatial variation effect of the slope roughness factor into consideration and formulation.

scholarly journals State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 3435-3449 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Rakovec ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
P. Hazenberg ◽  
P. J. J. F. Torfs ◽  
R. Uijlenhoet
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Markov Property ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Observation Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty.

Comparing the impact for hydrology of the new ERA5 reanalyses dataset over ERA-Interim for 8 hydrological models in 6 catchments using the eWaterCycle community modelling environment.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolf Hut ◽  
Niels Drost ◽  
Jerom Aerts ◽  
Laurene Bouaziz ◽  
Willem van Verseveld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Science ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Additional Parameter ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Comparison Study ◽  
The Impact

<p>The release of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s Re-Analysis 5 (ERA-5) global climate forcing dataset is expected to greatly improve the quality of hydrological modeling. Following this release there is great interest in assessing the improvements of ERA-5 relative to its predecessor ERA-Interim for hydrological modeling and predictions.</p><p>In this study we compare streamflow predictions when using ERA-interim vs ERA-5 as forcing data for a suite of hydrological models from different research groups that capture the variation in modelling strategies within the hydrological modelling community. We check whether physically based models, defined as those that do not require additional parameter calibration, would lead to different conclusions in comparison to conceptual models, defined as those that require calibration. Based on the hydrological model structure we expect that conceptual models that need calibration show less difference in predicting discharge (skill) between ERA-5 and ERA-Interim, where-as the physical based (non-calibrated) models most likely will benefit from the improved accuracy of the ERA-5 input. This assessment will provide the HEPEX community with answers on how the ERA-5 dataset will improve hydrological predictions based on different hydrological modelling concepts.</p><p>An additional key objective while conducting this study is compliance to the FAIR principles of data science. To achieve this we held a workshop in Leiden, the Netherlands, where multiple hydrological models were integrated into the eWatercycle II system. eWatercycle II is a hydrological model platform containing a growing number of hydrological models. The platform facilitates research and cohesivity within the hydrological community by providing an Open-Source platform built specifically to advance the state of FAIR and Open Science in Hydrological Modeling. We also use this study to demonstrate the feasibility of eWatercycle II as a platform for FAIR hydrological models.</p><p>Preliminairy results from this comparison study were presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2019. Here we will present the full results of the comparison study.</p>

Physically Based Mountain Hydrological Modeling Using Reanalysis Data in Patagonia

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian A. Krogh ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
James McPhee
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Cold Region ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A physically based hydrological model for the upper Baker River basin (UBRB) in Patagonia was developed using the modular Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) in order to better understand the processes that drive the hydrological response of one of the largest rivers in this region. The model includes a full suite of blowing snow, intercepted snow, and energy balance snowmelt modules that can be used to describe the hydrology of this cold region. Within this watershed, snowfall, wind speed, and radiation are not measured; there are no high-elevation weather stations; and existing weather stations are sparsely distributed. The impact of atmospheric data from ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) on improving model performance by enhancing the representation of forcing variables was evaluated. CRHM parameters were assigned for local physiographic and vegetation characteristics based on satellite land cover classification, a digital elevation model, and parameter transfer from cold region environments in western Canada. It was found that observed precipitation has almost no predictive power [Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) < 0.3] when used to force the hydrologic model, whereas model performance using any of the reanalysis products—after bias correction—was acceptable with very little calibration (NS > 0.7). The modeled water balance shows that snowfall amounts to about 28% of the total precipitation and that 26% of total river flow stems from snowmelt. Evapotranspiration losses account for 7.2% of total precipitation, whereas sublimation and canopy interception losses represent about 1%. The soil component is the dominant modulator of runoff, with infiltration contributing as much as 73.7% to total basin outflow.

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