scholarly journals Model-Based Planning and Delivery of Mass Vaccination Campaigns against Infectious Disease: Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1460
Author(s):  
Dauda Ibrahim ◽  
Zoltán Kis ◽  
Kyungjae Tak ◽  
Maria M. Papathanasiou ◽  
Cleo Kontoravdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Manufacturing Plants ◽  
Target Populations ◽  
Effective Delivery ◽  
Analysis Of Results ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
New Framework

Vaccination plays a key role in reducing morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases, including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, a comprehensive approach that allows the planning of vaccination campaigns and the estimation of the resources required to deliver and administer COVID-19 vaccines is lacking. This work implements a new framework that supports the planning and delivery of vaccination campaigns. Firstly, the framework segments and priorities target populations, then estimates vaccination timeframe and workforce requirements, and lastly predicts logistics costs and facilitates the distribution of vaccines from manufacturing plants to vaccination centres. The outcomes from this study reveal the necessary resources required and their associated costs ahead of a vaccination campaign. Analysis of results shows that by integrating demand stratification, administration, and the supply chain, the synergy amongst these activities can be exploited to allow planning and cost-effective delivery of a vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and demonstrates how to sustain high rates of vaccination in a resource-efficient fashion.

scholarly journals The urgency of resuming disrupted dog rabies vaccination campaigns: a modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amber Kunkel ◽  
Seonghye Jeon ◽  
Haim C. Joseph ◽  
Pierre Dilius ◽  
Kelly Crowdis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Human Rabies ◽  
Post Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
Program Costs ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

AbstractDog vaccination is a cost-effective approach to preventing human rabies deaths. In Haiti, the last nation-wide dog vaccination campaign occurred in 2018. We estimated the number of human lives that could be saved by resuming dog vaccination in 2021 compared to 2022 and compared the cost-effectiveness of these two scenarios. We modified a previously published rabies transmission and economic model to estimate trends in dog and human rabies cases in Haiti from 2005 to 2025, with varying assumptions about when dog vaccinations resume. We compared model outputs to surveillance data on human rabies deaths from 2005 to 2020 and animal rabies cases from 2018 to 2020. Model predictions and surveillance data both suggest a 5- to 8-fold increase in animal rabies cases occurred in Haiti’s capital city between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. Restarting dog vaccination in Haiti in 2021 compared to 2022 could save 285 human lives and prevent 6541 human rabies exposures over a five-year period. It may also decrease program costs due to reduced need for human post-exposure prophylaxis. These results show that interruptions in dog vaccination campaigns before elimination is achieved can lead to significant human rabies epidemics if not promptly resumed.

scholarly journals Stability Analysis of Mathematical Models of the Dynamics of Spread of Meningitis with the Effects of Vaccination, Campaigns and Treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-81
Author(s):  
Sulma Sulma ◽  
Syamsuddin Toaha ◽  
Kasbawati Kasbawati
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Meningitis is an infectious disease caused by bacteria, viruses, and protosoa and has the potential to cause an outbreak. Vaccination and campaign are carried out as an effort to prevent the spread of meningitis, treatment reduces the number of deaths caused by the disease and the number of infected people. This study aims to analyze and determine the stability of equilibrium point of the mathematical model of the spread of meningitis using five compartments namely susceptibles, carriers, infected without symptoms, infected with symptoms, and recovered with the effect of vaccination, campaign, and treatment. The results obtained from the analysis of the model that there are two equilibrium points, namely non endemic and endemic equilibrium points. If a certain condition is met then the non endemic equilibrium point will be asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations show that the spread of disease decreases with the influence of vaccination, campaign, and treatment.

scholarly journals More than a year after the onset of the CoVid-19 pandemic in the UK: lessons learned from a minimalistic model capturing essential features including social awareness and policy making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A Duran-Olivencia ◽  
Serafim Kalliadasis
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Social Awareness ◽  
Abrupt Increase ◽  
New Mutation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Waves

The number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections experienced an abrupt increase during the last quarter of 2020 in almost every European country. The phenomenological explanation offered was a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK. We use publicly available data in combination with a time-delayed controlled SIR model, which captures the effects of preventive measures and concomitant social response on the spreading of the virus. The model, which has a unique transmission rate, enables us to reproduce the waves of infection occurred in the UK. This suggests that the new SARS-CoV-2 UK variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findings reveal that the sudden surge in cases was in fact related to the relaxation of preventive measures and social awareness. We also simulate the combined effects of restrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating that lockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve; fully effective mitigation can only be achieved via a vigorous vaccination campaign. As a matter of fact, incorporating recent data about vaccine efficacy, our simulations advocate that the UK might have overcome the worse of the CoVid-19 pandemic, provided that the vaccination campaign maintains a rate of approximately 140k jabs per day.

scholarly journals Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-293
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Supply And Distribution ◽  
The Usa ◽  
People First ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

The first round of vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in early December of 2020 in a few countries. There are several vaccines, and each has a different efficacy and mechanism of action. Several countries, for example, the United Kingdom and the USA, have been able to develop consistent vaccination programs where a great percentage of the population has been vaccinated (May 2021). However, in other countries, a low percentage of the population has been vaccinated due to constraints related to vaccine supply and distribution capacity. Countries such as the USA and the UK have implemented different vaccination strategies, and some scholars have been debating the optimal strategy for vaccine campaigns. This problem is complex due to the great number of variables that affect the relevant outcomes. In this article, we study the impact of different vaccination regimens on main health outcomes such as deaths, hospitalizations, and the number of infected. We develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to focus on this important health policy issue. Thus, we are able to identify the optimal strategy regarding vaccination campaigns. We find that for vaccines with high efficacy (>70%) after the first dose, the optimal strategy is to delay inoculation with the second dose. On the other hand, for a low first dose vaccine efficacy, it is better to use the standard vaccination regimen of 4 weeks between doses. Thus, under the delayed second dose option, a campaign focus on generating a certain immunity in as great a number of people as fast as possible is preferable to having an almost perfect immunity in fewer people first. Therefore, based on these results, we suggest that the UK implemented a better vaccination campaign than that in the USA with regard to time between doses. The results presented here provide scientific guidelines for other countries where vaccination campaigns are just starting, or the percentage of vaccinated people is small.

Exploring the Benefits of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) and the Mechanism for Automated 5D BIM Quantification Process in Offsite Modular Construction

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tochukwu Moses ◽  
David Heesom ◽  
David Oloke ◽  
Martin Crouch
Keyword(s):  
Effective Means ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Modular Construction ◽  
Automated Quantification ◽  
Building Information ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Value Add ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level 2

The UK Construction Industry through its Government Construction Strategy has recently been mandated to implement Level 2 Building Information Modelling (BIM) on public sector projects. This move, along with other initiatives is key to driving a requirement for 25% cost reduction (establishing the most cost-effective means) on. Other key deliverables within the strategy include reduction in overall project time, early contractor involvement, improved sustainability and enhanced product quality. Collaboration and integrated project delivery is central to the level 2 implementation strategy yet the key protocols or standards relative to cost within BIM processes is not well defined. As offsite construction becomes more prolific within the UK construction sector, this construction approach coupled with BIM, particularly 5D automated quantification process, and early contractor involvement provides significant opportunities for the sector to meet government targets. Early contractor involvement is supported by both the industry and the successive Governments as a credible means to avoid and manage project risks, encourage innovation and value add, making cost and project time predictable, and improving outcomes. The contractor is seen as an expert in construction and could be counter intuitive to exclude such valuable expertise from the pre-construction phase especially with the BIM intent of äóÖbuild it twiceäó», once virtually and once physically. In particular when offsite construction is used, the contractoräó»s construction expertise should be leveraged for the virtual build in BIM-designed projects to ensure a fully streamlined process. Building in a layer of automated costing through 5D BIM will bring about a more robust method of quantification and can help to deliver the 25% reduction in overall cost of a project. Using a literature review and a case study, this paper will look into the benefits of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) and the impact of 5D BIM on the offsite construction process.

scholarly journals Gastrointestinal infections caused by consumption of raw drinking milk in England & Wales, 1992–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Adams ◽  
L. Byrne ◽  
J. Edge ◽  
A. Hoban ◽  
C. Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Food Standards ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Drinking Milk ◽  
Intestinal Infectious Disease

Abstract Systematic, national surveillance of outbreaks of intestinal infectious disease has been undertaken by Public Health England (PHE) since 1992. Between 1992 and 2002, there were 19 outbreaks linked to raw drinking milk (RDM) or products made using raw milk, involving 229 people; 36 of these were hospitalised. There followed an eleven-year period (2003–2013) where no outbreaks linked to RDM were reported. However, since 2014 seven outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157:H7 (n = 3) or Campylobacter jejuni (n = 4) caused by contaminated RDM were investigated and reported. Between 2014 and 2017, there were 114 cases, five reported hospitalisations and one death. The data presented within this review indicated that the risk of RDM has increased since 2014. Despite the labelling requirements and recommendations that children should not consume RDM, almost a third of outbreak cases were children. In addition, there has been an increase in consumer popularity and in registered RDM producers in the UK. The Food Standards Agency (FSA) continue to provide advice on RDM to consumers and have recently made additional recommendations to enhance existing controls around registration and hygiene of RDM producers.

scholarly journals Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Joanne Nixon ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Richard Wall
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Infected Sheep ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Psoroptes Ovis ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Sheep Scab ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a highly pathogenic contagious infection caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis. Following 21 years in which scab was eradicated in the UK, it was inadvertently reintroduced in 1972 and, despite the implementation of a range of control methods, its prevalence increased steadily thereafter. Recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactone treatments may further exacerbate control problems. A better understanding of the factors that facilitate its transmission are required to allow improved management of this disease. Transmission of infection occurs within and between contiguous sheep farms via infected sheep-to-sheep or sheep–environment contact and through long-distance movements of infected sheep, such as through markets. Methods A stochastic metapopulation model was used to investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the spatial pattern of outbreaks. A range of model scenarios were considered following the initial infection of a cluster of highly connected contiguous farms. Results Scab spreads between clusters of neighbouring contiguous farms after introduction but when long-distance movements are excluded, infection then self-limits spatially at boundaries where farm connectivity is low. Inclusion of long-distance movements is required to generate the national patterns of disease spread observed. Conclusions Preventing the movement of scab infested sheep through sales and markets is essential for any national management programme. If effective movement control can be implemented, regional control in geographic areas where farm densities are high would allow more focussed cost-effective scab management. Graphical Abstract

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