scholarly journals Three Generic Policies for Sustained Market Growth Based on Two Interdependent Organizational Resources—A Simulation Study and Implications

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Resources ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Human Decision

This article addresses the generic dynamic decision problem of how to achieve sustained market growth by increasing two interdependent organizational resources needed (1) to increase and (2) to sustain demand. The speed and costs of increasing each resource are different. Failure to account for this difference leads to policies that drive a quick increase of demand followed by decline. Three generic policies derived from the literature have been implemented in a system dynamics model. Simulation shows that they all can generate sustained exponential growth but differ in performance: even policies criticized in the literature for provoking overshoot and collapse can drive sustained growth. This leads to questions for further research regarding (1) the set of generic policies and its structure and (2) concerning the reasoning of human decision-makers when choosing between such policies and the salience of important but easily overlooked features of the decision situation.

scholarly journals Three Generic Policies for Sustained Market Growth Based on Two Interdependent Organizational Resources – A Simulation Study and Implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin F.G. Schaffernicht
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Resources ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Human Decision

This article addresses the generic dynamic decision problem of how to achieve sustained market growth by increasing two interdependent organizational resources needed (1) to increase and (2) to sustain demand. The speed and costs of increasing each resource are different. Failure to account for this difference has been reported to lead to policies that drive a quick increase of demand followed by decline. Three generic policies derived from the literature have been implemented in a system dynamics model. Simulation shows that all three policies can generate sustained exponential growth but differ in performance. These results suggest that even policies which risk generating overshoot and collapse can avoid it. This poses two questions for further research: (1) what is the reasoning of human decision-makers when choosing between these policies and (2) how can the important but easily overlooked features of such decision situations be made sufficiently salient to be accounted for?

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model for Human Trust in Automation under Speed and Accuracy Requirements

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 822-826
Author(s):  
Aya Hussein ◽  
Sondoss Elsawah ◽  
Hussein Abbass
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Model Extension ◽  
Trust In Automation ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Speed Accuracy ◽  
Speed And Accuracy

Research shows that human trust in automation is a key predictor of human reliance on the automation. Several models have been proposed to capture the interplay between trust and reliance and their combined impacts on task performance. Whereas some models assume that trust is affected by automation reliability, others assume that trust is affected by automation speed. In fact, both speed and reliability can be crucial for mission performance, therefore, these models do not represent the interrelationships among automation speed, automation reliability, human decision making, and subsequent effects on mission performance. To address this gap, we propose a system dynamics model which incorporates both the speed and reliability of automation and their combined effects on trust. Our model explicitly represents the speed-accuracy compromise adopted by the subjects to weigh the perceived relative importance of these aspects while evaluating the reliance decision. The model is calibrated and evaluated using data collected from a human experiment in which 33 subjects interacted with an automated aid for swarm supervision in a foraging mission. The simulation results show that the model can closely replicate and predict the experimental data in terms of the reliance rate and the number of targets collected. Model limitations and further efforts for model extension are discussed.

scholarly journals Emergence of Coordination in Growing Decision-Making Organizations: The Role of Complexity, Search Strategy, and Cost of Effort

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Friederike Wall
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Distributed Decision Making ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Nk Fitness Landscapes ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Different Levels

Coordination among decision-makers of an organization, each responsible for a certain partition of an overall decision-problem, is of crucial relevance with respect to the overall performance obtained. Among the challenges of coordination in distributed decision-making systems (DDMS) is to understand how environmental conditions like, for example, the complexity of the decision-problem to be solved, the problem’s predictability and its dynamics shape the adaptation of coordination mechanisms. These challenges apply to DDMS resided by human decision-makers like firms as well as to systems of artificial agents as studied in the domain of multiagent systems (MAS). It is well known that coordination for increasing decision-problems and, accordingly, growing organizations is in a particular tension between shaping the search for new solutions and setting appropriate constraints to deal with increasing size and intraorganizational complexity. Against this background, the paper studies the adaptation of coordination in the course of growing decision-making organizations. For this, an agent-based simulation model based on the framework of NK fitness landscapes is employed. The study controls for different levels of complexity of the overall decision-problem, different strategies of search for new solutions, and different levels of cost of effort to implement new solutions. The results suggest that, with respect to the emerging coordination mode, complexity subtly interferes with the search strategy employed and cost of effort. In particular, results support the conjecture that increasing complexity leads to more hierarchical coordination. However, the search strategy shapes the predominance of hierarchy in favor of granting more autonomy to decentralized decision-makers. Moreover, the study reveals that the cost of effort for implementing new solutions in conjunction with the search strategy may remarkably affect the emerging form of coordination. This could explain differences in prevailing coordination modes across different branches or technologies or could explain the emergence of contextually inferior modes of coordination.

scholarly journals Applying system dynamics for outsourcing services in design-build projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Lisse
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Project Outcomes ◽  
Work Completion ◽  
Design Build ◽  
Engineering Work ◽  
Complex Project

This study analysed a system dynamics model for outsourcing engineering services in a large and complex project organisational structure that is typically associated with design-build (DB) project delivery. A literature review indicated that most of the reviewed papers implied the project engineering resources were totally insourced or the authors were silent regarding any resources that were outsourced. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis of various model variables was performed, which indicates that the quality and productivity of the outsourced resources as well as the initial number of assigned experienced engineers significantly impacted the amount and timing of engineering work completion. Project outcomes were also impacted by varying the number of initial and changed engineering tasks. The decision to insource/outsource engineering work on DB projects may have significant cost and time impacts, which should be considered by decision makers.

System Dynamics for Modelling Subway Passenger Flow in the Transportation Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 147-157
Author(s):  
Arzu Eren Şenaras ◽  
Onur Mesut Şenaras
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Package Program ◽  
Passenger Flows ◽  
Sd Model

Thank to developed SD model, decision makers can create appropriate policy. The importance of passenger numbers in compartments increased due to COVID-19, and managers didn't want to increase passengers in compartments too much. In this study, a model will be developed in Vensim package program. The model will be developed for analyzing passenger flows. Different scenarios can be tested thanks to developed system dynamics model. Subway passenger flow was analyzed via system dynamics. The SD model was developed in Vensim PLE package program. Passenger flow was defined as rate, and stations are defined as stock. Managers would change timing according to time, and effects of these changes can be observed via the model.

scholarly journals A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Leandro Duarte dos Santos ◽  
Sandro Luis Schlindwein ◽  
Erwin Hugo Ressel Filho ◽  
Caroline Rodrigues Vaz ◽  
Mauricio Uriona Maldonado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Problem Structuring ◽  
Causal Maps ◽  
Selection Step ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Selection Of

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

scholarly journals Research of Schema Evolution and Implementation Scheme Optimization in AI-Enabled Embedded Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Xiaojuan Zhang ◽  
Yongheng Zhang ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Xiuyun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Embedded System ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
State Equation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Implementation Scheme

The demand of embedded artificial intelligence system for powerful computing power and diversified application scenarios will inevitably bring some new problems. This paper builds the system dynamics model of embedded system based on artificial intelligence (AI). By analyzing the causal relationship between the elements of the system dynamics model, the state equation is established, and the parameters are estimated and tested. At the same time, the influence of the model simulation experiment on the relevant factors is evaluated. The simulation results show that the proposed model is effective and efficient.

scholarly journals Abduction-Based Explanations for Machine Learning Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 1511-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Ignatiev ◽  
Nina Narodytska ◽  
Joao Marques-Silva
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Abductive Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Constraint Reasoning ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Applications Of Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The growing range of applications of Machine Learning (ML) in a multitude of settings motivates the ability of computing small explanations for predictions made. Small explanations are generally accepted as easier for human decision makers to understand. Most earlier work on computing explanations is based on heuristic approaches, providing no guarantees of quality, in terms of how close such solutions are from cardinality- or subset-minimal explanations. This paper develops a constraint-agnostic solution for computing explanations for any ML model. The proposed solution exploits abductive reasoning, and imposes the requirement that the ML model can be represented as sets of constraints using some target constraint reasoning system for which the decision problem can be answered with some oracle. The experimental results, obtained on well-known datasets, validate the scalability of the proposed approach as well as the quality of the computed solutions.

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